The coming economy?

[truthmatters]

Forecast: U.S. dollar could plunge 90 pct

http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Business/2007/11/19/forecast_us_dollar_could_plunge_90_pct/4876


Published: Nov. 19, 2007 at 2:16 PM
RHINEBECK, N.Y., Nov. 19 (UPI) -- A financial crisis will likely send the U.S. dollar into a free fall of as much as 90 percent and gold soaring to $2,000 an ounce, a trends researcher said.

"We are going to see economic times the likes of which no living person has seen," Trends Research Institute Director Gerald Celente said, forecasting a "Panic of 2008."

"The bigger they are, the harder they'll fall," he said in an interview with New York's Hudson Valley Business Journal.

Celente -- who forecast the subprime mortgage financial crisis and the dollar's decline a year ago and gold's current rise in May -- told the newspaper the subprime mortgage meltdown was just the first "small, high-risk segment of the market" to collapse.

[avatar4321]

And what financial crisis will cause this? The extensive Christmas shopping?

[Gaffer]

Anything that looks like it will destroy this country she reports on it gleefully. The only way the economy will tank like that is if a lib get elected to the presidency.

[April15]

Anything that looks like it will destroy this country she reports on it gleefully. The only way the economy will tank like that is if a lib get elected to the presidency.Get ready for a tanked economy cause the libs will win.

[Classact]

I've been concerned about the dollar value for some time now... When Allen Greenspan departed the Euro was about 1.22 to the dollar and now it's around 1.47... The reason I watch the Euro/dollar rate is because I recall the fluctuation of currency exchange and how it affected me directly when I was stationed or traveling in Europe... For an American soldier stationed in Germany now life must really suck! Gas for Germans should be around $6-7 a gallon but for a soldier to change US dollars to local at an exchange rate of 1.47 to get 1 Euro that would mean very expensive gas, beer, food or anything on the economy... On the other hand everything made in America is dirt cheap to Europeans... They can travel to the US and drop tons of Euros or import American goods cheaper than they buy German goods.

On the bright side if the dollar plunges it hurts the entire world, it would cause a world depression so it is in the interest of all major powers, to include oil exporters and the world bank to assure the plunge doesn't happen.

The value of money around the world is based on what? It is only paper and nothing more... the same applies to the Euro or any other form of modern currency... It is make believe in value and only functions because you can't carry around gold, silver or trade chickens or pig for stuff at the store.

I think the reason the dollar is sliding in value is because of the sub prime mess along with import - export imbalance... another factor is America's stark absence of saving in recent years... our savings is very low and many people have removed a lot of "common savings" from their home by taking loans on the built up equity in second mortgages... We are spending way too much and saving way too little.

How do we fix this... it will fix itself because someone will try to start a war and the world will run to the protection of the only military power.

[PostmodernProphet]

Get ready for a tanked economy cause the libs will win.

well, at least we agree on the results, even if we don't share the glee......

[PostmodernProphet]

I've been concerned about the dollar value for some time now... When Allen Greenspan departed the Euro was about 1.22 to the dollar and now it's around 1.47... The reason I watch the Euro/dollar rate is because I recall the fluctuation of currency exchange and how it affected me directly when I was stationed or traveling in Europe... For an American soldier stationed in Germany now life must really suck! Gas for Germans should be around $6-7 a gallon but for a soldier to change US dollars to local at an exchange rate of 1.47 to get 1 Euro that would mean very expensive gas, beer, food or anything on the economy... On the other hand everything made in America is dirt cheap to Europeans... They can travel to the US and drop tons of Euros or import American goods cheaper than they buy German goods.

On the bright side if the dollar plunges it hurts the entire world, it would cause a world depression so it is in the interest of all major powers, to include oil exporters and the world bank to assure the plunge doesn't happen.

The value of money around the world is based on what? It is only paper and nothing more... the same applies to the Euro or any other form of modern currency... It is make believe in value and only functions because you can't carry around gold, silver or trade chickens or pig for stuff at the store.

