Jumping To Conclusions Is The New Hotness. Here's Why.

[jimnyc]

Not even going to try and write and weasel myself out of this one - the fact is that I'm guilty of often rushing to conclusions as well. Based on facts the best I can. But while I won't weasel myself out - I'll go out of my way to point out the left - who either do this out of stupidity on a daily basis - or things are "setup" and they like to make conclusions out there, and therefore some dummies take those conclusions as fact.

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Jumping To Conclusions Is The New Hotness. Here's Why.

Wait for more information.

This seems like a pretty simple rule when it comes to online speculation. All too often, we jump to conclusions based on nothing but confirmation bias – we look to project a narrative that fits our worldview onto a fact pattern that has not yet come into focus. That leads to pre-emptive bad blood and needless controversy. Once the evidence is out, most people tend to agree on the narrative that best fits the fact pattern anyway.

So why do so many people feel the need to leap chasms to unsupported conclusions? And why isn’t the near-constant failure of that strategy a deterrent to pursuing it?

The temptation isn’t limited to one side. On the Right, the going narrative is that a spate of attempted bombings of Left-wing personalities must be a false flag – either a coordinated attempt to smear Republicans on the part of Democratic activists, or a lone Democratic fan trying to cast aspersions on Republicans more broadly. On the Left, the going narrative is that President Trump essentially deputized the attempted bomber with his overheated rhetoric. That’s at least what the chyron-writer at CNN would have us believe:


Who the hell is writing the chyrons over at CNN, the Krassenstein brothers? Where's the evidence that Trump deputized the attempted bomber, exactly? pic.twitter.com/0bUXmuLC42

— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) October 25, 2018
Right, because you have no evidence the person (1) was a supporter of Trump's; (2) was not crazy; or (3) was incited in any reasonable way by Trump's comments. So this is just a BS smear. pic.twitter.com/SE6KdEKj8y

— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) October 25, 2018

So, why not wait for all the evidence to come in and be, you know, correct in your assessment of both the facts and the narrative?

Because incentives are utterly skewed in political punditry. Let’s say you’re a political commentator. A fact pattern comes in that sparks the curiosity of the nation. You have a large crowd of people who agree with you politically. Do you (1) wait for more information, gaining no retweets or additional publicity, or (2) put out a tweet confirming the gut feelings of your own crowd? Normally, you’d think that opting for (1) would be the safer option, given that you might be wrong.

But remember: if you guess first based on confirmation bias, and you turn out to be right, you and your followers will proclaim throughout the land that you have been touched by prophecy, since such prophecy confirms your worldview. If you guess first based on confirmation and get it wrong, your own crowd will find a way to excuse you anyway, since you’re on their side. President Trump was never punished for claiming that Barack Obama was born in Kenya; he’s reaped tremendous political rewards for immediately labeling Islamic terrorist attacks as such before all the evidence is in, then pointing out that he was correct. CNN hasn’t been punished for getting the Michael Brown story completely wrong, for example; they’ve reaped tremendous political rewards for arguing in conclusory fashion that Trump worked with the Russians to win the 2016 election. There’s all reward and no risk in simply jumping to the most convenient conclusion politically.

Rest - https://www.dailywire.com/news/37607/jumping-conclusions-new-hotness-heres-why-ben-shapiro

[Noir]

I think it’s mostly a bandwidth issue - too much information everyday requires instant responses because if you’re considering and responding to what happened 3 weeks ago you’re talking to yourself.

A good example of this at present are the devices sent to various ‘left’ figures. The left are all to eager to want to blame trump and republicans, the right are all to eager to mutter ‘left wing conspiracy for the midterms?’ and somewhere in it all in a few weeks time it’ll be in the ether, and won’t matter.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

Expressing an opinion on a possibility is not jumping to a conclusion.
Saying you know for a fact when all facts are not in is..
It is human nature to express opinion in form of a first guess and as such my first guess was the bombing was a false flag operation carried out by the dem/libs since they are corrupt as hell and will do anything to win!
Has either accusation been proven right or wrong yet?--Tyr

[Drummond]

I think it’s mostly a bandwidth issue - too much information everyday requires instant responses because if you’re considering and responding to what happened 3 weeks ago you’re talking to yourself.

