China Didn't Blink First

[Kathianne]

I'm glad he did this, though not sure why outside of market confidence. Then again, that was a given with the announcement.


http://patterico.com/2019/08/13/trump-delays-chinese-tariffs/


8/13/2019
Trump delays Chinese Tariffs
Filed under: Economics,International — DRJ @ 10:06 am

Donald Trump CAVES on tariffs on Chinese goods putting them off for MONTHS after ‘very good call’ with Beijing so they do not send cost of Christmas shopping soaring amid fears they will end his economic boom:


The Trump Administration announced Tuesday morning that is delaying tariffs on Chinese-manufactured goods like laptops and cell phones until Dec. 15.


Trump’s trade office says that certain products ‘will not face additional tariffs of 10 percent’ due to health, safety or national security concerns. Some of the products it listed were cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, computer monitors, footwear and clothing. USTR said it will post a list of items that are being excluded on its website.


It announced the postponement shortly after the the stock market opened, and the Dow jumped nearly 500 points within minutes of the news.


Donald Trump has not commented directly but hinted in a tweet that the action was intended to get China to move forward with large agricultural orders.


Did Trump’s negotiating strategy work or did he cave because of farmers and Christmas?

[STTAB]

I'm glad he did this, though not sure why outside of market confidence. Then again, that was a given with the announcement.


http://patterico.com/2019/08/13/trump-delays-chinese-tariffs/

Neither.

This is how Trump governs. It happens time after time after time. He sets a deadline, scares the shit out of people, not to mention gets the medial riled up even more, and then uses some pretext to delay his original threat, sometimes. Other times following up on the threat. So that whomever he is dealing with can't predict what he might do.

It's not a tactic I agree with strategy wise, but there is no denying that it has worked with him in many areas. Mexico came right to the table and are cooperating with the US on illegal immigration, aren't they? As an example.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

I guess Trump has learned how to be a politician. Washington is finally having it's effect on him.

Caving on the 2nd amendment, and now caving on China. Two major things. My support for him is starting to fracture.

I wanted Ted Cruz for president, although it does make me wonder where we'd be with anything if he had won. Would the economy be better, immigration, trade...?

I'm still VERY thankful Hitlery didn't win though. I'd vote for the worst republican candidate there is over a democrat, because the worst repub is still better than a democrat.

[Kathianne]

I guess Trump has learned how to be a politician. Washington is finally having it's effect on him.

Caving on the 2nd amendment, and now caving on China. Two major things. My support for him is starting to fracture.

I wanted Ted Cruz for president, although it does make me wonder where we'd be with anything if he had won. Would the economy be better, immigration, trade...?

I'm still VERY thankful Hitlery didn't win though. I'd vote for the worst republican candidate there is over a democrat, because the worst repub is still better than a democrat.

The tariff threat, which is what it is now, was enough to cause the markets to go unstable. At this point I don't think there is anyone who thinks a deal with China is possible, certainly not before the election. If we think the President is thin-skinned, he has nothing on China. I doubt they'll get in a twitter fight, but he relishes on belittling those he wants to bargain. China doesn't do well with losing face.

Now I will be the first to say that he's played cards I didn't think could be played, so I'll not say 'never.' I do know what I'm reading today is that the 'forecasters' are saying that in spite of the hopeful stability this reprieve will bring, they fear recession within the next 12 months-which would be just in time for you know what.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

The tariff threat, which is what it is now, was enough to cause the markets to go unstable. At this point I don't think there is anyone who thinks a deal with China is possible, certainly not before the election. If we think the President is thin-skinned, he has nothing on China. I doubt they'll get in a twitter fight, but he relishes on belittling those he wants to bargain. China doesn't do well with losing face.

