Kathianne
04-24-2020, 07:36 PM
Drummond. You have always raised good questions and challenges. Yesterday you may have upset some folks, with your comments about the Constitution and suicide. You kinda got me the other day with remarks about the Founders over much the same thing.
We don't get as much UK news as you seem to get US, but we do get some. Indeed the anti-Johnson bias is right there in the title, but it ebbs and flows through a rather long article. The thing is, I can read the difficulties the government faced, understand their struggle to do the right thing. Even in the end, figuring out how to cope with the 'worst economy since 1709!' Trust me, no matter how reticent, they are not going to wait until a vaccine appears. See the ending paragraphs :
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-04-24/coronavirus-uk-how-boris-johnson-s-government-let-virus-get-away
How the Alarm Went Off Too Late in Britain’s Virus Response
Britain had time. Academics, disease specialists and critics say the prime minister wasted it.
April 23, 2020, 9:00 PM MST Updated on April 24, 2020, 3:07 AM MST
On Monday, March 16, a secretive group of Britain’s top scientists, health experts and government officials gathered to discuss the unfolding coronavirus pandemic. They knew they had a problem.
For days, Prime Minister Boris Johnson had brushed aside a crescendo of calls from politicians and academics to close the country’s more than 30,000 schools. He had repeatedly refused, insisting that the scientific advice he was so publicly heeding showed such disruption wasn’t necessary.
But shocking new data modelling presented to those gathered in the gray government offices on London’s Victoria Street suggested the policy needed to change—and fast.
For two hours over takeaway cups of coffee, the members of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies debated the evidence showing transmission between children, parents and teachers was higher than they thought. Moreover, radical social distancing—the lockdown measures being put in place across much of Europe—would be needed very soon.
In that tense meeting, though, the concern was political. Among those present were Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, and Patrick Vallance, the government’s most senior scientific adviser. Flanking Johnson at press conferences broadcast live, they had become the public faces of Britain’s war with Covid-19. They agreed it was the right time to pursue the U-turn on school closures, though worried about a loss of credibility.
Now at the peak of the outbreak, the U.K. has just recorded its highest weekly death toll in 20 years and is failing in its hope of keeping fatalities below 20,000. Some university models suggest the U.K. could well experience the highest in-hospital death toll in Europe.
Amid shortages of vital medical kit, the government even sent a military plane to Turkey to bring back protective clothing for health workers. Johnson remains off work, recovering after the Covid-19 infection he caught a month ago left him fighting for his life in intensive care.
...
Yet the March 10-13 Cheltenham Festival, an annual horse racing meet, drew 250,000 attendees just after Italy imposed a national quarantine. A Champions League soccer match between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid was watched by 50,000 fans on March 11, the day the WHO declared Covid-19 a pandemic.
The government’s view was that people were more likely to catch the virus watching sports in a confined space such as a pub than in the open air. There was no national lockdown until March 23.
“As soon as it happened in China, there should have been an awareness that we needed to move swiftly,” said David King, the government’s chief scientific adviser from 2000 to 2007. “The actions should have been: get the ventilators in, get the protective gear in for the medical staff and we should have also got going on delivering the tests.”
Johnson encapsulated the British “keep calm and carry on” approach with his instruction to “wash your hands” while singing “Happy Birthday” twice. At the beginning of March, the 55-year-old premier proudly boasted of “shaking hands with everybody” during a visit to a hospital with coronavirus patients, while washing his hands regularly. On April 6, he was admitted to intensive care after failing to shake off the virus.
...
The next day, Vallance provoked an outcry by suggesting the government’s aim was to acquire “some degree of herd immunity,” in which as much as 60% of the population—40 million people—would become infected. The government now insists herd immunity was never official policy, but on the same day that Vallance made his explosive remark, Hancock’s actions suggested otherwise.
The health secretary dialed into a conference call for Group of Seven countries as governments across the world sought to coordinate their responses and share their experiences. Hancock asked the Italian representative if Italy was also working on a herd immunity plan.
The Italian representative was blunt: Allowing the virus to run riot would result in thousands of excess deaths and there was way too much uncertainty about the nature of the virus to be sure that such a gamble would even work. Hancock was shocked. The damage was done. Medical experts accused Johnson of failing to act soon enough.
