Russ
11-19-2020, 08:55 PM
Has anyone else read the book Freakanomics? I read it some time ago. It is about a statistician that is able to do some amazing statistical analyses of large quantities of data and confirm theories of cause and effect between things you would never guess were related.
One episode regarding Chicago school districts a few years after No Child Left Behind had established a teacher incentive that rewarded teachers whose students got high scores in standardized tests. Teachers whose students did badly on the tests were regarded as bad teachers.
The statistician theorized that this gave teachers an incentive to cheat when giving their own students standardized tests. Since the teachers were the proctors for the test, they could conceivably fill in the correct answers for questions for students that ran out of time to finish the questions at the end. One of the things the statistician checked for was an unusually good string of answers at the end of a test. Checking the data a couple of years later, he was able to find that a small percentage of teacher’s classrooms fit his theorized statistical model just as predicted.
It strikes me that this might be the best way to analyze the election results. If I’m a poll worker that is a Democrat and is integrity-challenged, which is pretty much the same thing as just saying "Democrat", what is the likely way that I would attempt massive fraud? I’m thinking it would be to dump a ton of mail-in votes into the system when no one is looking. To mass produce the mail-in votes, I would crank out a ton of mail-in forms with Biden’s name checked and either the rest of the form blank or the rest of the form with identical with either all Dems down the line. The voter names would all be first-time voters. I’d introduce the ton of votes late in the evening of November 3rd, when hardly anyone is still around. And I’d only do it in swing states.
That is the statistical event to look for then. A bunch of mail-in votes from new voters, with a ridiculously heavy percentage going to Biden, and the rest of the voting form blank or all Dems. With this happening much more in swing states than it did in non swing states. And the votes tabulated on the night of November 3rd, after people had gone to bed.
Is this something we can see statistically in the voting results? From what I’ve heard, it sounds like yes. I would like to see the Freakonomics guys analyze the results and see if it fits a ‘rigged-election’ model.
One episode regarding Chicago school districts a few years after No Child Left Behind had established a teacher incentive that rewarded teachers whose students got high scores in standardized tests. Teachers whose students did badly on the tests were regarded as bad teachers.
The statistician theorized that this gave teachers an incentive to cheat when giving their own students standardized tests. Since the teachers were the proctors for the test, they could conceivably fill in the correct answers for questions for students that ran out of time to finish the questions at the end. One of the things the statistician checked for was an unusually good string of answers at the end of a test. Checking the data a couple of years later, he was able to find that a small percentage of teacher’s classrooms fit his theorized statistical model just as predicted.
It strikes me that this might be the best way to analyze the election results. If I’m a poll worker that is a Democrat and is integrity-challenged, which is pretty much the same thing as just saying "Democrat", what is the likely way that I would attempt massive fraud? I’m thinking it would be to dump a ton of mail-in votes into the system when no one is looking. To mass produce the mail-in votes, I would crank out a ton of mail-in forms with Biden’s name checked and either the rest of the form blank or the rest of the form with identical with either all Dems down the line. The voter names would all be first-time voters. I’d introduce the ton of votes late in the evening of November 3rd, when hardly anyone is still around. And I’d only do it in swing states.
That is the statistical event to look for then. A bunch of mail-in votes from new voters, with a ridiculously heavy percentage going to Biden, and the rest of the voting form blank or all Dems. With this happening much more in swing states than it did in non swing states. And the votes tabulated on the night of November 3rd, after people had gone to bed.
Is this something we can see statistically in the voting results? From what I’ve heard, it sounds like yes. I would like to see the Freakonomics guys analyze the results and see if it fits a ‘rigged-election’ model.