The Next Big Crisis - Coming Soon To A Store Near You!

[NightTrain]

I think the wise thing to do would be to do your Christmas shopping right now.

I have a freight background and I knew things were backed up... but this is way beyond what I knew. Costco warned about this about a month ago, IIRC. I think this will all come into sharp focus right about Black Friday time on a national level. It's not just the Longshoremen offloading the ships; it's also truck drivers & railroads overwhelmed and short on workers.

Combine that with a 28% increase of overseas inbound shipping... there's 66 monster container ships sitting off California right now with a 4-week estimated wait time to just unload. Chicago's rail terminals are swamped. Nevermind actually moving this freight inland to destination.

Let's assume that the mandates thing and firings doesn't multiply the problem - which they most certainly will - we're still in a world of hurt.

Things are about to get very weird, friends and neighbors.


https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2021/10/02/groups-warning-of-imminent-global-supply-chain-system-collapse-n450987

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10049621/amp/Cargo-ships-anchored-NY-LA-face-4-WEEK-wait-unload-amid-unprecedented-supply-chain-crisis.html?__twitter_impression=true

[Black Diamond]

May have to buy used stuff this Christmas.

[fj1200]

Or focus on the true meaning of Christmas.

[Gunny]

I think the wise thing to do would be to do your Christmas shopping right now.

I have a freight background and I knew things were backed up... but this is way beyond what I knew. Costco warned about this about a month ago, IIRC. I think this will all come into sharp focus right about Black Friday time on a national level. It's not just the Longshoremen offloading the ships; it's also truck drivers & railroads overwhelmed and short on workers.

Combine that with a 28% increase of overseas inbound shipping... there's 66 monster container ships sitting off California right now with a 4-week estimated wait time to just unload. Chicago's rail terminals are swamped. Nevermind actually moving this freight inland to destination.

Let's assume that the mandates thing and firings doesn't multiply the problem - which they most certainly will - we're still in a world of hurt.

Things are about to get very weird, friends and neighbors.


https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2021/10/02/groups-warning-of-imminent-global-supply-chain-system-collapse-n450987

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10049621/amp/Cargo-ships-anchored-NY-LA-face-4-WEEK-wait-unload-amid-unprecedented-supply-chain-crisis.html?__twitter_impression=true

Been watching this. If it makes you feel any better, China has the same problem at both ends. Backlogged habors in China and most of the good on those ships in LA and Long Beach are probably Chinese.

When he gets done pretending its not happening, wonder how Joe can screw this up even more?

[Gunny]

May have to buy used stuff this Christmas.


Or focus on the true meaning of Christmas.More likely we will have to go out and actually shop for presents out of existing stocks. That ought to cause some heart failure :laugh:

What's California's unemployment rate? And how much is CA paying people to stay home and not work?

[Black Diamond]

More likely we will have to go out and actually shop for presents out of existing stocks. That ought to cause some heart failure :laugh:

What's California's unemployment rate? And how much is CA paying people to stay home and not work?

That's what I am guessing the problem is although it seems to be affecting the whole nation. I had a layover in the Houston Airport and wait staff has been replaced by ipads with a menu at nearly every part of the terminal.
Heaven help you if you have a question about the menu. But you select everything on the iPad you want to eat and drink and then a waiter comes out and brings your beer and later your meal.

[Black Diamond]

Far as Biden screwing it up more, the Vax mandate may be enough to make it a catastrophe. People will get shit canned and move to companies with under 100 employees.

[NightTrain]

What's California's unemployment rate?


San Diego is rocking a 20% unemployment rate right now.





Far as Biden screwing it up more, the Vax mandate may be enough to make it a catastrophe. People will get shit canned and move to companies with under 100 employees.







Biden was asked about this recently :


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndWLTj9BFds

[Black Diamond]

:laugh:

[fj1200]

Far as Biden screwing it up more, the Vax mandate may be enough to make it a catastrophe. People will get shit canned and move to companies with under 100 employees.

