jimnyc
05-01-2018, 11:04 AM
The predictions of failure, that he would resign. This was more wishful thinking fueled by hatred, nothing more.
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Trump Confounds Critics Who Vowed He’d Soon Resign
President Trump deserves more credit than he has gained for at least one thing — outlasting his critics’ prediction of the length of his tenure.
In a post-election column published in the November 11, 2016, New York Times, David Brooks wrote, “the guy will probably resign or be impeached within a year.”
In August 2017, ghostwriter Tony Schwartz, who claims credit for Mr. Trump’s book “The Art of the Deal,” tweeted, “Would be amazed if he survives till end of the year. More likely resigns by fall, if not sooner.” That prediction was amplified at the time by news organizations such as CNN, the New York Times, and the Los Angeles Times, which covered it as news.
The actor and author Alec Baldwin told New York magazine in its August 7, 2017, number, “I don’t think he’s going to make it till the end of the year. I think he can’t take the ridicule. I think he’ll resign.” That prediction, too, was widely picked up by other outlets, including Vogue.
Having failed to accurately predict Mr. Trump’s exit during the first year of his presidency, the press, or at least some of its members, have proceeded to move the goalposts another 12 months down the calendar. “Will 2018 Be The End of the Trump Presidency?” asks a headline in Vanity Fair. The usual rule of thumb applies: If the headline has to be phrased as a question, the answer is “no.” Otherwise it would be just phrased as a statement: “2018 Will Be The End of The Trump Presidency.”
What fuels these inaccurate predictions?
Part of the problem is a mismatch between the short-term commercial incentives of journalism-as-entertainment and the longer-term commercial incentives of journalism-as-credible-information. As a headline, “Trump Will Resign” gets a lot of clicks. It feeds the escape fantasies of people who deeply dislike Mr. Trump. There are many of those people, and they spend a lot of time on the Internet.
In addition to the commercial incentives of click-chasing publishers, there are the career incentives of pundits. Make an outrageous prediction, or write up someone else’s bold prediction into a news article, and by the time that prediction fails to materialize into reality, most people will have forgotten about it. If the prediction turns out to be true, however, it can pay off big time.
Rest - https://www.nysun.com/national/trump-confounds-critics-who-vowed-early-end/90249/
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Trump Confounds Critics Who Vowed He’d Soon Resign
President Trump deserves more credit than he has gained for at least one thing — outlasting his critics’ prediction of the length of his tenure.
In a post-election column published in the November 11, 2016, New York Times, David Brooks wrote, “the guy will probably resign or be impeached within a year.”
In August 2017, ghostwriter Tony Schwartz, who claims credit for Mr. Trump’s book “The Art of the Deal,” tweeted, “Would be amazed if he survives till end of the year. More likely resigns by fall, if not sooner.” That prediction was amplified at the time by news organizations such as CNN, the New York Times, and the Los Angeles Times, which covered it as news.
The actor and author Alec Baldwin told New York magazine in its August 7, 2017, number, “I don’t think he’s going to make it till the end of the year. I think he can’t take the ridicule. I think he’ll resign.” That prediction, too, was widely picked up by other outlets, including Vogue.
Having failed to accurately predict Mr. Trump’s exit during the first year of his presidency, the press, or at least some of its members, have proceeded to move the goalposts another 12 months down the calendar. “Will 2018 Be The End of the Trump Presidency?” asks a headline in Vanity Fair. The usual rule of thumb applies: If the headline has to be phrased as a question, the answer is “no.” Otherwise it would be just phrased as a statement: “2018 Will Be The End of The Trump Presidency.”
What fuels these inaccurate predictions?
Part of the problem is a mismatch between the short-term commercial incentives of journalism-as-entertainment and the longer-term commercial incentives of journalism-as-credible-information. As a headline, “Trump Will Resign” gets a lot of clicks. It feeds the escape fantasies of people who deeply dislike Mr. Trump. There are many of those people, and they spend a lot of time on the Internet.
In addition to the commercial incentives of click-chasing publishers, there are the career incentives of pundits. Make an outrageous prediction, or write up someone else’s bold prediction into a news article, and by the time that prediction fails to materialize into reality, most people will have forgotten about it. If the prediction turns out to be true, however, it can pay off big time.
Rest - https://www.nysun.com/national/trump-confounds-critics-who-vowed-early-end/90249/