Now I will be the first to say that he's played cards I didn't think could be played, so I'll not say 'never.' I do know what I'm reading today is that the 'forecasters' are saying that in spite of the hopeful stability this reprieve will bring, they fear recession within the next 12 months-which would be just in time for you know what.
China NEEDED to be dealt with. I heard on the news earlier today that there has been changes already though. That no longer does China require that an American company in China MUST have a Chinese partner, and that no longer are they required to hand over intellectual property, so Trump did effect some change. But they're still manipulating their currency, and there still is a trade imbalance, but the chicoms are trying to OUTLAST Trump at this point, as you mentioned. They're hoping he isn't reelected and we get a new president that will CAVE to them, AGAIN. But if Trump is reelected, I think they're in for some real hard ball.

[CSM]

China NEEDED to be dealt with. I heard on the news earlier today that there has been changes already though. That no longer does China require that an American company in China MUST have a Chinese partner, and that no longer are they required to hand over intellectual property, so Trump did effect some change. But they're still manipulating their currency, and there still is a trade imbalance, but the chicoms are trying to OUTLAST Trump at this point, as you mentioned. They're hoping he isn't reelected and we get a new president that will CAVE to them, AGAIN. But if Trump is reelected, I think they're in for some real hard ball.

Wanna bet that the Dems declare Trump (assuming he wins) a "lame duck" as soon as the election results are announced?

[High_Plains_Drifter]

Wanna bet that the Dems declare Trump (assuming he wins) a "lame duck" as soon as the election results are announced?
No doubt, but if they thought they saw a DICTATOR in his first term, wait until he doesn't have to worry about being reelected... :laugh:

[icansayit]

He is an Expert at "THE ART OF A DEAL", and a master Negotiator who Let's Other People Chase Him...UNTIL He catches them. (so to speak)

The President likes keeping everybody guessing. He never announces what HE REALLY IS THINKING, until everybody who hates him finds out the Hard Way...as he SMILES, and doesn't fear all the names they call him.

If I was a BILLIONAIRE...I wouldn't give TWO CRAPS either.:laugh::laugh::laugh:

[High_Plains_Drifter]

He is an Expert at "THE ART OF A DEAL", and a master Negotiator who Let's Other People Chase Him...UNTIL He catches them. (so to speak)

The President likes keeping everybody guessing. He never announces what HE REALLY IS THINKING, until everybody who hates him finds out the Hard Way...as he SMILES, and doesn't fear all the names they call him.

If I was a BILLIONAIRE...I wouldn't give TWO CRAPS either.:laugh::laugh::laugh:

I'd agree with that. I think he's usually two steps ahead of what other people are doing. But, he's in politics, he's in Washington, this isn't his personal life. He has to play their game... to a degree. Shame too.

[Kathianne]

If the economy is down at election time, well ask Bush I, both the fed and I've no doubt Trump can read the tea leaves:

https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2019/08/14/uh-oh-recession-indicators-flashing-red/




Uh Oh: Recession Indicators Flashing Red?
ED MORRISSEYPosted at 12:01 pm on August 14, 2019

For the first time since the Great Recession, a major signal of impending recession has emerged. The inverted yield curve has sent investors running away from the stock market this morning, and appears to corroborate earlier warnings that the US economy is heading into a major problem:


U.S. stocks tumbled at open Wednesday after the inverted yield curve, one of the most reliable indicators of a recession, sparked a new wave of investor fears, erasing the short-lived bump from Tuesday’s trade easing.




For the first time since 2007, the yields on short-term U.S. bonds eclipsed those of long-term bonds. This phenomenon, which suggests investors’ faith in the economy is faltering, has preceded every recession in the last 50 years. Recessions typically come within 18 to 24 months after the yield curve inverts, according to research from Credit Suisse.




“The 3-month Treasury bill to 10-year note curve has been inverted for weeks now and with the inversion of the 2-year to 10-year curve. The stars are aligned across the curve that the economy is headed for a big fall,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “The yield curves are all crying timber that a recession is almost a reality, and investors are tripping over themselves to get out of the way.”