I don't think he ever moved forward on that. He was just trying to distract from the Afg debacle at the time.

[Kathianne]

On the supply chain coming crisis: https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/477026/

[Black Diamond]

I don't think he ever moved forward on that. He was just trying to distract from the Afg debacle at the time.

Well theres something to be hopeful about.

[Gunny]

On the supply chain coming crisis: https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/477026/Shoes and exercise gear :uhoh:

Somebody better get on the damned ball :drillsarge:

[Black Diamond]

Shoes and exercise gear :uhoh:

Somebody better get on the damned ball :drillsarge:

Well they do more good than most other Christmas presents

[JakeStarkey]

We shop during the year (there are a lot of us) when good buys are available.

Electronics and exercise equipment will be good deals.

I like what I am seeing in watches, but with a cell, why?

[Gunny]

We shop during the year (there are a lot of us) when good buys are available.

Electronics and exercise equipment will be good deals.

I like what I am seeing in watches, but with a cell, why?My daughter's present is made in the USA. Ordering it today. Same with father and brother. The grandkids can get whatever :laugh:

The person that's a BITCH to shop for is me :whistling2:

[Juicer66]

Well theres something to be hopeful about.

Actually there is nothing that can be done to immediately change matters .

When farmers cannot even get produce picked ,they do not plant and/or have to let crops go bad .

When manufacturers are missing even a handful of key components the total system is wrecked -- lithium for batteries is the simplest example .

When containers are parked outside of ports , you cannot even sell what you technically have 'in stock'

When drivers are just unavailable , the whole system stalls .

Attempted corrective action increases product costs both direct and indirect which pushes inflation even higher .


A perfect storm ---- all engineered via a non existent pandemic .

Throw in millions short in the labour force as deaths and maimings rise and you have chaos .

[JakeStarkey]

The pandemic, of course, is real, and the inability to admit it means a person cannot see the real world.

Why?

[Juicer66]

More of your illiterate assertions .
You must read the 'Covid Bible', separate topic , part of which is shown below . Read and Learn .

There is no excuse for repeating Fake Information plus deliberate misinformation and effectively indulging in Hate Speech .

And any excuse based on Ignorance is no longer acceptable .









PART I: “COVID DEATHS” & MORTALITY

1. The survival rate of “Covid” is over 99%. Government medical experts went out of their way to underline, from the beginning , that the vast majority of the population are not in any danger from Covid.


Almost all studies on the infection-fatality ratio (IFR) of Covid have returned results between 0.04% and 0.5% (https://swprs.org/studies-on-covid-19-lethality/#age). Meaning Covid’s survival rate is at least 99.5%.

*
2. There has been NO unusual excess mortality. The press has called 2020 the UK’s “deadliest year since world war two”, but this is misleading because it ignores the massive increase in the population since that time. A more reasonable statistical measure of mortality is Age-Standardised Mortality Rate (ASMR):
https://off-guardian.org/wp-content/medialibrary/uk-age-standardised-mortality-rate-1943-2020-650x352.jpg?x42407 (https://off-guardian.org/wp-content/medialibrary/uk-age-standardised-mortality-rate-1943-2020.jpg?x42407)By this measure, 2020 isn’t even the worst year for mortality since 2000, In fact since 1943 only 9 years have been better than 2020.
Similarly, in the US the ASMR for 2020 is only at 2004 levels:
https://off-guardian.org/wp-content/medialibrary/us-mortality-1900-2020-age-adjusted-650x267.jpg?x42407 (https://off-guardian.org/wp-content/medialibrary/us-mortality-1900-2020-age-adjusted.jpg?x42407)For a detailed breakdown of how Covid affected mortality across Western Europe and the US click here (https://swprs.org/covid-19-mortality-overview/). What increases in mortality we have seen could be attributable to non-Covid causes [facts 7 (https://off-guardian.org/2021/09/22/30-facts-you-need-to-know-your-covid-cribsheet/#7), 9 (https://off-guardian.org/2021/09/22/30-facts-you-need-to-know-your-covid-cribsheet/#9) & 19 (https://off-guardian.org/2021/09/22/30-facts-you-need-to-know-your-covid-cribsheet/#19)].