I think the reason the dollar is sliding in value is because of the sub prime mess along with import - export imbalance... another factor is America's stark absence of saving in recent years... our savings is very low and many people have removed a lot of "common savings" from their home by taking loans on the built up equity in second mortgages... We are spending way too much and saving way too little.

How do we fix this... it will fix itself because someone will try to start a war and the world will run to the protection of the only military power.

I'm not sure we want to fix it.....there was an article a few weeks ago saying the European businesses were bitching because every time the Euro moved up a point against the dollar it was costing them a million Euros a year in sales.....having your currency be the world standard is NOT good for your country's economy......it stagnates your industrial output......

[truthmatters]

Can anyone point to the glee in anyones post?

This is one of the problems the people on this site seem to have, they read evil into everything any democrat does or says. Can you ever see anything without your hate glasses?

[Mr. P]

Can anyone point to the glee in anyones post?

This is one of the problems the people on this site seem to have, they read evil into everything any democrat does or says. Can you ever see anything without your hate glasses?

Can you give your opinion on your op..or are ya just gonna flap them lips? IDIOT.

[April15]

well, at least we agree on the results, even if we don't share the glee......
I was being a little tongue in cheek. I don't see a real change in economic growth regardless who is president. Corporations and the fed have more control than the president does.
What I see is a result of deregulation that propagated creative financing to sell more mortgages so brokers would make more money. This in turn placed a false value on the real estate. With the new found money values were artificially inflated with expectations of increased valuations to justify the risk of creative financing.
We are in a period of weakness now in the world economy and with no real manufacturing capacity to rely on for our basic needs, moving out of any recessionary trend will be hard.

[truthmatters]

This economy we are about to enter will not be very pretty. Hating and spewing hate will not change that in any way.

[Classact]

I'm not sure we want to fix it.....there was an article a few weeks ago saying the European businesses were bitching because every time the Euro moved up a point against the dollar it was costing them a million Euros a year in sales.....having your currency be the world standard is NOT good for your country's economy......it stagnates your industrial output......Quite the opposite... What does America export? Commodities like corn, wheat, soybeans, copper... and we export movies, technology, wine and then the list grows short... But, in short if American wine only costs $0.75 in France and is equal in value to French wine that cost say $20.00 then the French wineries go out of business... If the Euro would stay high let's say it would cost $4 dollars for 1 Euro then world companies would flock to America and pay our workers $75.00 an hour to export cheap stuff to Europe... cheaper than Europe can produce it at that exchange rate.

[Mr. P]

This economy we are about to enter will not be very pretty. Hating and spewing hate will not change that in any way.

And you see hate in this thread...where? IDIOT!

[PostmodernProphet]

Quite the opposite... What does America export? Commodities like corn, wheat, soybeans, copper... and we export movies, technology, wine and then the list grows short...

and why is it that is all we export?.....because for the last forty years the world's economy was pegged to the dollar.....and everything was cheaper everywhere else.......

[mrg666]

for the past 20 yrs (untill now ) the $ as pissed by most currences
people havent given this post chance to be true or false yet they are jumping on it with fangs out .

[Classact]

and why is it that is all we export?.....because for the last forty years the world's economy was pegged to the dollar.....and everything was cheaper everywhere else.......Where did you get the last forty years from? America has always been the standard for world currencies. Of course we export more than what I mentioned but the true worth of a nations currency is the value of natural resources, the personal financial affairs of citizens and its populations education.

Nations with poor natural resources such as Japan, Korea and others must make up the difference in other ways to justify the value of their currencies.

The main reason some things are less expensive from other areas are the negatives in education, natural resources and personal finance of their citizens.

[diuretic]

I was being a little tongue in cheek. I don't see a real change in economic growth regardless who is president. Corporations and the fed have more control than the president does.
What I see is a result of deregulation that propagated creative financing to sell more mortgages so brokers would make more money. This in turn placed a false value on the real estate. With the new found money values were artificially inflated with expectations of increased valuations to justify the risk of creative financing.
We are in a period of weakness now in the world economy and with no real manufacturing capacity to rely on for our basic needs, moving out of any recessionary trend will be hard.

