Kathianne
03-08-2024, 11:11 AM
Obama->Trump->Biden->Trump or Biden, more likely Trump
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-trump-biden-codependency-theyre-so-weak-theyd-lose-to-virtually-anyone-else-6b9899fa?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
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OPINION
POTOMAC WATCH
The Trump-Biden Codependency
Both presumptive presidential nominees are so weak that they’d lose to virtually anyone else.
Kimberley A. Strassel
March 7, 2024 6:04 pm ET
OPINION: POTOMAC WATCH
WSJ Opinion Potomac Watch
The Stakes for Joe Biden’s State of the Union
The president and his predecessor are both a gnat’s breath away from clinching their renominations. Ms. Haley suspended her campaign against Mr. Trump after increasingly lackluster results that culminated in a Super Tuesday wipeout. Rep. Dean Phillips also called it quits after finishing third in his home state of Minnesota with only 8%, vs. 70% for Mr. Biden and 19% for “uncommitted.” Barring a Marianne Williamson revolution, the table is set for Biden-Trump 2024.
Mr. Trump’s quick and overwhelming victory is certainly a reflection of some strengths. He began this bid for the presidency with universal name recognition and a political operation that runs rings around his 2016 shop. Don’t think this nomination was won with rallies alone. Mindful of bruising tactical errors their predecessors made eight years ago, today’s Trump team spent enormous time cultivating loyalists at the state level, who—out of love or fear—rewarded Mr. Trump with endorsements and rule changes that stacked primaries and caucuses in the front-runner’s favor. Mr. Trump still works that star charm with a certain portion of the GOP base.
But his biggest advantage—his super not-so-secret weapon—is Joe Biden. If there’s one thing Republicans have in common, it is the desire to beat Democrats, and one of Ms. Haley’s strongest arguments for the nomination was that she was best positioned to administer a drubbing to the president. Her team hammered the theme, blasting out polls showing her trouncing Mr. Biden by double digits in swing states and potentially putting states in play that haven’t been competitive in decades.
Yet the argument fell flat. Mr. Biden is so weak that anyone vaguely resembling a Republican could potentially beat him. Would Mr. Trump have cruised to such an easy victory if polls before Iowa had shown Mr. Biden dominating him in a general election? Maybe not. Instead, Mr. Trump’s perceived general-election advantage allowed many Republican voters license to think beyond winning, to envision the added satisfaction of Mr. Trump in exacting revenge for the Democrats’ efforts to destroy him. It was Mr. Biden’s lawfaring Justice Department that kept Mr. Trump in the news and drew primary voters to his cause.
Mr. Biden’s weakness further allowed Mr. Trump to reduce the choice in the primary (and the coming general election) to a simple comparison: then vs. now. Mr. Trump spent the majority of his Super Tuesday victory speech weighing the good times of his recent presidency against today’s inflation, energy woes, crime, border chaos and international disorder. He didn’t offer much by way of a new agenda because he doesn’t have to. Were the country in relative stability, Mr. Trump might have been required in a primary to debate with Ms. Haley the GOP’s next, innovative chapter. Mr. Biden’s mess allows Mr. Trump to make an appeal to the past.
Similarly, Mr. Biden owes his own easy renomination primarily to Mr. Trump. The current president had an argument to make in 2020 that he was his party’s best bet to beat Mr. Trump, given the far-left or inexperienced alternatives. It’s now Mr. Trump’s weakness helping to keep the unpopular Mr. Biden in pole position. Democrats know they’d be toast if Republicans nominated a younger, less-encumbered candidate. But Mr. Trump’s own liabilities and peccadilloes give Mr. Biden at least a fighting chance, without the risks of an intraparty meltdown that a contested nomination would have brought.
Expect this codependency to continue to define the general election campaign. In 2000, George W. Bush and Al Gore duked it out over tax policy, “nation building” and the Clinton scandals. Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008 squared off on healthcare, Iraq and the global financial crisis. Even the 2016 Trump-Clinton race featured brawls over a Supreme Court vacancy and ObamaCare. Oh, for those days. Mr. Biden’s campaign theme: If you think I’m bad, he’ll be a hell of a lot worse. Mr. Trump’s: Right back at you.
If it seems curious that so many up-and-comers in both parties seem to be staging their own fights on the side (Gavin Newsom), or positioning themselves for the future (Ms. Haley), it’s because they suspected this might be the inertial outcome of the primary season. Some elections are transformative; some are way stations to a new era.