Donald Trump’s surprise change to tariffs yesterday had resulted in a more optimistic mood on Wall Street. Trump had earlier announced 10% tariffs on $300 billion of imports from China starting on September 1, but yesterday postponed about half of them until December 15. The goods spared from tariffs are mostly consumer goods, with Trump tacitly acknowledging that tariffs on those could damage retailers who need a good Christmas season this year:


Trump’s 10% tariffs will be effective from Dec. 15 for thousands of products including clothing and footwear, possibly buttressing the holiday selling season from some of the fallout from the protracted trade spat between the world’s two largest economies.




“We’re doing this for Christmas season, just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on U.S. customers,” Trump told reporters in New Jersey. “Just in case they might have an impact on people, what we’ve done is we’ve delayed it so that they won’t be relevant to the Christmas shopping season.”


The reason for delaying the consumer-goods tariffs might be related to the impact on one person’s Christmas in particular. Trump can’t afford a recession, as I argue today in my column for The Week, not just for what it will do to his electoral fortunes but for how it will impact the Democratic race. A recession will push risk-averse voters to the safe choice, who will also be the toughest for Trump to beat in 2020:



A recession in 2020 would be a body blow to Trump’s campaign. A recession in 2019, or perhaps just the perception of its inevitability, might influence the Democratic primaries more than even Warren could predict. For insight, we can look back to 1992’s Democratic primary and how Carville’s axiom played out.




The Democratic field in 1991-2 was nowhere near as large as in this cycle, but it had a surprisingly similar progressive bent. Early in 1991, fresh off his Gulf War victory and with approval ratings of 89 percent at one point, Bush seemed unbeatable, which discouraged more well-known potential candidates such as Mario Cuomo and Jesse Jackson from throwing their hats into the ring. Instead, Clinton and his successful Southern centrism squared off against only one other governor, California’s Jerry Brown, at the time a favorite of left-leaning progressives. The three other major candidates in the race all came out of the U.S. Senate: Massachusetts’ Paul Tsongas, Nebraska’s Bob Kerrey, and Iowa’s Tom Harkin, all of whom came from the party’s more liberal and/or populist wing.




And yet, in the midst of a recession, the race took a surprisingly centrist tone. After recovering from the exposure of an extramarital affair, Clinton kept his focus on economic growth through traditional methods. This strategy turned out to be so successful that Brown tried changing tactics late in the primaries, swinging right to back a flat tax and abolishing the Department of Education, long a goal of Ronald Reagan conservatives. In the end, however, Democrats went with Clinton and his laser focus on the economy, a centrist who promised less of an economic revolution in the midst of uncertainty in the short recession.




If that same dynamic holds in 2020, it won’t benefit Warren even if she wins the recession-prediction sweepstakes. Voters will want stability and caution rather than radical shifts in policy, perhaps especially after the drama and unpredictability of Trump’s White House tenure. Almost the entire Democratic field has run hard to the left in order to out-Bernie Bernie Sanders; of the viable candidates remaining, only Joe Biden fits the mold. Biden also represents a restoration of the Barack Obama order, which is already attractive enough that Biden’s opponents have been forced into the role of attacking Obama to fight Biden for the nomination.


Voters tend to be risk-averse in economic downturns. That’s good news for those concerned about radicals in the Democratic Party, but it’s not good news for Trump. The economy was performing well enough for voters to roll the dice on Trump three years ago, but they may not be as sanguine about it next year if the economy hits the rocks.


With the inverted yield curve, time may have run out on that gamble. Economists have begun speaking out on the risks of recession, with the China trade war the biggest potential driver of a new downturn. Trump now has to consider just how long he wants to fight a trade war with China. Is it worth losing a second term to Biden, who will reverse Trump’s China policies almost immediately anyway? The concession on consumer goods is a signal that Trump might be looking for a way out, especially since Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross admitted that China didn’t offer any concessions for the delay:



There were no concessions from China for the U.S. decision to postpone tariffs on some Chinese imports until mid-December, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Wednesday, adding that it was too early to assess where U.S.-China trade talks stand.




