Kathianne
06-30-2024, 11:06 PM
Macron's 'snap election' didn't work out well. Then again, the French are funny, the 'right' came in first; the liberals second, and Macron's moderates 'third.'
https://www.dw.com/en/french-polls-far-right-in-the-lead-but-path-forward-unclear/a-69522092
French polls: Far right in the lead but path forward unclearElla Joyner
1 hour ago1 hour ago
The far-right National Rally delivered its best results in the first round of voting in a high-stakes parliamentary election. But after President Emmanuel Macron’s gamble, the end destination is anyone’s guess.
https://p.dw.com/p/4hhs4
National Rally's Marine Le Pen, after 1st round of voting
France's far-right National Rally is leading the first round of voting with about a third of the voteImage: FRANCOIS LO PRESTI/AFP
Basking in the glory of a 33.5% projected victory in the first round of French parliamentary elections on Sunday evening, youthful National Rally (RN) President Jordan Bardella used his first post-exit poll address to pitch himself as a serious statesperson who was more than just the poster boy for France's far right campaign.
"Next Sunday, if the French people award us an absolute majority to put the country back on its feet, I intend to be the prime minister of all the French people, listening to each and every one of them, respecting the opposition and mindful of national unity," the 28-year-old told a crowd in Paris.
The far right looks closer to power than at any time since the Nazi occupation of France during World War II, with Bardella angling to serve as prime minister in an awkward "cohabitation" with long-time centrist French President Emmanuel Macron until his term expires in 2027.
But Bardella's use of "if the French people'' carried a lot of pressure at this stage of the fight – he both gave people the power to choose their representatives and urged them to do so in his party's favor.
Going by present projections, the RN — which was founded in its original form by convicted racist Jean-Marie Le Pen — may well fall short of an absolute majority in the French National Assembly or France's lower house of parliament.
National Rally not far from absolute majority: journalist Thibaut Madelin
09:38
Strong showing for new leftist alliance, but not enough
Coming second in the polls, with a projected 28.5%, was the broad improvised left-wing coalition New Popular Front. The alliance, which comprises the center-left Socialists, Greens and communists, is led by hardliner Jean-Luc Melenchon of France Unbowed.
Macron’s centrists trailed third, with his pro-business, centrist alliance Together winning only 22% of the vote, according to initial count. While Macron's own position is not in peril (he was elected to a second term in office 2022), his big bet to call a snap election appears to have backfired.
After RN scored a stunning 31% in European Parliament elections in June compared to 14% for Macron's grouping, the president, who found himself trapped in a splintered parliament, threw down the gauntlet. The French public responded by voting for RN, as Sunday's projections show.
National exit polls show French far-right ahead: DW’s Lisa Louis
04:06
High turnout, high volatility
But under France's complicated two-step voting system, nothing is certain yet. In the 577 French voting districts, all candidates who scored more than 12.5% will move on to the second, definitive round of voting, unless one person scores more than 50% of the vote. In that case, they win a seat outright and there's no runoff election.
This time, high turnout (at a four-decade high of almost 70%) means that the next round of voting looks to be more volatile than usual, because many seats look set for three-way contests known as ‘triangulaires.'
To avoid splitting the vote against the far right, both NPF and Together have committed to strategically bow out of the race if their candidates finish in third place, letting the other move on to the second round to face off with RN on a stronger footing.
Macron renewed this call on Sunday. "Faced with National Rally, the time has come for a broad, clearly democratic and republican alliance for the second round," he said in a statement.
Melenchon and his political colleagues made similar commitments to team up against the far right, but whether everyone will stick to their promises remains to be seen.
Animosity all round
For Sophie Pornschlegel, an analyst from Europe Jacques Delors think tank, a lot rides on the NPF leftist bloc and the traditional right-wing Republicans party.
The position of the Republicans party, when it comes to RN, is less clear. Embattled party chief Eric Ciotti has been pushing his once-mighty party, which finished last place with 10% of the vote on Sunday, to team up with RN. Bardella also reached out to the Republicans in his address. But as Pornschlegel pointed out, the Republicans are fiercely divided over whether they should work with RN.
At the same time, some centrist voters will find it hard to vote for a coalition led by left-wing populist Melenchon, in seats where Macron's party pulls out because it came third, she points out.