A good example of this at present are the devices sent to various ‘left’ figures. The left are all to eager to want to blame trump and republicans, the right are all to eager to mutter ‘left wing conspiracy for the midterms?’ and somewhere in it all in a few weeks time it’ll be in the ether, and won’t matter.

If there's truth in this, it's a worrying truth. Because it's something which gives the Left hope that they can always win out, if only they're persistent enough.

What you're saying is that issues are easily forgotten. So, in society, if truths emerge about the undesirability of retaining an awareness of a sense of culpability for outrages committed, history can repeat itself.

In my society, hardline Leftieism nearly bought our economy to meltdown a number of times. YET ... we have the prospect of a hardline Leftie taking control of our Government in the not too distant future. Why ? Because society's lessons, even if 'learned', are subsequently forgotten.

For me, retaining an instinct of the sheer 'wrongness' of Socialism and Socialist thinking, I think, gives me an edge, proofs me against forgetting political lessons. And yes ... as a consequence, I do make assumptions in the face of news items. HOWEVER ... I THEN WAIT FOR PROOF I WAS RIGHT.

This is the difference between the Left and the Right. For the Left ... doctrine, propaganda imperatives, force a Leftie to see only what is required of them to see. But, for someone on the Right, we see what reality brings. We are open to it. Therefore, any errors are self-correcting.

[Abbey Marie]

I think it’s mostly a bandwidth issue - too much information everyday requires instant responses because if you’re considering and responding to what happened 3 weeks ago you’re talking to yourself.

A good example of this at present are the devices sent to various ‘left’ figures. The left are all to eager to want to blame trump and republicans, the right are all to eager to mutter ‘left wing conspiracy for the midterms?’ and somewhere in it all in a few weeks time it’ll be in the ether, and won’t matter.

I agree, Noir. And also, our attention span is rapidly shrinking.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

I think the vast majority of the problem lies directly with the CABLE NEWS shows, Fox included, because what you see on these 24/7 news channels is anything but NEWS. The vast majority of their programming IS OPINION. They give you a 30 second sound bite and then say, "now let's bring on so and so to get their REACTION," or "now let's bring on our panel," and what you get for the next 30 MINUTES is OPINIONS, and when it's CNN or MSNBC, or any one of the other leftist cable channels that delve into news, their BIAS is so THICK, so ONE SIDED, so UNHINGED and HYSTERICAL with their PURE, WHITE HOT HATE for President Trump and anything conservative, that when they hear a story that they can use to BASH the president, they don't give a CRAP if ANY of it is TRUE or not, they'll worry about that LATER, this is their chance to ramp up their unhinged HATE and TRASH him, and spew every sort of VILE GARBAGE their sick little minds can dredge up from that TOILET in their head.

[Kathianne]

I agree, Noir. And also, our attention span is rapidly shrinking.
I agree. I also think it's just part and parcel of the reality of further dividing into "Us" and "Them." Agreement with the 'enemy' is not allowed, for they are by definition, "evil."

Thinking that neither side has nor wants the full story is not an acceptable possibility. One is always right and the other always wrong. No commonality, no common good or common threat. The enemy is within.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

There is no common ground with the modern day democrat party. You either agree with them, or you are to be HARASSED, TRASHED, SHUT DOWN, SHOUTED DOWN, SHUT UP and even KILLED. When was the last time you saw a group of leftists LISTEN to a conservative, and agree that they were entitled to their opinion and to be able to express it? Yeah, NEVER. But conservatives ALWAYS champion ANYONE'S right to free speech.

If there is EVER capitulation, giving in, find common ground, it is ALWAYS on the part of the right caving the left. It is the left that is ALWAYS, PUSHING, the nation and it's people further in THEIR direction, ONLY.

[Elessar]

I think it’s mostly a bandwidth issue - too much information everyday requires instant responses because if you’re considering and responding to what happened 3 weeks ago you’re talking to yourself.

A good example of this at present are the devices sent to various ‘left’ figures. The left are all to eager to want to blame trump and republicans, the right are all to eager to mutter ‘left wing conspiracy for the midterms?’ and somewhere in it all in a few weeks time it’ll be in the ether, and won’t matter.

You have a good point about the 'bandwidth'.

Too many people are always chiming in immediately without waiting fro the facts to be uncovered.
It is like they want to be the first to comment and throw accusations at someone.

