jimnyc
05-19-2019, 12:39 PM
Back looking at this monstrosity of the Dem primaries
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Why the Crowded Primary Field Boosts Biden
If fewer Democrats were running, the former vice president would be a precarious front-runner. But with 23 candidates running, it will be hard for any opponent to unseat him.
In his landmark book The Paradox of Choice, psychologist Barry Schwartz offered a counterintuitive argument: People claim they want more choices in life, but when they get them, they become paralyzed in their decision-making. “We may be worse off with all these choices: We may lack the expertise to choose them wisely, we may lack the time to develop that expertise, and we may already be so overburdened with decisions that adding more will render us unable to make any,” he wrote.
Welcome to the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. The dynamic that Schwartz described plagues the Democratic Party, which is running a record 23 candidates for the right to challenge President Trump. Everyone from small-town mayors to big-state governors wants their chance at winning the presidential lottery.
Make no mistake: The sheer size of the Democratic field is detrimental to the party’s long-term health. It prevents talented but lesser-known contenders from getting the necessary attention to build momentum for their candidacy. It forces candidates to develop narrow niches of appeal instead of running inspirational national campaigns. Most importantly, it insulates the party’s best-known figures, who happen to be the 76-year-old former vice president and a 77-year-old socialist senator.
Bernie Sanders famously argued during his insurgent 2016 campaign that the Democratic race was rigged against him because of the role of superdelegates. In reality, the presence of so many candidates in this year’s election does more to “rig” the system against the underdogs. There’s only so much attention to go around, and the two brand-name candidates (Sanders and Joe Biden) will be sucking up a disproportionate share of media oxygen.
This unruly dynamic greatly benefits Biden, a well-liked elder statesman who benefits from his close association with Barack Obama. His high profile has afforded him the luxury to make his campaign about taking on Trump in a way that his lower-profile opponents can’t afford. And given the crowded field, the decision for any opponent to take on Biden carries great risk. Going negative often backfires, and with a field this large, one of the other candidates stands to benefit from anti-Biden attacks. That reality is dissuading most candidates—at least for now—from challenging the front-runner.
And for all the hype the upcoming debates will receive, it’s likely that they won’t make a major difference in the race—at least not initially. The party is splitting the debates on two different nights to accommodate the large field, with the participants randomly assigned. That means there’s a good chance Biden won’t even get to face his leading opponents on the same stage. And it limits the amount of time each candidate will have to make a positive first impression.
Biden currently looks like the strongest candidate against Trump—a perception that’s boosting his primary polling—but it’s possible he could emerge as the nominee without facing the aggressive scrutiny front-runners typically receive. Most candidates will need to distinguish themselves from the pack before they consider it worthwhile to take on Biden directly. By the time the field narrows, it could end up being too late to make a difference. Far from being tested in the meat grinder of a presidential primary, Biden could end up coasting.
Rest - https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/678896?unlock=9CIXFHFZJD3KT8KJ
---
Why the Crowded Primary Field Boosts Biden
If fewer Democrats were running, the former vice president would be a precarious front-runner. But with 23 candidates running, it will be hard for any opponent to unseat him.
In his landmark book The Paradox of Choice, psychologist Barry Schwartz offered a counterintuitive argument: People claim they want more choices in life, but when they get them, they become paralyzed in their decision-making. “We may be worse off with all these choices: We may lack the expertise to choose them wisely, we may lack the time to develop that expertise, and we may already be so overburdened with decisions that adding more will render us unable to make any,” he wrote.
Welcome to the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. The dynamic that Schwartz described plagues the Democratic Party, which is running a record 23 candidates for the right to challenge President Trump. Everyone from small-town mayors to big-state governors wants their chance at winning the presidential lottery.
Make no mistake: The sheer size of the Democratic field is detrimental to the party’s long-term health. It prevents talented but lesser-known contenders from getting the necessary attention to build momentum for their candidacy. It forces candidates to develop narrow niches of appeal instead of running inspirational national campaigns. Most importantly, it insulates the party’s best-known figures, who happen to be the 76-year-old former vice president and a 77-year-old socialist senator.
Bernie Sanders famously argued during his insurgent 2016 campaign that the Democratic race was rigged against him because of the role of superdelegates. In reality, the presence of so many candidates in this year’s election does more to “rig” the system against the underdogs. There’s only so much attention to go around, and the two brand-name candidates (Sanders and Joe Biden) will be sucking up a disproportionate share of media oxygen.
This unruly dynamic greatly benefits Biden, a well-liked elder statesman who benefits from his close association with Barack Obama. His high profile has afforded him the luxury to make his campaign about taking on Trump in a way that his lower-profile opponents can’t afford. And given the crowded field, the decision for any opponent to take on Biden carries great risk. Going negative often backfires, and with a field this large, one of the other candidates stands to benefit from anti-Biden attacks. That reality is dissuading most candidates—at least for now—from challenging the front-runner.
And for all the hype the upcoming debates will receive, it’s likely that they won’t make a major difference in the race—at least not initially. The party is splitting the debates on two different nights to accommodate the large field, with the participants randomly assigned. That means there’s a good chance Biden won’t even get to face his leading opponents on the same stage. And it limits the amount of time each candidate will have to make a positive first impression.
Biden currently looks like the strongest candidate against Trump—a perception that’s boosting his primary polling—but it’s possible he could emerge as the nominee without facing the aggressive scrutiny front-runners typically receive. Most candidates will need to distinguish themselves from the pack before they consider it worthwhile to take on Biden directly. By the time the field narrows, it could end up being too late to make a difference. Far from being tested in the meat grinder of a presidential primary, Biden could end up coasting.
Rest - https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/678896?unlock=9CIXFHFZJD3KT8KJ