Dropping widespread testing ran counter to WHO advice, and experience elsewhere. In South Korea, where contact tracing is in place, the government managed to contain the outbreak to a much lower level than in most European nations. By halting the tracing of people in the U.K. who had contact with patients who had tested positive, those without symptoms were able to keep spreading the virus.
Three days after Hancock’s G-7 call came the loudest alarm bell of all. On March 16, a team at Imperial College London, led by researcher Neil Ferguson, warned that Britain could face 250,000 deaths, with the health service inundated, if it did not take more aggressive steps to suppress the virus.
That day, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, known as SAGE and whose members and minutes aren’t disclosed publicly, met in London to decide on school closures and wider lockdown measures.
Johnson ordered the first phase of social distancing, telling the public to work from home where possible and not to meet friends in pubs and restaurants. The virus was spreading far faster than expected. The U.K. did not have the time it thought it had.
...
The good news is that although the U.K. is forecast to have the highest number of deaths in Europe, the rise in cases is slowing, suggesting projections could be revised downward. Demand for ventilators hasn’t exceeded capacity.
Yet by the time Johnson imposed the lockdown, on March 23, the U.K. had recorded 335 deaths, fewer than the 463 toll in Italy when it ordered its quarantine, though more than three times the number of fatalities in France (91) and Germany (94) when they told people to stay at home.
The delay in imposing distancing measures hurt the U.K., along with the fact that London is a busy international metropolis, said Ali Mokdad, a professor at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
“The delay in retrospect was a mistake,” Mokdad said. “It’s like a deck of cards, and you have to play the cards you are dealt. Yes, England is at a disadvantage being a hub for business and with people coming from everywhere, but then you have to be more aggressive with restrictions.”
...
One minister, who declined to be identified when discussing internal politics, said the lockdown had worked too well for the health of the economy. “The problem is that compliance with the rules has been too much,” the minister said. “We didn’t say ‘don’t work.’ We said ‘stay home, but work away from home if you can’t work at home.’”
Having been attacked for acting too late, Johnson himself is now reluctant to ease the social distancing measures, fearing that moving too soon could unleash a devastating second wave that would overwhelm the NHS. Whether guided by the science or not, the political risk of such a second peak might prove too great.
...
We don't get as much UK news as you seem to get US, but we do get some. Indeed the anti-Johnson bias is right there in the title, but it ebbs and flows through a rather long article. The thing is, I can read the difficulties the government faced, understand their struggle to do the right thing. Even in the end, figuring out how to cope with the 'worst economy since 1709!' Trust me, no matter how reticent, they are not going to wait until a vaccine appears. See the ending paragraphs :
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-04-24/coronavirus-uk-how-boris-johnson-s-government-let-virus-get-away
How the Alarm Went Off Too Late in Britain’s Virus Response
Britain had time. Academics, disease specialists and critics say the prime minister wasted it.
April 23, 2020, 9:00 PM MST Updated on April 24, 2020, 3:07 AM MST
On Monday, March 16, a secretive group of Britain’s top scientists, health experts and government officials gathered to discuss the unfolding coronavirus pandemic. They knew they had a problem.
For days, Prime Minister Boris Johnson had brushed aside a crescendo of calls from politicians and academics to close the country’s more than 30,000 schools. He had repeatedly refused, insisting that the scientific advice he was so publicly heeding showed such disruption wasn’t necessary.
But shocking new data modelling presented to those gathered in the gray government offices on London’s Victoria Street suggested the policy needed to change—and fast.
For two hours over takeaway cups of coffee, the members of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies debated the evidence showing transmission between children, parents and teachers was higher than they thought. Moreover, radical social distancing—the lockdown measures being put in place across much of Europe—would be needed very soon.
In that tense meeting, though, the concern was political. Among those present were Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, and Patrick Vallance, the government’s most senior scientific adviser. Flanking Johnson at press conferences broadcast live, they had become the public faces of Britain’s war with Covid-19. They agreed it was the right time to pursue the U-turn on school closures, though worried about a loss of credibility.
Now at the peak of the outbreak, the U.K. has just recorded its highest weekly death toll in 20 years and is failing in its hope of keeping fatalities below 20,000. Some university models suggest the U.K. could well experience the highest in-hospital death toll in Europe.