As I understand it the president controls government spending. That being so then the financial shape of the US government is the responsibility of the president. What is the current financial state of the US government? Will that affect the US economy?

[Classact]

As I understand it the president controls government spending. That being so then the financial shape of the US government is the responsibility of the president. What is the current financial state of the US government? Will that affect the US economy?The US government debt doesn't weigh as heavy as the domestic issues of future buying because the government has limits but the people have few limits. Federal debt is bought and apparently people are still buying it... but private debt in comparison to wealth is perhaps a thousand times as bad as the government debt. As long as people buy the government debt there is confidence that they will be paid back... on the other hand the private citizen can and may go bankrupt.

[PostmodernProphet]

Where did you get the last forty years from?

/shrugs....the extent of my personal experience.....prior to that I was a kid not paying attention to the world around me......


the true worth of a nations currency is the value of natural resources

a bit simplistic isn't that?.....is there a nation left in the world that pings it's currency value to some physical standard?....in any event, since the gold standard was eliminated a long time ago, the current decline in the US dollar, or it's prior supremacy, wasn't based upon the value of natural resources......

[JohnDoe]

I've been concerned about the dollar value for some time now... When Allen Greenspan departed the Euro was about 1.22 to the dollar and now it's around 1.47... The reason I watch the Euro/dollar rate is because I recall the fluctuation of currency exchange and how it affected me directly when I was stationed or traveling in Europe... For an American soldier stationed in Germany now life must really suck! Gas for Germans should be around $6-7 a gallon but for a soldier to change US dollars to local at an exchange rate of 1.47 to get 1 Euro that would mean very expensive gas, beer, food or anything on the economy... On the other hand everything made in America is dirt cheap to Europeans... They can travel to the US and drop tons of Euros or import American goods cheaper than they buy German goods.

On the bright side if the dollar plunges it hurts the entire world, it would cause a world depression so it is in the interest of all major powers, to include oil exporters and the world bank to assure the plunge doesn't happen.

The value of money around the world is based on what? It is only paper and nothing more... the same applies to the Euro or any other form of modern currency... It is make believe in value and only functions because you can't carry around gold, silver or trade chickens or pig for stuff at the store.

I think the reason the dollar is sliding in value is because of the sub prime mess along with import - export imbalance... another factor is America's stark absence of saving in recent years... our savings is very low and many people have removed a lot of "common savings" from their home by taking loans on the built up equity in second mortgages... We are spending way too much and saving way too little.

How do we fix this... it will fix itself because someone will try to start a war and the world will run to the protection of the only military power.

When we were stationed in Italy, the Military gave us coupons to buy our gasoline at USA discounted rates....so gasoline prices were never an issue and groceries and other necessities like food were bought at the Commisary or the Base Exchange for our incidentals.

Though I can see how beer and liquor off base would affect the soldiers in the wallet as you mentioned.

[truthmatters]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071124/apfn_doomsday_scenario.html?.v=1??


Im really not feeling too happy about where this economy is going. Some of us tried to warn about the sub prime thing and the coming Bubble and were called infantile names for it. There should have been something done to police the massive abuse of these types of loans. Now as foretold they will come back to haunt this economy for years. A little bit of oversite would have gone a long way.






"Some 2 million homeowners hold $600 billion of subprime adjustable-rate mortgage loans, known as ARMs, that are due to reset at higher amounts during the next eight months. Subprime loans are those made to people with poor credit. Not all these mortgages are in trouble, but homeowners who default or fall behind on payments could cause an economic shock of a type never seen before.

Some of the nation's leading economic minds lay out a scenario that is frightening. Not only would the next wave of the mortgage crisis force people out of their homes, it might also spiral throughout the economy.

The already severe housing slump would be exacerbated by even more empty homes on the market, causing prices to plunge by up to 40 percent in once-hot real estate spots such as California, Nevada and Florida. Builders like Chicago's Neumann Homes, which filed for bankruptcy protection this month, could go under. The top 10 global banks, which repackage loans into exotic securities such as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, could suffer far greater write-offs than the $75 billion already taken this year."