[Noir]

If there's truth in this, it's a worrying truth. Because it's something which gives the Left hope that they can always win out, if only they're persistent enough...

How surprising that you take what is a completely non-partisan issue and frame it in such a way that the bad man in the room is ‘leftism’.

Read the rest of the posts in the thread again and have a think Drummond.

[darin]

I agree. I also think it's just part and parcel of the reality of further dividing into "Us" and "Them." Agreement with the 'enemy' is not allowed, for they are by definition, "evil."

Thinking that neither side has nor wants the full story is not an acceptable possibility. One is always right and the other always wrong. No commonality, no common good or common threat. The enemy is within.

"A person is smart. People are dumb."
- Agent K, Men in Black


People WANT to be divided. People WANT to feel special. People WANT the other side to be evil only to further congratulate themselves on being "good". There is no hope for our society which will grow more and more needy and divisive and violent as the petulant children who stomped their feet and threw tantrums over ice cream have grown into monied, violent, empowered grown ups who stomp their feet on the necks of anyone telling them anything remotely relating to pointing out the err of their ways.

[Kathianne]

"A person is smart. People are dumb."
- Agent K, Men in Black


People WANT to be divided. People WANT to feel special. People WANT the other side to be evil only to further congratulate themselves on being "good". There is no hope for our society which will grow more and more needy and divisive and violent as the petulant children who stomped their feet and threw tantrums over ice cream have grown into monied, violent, empowered grown ups who stomp their feet on the necks of anyone telling them anything remotely relating to pointing out the err of their ways.

I think you're onto something. For most, it seems they choose the safety of staying with the crowd, whichever one they choose. After a bit, it seems to be their normal.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

At what point does truth, reality and recent history weigh heavy enough to correctly jade ones judgment?
Has it not been enough to see, have endured and truly understand what the 8 years of the obama and his political party means for this nation and its future?
That some see the damn darkness and feel anger is not only right but a mark of facing reality and not ignoring it, IMHO.

That some give full credit to what the dem party, the libs, the leftists are truly doing and then openly speak up about , even if others think it jumping to conclusions- is simply acknowledging the agenda of certain groups and displaying righteous anger!
And please, do try to tell me that there is no such thing as righteous anger.
If I am jaded about what these assholes are doing and I decide decide to not temper my words- but instead make a comment based upon information first given- that later must be amended, then so be it..

The point being this-- just how often do such comments-- not have to later be amended?
If , posting here means having to wait several days to gather massive amounts of information gathered from many sources before daring to speak-, then count me out.
I'd rather speak my mind when logged on and be right some of the time than hold my words and wait days or weeks to express my opinion on a subject.
To me it is a simple matter of time (as in , some of us have not enough of it).
If one thinks they must play hold back, always be neutral -ultra cautious when the mass media and the dems/leftists flood every form of public communication at will and with never an apology for being wrong or outright lying, then they are playing it the way the dem/leftists want them to play it. Discussing topics that others have moved on from and thus nobody cares/listens or sees.
Myself, I see who are the villains, who are vermin and will not be told to play the waiting game or else be criticized for making comments that
later prove to have been in error , when more information surfaces.
If one must always wait- then this board is going to get mighty slow and threads mighty short.
My two cents worth, and nobody had to wait to see it....-Tyr

[Elessar]

I thought long and hard on how to further respond to this thread.

So I will follow up with this:

In 25 of my 37 years with the Coast Guard, I worked literally thousands
of Search and Rescue cases, some of which were pretty intense.

The intense ones got media attention and some 'reporter' would call up
for information, like how did it happen, anyone dead, and the sort.
I quit talking to the media and told them to contact Public Affairs after
one scribe misquoted me completely, and the District Commander, a Two-Star Admiral was livid.
Thank heavens we record all calls, which cleared me.

Behind closed doors working a case, we had to deal with speculation
at lot, based on weather, type of watercraft or aircraft involved, plus
pure experience. That is something that is not released to the press/media.

Making statements based on speculation is a real pot of trouble.
Instead, the rule of thumb was to only speak FACTS!

Most of the more recent media releases are based on a few things:
Be the first to release it, thus fomenting a seansation;
Utter only speculation without basis of FACT;
And come across with an unfounded personal opinion.