Amid shortages of vital medical kit, the government even sent a military plane to Turkey to bring back protective clothing for health workers. Johnson remains off work, recovering after the Covid-19 infection he caught a month ago left him fighting for his life in intensive care.
...
Yet the March 10-13 Cheltenham Festival, an annual horse racing meet, drew 250,000 attendees just after Italy imposed a national quarantine. A Champions League soccer match between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid was watched by 50,000 fans on March 11, the day the WHO declared Covid-19 a pandemic.
The government’s view was that people were more likely to catch the virus watching sports in a confined space such as a pub than in the open air. There was no national lockdown until March 23.
“As soon as it happened in China, there should have been an awareness that we needed to move swiftly,” said David King, the government’s chief scientific adviser from 2000 to 2007. “The actions should have been: get the ventilators in, get the protective gear in for the medical staff and we should have also got going on delivering the tests.”
Johnson encapsulated the British “keep calm and carry on” approach with his instruction to “wash your hands” while singing “Happy Birthday” twice. At the beginning of March, the 55-year-old premier proudly boasted of “shaking hands with everybody” during a visit to a hospital with coronavirus patients, while washing his hands regularly. On April 6, he was admitted to intensive care after failing to shake off the virus.
...
The next day, Vallance provoked an outcry by suggesting the government’s aim was to acquire “some degree of herd immunity,” in which as much as 60% of the population—40 million people—would become infected. The government now insists herd immunity was never official policy, but on the same day that Vallance made his explosive remark, Hancock’s actions suggested otherwise.
The health secretary dialed into a conference call for Group of Seven countries as governments across the world sought to coordinate their responses and share their experiences. Hancock asked the Italian representative if Italy was also working on a herd immunity plan.
The Italian representative was blunt: Allowing the virus to run riot would result in thousands of excess deaths and there was way too much uncertainty about the nature of the virus to be sure that such a gamble would even work. Hancock was shocked. The damage was done. Medical experts accused Johnson of failing to act soon enough.
Dropping widespread testing ran counter to WHO advice, and experience elsewhere. In South Korea, where contact tracing is in place, the government managed to contain the outbreak to a much lower level than in most European nations. By halting the tracing of people in the U.K. who had contact with patients who had tested positive, those without symptoms were able to keep spreading the virus.
Three days after Hancock’s G-7 call came the loudest alarm bell of all. On March 16, a team at Imperial College London, led by researcher Neil Ferguson, warned that Britain could face 250,000 deaths, with the health service inundated, if it did not take more aggressive steps to suppress the virus.
That day, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, known as SAGE and whose members and minutes aren’t disclosed publicly, met in London to decide on school closures and wider lockdown measures.
Johnson ordered the first phase of social distancing, telling the public to work from home where possible and not to meet friends in pubs and restaurants. The virus was spreading far faster than expected. The U.K. did not have the time it thought it had.
...
The good news is that although the U.K. is forecast to have the highest number of deaths in Europe, the rise in cases is slowing, suggesting projections could be revised downward. Demand for ventilators hasn’t exceeded capacity.
Yet by the time Johnson imposed the lockdown, on March 23, the U.K. had recorded 335 deaths, fewer than the 463 toll in Italy when it ordered its quarantine, though more than three times the number of fatalities in France (91) and Germany (94) when they told people to stay at home.
The delay in imposing distancing measures hurt the U.K., along with the fact that London is a busy international metropolis, said Ali Mokdad, a professor at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
“The delay in retrospect was a mistake,” Mokdad said. “It’s like a deck of cards, and you have to play the cards you are dealt. Yes, England is at a disadvantage being a hub for business and with people coming from everywhere, but then you have to be more aggressive with restrictions.”
...
One minister, who declined to be identified when discussing internal politics, said the lockdown had worked too well for the health of the economy. “The problem is that compliance with the rules has been too much,” the minister said. “We didn’t say ‘don’t work.’ We said ‘stay home, but work away from home if you can’t work at home.’”
Having been attacked for acting too late, Johnson himself is now reluctant to ease the social distancing measures, fearing that moving too soon could unleash a devastating second wave that would overwhelm the NHS. Whether guided by the science or not, the political risk of such a second peak might prove too great.
...