[Classact]

When we were stationed in Italy, the Military gave us coupons to buy our gasoline at USA discounted rates....so gasoline prices were never an issue and groceries and other necessities like food were bought at the Commisary or the Base Exchange for our incidentals.

Though I can see how beer and liquor off base would affect the soldiers in the wallet as you mentioned.Yes it was the same in Germany... the coupons removed the 17% German sales tax from the purchase price of gas... if you wanted to buy a very large item on the economy you could apply for a similar coupon to buy a grandfather clock for example to avoid the tax... but still the exchange rate now would make it very expensive to even try to use such coupons.

[Trigg]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071124/apfn_doomsday_scenario.html?.v=1??


Im really not feeling too happy about where this economy is going. Some of us tried to warn about the sub prime thing and the coming Bubble and were called infantile names for it. There should have been something done to police the massive abuse of these types of loans. Now as foretold they will come back to haunt this economy for years. A little bit of oversite would have gone a long way.






"Some 2 million homeowners hold $600 billion of subprime adjustable-rate mortgage loans, known as ARMs, that are due to reset at higher amounts during the next eight months. Subprime loans are those made to people with poor credit. Not all these mortgages are in trouble, but homeowners who default or fall behind on payments could cause an economic shock of a type never seen before.

Some of the nation's leading economic minds lay out a scenario that is frightening. Not only would the next wave of the mortgage crisis force people out of their homes, it might also spiral throughout the economy.

The already severe housing slump would be exacerbated by even more empty homes on the market, causing prices to plunge by up to 40 percent in once-hot real estate spots such as California, Nevada and Florida. Builders like Chicago's Neumann Homes, which filed for bankruptcy protection this month, could go under. The top 10 global banks, which repackage loans into exotic securities such as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, could suffer far greater write-offs than the $75 billion already taken this year."

With black Friday profits up 8% over last year, plenty of people apparently arn't as worried as you are. They are also probably the people who should be worried. Suffering in the US thread.

I'm not going to get into things with you here though since on the other thread you completely disregarded personnal responsibility.

[truthmatters]

Some 2 million homeowners hold $600 billion of subprime adjustable-rate mortgage loans, known as ARMs, that are due to reset at higher amounts during the next eight months.

You can ignore these facts and insult me but it does not make the reality go away now does it?

[Said1]

Some 2 million homeowners hold $600 billion of subprime adjustable-rate mortgage loans, known as ARMs, that are due to reset at higher amounts during the next eight months.

You can ignore these facts and insult me but it does not make the reality go away now does it?

Ok. I believe you. I forgot about happened to my ex and I when we went to buy a house 7 yrs ago. The choice to take the loan is still up to the individual, however. We were STRONGLY advised not to take an absurdly low rate, after being laughed out of the bank (figuratively of course) six months prior. The house was sold out from under us, then we broke up. So, no harm no foul. :laugh2:

[avatar4321]

Some 2 million homeowners hold $600 billion of subprime adjustable-rate mortgage loans, known as ARMs, that are due to reset at higher amounts during the next eight months.

You can ignore these facts and insult me but it does not make the reality go away now does it?

They shouldn't have taken out the loans then. no one was forcing them into bad loans. They can read and shop around. In fact, most of them probably took the loans thinking that the interest rates might go down. Its a gamble they will lose if the rates go up.

The fact is, this won't really take money out of the economy at all. People who default on mortgages will go into forclosure. the properties would be sold, most of the money will likely be made back off the property and someone else will have bought the homes. There may be individuals hurt by this, but I am not sure the fall out will be as great as you think.

[Roadhouse158]

As I understand it the president controls government spending. That being so then the financial shape of the US government is the responsibility of the president. What is the current financial state of the US government? Will that affect the US economy?

Government spending is an aggreement between congress and the president. Both branches have to agree on the budget to get it to pass. The president is the one that can veto yes; but congress is the one that gives the president the bills to actually sign...That's why I love when there are different parties in the two branches...If one party has all the control then hardly anything is questioned...Look at when the republicans took control of congress when Clinton was president, and look at the situation now....There aren't many outlandish things getting passed. When one party runs it all however, spend, spend, spend....