tailfins
12-16-2021, 04:32 PM
https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/the-democrats-hispanic-voter-problem-dfc
Its seems that Latino voters are noticing that the predicted mass deportations under Trump didn't happen. It was however noticed that the drug trafficking and gangs threatening states along the Rio Grande (Rio Bravo) were controlled under the Trump administration. Strike up a conversation with a random person at a bodega in your neighborhood and that's what you will likely hear.
1. In the most recent Wall Street Journal poll (https://www.wsj.com/articles/hispanic-voters-now-evenly-split-between-parties-wsj-poll-finds-11638972769), Hispanic voters were split evenly between Democrats and Republicans in the 2022 generic Congressional ballot. And in a 2024 hypothetical rematch between Trump and Biden, these voters favored Biden by only a single point. This is among a voter group that favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by 26 points according to Catalist (https://www.dropbox.com/s/ka9n5gzxwotfu1a/wh2020_public_release_crosstabs.xlsx?dl=0) (two party vote).2. In the same poll, Biden’s net approval rating among Hispanics was -12 (42 percent approval/54 percent disapproval), the latest in a string of poor approval ratings among Hispanics. Hispanics in the poll favor Republicans in Congress over Democrats on containing inflation and securing the border. They are strongly negative on the economy, with just 25 percent believing it is headed in the right direction, compared to 63 percent who believe it is headed in the wrong direction.
3. A recent 538 analysis (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-has-lost-support-across-all-groups-of-americans-but-especially-independents-and-hispanics/?fbclid=IwAR00CFILG92KwbjeZEiNpoGSW6mApI9o1ef1xBOG ZJe_TZSNYRI9YhJM4Jk) of aggregated poll data shows that, while Biden has lost support among all racial groups in the last 9 months, the decline has been sharpest among Hispanics.
4. In Texas, perhaps the Democrats’ most prized target for their theory of the case, Biden’s ratings among Hispanics have been dreadful. A September Dallas Morning News poll (https://www.scribd.com/document/526125317/The-Dallas-Morning-News-University-of-Texas-Tyler-poll?fbclid=IwAR0EJJ0rDhKaK2fxgQtD_8bmzMrDE3YfEGyq u4n99BiC38GDYV76AmywT8Q) had Biden's approval rating among Texas Hispanics at an anemic 35 percent vs. 54 percent disapproval--19 points underwater. His approval rating on handling immigration at the border was even worse--29 points underwater. The latter rating is similar to Biden’s rating on the same issue among Texas Hispanics in the more recent Texas Tribune poll (https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/7e993e10b2ed8c05eefdb117907d6feb/ut-tt-2021-11-crosstabs.pdf?_ga=2.22386235.1856322944.1639018283-936484136.1639018283).
Share (https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/the-democrats-hispanic-voter-problem-dfc?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share)
5. In the hotly-contested 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, according to the AP-NORC VoteCast survey (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-voter-analysis-virginia-governors-race) (more reliable than the highly flawed exit polls (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/10/dont-trust-exit-polls-this-explains-why/)), Democrat Terry McAuliffe actually lost the Latino vote and also lost ground among black and “other race’ (chiefly Asian) voters. This deterioration of nonwhite support also can be seen in analysis of precinct-level results (https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/exit-polls-tell-conflicting-stories).
6. In the 2020 election, Hispanics, after four years of Trump, gave him substantially more support than they did in 2016. According to Catalist (https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/ten-more-things-we-now-know-about), in 2020 Latinos had an amazingly large 16 point margin shift toward Trump. Among Latinos, Cubans did have the largest shifts toward Trump (26 points), but those of Mexican origin also had a 12 point shift and even Puerto Ricans moved toward Trump by 18 points.
7. Latino shifts toward Trump were widely dispersed geographically. Hispanic shifts toward Trump were not confined to Florida (28 points) and Texas (18 points) but also included states like Wisconsin (20 points), Nevada (https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/ten-things-we-now-know-about-wisconsin) (18 points), Pennsylvania (12 points), Arizona (10 points) and Georgia (8 points).
8. Pew validated voter data (https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/the-democrats-hispanic-voter-problem) indicate particularly poor performance for Biden among working class (noncollege) Hispanics, with these voters giving Trump a remarkable 41 percent of their vote in 2020. A strong working class Hispanic shift is consistent with detailed precinct-level analysis of the 2020 vote (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/20/us/politics/election-hispanics-asians-voting.html) in Hispanic (and Asian) neighborhoods released by the New York Times last December. These data assume special significance in light of the unusually heavy working class character of the Hispanic vote (around 80 percent).
9. You can even see the pro-Trump Hispanic shift in New York City. An excellent analysis by Matthew Thomas (https://vulgarmarxism.substack.com/p/queens-is-more-diverse-than-ever?fbclid=IwAR03gZTPjmd_ZHWQMuU1qs0Mb5D-Vvoc9xUaSZOyYDW6NBN7xg6oLuFoXNw) shows:
Precincts where at least 50% of residents are Hispanic swung toward Trump by 18 points, with a quarter of voters now backing him for reelection. The shift was even more pronounced in precincts where at least 75% of residents are Hispanic, which had a swing of 25 points toward Trump. Out of all the ethnic enclaves in Queens, Hispanic areas showed the largest movement away from Democrats in 2020, a result consistent with national patterns.
10. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Democrats have seriously erred by lumping Hispanics in with “people of color” and assuming they embraced the activism around racial issues that dominated so much of the political scene in 2020, particularly in the summer. This was a flawed assumption. The reality of the Hispanic population is that they are, broadly speaking, an overwhelmingly working class, economically progressive, socially moderate constituency that cares above all, about jobs, the economy and health care.
