Flattening the curve

[Evmetro]

I've noticed that many people associate "flattening the curve" with a decrease in the ultimate number of deaths that will occur, and that many associate a spike in the curve with an increase in the ultimate number of deaths. My understanding is that the curve represents the the number of cases or deaths occurring at the times specified on the charts, and that the curve is in no way connected to the number of people who will eventually become infected or die.

Part 2 of this clarification of what it means to flatten the curve is the notion that a flatter curve leads to a decrease in the ultimate or inevitable number of cases or deaths. I cannot find any information that supports such a notion. From what I understand, the approximate number of deaths and cases that will eventually occur by the time the dust settles will be the same, regardless of the shape of the curve. If anybody knows otherwise, I am interested in learning the truth.

[Kathianne]

I've noticed that many people associate "flattening the curve" with a decrease in the ultimate number of deaths that will occur, and that many associate a spike in the curve with an increase in the ultimate number of deaths. My understanding is that the curve represents the the number of cases or deaths occurring at the times specified on the charts, and that the curve is in no way connected to the number of people who will eventually become infected or die.

Part 2 of this clarification of what it means to flatten the curve is the notion that a flatter curve leads to a decrease in the ultimate or inevitable number of cases or deaths. I cannot find any information that supports such a notion. From what I understand, the approximate number of deaths and cases that will eventually occur by the time the dust settles will be the same, regardless of the shape of the curve. If anybody knows otherwise, I am interested in learning the truth.
Ultimately that's the truth. What it does miss though is the time bought to understand the virus better, more importantly to buy the time to understand what was working and what was not. It was thought that ventilators was the 'best practice' for seriously ill, in fact hyperbaric therapy was found to work better and faster. It was found that the longer people were hospitalized, the worse the outcome. Thus eventually home care was utilized whenever possible. Several medications were thought to help with symptoms and outcomes. Seems the jury is still out on those, but one may be very good if given earlier.

[Evmetro]

Ultimately that's the truth. What it does miss though is the time bought to understand the virus better, more importantly to buy the time to understand what was working and what was not. It was thought that ventilators was the 'best practice' for seriously ill, in fact hyperbaric therapy was found to work better and faster. It was found that the longer people were hospitalized, the worse the outcome. Thus eventually home care was utilized whenever possible. Several medications were thought to help with symptoms and outcomes. Seems the jury is still out on those, but one may be very good if given earlier.

Indeed, time is a variable in this, and I think this is a fantastic point. Maybe nothing changes the ultimate numbers over time, but time offers potential. If the means to actually reduce the ultimate number of infections or deaths becomes available before the end of the curve on the chart ends, the ultimate number would have potential to go down. On the flip side though, it is difficult to second guess mother nature. Stealing time from mother nature has potential to backfire...

[Kathianne]

Indeed, time is a variable in this, and I think this is a fantastic point. Maybe nothing changes the ultimate numbers over time, but time offers potential. If the means to actually reduce the ultimate number of infections or deaths becomes available before the end of the curve on the chart ends, the ultimate number would have potential to go down. On the flip side though, it is difficult to second guess mother nature. Stealing time from mother nature has potential to backfire...
Unintended consequences are always part and parcel.

[Evmetro]

Unintended consequences are always part and parcel.

I think this is the part of the equation that Drummond is missing.

[Kathianne]

I think this is the part of the equation that @Drummond (http://www.debatepolicy.com/member.php?u=2287) is missing.

I think there are lots of parts he's missing. LOL!