Kathianne
07-11-2020, 02:26 AM
Can't say I thought along these lines, but I can see the possibilities:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/China-talks-of-US-decoupling-and-a-divided-world
CHINA UP CLOSE
China talks of US decoupling and a divided world
Former official urges citizens to prepare for the worst-case scenario
KATSUJI NAKAZAWA, Nikkei senior staff writer
JULY 9, 2020 04:00 JST
TOKYO -- It has been a tense first week of July in the seas of Asia.
While two U.S. aircraft carriers, the USS Ronald Reagan and the USS Nimitz, launched hundreds of aircraft daily into the skies above the South China Sea, China was conducting naval exercises in the same sea. In a rare and symbolic move, the People's Liberation Army Navy also carried out live-fire drills in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea.
Amid the tensions, one published article has been the talk of the town in many Chinese circles. Written on the assumption that the novel coronavirus will disrupt China and the world for an extended period, the content is highly controversial.
The article predicts industrial supply chains being torn up, a China-U.S. decoupling and a world split into dollar and yuan economic blocs.
The author is Zhou Li, a 65-year-old former deputy head of the Chinese Communist Party's International Liaison Department, a division in charge of party-led diplomacy. His views notably differ from the official Chinese government line; they are also radical.
Zhou says Chinese must prepare:
1. For the deterioration of Sino-U.S. relations and the full escalation of the struggle.
2. To cope with shrinking external demand and a disruption of supply chains.
3. For a new normal of coexisting with the novel coronavirus pandemic over the long term.
4. To leave the dollar hegemony and gradually realize the decoupling of the yuan from the dollar.
5. For the outbreak of a global food crisis.
6. For a resurgence of international terrorism.
Zhou does not shy from painting a grim picture of the Chinese economy, and his wording clearly differs from that of official documents prepared by government bureaucrats.
"Many international economic organizations such as the International Monetary Fund have issued reports downgrading global economic growth this year to as much as minus 4.9%, the worst economic recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s," Zhou wrote.
The article goes on: "The order log at our exporters has been greatly reduced. Production at enterprises upstream and downstream has stalled. International transportation logistics have been blocked. Raw materials are lacking and plants are unable to deliver their products. This phenomenon is putting huge pressure on our stable growth and job security."
While not spelling it out, Zhou was hinting that China's current economic situation is so harsh that it too could post zero or negative growth.
It is precisely the "black swan" -- a serious incident that defies conventional wisdom and is unforeseen -- that President Xi Jinping has been warning about.
Furthermore, Zhou indicated that the yuan bloc is on its back foot. "The U.S. controls the main channel for international payment and clearing, namely through SWIFT," he wrote, noting that the international payment information of Chinese, Russian and Iranian companies is in Washington's hands.
Disrupted supply chains would inevitably deliver a blow to the 5G strategy of Chinese telecoms equipment maker Huawei.
If Zhou's predictions are correct, various future plans of Xi's would crumble.
...
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/China-talks-of-US-decoupling-and-a-divided-world
CHINA UP CLOSE
China talks of US decoupling and a divided world
Former official urges citizens to prepare for the worst-case scenario
KATSUJI NAKAZAWA, Nikkei senior staff writer
JULY 9, 2020 04:00 JST
TOKYO -- It has been a tense first week of July in the seas of Asia.
While two U.S. aircraft carriers, the USS Ronald Reagan and the USS Nimitz, launched hundreds of aircraft daily into the skies above the South China Sea, China was conducting naval exercises in the same sea. In a rare and symbolic move, the People's Liberation Army Navy also carried out live-fire drills in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea.
Amid the tensions, one published article has been the talk of the town in many Chinese circles. Written on the assumption that the novel coronavirus will disrupt China and the world for an extended period, the content is highly controversial.
The article predicts industrial supply chains being torn up, a China-U.S. decoupling and a world split into dollar and yuan economic blocs.
The author is Zhou Li, a 65-year-old former deputy head of the Chinese Communist Party's International Liaison Department, a division in charge of party-led diplomacy. His views notably differ from the official Chinese government line; they are also radical.
Zhou says Chinese must prepare:
1. For the deterioration of Sino-U.S. relations and the full escalation of the struggle.
2. To cope with shrinking external demand and a disruption of supply chains.
3. For a new normal of coexisting with the novel coronavirus pandemic over the long term.
4. To leave the dollar hegemony and gradually realize the decoupling of the yuan from the dollar.
5. For the outbreak of a global food crisis.
6. For a resurgence of international terrorism.
Zhou does not shy from painting a grim picture of the Chinese economy, and his wording clearly differs from that of official documents prepared by government bureaucrats.
"Many international economic organizations such as the International Monetary Fund have issued reports downgrading global economic growth this year to as much as minus 4.9%, the worst economic recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s," Zhou wrote.
The article goes on: "The order log at our exporters has been greatly reduced. Production at enterprises upstream and downstream has stalled. International transportation logistics have been blocked. Raw materials are lacking and plants are unable to deliver their products. This phenomenon is putting huge pressure on our stable growth and job security."
While not spelling it out, Zhou was hinting that China's current economic situation is so harsh that it too could post zero or negative growth.
It is precisely the "black swan" -- a serious incident that defies conventional wisdom and is unforeseen -- that President Xi Jinping has been warning about.
Furthermore, Zhou indicated that the yuan bloc is on its back foot. "The U.S. controls the main channel for international payment and clearing, namely through SWIFT," he wrote, noting that the international payment information of Chinese, Russian and Iranian companies is in Washington's hands.
Disrupted supply chains would inevitably deliver a blow to the 5G strategy of Chinese telecoms equipment maker Huawei.
If Zhou's predictions are correct, various future plans of Xi's would crumble.
...