Its seems that Latino voters are noticing that the predicted mass deportations under Trump didn't happen. It was however noticed that the drug trafficking and gangs threatening states along the Rio Grande (Rio Bravo) were controlled under the Trump administration. Strike up a conversation with a random person at a bodega in your neighborhood and that's what you will likely hear.
1. In the most recent Wall Street Journal poll (https://www.wsj.com/articles/hispanic-voters-now-evenly-split-between-parties-wsj-poll-finds-11638972769), Hispanic voters were split evenly between Democrats and Republicans in the 2022 generic Congressional ballot. And in a 2024 hypothetical rematch between Trump and Biden, these voters favored Biden by only a single point. This is among a voter group that favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by 26 points according to Catalist (https://www.dropbox.com/s/ka9n5gzxwotfu1a/wh2020_public_release_crosstabs.xlsx?dl=0) (two party vote).2. In the same poll, Biden’s net approval rating among Hispanics was -12 (42 percent approval/54 percent disapproval), the latest in a string of poor approval ratings among Hispanics. Hispanics in the poll favor Republicans in Congress over Democrats on containing inflation and securing the border. They are strongly negative on the economy, with just 25 percent believing it is headed in the right direction, compared to 63 percent who believe it is headed in the wrong direction.
3. A recent 538 analysis (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-has-lost-support-across-all-groups-of-americans-but-especially-independents-and-hispanics/?fbclid=IwAR00CFILG92KwbjeZEiNpoGSW6mApI9o1ef1xBOG ZJe_TZSNYRI9YhJM4Jk) of aggregated poll data shows that, while Biden has lost support among all racial groups in the last 9 months, the decline has been sharpest among Hispanics.
4. In Texas, perhaps the Democrats’ most prized target for their theory of the case, Biden’s ratings among Hispanics have been dreadful. A September Dallas Morning News poll (https://www.scribd.com/document/526125317/The-Dallas-Morning-News-University-of-Texas-Tyler-poll?fbclid=IwAR0EJJ0rDhKaK2fxgQtD_8bmzMrDE3YfEGyq u4n99BiC38GDYV76AmywT8Q) had Biden's approval rating among Texas Hispanics at an anemic 35 percent vs. 54 percent disapproval--19 points underwater. His approval rating on handling immigration at the border was even worse--29 points underwater. The latter rating is similar to Biden’s rating on the same issue among Texas Hispanics in the more recent Texas Tribune poll (https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/7e993e10b2ed8c05eefdb117907d6feb/ut-tt-2021-11-crosstabs.pdf?_ga=2.22386235.1856322944.1639018283-936484136.1639018283).
Share (https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/the-democrats-hispanic-voter-problem-dfc?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share)
5. In the hotly-contested 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, according to the AP-NORC VoteCast survey (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-voter-analysis-virginia-governors-race) (more reliable than the highly flawed exit polls (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/10/dont-trust-exit-polls-this-explains-why/)), Democrat Terry McAuliffe actually lost the Latino vote and also lost ground among black and “other race’ (chiefly Asian) voters. This deterioration of nonwhite support also can be seen in analysis of precinct-level results (https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/exit-polls-tell-conflicting-stories).
6. In the 2020 election, Hispanics, after four years of Trump, gave him substantially more support than they did in 2016. According to Catalist (https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/ten-more-things-we-now-know-about), in 2020 Latinos had an amazingly large 16 point margin shift toward Trump. Among Latinos, Cubans did have the largest shifts toward Trump (26 points), but those of Mexican origin also had a 12 point shift and even Puerto Ricans moved toward Trump by 18 points.
7. Latino shifts toward Trump were widely dispersed geographically. Hispanic shifts toward Trump were not confined to Florida (28 points) and Texas (18 points) but also included states like Wisconsin (20 points), Nevada (https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/ten-things-we-now-know-about-wisconsin) (18 points), Pennsylvania (12 points), Arizona (10 points) and Georgia (8 points).
8. Pew validated voter data (https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/the-democrats-hispanic-voter-problem) indicate particularly poor performance for Biden among working class (noncollege) Hispanics, with these voters giving Trump a remarkable 41 percent of their vote in 2020. A strong working class Hispanic shift is consistent with detailed precinct-level analysis of the 2020 vote (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/20/us/politics/election-hispanics-asians-voting.html) in Hispanic (and Asian) neighborhoods released by the New York Times last December. These data assume special significance in light of the unusually heavy working class character of the Hispanic vote (around 80 percent).
9. You can even see the pro-Trump Hispanic shift in New York City. An excellent analysis by Matthew Thomas (https://vulgarmarxism.substack.com/p/queens-is-more-diverse-than-ever?fbclid=IwAR03gZTPjmd_ZHWQMuU1qs0Mb5D-Vvoc9xUaSZOyYDW6NBN7xg6oLuFoXNw) shows:
Precincts where at least 50% of residents are Hispanic swung toward Trump by 18 points, with a quarter of voters now backing him for reelection. The shift was even more pronounced in precincts where at least 75% of residents are Hispanic, which had a swing of 25 points toward Trump. Out of all the ethnic enclaves in Queens, Hispanic areas showed the largest movement away from Democrats in 2020, a result consistent with national patterns.
10. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Democrats have seriously erred by lumping Hispanics in with “people of color” and assuming they embraced the activism around racial issues that dominated so much of the political scene in 2020, particularly in the summer. This was a flawed assumption. The reality of the Hispanic population is that they are, broadly speaking, an overwhelmingly working class, economically progressive, socially moderate constituency that cares above all, about jobs, the economy and health care.