How this all works:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/three-way-run-offs-horse-trading-what-happens-next-french-elections-2024-06-30/
Explainer: Three-way run-offs and horse-trading: what happens next in French elections?By Reuters
June 30, 20241:24 PM MSTUpdated 7 hours ago
Reaction to the first round results of the 2024 snap legislative elections
A protesters holds a French national flag as people gather to protest against the French far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally - RN) party, at the Place de la Republique following partial results in the first round of the early 2024 legislative elections, in Paris, France, June 30, 2024. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
PARIS, June 30 (Reuters) - Here's how the second round of France's parliamentary election on July 7 will work and the possible scenarios after exit polls showed Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party had won Sunday's first round.
HOW DOES IT WORK?
Elections for the 577 seats in France's National Assembly are a two-round process.
In constituencies where no candidate won outright in the first round, the top two candidates, as well as any candidate with more than 12.5% of the total number of registered voters in that constituency, move to a second round.
Whoever gets the most votes in the second round wins the seat.
The high turnout on Sunday means some 300 constituencies are now facing potential three-way run-offs which, in theory, favour the RN.
To prevent these three-way run-offs and block the RN, France's centre-right and centre-left politicians have long practiced what they call a "republican front," whereby the third-placed candidate drops out of the race and urges voters to rally behind the second-placed candidate.
All candidates through to the run-off have until Tuesday evening to decide whether to stand down or run the second round.
HOW IS IT LOOKING THIS TIME?
Many political leaders gave guidance to candidates and voters on Sunday evening.
President Emmanuel Macron urged a "wide-ranging rally behind republican and democratic" candidates for the second round, effectively guiding against both the far-right Nationaly Rally and the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party.
His former Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe, explicity called on the candidates from his party to drop out if they were in third position and rally behind candidates from the centre-left to the centre-right, excluding the RN and LFI.
On the left, the Socialist and LFI leaders also called on their third-placed candidates to drop out to block the RN.
The conservative Republicans party, which split ahead of the vote with a small number of its lawmakers joining forces with the RN, gave no guidance.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW?
The effectiveness of the "republican front" has weakened over the years, and many voters no longer heed the advice of party leaders.
It is also possible that candidates will refuse to drop out despite guidance from political HQs in Paris.
But talks over the next 48 hours will be crucial and could swing the results significantly, potentially deciding whether the RN reaches an outright majority in parliament or not.
That makes the result of the second round extraordinarily hard to predict. Even pollsters have urged caution on their own seat projections.
https://www.dw.com/en/french-polls-far-right-in-the-lead-but-path-forward-unclear/a-69522092
French polls: Far right in the lead but path forward unclearElla Joyner
1 hour ago1 hour ago
The far-right National Rally delivered its best results in the first round of voting in a high-stakes parliamentary election. But after President Emmanuel Macron’s gamble, the end destination is anyone’s guess.
https://p.dw.com/p/4hhs4
National Rally's Marine Le Pen, after 1st round of voting
France's far-right National Rally is leading the first round of voting with about a third of the voteImage: FRANCOIS LO PRESTI/AFP
Basking in the glory of a 33.5% projected victory in the first round of French parliamentary elections on Sunday evening, youthful National Rally (RN) President Jordan Bardella used his first post-exit poll address to pitch himself as a serious statesperson who was more than just the poster boy for France's far right campaign.
"Next Sunday, if the French people award us an absolute majority to put the country back on its feet, I intend to be the prime minister of all the French people, listening to each and every one of them, respecting the opposition and mindful of national unity," the 28-year-old told a crowd in Paris.
The far right looks closer to power than at any time since the Nazi occupation of France during World War II, with Bardella angling to serve as prime minister in an awkward "cohabitation" with long-time centrist French President Emmanuel Macron until his term expires in 2027.
But Bardella's use of "if the French people'' carried a lot of pressure at this stage of the fight – he both gave people the power to choose their representatives and urged them to do so in his party's favor.
Going by present projections, the RN — which was founded in its original form by convicted racist Jean-Marie Le Pen — may well fall short of an absolute majority in the French National Assembly or France's lower house of parliament.
National Rally not far from absolute majority: journalist Thibaut Madelin
09:38
Strong showing for new leftist alliance, but not enough
Coming second in the polls, with a projected 28.5%, was the broad improvised left-wing coalition New Popular Front. The alliance, which comprises the center-left Socialists, Greens and communists, is led by hardliner Jean-Luc Melenchon of France Unbowed.
Macron’s centrists trailed third, with his pro-business, centrist alliance Together winning only 22% of the vote, according to initial count. While Macron's own position is not in peril (he was elected to a second term in office 2022), his big bet to call a snap election appears to have backfired.