*
3. “Covid death” counts are artificially inflated. Countries around the globe have been defining a “Covid death” as a “death by any cause within 28/30/60 days of a positive test”.
Healthcare officials from Italy, Germany, the UK, US, Northern Ireland and others have all admitted to this practice (https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/05/covid19-death-figures-a-substantial-over-estimate/):



Removing any distinction between dying of Covid, and dying of something else after testing positive for Covid will naturally lead to over-counting of “Covid deaths”. British pathologist Dr John Lee was warning of this “substantial over-estimate” (https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-understand-and-report-figures-for-covid-19-deaths-) as early as last spring. Other mainstream sources (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9279767/BEL-MOONEY-dad-died-chronic-illness-hes-officially-Covid-victim.html) have reported it (https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-no-one-can-ever-recover-from-covid-19-in-england), too.
Considering the huge percentage of “asymptomatic” Covid infections [14 (https://off-guardian.org/2021/09/22/30-facts-you-need-to-know-your-covid-cribsheet/#14)], the well-known prevalence of serious comorbidities [fact 4 (https://off-guardian.org/2021/09/22/30-facts-you-need-to-know-your-covid-cribsheet/#4)] and the potential for false-positive tests [fact 18 (https://off-guardian.org/2021/09/22/30-facts-you-need-to-know-your-covid-cribsheet/#18)], this renders the Covid death numbers an extremely unreliable statistic.

*
4. The vast majority of covid deaths have serious comorbidities. In March 2020, the Italian government published statistics showing 99.2% of their “Covid deaths” had at least one serious comorbidity (https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/23/italy-only-12-of-covid19-deaths-list-covid19-as-cause/).
These included cancer, heart disease, dementia, Alzheimer’s, kidney failure and diabetes (among others). Over 50% of them had three or more serious pre-existing conditions.
This pattern has held up in all other countries over the course of the “pandemic”. An October 2020 FOIA request to the UK’s ONS revealed less than 10% of the official “Covid death” count at that time (https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/covid19deathswithnounderlyinghealthconditionsbroke ndownbyage) had Covid as the sole cause of death.

*
5. Average age of “Covid death” is greater than the average life expectancy. The average age of a “Covid death” in the UK is 82.5 years (https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/averageageofthosewhohaddiedwithcovid19). In Italy it’s 86. Germany, 83. Switzerland, 86. Canada, 86. The US, 78, Australia, 82.
In almost all cases the median age of a “Covid death” (https://swprs.org/studies-on-covid-19-lethality/#age) is higher than the national life expectancy.
As such, for most of the world, the “pandemic” has had little-to-no impact on life expectancy. Contrast this with the Spanish flu, which saw a 28% drop in life expectancy in the US in just over a year. [source (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data-visualization/mortality-trends/index.htm)]

*
6. Covid mortality exactly mirrors the natural mortality curve. Statistical studies (https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196) from the UK and India (https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-021-06026-6) have shown that the curve for “Covid death” follows the curve for expected mortality almost exactly:
https://off-guardian.org/wp-content/medialibrary/1_rfqdUarlb3mIIhJv1muvQQ-650x489.png?x42407 (https://off-guardian.org/wp-content/medialibrary/1_rfqdUarlb3mIIhJv1muvQQ.png?x42407)https://off-guardian.org/wp-content/medialibrary/covid-deathrate-vs-normal-deathrate-650x398.jpg?x42407 (https://off-guardian.org/wp-content/medialibrary/covid-deathrate-vs-normal-deathrate.jpg?x42407)The risk of death “from Covid” follows, almost exactly, your background risk of death in general (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654).
The small increase for some of the older age groups can be accounted for by other factors.[facts 7 (https://off-guardian.org/2021/09/22/30-facts-you-need-to-know-your-covid-cribsheet/#7), 9 (https://off-guardian.org/2021/09/22/30-facts-you-need-to-know-your-covid-cribsheet/#9) & 19 (https://off-guardian.org/2021/09/22/30-facts-you-need-to-know-your-covid-cribsheet/#19)]