Ross, speaking in an interview on CNBC, added that while further telephone conversations between the two sides were discussed, a date has not been set for another round of in-person discussions.




“This was not a quid pro quo,” Ross told the television network.


It might be time to declare victory and depart the field, assuming that China’s willing to play along. If not, Trump’s taking a big gamble on a recession, and an even bigger gamble on what even the perception of an economic reversal will produce in the Democratic primary.

[STTAB]

The tariff threat, which is what it is now, was enough to cause the markets to go unstable. At this point I don't think there is anyone who thinks a deal with China is possible, certainly not before the election. If we think the President is thin-skinned, he has nothing on China. I doubt they'll get in a twitter fight, but he relishes on belittling those he wants to bargain. China doesn't do well with losing face.

Now I will be the first to say that he's played cards I didn't think could be played, so I'll not say 'never.' I do know what I'm reading today is that the 'forecasters' are saying that in spite of the hopeful stability this reprieve will bring, they fear recession within the next 12 months-which would be just in time for you know what.

A deal with China IS possible. Here's the deal, Trump realized that China is hoping he loses reelection. That is there ONLY hope here, get Trump out of office.

And they play the long game, deal with another $300B in tarrifs hoping it tanks the US economy within 2 months so Trump doesn't get reelected? Yes, they will take that bet. They can not do that for four years though and they know it, every economist knows it, if Trump win reelection, China will be forced to negotiate a deal.

[Kathianne]

A deal with China IS possible. Here's the deal, Trump realized that China is hoping he loses reelection. That is there ONLY hope here, get Trump out of office.

And they play the long game, deal with another $300B in tarrifs hoping it tanks the US economy within 2 months so Trump doesn't get reelected? Yes, they will take that bet. They can not do that for four years though and they know it, every economist knows it, if Trump win reelection, China will be forced to negotiate a deal.

Uh huh. Might want to see what's going on regarding recession markers today.

[STTAB]

Uh huh. Might want to see what's going on regarding recession markers today.

That has naught to do with my comments. If Trump gets reelected and continues pursuing a fair deal with China they will have to come to the table, their economy won't handle four years of tarrifs.

[pete311]

Trump just blinked holding off on tariffs after xmas to give consumers a break.... even though Trump has claimed China pays for the Tariffs. lol, he's playing everyone for dummies.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

Hmmm... and here I just heard an expert on Fox News saying the FED can adjust the interest rate down to where it should be and we're in good shape, that the economy is rock solid and all this talk of a coming recession is wild speculation.

[Kathianne]

Hmmm... and here I just heard an expert on Fox News saying the FED can adjust the interest rate down to where it should be and we're in good shape, that the economy is rock solid and all this talk of a coming recession is wild speculation.


Predicting anything is dicey. The thing with markets is there is most definitely a herd mentality:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/yield-curve-inversion-signals-recession



Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red
By Jonathan GarberPublished August 14, 2019

The yield curve is blaring a recession warning.


The spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields on Wednesday turned negative for the first time since 2007. Such a development has occurred ahead of each and every U.S. recession of the last 50 years, sometimes leading by as much as 24 months.


“Historically, the 2-10 has had better predictive ability of recession than equities,” Sri Kumar, president of the Santa Monica, California-based Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, told Fox Business.


“If you depended on equities to tell you whether you are entering into a recession you did not do well. For example, October, November of 2006, exactly one year before the Great Recession began, the 2-10- inverted. Equities did well in the first half of 2008 when we were in a recession and oil prices hit a peak in May of 2008 when we were very much in a recession.

[Kathianne]

So a couple days ago, the President says that 'some' tariffs will not be implemented until December 15, in a tweet he says, 'it will help China more than us, but they will reciprocate.' He even offered to meet with Xi.

Overnight, China responded, seems Xi is miffed about the remaining tariffs to be implemented in September, so he announces, 'China will retaliate for these tariffs.'

