General On Taiwan-2025

[Kathianne]

Gunny comment please:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/telling-the-truth-about-war-over-taiwan-general-michael-minihan-troops-china-military-power-memo-leak-11675023652?st=nym7u67s1ufjpmq&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink


Telling the Truth About Possible War Over TaiwanGen. Minihan shocks Washington by telling his troops to be ready to fight against China.
By The Editorial BoardFollow
Jan. 29, 2023 6:22 pm ET


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Soldiers rush after alighting from an assault amphibious vehicle during a military drill in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, Jan. 12.
PHOTO: DANIEL CENG/ASSOCIATED PRESS


Honesty is not the default policy in Washington these days, so the political and media classes were jolted this weekend by the leak of a private warning by a U.S. general telling his troops to prepare for a possible war with China over Taiwan in two years. Imagine: A warrior telling his troops to be ready for war.


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In an internal memo leaked to NBC News, Gen. Michael Minihan told his troops: “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025.” The general runs the Air Mobility Command, the Air Force’s tank-refueling operation, and he says in his memo that he wants his force to be “ready to fight and win in the first island chain” off the eastern coast of continental Asia. He called for taking more calculated risks in training.


The general’s document won’t be remembered for subtlety. One of his suggestions is that airmen with weapons qualifications start doing target practice with “unrepentant lethality.” Another tells airmen to get their affairs in order. This candor seems to have alarmed higher-ups at the Pentagon, and NBC quoted an unidentified Defense official as saying the general’s “comments are not representative of the department’s view on China.”


But while Gen. Minihan’s words may be blunt, his concern is broadly shared, or ought to be. U.S. Navy Adm. Phil Davidson told Congress in 2021 that he worried China was “accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States,” and could strike Taiwan before 2027. Gen. Minihan came to his post after a tour as deputy of Indo-Pacific Command. He like many others suggested that 2025 may be a ripe moment for Chinese President Xi Jinping to move. Taiwan and the U.S. both have presidential elections in 2024 that China may see as moments of weakness.


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No less than Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last year that Beijing was “determined to pursue reunification” with Taiwan “on a much faster timeline” than it had previously contemplated. Are war-fighters supposed to ignore that message as they prepare for their risky missions?


Gen. Minihan is doing his troops a favor by speaking directly about a war they might have to fight. A recent war game conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned that, in a conflict over Taiwan, “the scale of casualties” would “stagger a U.S. military that has dominated battlefields for a generation.” Gen. Minihan’s boom operators are accustomed to working in skies the U.S. controls. Tankers would be essential in a fight for Taiwan given the vast distance over the Pacific—and would be vulnerable to heavy losses.


Former naval officer Seth Cropsey explained on these pages last week that America isn’t investing in the ships and weapons stockpiles that would be required to support a long war in the Western Pacific. Such yawning gaps in U.S. preparedness make a decision by Beijing to invade or blockade the democratic island more likely. Preventing a war for Taiwan requires showing Beijing that the U.S. has the means and the will to fight and repel an invasion.


Whatever his rhetorical flourishes, Gen. Minihan seems to understand this, and what Americans should really worry about is that some of his political and military superiors don’t.

[Gunny]

@Gunny (http://www.debatepolicy.com/member.php?u=30) comment please:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/telling-the-truth-about-war-over-taiwan-general-michael-minihan-troops-china-military-power-memo-leak-11675023652?st=nym7u67s1ufjpmq&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Hmmm. First off, he's probably right. It is however odd for a commander to express his personal opinion to troops; especially, when identifying a specific enemy of the United States. Troops are supposed to be ready for war anytime, anyplace, without giving the enemy a specific/identifiable name for political/diplomatic reasons.

I would say Washington's/the Pentagon's reaction is understated. They're probably crapping their pants and waiting for any fallout Pooh sends their way. It is, IMO, a breach of protocol.

Commanders carry out assigned mission. Policy is made and disseminated by the chair polishers. He went out on a limb. Look for him to be relieved/reassigned, depending on how the brass overreacts.

[Kathianne]

Hmmm. First off, he's probably right. It is however odd for a commander to express his personal opinion to troops; especially, when identifying a specific enemy of the United States. Troops are supposed to be ready for war anytime, anyplace, without giving the enemy a specific/identifiable name for political/diplomatic reasons.

