What Next for Iran?

[jimnyc]

So the deal is withdrawn from, no debate left there. So as I've been asking, where do we go from here? What do we and others expect? What would we like to see from Iran? What promises have they made in the past that we expect in the future? Add ICBM into the list of course, nukes of course, full unfettered access and authority to all sites, and guarantees out the ass. What else?

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What Next for Iran?

President Trump was good to his word, dumping the rotten Iran deal in the toughest possible way. First, he stated in so many words that the United States wanted regime change, not just a revised deal with the mullahs. Second, he warned that any nation assisting Iran's nuclear program also would face sanctions (it's not clear what would trigger such sanctions, which is going to worry the Europeans). Third, he showed contempt for European diplomacy by hailing Israel's acquisition of Iranian nuclear-weapons plans, something that the Europeans insisted had no bearing on the present deal.

You don't get tougher than that. Ronald Reagan must be opening champagne in heaven.

Now comes the tough part.

Iran's economy is a catastrophe, as I wrote more than a year ago--despite higher oil prices and despite the lifting of sanctions under the Obama deal. The Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) runs the country the way Al Capone ran Cicero, Illinois, and has left the banking and pension system bankrupt. There are frequent strikes, demonstrations, riots and other expressions of popular disgust at the regime. But the IRGC won't give up. If the domestic opposition gains power, they'll be hanged, and they can't flee the country, because they have no place to go.

Iran's massive campaign of ethnic cleansing in Syria is proceeding, after nearly half the population was driven from its homes, to be replaced by Shi'ite mercenaries imported by Iran. Russia isn't particularly committed to Iran's imperial ambitions but has no reason to interfere. That sets up a prospective war between Iran and Israel.

China, Russia, and Turkey (with some European collusion) will use the return to sanctions to put alternative currency and financing mechanisms into place, free from American interference. That's a lot harder than it sounds, but it represents a long-term threat to American power.

Iran doesn't want a real fight with Israel any time soon, as I explained this morning in Asia Times:


An Israeli-Iran war would not be a limited conflict. Both sides would attempt to destroy the other’s capacity to fight, and the odds for the moment favor Israel.

Two dozen Israeli missiles or bomber sorties could wipe out Iran’s economy in a matter of hours, and that makes a war unlikely for the time being. Fewer than a dozen power plants generate 60% of Iran’s electricity, and eight refineries produce 80% of its distillates. A single missile strike could disable each of these facilities, and bunker-buster bombs of the kind that Israel used last month in Lebanon would entirely destroy them. And as Hillel Frisch points out in the Jerusalem Post, with a bit more effort Israel could eliminate the Port of Kharg from which Iran exports 90% of its hydrocarbons.

Russia would be the biggest beneficiary of such a war, which would send the price oil flying. A Russian opposition leader suggested on background that Putin may help Israel attack Iran, for example by helping Israeli planes bypass Iran's Russian-built air defense system.

For the time being, nothing will happen. Iran will be cautious and look for leverage in Europe, Russia and China, avoiding a near-term military confrontation. Meanwhile the Revolutionary Guard will circle the wagons at home. President Rouhani warned that Iran could be ready to start enriching uranium again within three weeks if the deal fell apart. National Security Adviser John Bolton warned today that additional sanctions on Iran my follow the restoration of the present round. Sanctions, though, will not dissuade the Iranian regime from trying to build nuclear weapons.

If Iran attempts to build nuclear weapons or their components, the next step may be a surgical strike on its enrichment facilities.

Rest - https://pjmedia.com/spengler/what-next-for-iran/

https://i.imgur.com/QNFd2jo.jpg

[jimnyc]

A lot of things that Iran are up to, outside of the lame agreement, folks don't want to entertain often, just ignore Iran and their antics.

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Saved by our bold disrupter

Years ago, Henry Kissinger wisely observed that Iran had to decide “whether it wants to be a nation or a cause.”

Kissinger made that comment in 2006, and in the years since, Iran’s leaders have made their choice bloody obvious: Iran is a cause, and that cause is spreading a violent Shia revolution throughout the Mideast and across the world.

In making the decision to commit murder and mayhem abroad while oppressing their own people, the ruling mullahs sealed their fate with President Trump. Instead of using the sanctions relief they gained under the deal President Barack Obama negotiated to expand their economy and human rights at home, they used their cash windfall to develop a ballistic-missile program and spread terrorism throughout the region.

They daily threaten Israel with destruction and put proxy armies on Israel’s borders with Syria and Lebanon. They are trying to put Saudi Arabia in a similar vise by arming rebels in Yemen.

These and other aggressive actions made Trump’s decision an easy one.

In fact, nuking the nuke deal wasn’t just the best course. It was the only responsible and realistic course.

That’s not to say the president’s decision is risk-free. That option does not exist. But sometimes, and this is one of those times, the status quo is more dangerous than dramatic change.

As the president said, he is withdrawing from the pact not just because the terms are terrible, which they are. It’s also because the deal is too narrow and because Iran’s malignant behavior has actually gotten worse.

Rest - https://nypost.com/2018/05/08/saved-by-our-bold-disrupter/

[jimnyc]

Trump is exactly right about Iran's misdeeds

(CNN)Donald Trump pulling America out of the Iran nuclear deal is the biggest thing he's yet done on the international stage, with the greatest consequences. I understand entirely why people might feel nervous: Iran's warning that it is ready to start nuclear enrichment was frightening. But the President is, on balance, correct. Either the world deals with Iran now, or it deals with a nuclear Iran in the future.

The argument for keeping the deal going was reasonable: no one advocating the status quo was "weak" or trying to preserve their Obama-era legacy. But the deal amounted to bribing Iran to suspend its nuclear program, which is like feeding a wild animal scraps of meat to dissuade it from biting you. The deal lifted sanctions, threw the regime an economic lifeline and effectively recognized it as part of the international order. It moved toward the regularization of a pariah state.

The problem is that Iran's regime is not regular. Look at what it's been doing since the deal was signed. Even if uranium enrichment has been stopped, Tehran has continued, quite openly, to invest in its missile program. It has harassed foreign citizens.

It has also hugely expanded its power within the region, establishing a presence in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. Indeed, a country's attitude toward the Iran deal depends in part on its proximity to Iran. Israel, for instance, cannot tolerate its neighbors being turned into military colonies of a hostile foreign power. It feels vulnerable to attack.

If the deal stands as it is, there is a risk that it actually enables the emergence of Iran as a hegemonic power on the brink of attaining the bomb. It would have the same effect as the SALT treaties of the 70s, which were meant to limit Soviet arms growth, but in fact provided cover for the Soviets expanding into Africa, Central America and Asia.

It was the collapse of SALT and the early 80s arms race that really pushed the Soviets to the negotiating table, not détente -- and the same logic, I suspect, is applied by the Trump administration to Iran. Why give Iran money, and thus stability, just as its economy is teetering and its people are demonstrating in the streets?

Rest - https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/08/opinions/trump-is-exactly-right-about-irans-misdeeds-stanley/index.html