*
7. There has been a massive increase in the use of “unlawful” DNRs. Watchdogs and government agencies have reported huge increases in the use of Do Not Resuscitate Orders (DNRs) over the last twenty months.
In the US, hospitals considered “universal DNRs” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/25/coronavirus-patients-do-not-resucitate/)for any patient who tested positive for Covid, and whistleblowing nurses have admitted the DNR system was abused (https://off-guardian.org/2020/06/11/watch-perspectives-on-the-pandemic-9/) in New York.
In the UK there was an “unprecdented” rise (https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/unprecedented-number-of-dnr-orders-for-learning-disabilities-patients/7027480.article) in “illegal” DNRs (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-do-not-resuscitate-nhs-b1816413.html) for disabled people, GP surgeries sent out letters to non-terminal patients recommending they sign DNR orders, whilst other doctors signed “blanket DNRs” (https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/regulation/cqc-to-review-blanket-do-not-resuscitate-orders/) for entire nursing homes.
A study done by Sheffield Univerisity (https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/do-not-resuscitate-orders-were-common-patients-admitted-suspected-covid-19) found over one-third of all “suspected” Covid patients had a DNR attached to their file within 24 hours of hospital admission.
Blanket use of coerced or illegal DNR orders could account for any increases in mortality in 2020/21.[Facts 2 (https://off-guardian.org/2021/09/22/30-facts-you-need-to-know-your-covid-cribsheet/#2) & 6 (https://off-guardian.org/2021/09/22/30-facts-you-need-to-know-your-covid-cribsheet/#6)]

[Gunny]

The pandemic, of course, is real, and the inability to admit it means a person cannot see the real world.

Why?I can tell you this for sure ... the shortage of goods is real. At least for what I was after. I get my daughter a pair of NB 990s every year. Anyway, I usually get them in November, no problem. Not this year. NB doesn't have them. I finally ended up having to lower myself to Amazon shopping to get them, and even then couldn't get the color she usually likes. It's 4 Oct.

Guess I'm going to spend a couple of days getting Christmas done before Halloween this year. Looks like no last minute, "guy thing" shopping this year.

[jimnyc]

America Is Running Out of Everything

Is it just me, or does it feel like America is running out of everything?

I visited CVS last week to pick up some at-home COVID-19 tests. They’d been sold out for a week, an employee told me. So I asked about paper towels. “We’re out of those too,” he said. “Try Walgreens.” I drove to a Walgreens that had paper towels. But when I asked a pharmacist to fill some very common prescriptions, he told me the store had run out. “Try the Target up the road,” he suggested. Target’s pharmacy had the meds, but its front area was alarmingly barren, like the canned-food section of a grocery store one hour before a hurricane makes landfall.

This is the economy now. One-hour errands are now multi-hour odysseys. Next-day deliveries are becoming day-after-next deliveries. That car part you need? It’ll take an extra week, sorry. The book you were looking for? Come back in November. The baby crib you bought? Make it December. Eyeing a new home-improvement job that requires several construction workers? Haha, pray for 2022.

The U.S. economy isn’t yet experiencing a downturn akin to the 1970s period of stagflation. This is something different, and quite strange. Americans are settling into a new phase of the pandemic economy, in which GDP is growing but we’re also suffering from a dearth of a shocking array of things—test kits, car parts, semiconductors, ships, shipping containers, workers. This is the Everything Shortage.

The Everything Shortage is not the result of one big bottleneck in, say, Vietnamese factories or the American trucking industry. We are running low on supplies of all kinds due to a veritable hydra of bottlenecks.

Rest - https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/america-is-choking-under-an-e2-80-98everything-shortage-e2-80-99/ar-AAPeokg