I would say Washington's/the Pentagon's reaction is understated. They're probably crapping their pants and waiting for any fallout Pooh sends their way. It is, IMO, a breach of protocol.

Commanders carry out assigned mission. Policy is made and disseminated by the chair polishers. He went out on a limb. Look for him to be relieved/reassigned, depending on how the brass overreacts.

My initial reaction was that he was toast in staying in position. So, I asked myself, 'Why would he do such a thing?' I answered myself, "Perhaps he cares more about his responsibilities and cannot reconcile those with the woke agenda he's now supposed to be pushing? There's a reevaluation of priorities for him?"

[Gunny]

My initial reaction was that he was toast in staying in position. So, I asked myself, 'Why would he do such a thing?' I answered myself, "Perhaps he cares more about his responsibilities and cannot reconcile those with the woke agenda he's now supposed to be pushing? There's a reevaluation of priorities for him?"

Sort of. There's something more to this than what has been stated. I mean that in regard to Gen Minihan. I think his concern is less with "woke agenda" and more toward readiness. His statement still goes against current admin's supremely arrogant, lackadaisical approach to military readiness. Here we are flirting with war on 2 fronts and I haven't seen one step taken by the WH to be prepared in any way. In fact, this Admin has done a lot to diminish our readiness the way it has handled energy, transportation, manpower, and logistics. Logistically, we're supplying Ukraine with weapons we aren't replacing, and selling oil from our strategic reserve with no readily available refill (not to mention price of oil is on the rise again).

Mission readiness is the concern of ANY commander. He could accomplish that without the "gut feeling" personal opinion. If purposefully leaked, IMO, it's a political statement. If not meant to be leaked, he obviously chose the wrong aides.

[Kathianne]

Sort of. There's something more to this than what has been stated. I mean that in regard to Gen Minihan. I think his concern is less with "woke agenda" and more toward readiness. His statement still goes against current admin's supremely arrogant, lackadaisical approach to military readiness. Here we are flirting with war on 2 fronts and I haven't seen one step taken by the WH to be prepared in any way. In fact, this Admin has done a lot to diminish our readiness the way it has handled energy, transportation, manpower, and logistics. Logistically, we're supplying Ukraine with weapons we aren't replacing, and selling oil from our strategic reserve with no readily available refill (not to mention price of oil is on the rise again).

Mission readiness is the concern of ANY commander. He could accomplish that without the "gut feeling" personal opinion. If purposefully leaked, IMO, it's a political statement. If not meant to be leaked, he obviously chose the wrong aides.

Ok. How is someone at his level, with such concerns, otherwise address them when most of his lateral officers, not too mention those above, are concerned with administration approval, not reality that may be upon us sooner than later?

[Kathianne]

Ok. How is someone at his level, with such concerns, otherwise address them when most of his lateral officers, not too mention those above, are concerned with administration approval, not reality that may be upon us sooner than later?
I love run on sentences. ;)

[Gunny]

Ok. How is someone at his level, with such concerns, otherwise address them when most of his lateral officers, not too mention those above, are concerned with administration approval, not reality that may be upon us sooner than later?

Honest answer? You address your issue to the next higher up in the chain of command and accept the generic response. If that doesn't suit you, you can go to the Inspector General, who works for DC not local command, and accept whatever answer they give you.

If you persist after that, plan on getting quietly shelved somewhere, then passed over for promotion. In cases like the Marine LtCol that publicly questioned leadership, you get publicly humiliated and shitcanned.

It's how the institution works.

[Kathianne]

Honest answer? You address your issue to the next higher up in the chain of command and accept the generic response. If that doesn't suit you, you can go to the Inspector General, who works for DC not local command, and accept whatever answer they give you.

If you persist after that, plan on getting quietly shelved somewhere, then passed over for promotion. In cases like the Marine LtCol that publicly questioned leadership, you get publicly humiliated and shitcanned.

It's how the institution works.

I get that, I really do. In this case, with the concurrent state of world and leadership, committing career suicide may be the best thing.