With that, the futures again started going south.

Tariff wars are not a good thing.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

China did blink. The currency changes they are making is the blink.
As is the blustering and the realization that their desire to expand as a great sea-power, is now meeting greater opposition from USA/President Trump.
China had been pursuing a bullying policy at sea for the entire 8 years of the obama administration--now Trump has started to institute a few moves to block/slow that agenda, IMHO.
As usual mainstream media spin has Trump being in the wrong--all according to their leftist, pro-dem, propaganda...... -Tyr

[Kathianne]

China did blink. The currency changes they are making is the blink.
As is the blustering and the realization that their desire to expand as a great sea-power, is now meeting greater opposition from USA/President Trump.
China had been pursuing a bullying policy at sea for the entire 8 years of the obama administration--now Trump has started to institute a few moves to block/slow that agenda, IMHO.
As usual mainstream media spin has Trump being in the wrong--all according to their leftist, pro-dem, propaganda...... -Tyr

I think he may be right in the long run, but elections are next year. We'll see if the markets sort themselves out, though seems unlikely when the US is the only economy that isn't already contracting or starting to.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

I think he may be right in the long run, but elections are next year. We'll see if the markets sort themselves out, though seems unlikely when the US is the only economy that isn't already contracting or starting to.
Are you kidding. China is really feeling the heat. The only difference between the US and China is, the Chinese communist government doesn't give a damn what their people think. They don't worry about elections. They just rule with an iron fist. If their people are suffering, too damn bad. Here it's a completely different story. China can force their people to suffer to win a trade/tariff war, but oh my, in America, if little Suzie has to pay another $1.35 for her laptop, holy shit hits the fan and the democrat propaganda wing goes into melt down.

[Kathianne]

Are you kidding. China is really feeling the heat. The only difference between the US and China is, the Chinese communist government doesn't give a damn what their people think. They don't worry about elections. They just rule with an iron fist. If their people are suffering, too damn bad. Here it's a completely different story. China can force their people to suffer to win a trade/tariff war, but oh my, in America, if little Suzie has to pay another $1.35 for her laptop, holy shit hits the fan and the democrat propaganda wing goes into melt down.


Kidding about what?

US economy is the only one still expanding?
Germany is in the negative, one more quarter and official recession. UK is right there too. Rest of Europe is contracting.
China is slowing down, not looking to improve in short run.

What are you wondering about me kidding?

[STTAB]

Kidding about what?

US economy is the only one still expanding?
Germany is in the negative, one more quarter and official recession. UK is right there too. Rest of Europe is contracting.
China is slowing down, not looking to improve in short run.

What are you wondering about me kidding?

Yep, our capitalist evil white country is the only one that is still booming. Don't worry the Dems intend to change that in 2021.

[Gunny]

Good thing Rocky didn't blink first in his rematch with MR T or he'd have lost :rolleyes:

I've not once held a leadership position that was static. Meaning, my great idea last month might need a change in direction this week, determined by an environment that changes from one minute to the next.

I'd prefer the President adjust accordingly to new data than form a plan and stick to it come Hell or High Water because it's "his plan". The latter being the plan of a fool.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

Kidding about what?

US economy is the only one still expanding?
Germany is in the negative, one more quarter and official recession. UK is right there too. Rest of Europe is contracting.
China is slowing down, not looking to improve in short run.

What are you wondering about me kidding?
"Are you kidding" is just a quip.

I got the impression that you were saying China was still in good shape and can weather a trade/tariff war much better than America.

Looks like we're on the same page though.

[Kathianne]

"Are you kidding" is just a quip.

I got the impression that you were saying China was still in good shape and can weather a trade/tariff war much better than America.

Looks like we're on the same page though.

Quip or not, you were thinking that I was writing something different than I was, which is why I tried to explain.