It’s still possible one or both parties will stage some form of nominee intervention, and even if they don’t, the outcome in November will matter to the future of the country. But let’s not expect an edifying debate. The race for the moment is one of relative unpopularity.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-trump-biden-codependency-theyre-so-weak-theyd-lose-to-virtually-anyone-else-6b9899fa?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
WSJ wants to hear from you. Take part in this short survey to help shape The Journal. Survey
OPINION
POTOMAC WATCH
The Trump-Biden Codependency
Both presumptive presidential nominees are so weak that they’d lose to virtually anyone else.
Kimberley A. Strassel
March 7, 2024 6:04 pm ET
OPINION: POTOMAC WATCH
WSJ Opinion Potomac Watch
The Stakes for Joe Biden’s State of the Union
The president and his predecessor are both a gnat’s breath away from clinching their renominations. Ms. Haley suspended her campaign against Mr. Trump after increasingly lackluster results that culminated in a Super Tuesday wipeout. Rep. Dean Phillips also called it quits after finishing third in his home state of Minnesota with only 8%, vs. 70% for Mr. Biden and 19% for “uncommitted.” Barring a Marianne Williamson revolution, the table is set for Biden-Trump 2024.
Mr. Trump’s quick and overwhelming victory is certainly a reflection of some strengths. He began this bid for the presidency with universal name recognition and a political operation that runs rings around his 2016 shop. Don’t think this nomination was won with rallies alone. Mindful of bruising tactical errors their predecessors made eight years ago, today’s Trump team spent enormous time cultivating loyalists at the state level, who—out of love or fear—rewarded Mr. Trump with endorsements and rule changes that stacked primaries and caucuses in the front-runner’s favor. Mr. Trump still works that star charm with a certain portion of the GOP base.
But his biggest advantage—his super not-so-secret weapon—is Joe Biden. If there’s one thing Republicans have in common, it is the desire to beat Democrats, and one of Ms. Haley’s strongest arguments for the nomination was that she was best positioned to administer a drubbing to the president. Her team hammered the theme, blasting out polls showing her trouncing Mr. Biden by double digits in swing states and potentially putting states in play that haven’t been competitive in decades.
Yet the argument fell flat. Mr. Biden is so weak that anyone vaguely resembling a Republican could potentially beat him. Would Mr. Trump have cruised to such an easy victory if polls before Iowa had shown Mr. Biden dominating him in a general election? Maybe not. Instead, Mr. Trump’s perceived general-election advantage allowed many Republican voters license to think beyond winning, to envision the added satisfaction of Mr. Trump in exacting revenge for the Democrats’ efforts to destroy him. It was Mr. Biden’s lawfaring Justice Department that kept Mr. Trump in the news and drew primary voters to his cause.
Mr. Biden’s weakness further allowed Mr. Trump to reduce the choice in the primary (and the coming general election) to a simple comparison: then vs. now. Mr. Trump spent the majority of his Super Tuesday victory speech weighing the good times of his recent presidency against today’s inflation, energy woes, crime, border chaos and international disorder. He didn’t offer much by way of a new agenda because he doesn’t have to. Were the country in relative stability, Mr. Trump might have been required in a primary to debate with Ms. Haley the GOP’s next, innovative chapter. Mr. Biden’s mess allows Mr. Trump to make an appeal to the past.
Similarly, Mr. Biden owes his own easy renomination primarily to Mr. Trump. The current president had an argument to make in 2020 that he was his party’s best bet to beat Mr. Trump, given the far-left or inexperienced alternatives. It’s now Mr. Trump’s weakness helping to keep the unpopular Mr. Biden in pole position. Democrats know they’d be toast if Republicans nominated a younger, less-encumbered candidate. But Mr. Trump’s own liabilities and peccadilloes give Mr. Biden at least a fighting chance, without the risks of an intraparty meltdown that a contested nomination would have brought.
Expect this codependency to continue to define the general election campaign. In 2000, George W. Bush and Al Gore duked it out over tax policy, “nation building” and the Clinton scandals. Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008 squared off on healthcare, Iraq and the global financial crisis. Even the 2016 Trump-Clinton race featured brawls over a Supreme Court vacancy and ObamaCare. Oh, for those days. Mr. Biden’s campaign theme: If you think I’m bad, he’ll be a hell of a lot worse. Mr. Trump’s: Right back at you.
If it seems curious that so many up-and-comers in both parties seem to be staging their own fights on the side (Gavin Newsom), or positioning themselves for the future (Ms. Haley), it’s because they suspected this might be the inertial outcome of the primary season. Some elections are transformative; some are way stations to a new era.
It’s still possible one or both parties will stage some form of nominee intervention, and even if they don’t, the outcome in November will matter to the future of the country. But let’s not expect an edifying debate. The race for the moment is one of relative unpopularity.