After RN scored a stunning 31% in European Parliament elections in June compared to 14% for Macron's grouping, the president, who found himself trapped in a splintered parliament, threw down the gauntlet. The French public responded by voting for RN, as Sunday's projections show.
National exit polls show French far-right ahead: DW’s Lisa Louis
04:06
High turnout, high volatility
But under France's complicated two-step voting system, nothing is certain yet. In the 577 French voting districts, all candidates who scored more than 12.5% will move on to the second, definitive round of voting, unless one person scores more than 50% of the vote. In that case, they win a seat outright and there's no runoff election.
This time, high turnout (at a four-decade high of almost 70%) means that the next round of voting looks to be more volatile than usual, because many seats look set for three-way contests known as ‘triangulaires.'
To avoid splitting the vote against the far right, both NPF and Together have committed to strategically bow out of the race if their candidates finish in third place, letting the other move on to the second round to face off with RN on a stronger footing.
Macron renewed this call on Sunday. "Faced with National Rally, the time has come for a broad, clearly democratic and republican alliance for the second round," he said in a statement.
Melenchon and his political colleagues made similar commitments to team up against the far right, but whether everyone will stick to their promises remains to be seen.
Animosity all round
For Sophie Pornschlegel, an analyst from Europe Jacques Delors think tank, a lot rides on the NPF leftist bloc and the traditional right-wing Republicans party.
The position of the Republicans party, when it comes to RN, is less clear. Embattled party chief Eric Ciotti has been pushing his once-mighty party, which finished last place with 10% of the vote on Sunday, to team up with RN. Bardella also reached out to the Republicans in his address. But as Pornschlegel pointed out, the Republicans are fiercely divided over whether they should work with RN.
At the same time, some centrist voters will find it hard to vote for a coalition led by left-wing populist Melenchon, in seats where Macron's party pulls out because it came third, she points out.
How this all works:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/three-way-run-offs-horse-trading-what-happens-next-french-elections-2024-06-30/
Explainer: Three-way run-offs and horse-trading: what happens next in French elections?By Reuters
June 30, 20241:24 PM MSTUpdated 7 hours ago
Reaction to the first round results of the 2024 snap legislative elections
A protesters holds a French national flag as people gather to protest against the French far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally - RN) party, at the Place de la Republique following partial results in the first round of the early 2024 legislative elections, in Paris, France, June 30, 2024. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
PARIS, June 30 (Reuters) - Here's how the second round of France's parliamentary election on July 7 will work and the possible scenarios after exit polls showed Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party had won Sunday's first round.
HOW DOES IT WORK?
Elections for the 577 seats in France's National Assembly are a two-round process.
In constituencies where no candidate won outright in the first round, the top two candidates, as well as any candidate with more than 12.5% of the total number of registered voters in that constituency, move to a second round.
Whoever gets the most votes in the second round wins the seat.
The high turnout on Sunday means some 300 constituencies are now facing potential three-way run-offs which, in theory, favour the RN.
To prevent these three-way run-offs and block the RN, France's centre-right and centre-left politicians have long practiced what they call a "republican front," whereby the third-placed candidate drops out of the race and urges voters to rally behind the second-placed candidate.
All candidates through to the run-off have until Tuesday evening to decide whether to stand down or run the second round.
HOW IS IT LOOKING THIS TIME?
Many political leaders gave guidance to candidates and voters on Sunday evening.
President Emmanuel Macron urged a "wide-ranging rally behind republican and democratic" candidates for the second round, effectively guiding against both the far-right Nationaly Rally and the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party.
His former Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe, explicity called on the candidates from his party to drop out if they were in third position and rally behind candidates from the centre-left to the centre-right, excluding the RN and LFI.
On the left, the Socialist and LFI leaders also called on their third-placed candidates to drop out to block the RN.
The conservative Republicans party, which split ahead of the vote with a small number of its lawmakers joining forces with the RN, gave no guidance.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW?
The effectiveness of the "republican front" has weakened over the years, and many voters no longer heed the advice of party leaders.
It is also possible that candidates will refuse to drop out despite guidance from political HQs in Paris.
But talks over the next 48 hours will be crucial and could swing the results significantly, potentially deciding whether the RN reaches an outright majority in parliament or not.
That makes the result of the second round extraordinarily hard to predict. Even pollsters have urged caution on their own seat projections.