On Wednesday, Day Before Kamala Will Be Crowned

[Kathianne]

https://instapundit.com/667686/


August 18, 2024EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY:







zerohedge
@zerohedge
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will downward revise jobs for the April 2023-March 2024 period by up to 1 million. This means that all "beats" recorded in the past year will have been misses and the US job market is in far worse shape than the admin would admit.
12:07 PM · Aug 18, 2024
·
3.4M
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CA already did theirs:

https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1825357772931907584/a1iKvAYS?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Kathianne]

Seriously, Trump is going to have to work really, really hard to lose now.

[Black Diamond]

I was already thinking this coming week could be a turning point for us.

[Kathianne]

Still a trickle:

https://u.today/us-bureau-of-labor-statistics-job-data-revision-could-spark-crypto-market-turmoil


US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Data Revision Could Spark Crypto Market Turmoil

Upcoming NonFarm Payrolls revision could shake up crypto market more than any recent economic report




News
Mon, 19/08/2024 - 9:38


0:00
US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Data Revision Could Spark Crypto Market Turmoil


Next week, the U.S. non-farm payroll (NFP) data for July 2024 is anticipated to be revised by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which could have a revolutionary effect on the cryptocurrency market. Although the majority of traders concentrate on standard economic indicators such as FOMC meetings or CPI figures, the impending NFP revision could have a more significant effect on the markets, including cryptocurrency prices.


Between 600,000 and 1,000,000 jobs could be eliminated, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs analysts, who expect a significant downward revision of the preliminary NFP data. This revision may indicate that the labor market was far weaker than previously thought, which could cause the market to move significantly.




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Such a revision would have extensive consequences. Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy would probably change if the updated NFP data reveals a significant decline in employment. At present, the market is factoring in slight reductions in interest rates for the upcoming year. However, more aggressive rate cuts earlier than anticipated could result from a weaker-than-expected job market.


As investors reassess their plans, this change in expectations may cause a sell-off in risky assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. This might cause volatility in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin to rise. Because of the well-established relationship between cryptocurrencies and traditional financial markets, any notable changes in the latter are likely to have an impact on the former. If Goldman Sachs' analysis of the revised NFP data turns out to be accurate, Bitcoin may test lower support levels and even go back to the $57,000 range.

[Gunny]

Seriously, Trump is going to have to work really, really hard to lose now.Give him a chance. He's trying :laugh:

[Kathianne]

Still a trickle:

https://u.today/us-bureau-of-labor-statistics-job-data-revision-could-spark-crypto-market-turmoil


A bit more:

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/08/the-daily-chart-dont-look-now-but-2.php


Posted onAugust 19, 2024bySteven Hayward (https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/author/steven) in The Daily Chart (https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/category/the-daily-chart)The Daily Chart: Don’t Look Now, But. . .

Right now the markets are awaiting news from two fronts: how many more lunatic ideas will Kamala Harris propose this week, and will Fed chair Jerome Powell signal the all-clear for an interest rate cut at the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting. He may have issued a market-moving statement before the pixels on this post arrive to your screen through the series of magic tubes we call The Internet.

Meanwhile, signs of economic trouble continue to intrude on all the happy talk of a “soft-landing” for a slowing economy. Here are two that caught my eye today. Bloomberg reports: Flights, Hotels and Parks Are All Flashing Travel Warning Signs.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GVSd82EWkAA462l?format=png&name=900x900

https://www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-19-at-10.59.23%E2%80%AFAM-600x320.png (https://www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-19-at-10.59.23%E2%80%AFAM.png)
If this is correct it means the job growth numbers of the last six months were mostly bogus. And that consumer who is still spending—at least at Walmart? Well:

https://finimize.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffinimize-img.imgix.net%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fchivas-assets.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%252Fstatic%252Fimages%252FA_-_2024-08-12T130051.445.original.jpg%3Fixlib%3Dpython-3.1.2%26s%3Dfccf21d01fa4dcce10838dd2d1269111&w=3840&q=75

[Kathianne]

A word of caution from Goldman Sachs, 'all those illegals that are working, aren't being counted...' That's what I'm reading here, fj1200

Economics isn't my jam. Math is hard.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/benchmark-payrolls-revision-likely-to-overstate-weakness-of-jobs-market-goldman-sachs-432SI-3577797


Benchmark payrolls revision likely to overstate weakness of jobs market: Goldman SachsSam Boughedda


Published 08/19/2024, 12:25 PM
Updated 08/19/2024, 12:27 PM




Goldman Sachs analysts cautioned that the upcoming benchmark revision to U.S. nonfarm payrolls is likely to overstate the weakness in the labor market.


The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to announce a significant downward revision next week, potentially lowering payroll growth by 600,000 to 1 million jobs for the year ending in March 2024.


However, Goldman Sachs argues that this revision could be misleading.


According to the investment bank's analysts, the revision is expected to lower monthly payroll growth from 250,000 to approximately 165,000 200,000, but this adjustment may be exaggerated.


The analysts suggest that the “true” pace of job growth during this period is likely closer to 200,000-240,000 per month. They attribute this discrepancy to two main factors.


First, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which is used for the revision, largely excludes unauthorized immigrants.


Goldman Sachs believes this could lead to an erroneous downward revision of 300,000-500,000 jobs, as unauthorized immigrants have significantly contributed to employment growth.


Second, Goldman Sachs explains that the QCEW itself has consistently been revised upwards in recent years. Since 2019, the preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision has been below the final revision by an average of 100,000 jobs.


"Our earlier analysis suggests that benchmarking to the QCEW could erroneously revise 300-500k working unauthorized immigrants out of payroll growth over the year ending in March 2024," they write.


Goldman Sachs warns that the upcoming benchmark revision may paint an unduly negative picture of the labor market, overstating the degree of weakness in job growth over the past year.

[fj1200]

A word of caution from Goldman Sachs, 'all those illegals that are working, aren't being counted...' That's what I'm reading here, @fj1200 (http://www.debatepolicy.com/member.php?u=728)

Economics isn't my jam. Math is hard.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/benchmark-payrolls-revision-likely-to-overstate-weakness-of-jobs-market-goldman-sachs-432SI-3577797

That is more math than I want to be involved in. I think the key to looking at those numbers is the trend and it sounds like that they're having trouble deciding what the trend is. Who's in, who's out, and who needs to be counted and when you dump a bunch of illegal immigrants at the level that they have over the past number of years then the old ways of counting are cracking. The markets are down but not overly so tells me that the markets were already aware of these restatements and the traders are shrugging it off.