China's economy may be weaker than ours, but ours cannot take the instability without also following the world wide slowdown, which is precisely why we shouldn't be doing this, especially if the President wants a second term. Being in or sliding into a recession is a real challenge to re-election.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

Quip or not, you were thinking that I was writing something different than I was, which is why I tried to explain.

China's economy may be weaker than ours, but ours cannot take the instability without also following the world wide slowdown, which is precisely why we shouldn't be doing this, especially if the President wants a second term. Being in or sliding into a recession is a real challenge to re-election.
Well.... it has to be done though. China can't continue ripping off America. Other nations have doing the same thing too. America isn't the world's whipping post or piggy bank. If we're going to suffer, then the rest of the world should get a taste of what we've been going through.

[Kathianne]

Well.... it has to be done though. China can't continue ripping off America. Other nations have doing the same thing too. America isn't the world's whipping post or piggy bank. If we're going to suffer, then the rest of the world should get a taste of what we've been going through.

If you can get with Trump possibly sacrificing his second term for attempting to bring China to heel in one term, go for it!

[STTAB]

Quip or not, you were thinking that I was writing something different than I was, which is why I tried to explain.

China's economy may be weaker than ours, but ours cannot take the instability without also following the world wide slowdown, which is precisely why we shouldn't be doing this, especially if the President wants a second term. Being in or sliding into a recession is a real challenge to re-election.

That is EXACTLY what China is banking on. That Trump will back down fearing he'll lose reelection, and lose anyway so that they can continue about their merry way.

IF Trump holds tough and we don't slide into a recession and Trump gets reelected China will suddenly be ready to negotiate, because they absolutely can not withstand another four years of Trump demanding fairness via tarrifs. They can only devalue their dollar for so long.

[FakeNewsSux]

That is EXACTLY what China is banking on. That Trump will back down fearing he'll lose reelection, and lose anyway so that they can continue about their merry way.

IF Trump holds tough and we don't slide into a recession and Trump gets reelected China will suddenly be ready to negotiate, because they absolutely can not withstand another four years of Trump demanding fairness via tarrifs. They can only devalue their dollar for so long.

Trump antes up once again:

Trump moves forward with F-16 sale to Taiwan opposed by China

https://thehill.com/sites/default/files/styles/thumb_small_article/public/blogs/taiwanf16s-159902798.jpg?itok=9lHU9kTG
© © Getty Images

Leading lawmakers are commending the Trump administration for moving forward with a proposed sale of F-16V fighter jets to Taiwan after the administration informally notified Congress of the sale, to which China is staunchly opposed.
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch (https://thehill.com/people/jim-risch) (R-Idaho) said the F-16s are “critical” for Taiwan's defense.
“These fighters are critical to improving Taiwan’s ability to defend its sovereign airspace, which is under increasing pressure from the People’s Republic of China,” Risch said in a statement Friday. “I commend the Trump administration for making this decision to bolster Taiwan’s defensive capabilities, and note the strong bipartisan and bicameral support for this sale.”
In the House, Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel (https://thehill.com/people/eliot-engel) (D-N.Y.) and ranking member Michael McCaul (https://thehill.com/people/michael-mccaul) (R-Texas) said in a joint statement that the sale will send a “strong message.”
“The sale of F-16s to Taiwan sends a strong message about the U.S. commitment to security and democracy in the Indo-Pacific,” they said. “As leaders of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, we are pleased the administration is moving forward with this sale and have every confidence that it will be supported on a bipartisan and bicameral basis.”
The Trump administration sent the committees an informal notification late Thursday that it had approved the sale, two congressional aides confirmed. Taiwan requested to buy 66 F-16s, a sale estimated to be worth $8 billion.

http://thehill.com/policy/defense/457724-trump-moves-forward-with-f-16-sale-to-taiwan

[STTAB]

I actually think Trump plays too nice with these countries. The other night, for example, he said over and over "China wants to make a deal" "North Korea wants to make a deal" "Iran wants to make a deal" no they don't, they will have to be FORCED to make a deal that is fair and equitable to the US.