The Competing Models of Corona Virus

[Kathianne]

Oxford and Imperial. At least one doctor participated in both-he pointed out the differences between the two.

I'm not a math wizard, by a long shot. What I get though is that they align fairly closely, WHEN extreme social distancing is in place and enforced.

It was these models that Birx was referring to this morning, here is a bit of explanation:

https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/03/27/birx-imperial-college-model-vs-oxford-model-predictions-models-dont-match-reality-ground/

[jimnyc]

Which is so important IMO - that folks not in the health field don't go out there being biased and telling people otherwise, the media, many folks with "power".

[Kathianne]

Which is so important IMO - that folks not in the health field don't go out there being biased and telling people otherwise, the media, many folks with "power".

Just the nature of who I am and what I do, my friend sent me that t-shirt for my birthday, "I read and know things."

I had a strong inkling about the virus out of China, only because of my interest in Hong Kong protests since June. Those coupled with my working in electronics at Walmart, beginning in October.

I was reading about Hong Kong and since summer had been watching videos of the protests. Like many Asian countries, many wore masks, though the protest leaders dressed like ninjas with black masks. There were a smattering of regular mask wearers in the protests and a few in the crowds at malls, airport, on the sidewalks. Police did not wear masks early on, they had helmets.

Violence had escalated from September-November. Suddenly, everyone, police included were wearing masks. It was very noticeable. So was hand sanitizing. Repeatedly American, Australian, and a few UK/Israeli free lancing reporters would ask English speakers, "What's with the masks?" The answer always came back, 'Some pneumonia sickness on the mainland, they are trying to spread it here.'

Now I personally thought that bio warfare was likely over the top, but they believed it.

Walmart? Let me just say I realized why they are #1, they are super tight on inventory control-both keeping down shrinkage and having what people want, when they want it-without having to use too much store storage. Literally if you buy kool-aid, every packet of every flavor needs to be scanned. Not 10 kool aid, but 2 blueberry; 5 lemonade; 1 cherry; 1 orange; 1 strawberry.

Same with electronics, sell a Nintendo Switch; get another the next day. Always full, but none in back.

December 15, 10 days before Christmas we ran out of Switch; PS4; X-Box. By the 20th there were no phonographs, (big seller this year); Polaroid Cameras, (the biggest seller this year); CD players, antennas other than a few...

By the 24th mostly we only had flip phones left for the pay-as-you-go, all types.

Something was going very wrong. No, I did not connect the two, until hearing the first reports about China and their virus.

As soon as I did hear though, early January, I realized we weren't going to be seeing shipments any time soon. Wrong, we got a big shipment mid-January-we have since speculated they were ready to go, when China shut down. Got another at end of January. Then nothing for weeks. Then it got more normal.

You know what? When I left on Wednesday night, no Nintendo, games getting low on all systems. Phones are getting wiped out again. Is China being hit with second wave?

So sometimes I'll just post something I'm 'thinking about,' but never say it's 'fact,' I try to be very careful about saying it's my thinking or opinion or worth what you paid for it.

When I read something from an authoritative source, I cite it. I will often agree or disagree and say why.

There are very few things discussed here that are all true or all false-just sometimes a poster thinks that their thought processes belong to believed as facts. ;)

[Kathianne]

Related? Just yesterday China said it was closing airports to flights from afflicted countries, now today:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-shuts-down-all-cinemas-again-1287040


China Shuts Down All Cinemas, Again
6:11 AM PDT 3/27/2020 by Patrick Brzeski

Over the past two weeks, hundreds of movie theaters in the country had begun to reopen. No reason for the policy reversal was given, but insiders believe the government is worried about a potential second wave of coronavirus infections.
China's film regulators has slammed the brakes on plans to gradually reopen the country's cinemas.


Over 600 movie theaters across China were given the green light to reopen their doors over the past week, but Beijing's Film Bureau put out a notice late Friday ordering all theaters to go back into shutdown.


No official explanation for the sudden reversal was provided. Industry insiders instantly began speculating that the government was worried about a potential second wave of coronavirus infections.


The decision comes as a shock given the signals authorities had been sending as recently as a day ago. On Thursday, Shanghai's municipal government announced that 205 of the city's movie theaters had received permission to resume business on Saturday. Earlier in the week, China Film Group, the dominant state-backed distributor, unveiled a plan to let cinemas rerelease past blockbusters to help lure customers back into seats. The scheme was to entail both local hits, such as Wolf Warrior 2 and The Wandering Earth, and Hollywood-made product, such as the full Avengers franchise and last year's Oscar best picture winner, Green Book.


The phased reopening of China's vast network of 70,000 movie screens had promised a rare bright spot on the global distribution map, given that cinemas are shuttered in virtually every other major market around the globe, including North America, Europe, Japan and elsewhere. Beijing's decision to reclose — or stay closed — was met with dismay by stakeholders throughout the Chinese industry.


"This second closure will not be a one- or two-week issue," an executive at a major exhibition company told The Hollywood Reporter, asking not to be named because of the sensitivity of commenting on government policy related to the coronavirus. "They are going to be even more cautious when they attempt to reopen again — and this will set us back a long time."

. . .