[Gunny]

I get that, I really do. In this case, with the concurrent state of world and leadership, committing career suicide may be the best thing.I don't know. His fate is now in the hands of political winds, not to mention the MSM's and how willing it is to throw this guy under the bus. I think we know the answer to that last.

Just guessing:

They have to get him off that island. No doubt Pooh has wind of this. His sitting right across the Strait would have to be unacceptable. First and easiest choice is recall him and have him quietly retire. If it becomes a full-blown international issue, they can relieve him of command (fire) him, publicly disgrace him and force him to retire or face court martial.

I doubt they are going to push/insist on the court martial unless he does. While a breach of protocol, it's relatively minor and would be hard to prove in court he meant anything other than what he has stated. I don't see anything unlawful in his directives. They would have to prove he intended any consequential political fallout.

I know when I was with III MAF on Okinawa, we drilled and drilled and more drills. Did a month in Korea doing more drills. We knew who the enemies were (China & N Korea). I just don't recall ever hearing "I believe ...." come from the CG. You prepared for situations, likely and unlikely. I was far enough down the totem pole I wasn't worried much about what anyone thought of my opinion of commies :) Was a different World then though.

[Gunny]

More info. Nothing about Minihan's fate. Haggling over what he said.

Something that occurred to me: What if Ping Pong invades Taiwan? He's fired the only bullet he has. Seems to me "the threat of" is a far greater weapon being used against us.

No doubt he expects to win. Staying the course until they are in a position to do so with little or no risk would be more in keeping with Chinese philosophy. Tossing threats at the Strait just keeps Taiwan and its allies in fear, and wasting a lot of resources China is not.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3840337-generals-memo-spurs-debate-could-china-invade-taiwan-by-2025/

[Kathianne]

Gunny

Now this:

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2023/02/09/us-general-were-ready-for-war-in-asia-n529430


US General: We're ready for war in AsiaJAZZ SHAW 12:31 PM on February 09, 2023


Maj. Gen. Joseph Ryan is the Commanding General of the U.S. Army’s 25th Infantry Division, based in Hawaii. He’s in the Philippines this week, meeting with some of his Asian counterparts and preparing for several weeks of scheduled military exercises with our allies in the region. He gave an interview to the Associated Press yesterday and seemed to fire a verbal broadside at China, declaring that America is “battle ready” and our allies will stand united if forced to do so by countries that have “decided they want to change the world order” in the western Pacific. This is the sort of blunt statement that usually leads to the Chinese Communist Party setting its hair on fire and probably making some of our allies in the region nervous as well.


American forces and their allies in Asia are ready for battle after years of joint combat exercises, a United States general said Wednesday, adding that Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine should serve as a warning to potential Asian aggressors like China and North Korea.


U.S. treaty allies like the Philippines, Japan and Australia, among others, “have shown that they will band together, that they will not stand for aggression from these nations that have decided they want to change the world order out here,” Maj. Gen. Joseph Ryan said.


Although Asia has no counterpart to NATO, the 30-nation military alliance whose mostly European members vow to defend each other against external attacks, a network of U.S. treaty alliances and defense partnerships upholding the international order provides a regional safeguard, he said.


At first glance, this might sound like the typical military attitude and an assurance from one of our top generals that the American military is ready to do their jobs. But at the same time, it also comes across as a saber-rattling, “red line in the sand” challenge to the CCP. That seemed to be confirmed when General Ryan followed up with the AP reporter by saying combat readiness exercises “hopefully would make potential aggressors think twice.”


If this were some sort of a dustup playing out on social media, this was the equivalent of Ryan saying, “f*** around and find out, Xi Jinping.”

...

[Gunny]

@Gunny (http://www.debatepolicy.com/member.php?u=30)

Now this:

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2023/02/09/us-general-were-ready-for-war-in-asia-n529430Interesting. I never doubted out military capability. I always doubt our political will.

Apparently someone has deemed it necessary to send a message to Pooh. China will throw a tantrum, like last time, after our forces leave. Problem for Pooh is, most of our forces participating in exercises in the area are stationed in the area.

Chinese media will do a full-tilt, double-down that will impress even our leftist MSM.

Just one take:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clATpNVfqnE