jimnyc
04-20-2018, 11:03 AM
I don't see how any potential meeting can be a failure. It can end with things no possibly worse then they stand today - but also stand to gain a ton if things go well.
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How Trump Can Win Big in North Korea
he stunning revelation this week that CIA Director Mike Pompeo met with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un over Easter weekend is a stark reminder that the pieces of the puzzle posed by a nuclear North Korea are moving rapidly. According to President Trump’s Wednesday morning tweet, “Meeting went very smoothly and a good relationship was formed…Denuclearization will be a great thing for World, but also for North Korea!”
Most national security experts have criticized Trump’s decision to meet face-to-face with the North Korean leader at the beginning, rather than the end, of a long diplomatic process, and are predicting that the meeting will be a failure. In contrast, I see the potential for a significant win for the U.S. While forecasts about the unknown future are inherently uncertain, I sense the possibility of what I call a “six-win solution.”
In the swirl of tweets and images, it is easy to lose sight of the contours of the fundamental challenge the U.S. faces. The ugly, inconvenient question most critics fail to consider is: Starting from this point in North Korea’s nuclear odyssey, what are the remaining feasible alternatives? As I wrote last November, for North Korea in 2018 there are only three realistic outcomes. First, Kim could complete additional ICBM tests that enable Pyongyang to credibly threaten American cities with nuclear strikes. Second, Trump could attack North Korea to prevent outcome No. 1. Or third, there could be what I called a “minor miracle.”
At this point, Trump and Kim have opened the door to the third possibility. Down that path it is already possible to see the outlines of an agreement that would allow both men to declare victory to the audience they care about most—at home. And this solution would also give South Korea’s Moon Jae-in, China’s Xi Jinping, Japan’s Shinzo Abe, and Russia’s Vladimir Putin victories of their own. Sensing this potential, and knowing how unpredictable both Trump and Kim can be, each leader is scrambling to demonstrate that he was not left out of what could be declared a historic agreement. In this context, Kim’s recent visit to Beijing, which caught some observers by surprise, was predictable—China doesn’t want to be cut out. And with Moon already scheduled to meet Kim later this month, watch Abe’s and Putin’s moves in the weeks ahead. Should the Trump-Kim summit lead to a concrete agreement, Trump—who famously promised “too much winning” during his campaign—could boast of a six-win deal.
Rest - https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/04/18/how-trump-can-win-big-in-north-korea-218009
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How Trump Can Win Big in North Korea
he stunning revelation this week that CIA Director Mike Pompeo met with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un over Easter weekend is a stark reminder that the pieces of the puzzle posed by a nuclear North Korea are moving rapidly. According to President Trump’s Wednesday morning tweet, “Meeting went very smoothly and a good relationship was formed…Denuclearization will be a great thing for World, but also for North Korea!”
Most national security experts have criticized Trump’s decision to meet face-to-face with the North Korean leader at the beginning, rather than the end, of a long diplomatic process, and are predicting that the meeting will be a failure. In contrast, I see the potential for a significant win for the U.S. While forecasts about the unknown future are inherently uncertain, I sense the possibility of what I call a “six-win solution.”
In the swirl of tweets and images, it is easy to lose sight of the contours of the fundamental challenge the U.S. faces. The ugly, inconvenient question most critics fail to consider is: Starting from this point in North Korea’s nuclear odyssey, what are the remaining feasible alternatives? As I wrote last November, for North Korea in 2018 there are only three realistic outcomes. First, Kim could complete additional ICBM tests that enable Pyongyang to credibly threaten American cities with nuclear strikes. Second, Trump could attack North Korea to prevent outcome No. 1. Or third, there could be what I called a “minor miracle.”
At this point, Trump and Kim have opened the door to the third possibility. Down that path it is already possible to see the outlines of an agreement that would allow both men to declare victory to the audience they care about most—at home. And this solution would also give South Korea’s Moon Jae-in, China’s Xi Jinping, Japan’s Shinzo Abe, and Russia’s Vladimir Putin victories of their own. Sensing this potential, and knowing how unpredictable both Trump and Kim can be, each leader is scrambling to demonstrate that he was not left out of what could be declared a historic agreement. In this context, Kim’s recent visit to Beijing, which caught some observers by surprise, was predictable—China doesn’t want to be cut out. And with Moon already scheduled to meet Kim later this month, watch Abe’s and Putin’s moves in the weeks ahead. Should the Trump-Kim summit lead to a concrete agreement, Trump—who famously promised “too much winning” during his campaign—could boast of a six-win deal.
Rest - https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/04/18/how-trump-can-win-big-in-north-korea-218009