Kathianne
10-24-2023, 11:11 AM
Honestly. Maybe Emmer will not be last one standing? About no one dropping out, some may have to do with the upcoming court cases, especially when 4 co-defendants have taken plea deals in GA:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/trumps-lead-and-gop-decision-making
Trump's lead and GOP decision-makingby Byron York, Chief Political Correspondent
October 23, 2023 02:52 PM
TRUMP'S LEAD AND GOP DECISION-MAKING. Former President Donald Trump's support now stands at 59% among Republican voters nationwide in the 2024 presidential nomination race. His lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), still the second-place candidate in the race, is 46.3 points. Both Trump's support and the size of his lead are the biggest they have ever been.
After four indictments from federal and local prosecutors, plus a widely reported trial in a lawsuit by the New York attorney general — after all of that, Trump's lead is still inching higher. And that is affecting the thinking and decision-making going on in campaign offices all around the country, as well as on Capitol Hill.
The Republican majority in the House, of course, is still trying to elect a speaker. You don't have to be reminded that it is not going well. There are now at least nine candidates for the job, and public debate on the race is set to begin on Tuesday. Many critics are pointing out that seven of the nine voted to decertify the results of the 2020 election from Arizona and Pennsylvania on Jan. 6, 2021. That's not likely to have a big effect on the speaker contest. On that day, 58% of House Republicans voted against certifying the Arizona results, and 66% voted against certifying the Pennsylvania tally.
What will have more influence on GOP thinking is what Trump says about the contest. For example, the candidate seen as leading the speaker's race is House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN). But there have been many news reports that Trump has told allies he does not support Emmer's bid for speaker. It is not clear exactly what Trump has against Emmer, but Trump often goes after those he feels have not supported him enthusiastically enough. And Emmer was one of the two speaker candidates who did not vote to decertify the electoral results of Joe Biden's victory in Arizona and Pennsylvania. (The other is Rep. Austin Scott (R-GA).)
If Trump turns up the behind-the-scenes heat against Emmer, or if he goes fully public with it, what will happen then? It probably won't be good for Emmer's candidacy. And why is that? Because Trump's poll numbers are so huge. If Trump were in fifth place in the Republican presidential race, if he were not dominating every poll, he would have almost no say in the speaker's race. But Trump is just under 60% in the race, according to the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. And those national polls are made up of voters in specific states and congressional districts. Republican lawmakers know that.
Then there is the presidential race. Trump's opponents inside the GOP desperately want some of the candidates to quit to allow non-Trump Republicans to unite behind a single challenger to Trump. They used to want that challenger to be DeSantis. Now, many want the challenger to be Nikki Haley, who now stands 51.2 points behind Trump in the national polls.
Yes, the early state polls are closer. Haley is 40.8 points behind Trump in Iowa, 30.8 points behind Trump in New Hampshire, and 32.5 points behind Trump in her home state of South Carolina. But still: Those are big numbers.
Trump's unprecedented lead is having two effects on GOP thinking. The first effect is: It's over. There's no way anybody can beat him. The second effect is: It's still early. There's no way this can last. If you are a candidate, the temptation is to dismiss the first and embrace the second.
That's why we're not seeing the candidate withdrawals that some anti-Republicans have sought. If you're in the race and you're not Trump, the second way of thinking is so much more appealing: This can't last, and what I need to do is stay in the game long enough for things to change. Then, maybe, I'll have a chance.
...
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/trumps-lead-and-gop-decision-making
Trump's lead and GOP decision-makingby Byron York, Chief Political Correspondent
October 23, 2023 02:52 PM
TRUMP'S LEAD AND GOP DECISION-MAKING. Former President Donald Trump's support now stands at 59% among Republican voters nationwide in the 2024 presidential nomination race. His lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), still the second-place candidate in the race, is 46.3 points. Both Trump's support and the size of his lead are the biggest they have ever been.
After four indictments from federal and local prosecutors, plus a widely reported trial in a lawsuit by the New York attorney general — after all of that, Trump's lead is still inching higher. And that is affecting the thinking and decision-making going on in campaign offices all around the country, as well as on Capitol Hill.
The Republican majority in the House, of course, is still trying to elect a speaker. You don't have to be reminded that it is not going well. There are now at least nine candidates for the job, and public debate on the race is set to begin on Tuesday. Many critics are pointing out that seven of the nine voted to decertify the results of the 2020 election from Arizona and Pennsylvania on Jan. 6, 2021. That's not likely to have a big effect on the speaker contest. On that day, 58% of House Republicans voted against certifying the Arizona results, and 66% voted against certifying the Pennsylvania tally.
What will have more influence on GOP thinking is what Trump says about the contest. For example, the candidate seen as leading the speaker's race is House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN). But there have been many news reports that Trump has told allies he does not support Emmer's bid for speaker. It is not clear exactly what Trump has against Emmer, but Trump often goes after those he feels have not supported him enthusiastically enough. And Emmer was one of the two speaker candidates who did not vote to decertify the electoral results of Joe Biden's victory in Arizona and Pennsylvania. (The other is Rep. Austin Scott (R-GA).)
If Trump turns up the behind-the-scenes heat against Emmer, or if he goes fully public with it, what will happen then? It probably won't be good for Emmer's candidacy. And why is that? Because Trump's poll numbers are so huge. If Trump were in fifth place in the Republican presidential race, if he were not dominating every poll, he would have almost no say in the speaker's race. But Trump is just under 60% in the race, according to the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. And those national polls are made up of voters in specific states and congressional districts. Republican lawmakers know that.
Then there is the presidential race. Trump's opponents inside the GOP desperately want some of the candidates to quit to allow non-Trump Republicans to unite behind a single challenger to Trump. They used to want that challenger to be DeSantis. Now, many want the challenger to be Nikki Haley, who now stands 51.2 points behind Trump in the national polls.
Yes, the early state polls are closer. Haley is 40.8 points behind Trump in Iowa, 30.8 points behind Trump in New Hampshire, and 32.5 points behind Trump in her home state of South Carolina. But still: Those are big numbers.
Trump's unprecedented lead is having two effects on GOP thinking. The first effect is: It's over. There's no way anybody can beat him. The second effect is: It's still early. There's no way this can last. If you are a candidate, the temptation is to dismiss the first and embrace the second.
That's why we're not seeing the candidate withdrawals that some anti-Republicans have sought. If you're in the race and you're not Trump, the second way of thinking is so much more appealing: This can't last, and what I need to do is stay in the game long enough for things to change. Then, maybe, I'll have a chance.
...