Classact
12-13-2007, 09:58 AM
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Long-term, the risks are obvious as the significance of the Hispanic vote continues to rise. But polling shows clearly why GOP politicians are choosing to live in the moment — and worry tomorrow about tomorrow.
A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll completed in early December found that while only 6 percent of Democrats say illegal immigration is “the top priority” for candidates, fully 23 percent of Republicans viewed it as “the top priority.”
Only national security issues concerned GOP voters more than illegal immigration, according to the poll.
“How high it is on the list of Republican priorities right now is remarkable. And it’s really not on the landscape of the Democratic side, despite the fact that immigration is an issue that divides both parties,” said Michael Dimock, associate director of research for the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.
“There are a number of Republicans who are not ‘build a wall, deport them all,’” Dimock continued. “And there are a number of Democrats who feel threatened by illegal immigration, particularly its economic and job impact.”
The nature of the illegal immigration debate may be more pervasive than other cultural issues, reaching deeply into concerns over national identity, law and cultural cohesion.
“It’s a question of ‘Who am I, what is this country supposed to be like?’” said Shanto Iyengar, a political scientist at Stanford University. “There is a long history of these kinds of appeals. Not only immigration, but you can put crime in this light.”
Iyengar drew comparisons to the infamous Willie Horton ads of the 1988 race, used by George H.W. Bush to undercut Michael Dukakis on crime.
“In the general election, this issue will play very dramatically in favor of Republicans,” Iyengar said. But he added that the salience of the illegal immigration issue depends on its place in the hierarchy of the coming general election debate.
A late October study by senior Democratic strategists Stan Greenberg, Al Quinlan and James Carville found that for independents — roughly a third of voters — the “top issue underlying the discontent is ‘our borders’ having been ‘left unprotected and illegal immigration’ growing.”
The issue was cited by four in 10 independents, which was nearly double the rate at which independents referenced the war in Iraq.
For now, however, the debate over illegal immigration is largely isolated to the Republican campaigns.
Republican Rep. Peter Roskam spent an hour one recent Saturday afternoon greeting voters outside a Jewel grocery store in Wood Dale, Ill. The message was overwhelmingly unified: Crack down on illegal immigration.
“It completely eclipses Iraq,” Roskam said.
Immigration is regularly the first topic raised during town hall meetings or conference calls with constituents, said Ohio Rep. Steve Chabot. “It’s the first thing they want to talk about.”
And the first thing many Republican candidates want to talk about in a year when there are other topics about which they would prefer to change the subject.http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1207/7375.html
Read the entire article and decide if this is going to be the central issue leading up to the election...
Page 2
Long-term, the risks are obvious as the significance of the Hispanic vote continues to rise. But polling shows clearly why GOP politicians are choosing to live in the moment — and worry tomorrow about tomorrow.
A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll completed in early December found that while only 6 percent of Democrats say illegal immigration is “the top priority” for candidates, fully 23 percent of Republicans viewed it as “the top priority.”
Only national security issues concerned GOP voters more than illegal immigration, according to the poll.
“How high it is on the list of Republican priorities right now is remarkable. And it’s really not on the landscape of the Democratic side, despite the fact that immigration is an issue that divides both parties,” said Michael Dimock, associate director of research for the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.
“There are a number of Republicans who are not ‘build a wall, deport them all,’” Dimock continued. “And there are a number of Democrats who feel threatened by illegal immigration, particularly its economic and job impact.”
The nature of the illegal immigration debate may be more pervasive than other cultural issues, reaching deeply into concerns over national identity, law and cultural cohesion.
“It’s a question of ‘Who am I, what is this country supposed to be like?’” said Shanto Iyengar, a political scientist at Stanford University. “There is a long history of these kinds of appeals. Not only immigration, but you can put crime in this light.”
Iyengar drew comparisons to the infamous Willie Horton ads of the 1988 race, used by George H.W. Bush to undercut Michael Dukakis on crime.
“In the general election, this issue will play very dramatically in favor of Republicans,” Iyengar said. But he added that the salience of the illegal immigration issue depends on its place in the hierarchy of the coming general election debate.
A late October study by senior Democratic strategists Stan Greenberg, Al Quinlan and James Carville found that for independents — roughly a third of voters — the “top issue underlying the discontent is ‘our borders’ having been ‘left unprotected and illegal immigration’ growing.”
The issue was cited by four in 10 independents, which was nearly double the rate at which independents referenced the war in Iraq.
For now, however, the debate over illegal immigration is largely isolated to the Republican campaigns.
Republican Rep. Peter Roskam spent an hour one recent Saturday afternoon greeting voters outside a Jewel grocery store in Wood Dale, Ill. The message was overwhelmingly unified: Crack down on illegal immigration.
“It completely eclipses Iraq,” Roskam said.
Immigration is regularly the first topic raised during town hall meetings or conference calls with constituents, said Ohio Rep. Steve Chabot. “It’s the first thing they want to talk about.”
And the first thing many Republican candidates want to talk about in a year when there are other topics about which they would prefer to change the subject.http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1207/7375.html
Read the entire article and decide if this is going to be the central issue leading up to the election...