jimnyc
02-19-2019, 02:22 PM
Biden and O'Rourke - and possibly Einstein aka Sanders in the mix as well, he had a great showing against Hillary in 2016, and they cheated against him!
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The 10 Dems most likely to win the 2020 presidential nomination
The race for the Democratic presidential nomination is already heating up, even though there is almost a year to go before the Iowa caucuses.
Here are The Hill’s rankings of where the contenders stand right now.
1. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.)
Harris has had by far the best launch of any candidate.
Her speech declaring her candidacy was delivered powerfully before a large and appreciative crowd in Oakland. Her appearances in early states have been well-received, as have her initial round of media interview. More generally, she has effectively presented herself as a fresh and charismatic presence.
Harris has also rolled out some early endorsements including Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) and, on Friday alone, both California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and Hispanic civil rights icon Dolores Huerta.
There are still plenty of questions that Harris will have to answer — including how her long record as a prosecutor will be scrutinized by a Democratic base focused on questions of police misconduct and racial inequities.
Early front-runners can easily come unstuck, but for now Harris is the most formidable candidate in the race.
Previous ranking on Jan. 1: 4
2. Former Vice President Joe Biden
For all the excitement around Harris, it is the former vice president who still heads every significant nationwide poll of Democratic voters.
In an Emerson poll released on Saturday, he was 10 points ahead of his closest rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), with Harris third, a further 2 points behind. A Morning Consult poll earlier last week put Biden 7 points clear of Sanders and 16 points ahead of Harris.
In 2016, Biden mulled a run for a long time before deciding against it. His son Beau had died from brain cancer in May 2015, and Biden ultimately chose not to force himself thorough the rigors of a presidential campaign.
This time around, The Hill has reported that he is almost certain to declare a candidacy soon.
Biden has weaknesses in the race, including his age — he would be 78 on Inauguration Day 2021 — and past votes that sit uneasily with the current Democratic base on everything from the Iraq War to a 1994 crime bill.
But his skills as retail politician, his experience and the loyal service he rendered for eight years to President Obama would all stand in his favor.
Previous ranking: 3
3. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)
Sanders entered the race early Tuesday, following weekend reports that he had recorded a video announcing his candidacy.
Sanders will clearly be a top-flight contender. Polls generally put him second, behind Biden.
He could end up being a victim of his own relative success in one sense, however. His stronger than expected challenge to eventual Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 showed there was an appetite in the party for more left-wing policies. Now, several other declared or likely candidates are running on progressive platforms that could blunt Sanders’s formerly unique appeal.
He has other problems as well, including the enmity he earned among Clinton supporters in 2016.
In January, he apologized to women who say they were harassed or mistreated by male staff during his 2016 campaign.
His decision to give his own rebuttal to President Trump’s State of the Union speech aggravated some activists who believed he was taking the spotlight from the Democrats’ official speaker of the night, former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams.
Age is an issue for Sanders, too. He is 77.
Previous ranking: 2
4. Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas)
Will he or won’t he?
That’s the key question around O’Rourke, who ignited enormous Democratic enthusiasm in his ultimately unsuccessful challenge to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) last year.
O’Rourke’s intentions are far from clear. He embarked on a road trip in January, earning some mockery from detractors for his introspective musings in an online diary.
On the other hand, when Trump held a rally in O’Rourke’s home base of El Paso recently, the former Texas congressman headlined his own event nearby, which drew a crowd several thousand strong.
The longer O’Rourke stays out of the race, the greater the danger that someone like Harris could really catch fire. On the other hand, his prodigious fundraising ability — he raised an eye-popping $38 million in 2018’s third quarter during his Senate bid — ensures he would be a serious candidate.
Previous ranking: 1
5. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)
It’s been a largely uninspiring start to the campaign for Warren, who had been considered one of the leading candidates in the early running.
Part of the problem is the issue that won’t quit — her prior self-identification as a Native American and her decision last year to take a DNA test to prove that she was telling the truth.
The test affirmed that she had a Native American ancestor six to 10 generations ago. But even some Democrats believe the whole episode played into the hands of Trump, who continues to deride Warren, whom he has long mocked as “Pocahontas.”
Warren is betting that there is a strong electoral market for someone who can combine her professorial in-depth knowledge, especially of financial regulation, with a style that savors confrontation with Trump.
But her initial poll ratings are average at best, fueling suspicions that she is being overtaken by other figures, particularly Harris, who may have a stronger personal magnetism.
Previous ranking: 5
6. Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.)
7. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.)
8. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)
9. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.)
10. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg
Rest - https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/430461-the-10-dems-most-likely-to-win-the-2020-presidential-nomination
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The 10 Dems most likely to win the 2020 presidential nomination
The race for the Democratic presidential nomination is already heating up, even though there is almost a year to go before the Iowa caucuses.
Here are The Hill’s rankings of where the contenders stand right now.
1. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.)
Harris has had by far the best launch of any candidate.
Her speech declaring her candidacy was delivered powerfully before a large and appreciative crowd in Oakland. Her appearances in early states have been well-received, as have her initial round of media interview. More generally, she has effectively presented herself as a fresh and charismatic presence.
Harris has also rolled out some early endorsements including Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) and, on Friday alone, both California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and Hispanic civil rights icon Dolores Huerta.
There are still plenty of questions that Harris will have to answer — including how her long record as a prosecutor will be scrutinized by a Democratic base focused on questions of police misconduct and racial inequities.
Early front-runners can easily come unstuck, but for now Harris is the most formidable candidate in the race.
Previous ranking on Jan. 1: 4
2. Former Vice President Joe Biden
For all the excitement around Harris, it is the former vice president who still heads every significant nationwide poll of Democratic voters.
In an Emerson poll released on Saturday, he was 10 points ahead of his closest rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), with Harris third, a further 2 points behind. A Morning Consult poll earlier last week put Biden 7 points clear of Sanders and 16 points ahead of Harris.
In 2016, Biden mulled a run for a long time before deciding against it. His son Beau had died from brain cancer in May 2015, and Biden ultimately chose not to force himself thorough the rigors of a presidential campaign.
This time around, The Hill has reported that he is almost certain to declare a candidacy soon.
Biden has weaknesses in the race, including his age — he would be 78 on Inauguration Day 2021 — and past votes that sit uneasily with the current Democratic base on everything from the Iraq War to a 1994 crime bill.
But his skills as retail politician, his experience and the loyal service he rendered for eight years to President Obama would all stand in his favor.
Previous ranking: 3
3. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)
Sanders entered the race early Tuesday, following weekend reports that he had recorded a video announcing his candidacy.
Sanders will clearly be a top-flight contender. Polls generally put him second, behind Biden.
He could end up being a victim of his own relative success in one sense, however. His stronger than expected challenge to eventual Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 showed there was an appetite in the party for more left-wing policies. Now, several other declared or likely candidates are running on progressive platforms that could blunt Sanders’s formerly unique appeal.
He has other problems as well, including the enmity he earned among Clinton supporters in 2016.
In January, he apologized to women who say they were harassed or mistreated by male staff during his 2016 campaign.
His decision to give his own rebuttal to President Trump’s State of the Union speech aggravated some activists who believed he was taking the spotlight from the Democrats’ official speaker of the night, former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams.
Age is an issue for Sanders, too. He is 77.
Previous ranking: 2
4. Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas)
Will he or won’t he?
That’s the key question around O’Rourke, who ignited enormous Democratic enthusiasm in his ultimately unsuccessful challenge to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) last year.
O’Rourke’s intentions are far from clear. He embarked on a road trip in January, earning some mockery from detractors for his introspective musings in an online diary.
On the other hand, when Trump held a rally in O’Rourke’s home base of El Paso recently, the former Texas congressman headlined his own event nearby, which drew a crowd several thousand strong.
The longer O’Rourke stays out of the race, the greater the danger that someone like Harris could really catch fire. On the other hand, his prodigious fundraising ability — he raised an eye-popping $38 million in 2018’s third quarter during his Senate bid — ensures he would be a serious candidate.
Previous ranking: 1
5. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)
It’s been a largely uninspiring start to the campaign for Warren, who had been considered one of the leading candidates in the early running.
Part of the problem is the issue that won’t quit — her prior self-identification as a Native American and her decision last year to take a DNA test to prove that she was telling the truth.
The test affirmed that she had a Native American ancestor six to 10 generations ago. But even some Democrats believe the whole episode played into the hands of Trump, who continues to deride Warren, whom he has long mocked as “Pocahontas.”
Warren is betting that there is a strong electoral market for someone who can combine her professorial in-depth knowledge, especially of financial regulation, with a style that savors confrontation with Trump.
But her initial poll ratings are average at best, fueling suspicions that she is being overtaken by other figures, particularly Harris, who may have a stronger personal magnetism.
Previous ranking: 5
6. Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.)
7. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.)
8. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)
9. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.)
10. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg
Rest - https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/430461-the-10-dems-most-likely-to-win-the-2020-presidential-nomination