Iowa Caucus poll (3 Threads Merged)

[avatar4321]

For what its worth

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070808/NEWS/70808020/1001


Romney widens lead, U of I poll shows
By ERIN JORDAN
REGISTER IOWA CITY BUREAU


August 8, 2007
9 Comments



Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is holding strong as the top candidate among likely Republican caucusgoers just days before the Iowa Straw Poll, according to a University of Iowa poll released Wednesday.

However, nearly one-third -- 31.1 percent -- of 303 Republicans likely to attend the Iowa caucuses remained undecided, according to the U of I poll conducted July 29-Aug. 5.

Romney, former Massachusetts governor, led his Republican competitors with 26.9 percent support from Republicans likely to attend the Iowa caucuses. Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani had 11.3 percent, followed by former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 6.5 percent, according to the poll.

Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., and Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan, both had 4.2 percent. McCain, with 3.2 percent, was the only remaining Republican with more than three percent support from likely Republican caucusgoers.

More than half -- 55.6 percent -- of likely Republican caucusgoers surveyed said they agreed with the statement “Mitt Romney is the Republicans’ strongest candidate.” This is an increase of more than 25 percent since a March U of I survey, the university reported.

Another 46.4 percent agreed that Giuliani is the strongest candidate, a decrease of 11 percent since March. Just below 30 percent of Republican caucusgoers agreed that Thompson is the strongest candidate. (Respondents were not asked about Thompson in March.)

Only 14.9 percent agreed that McCain is the strongest candidate, a decrease of more than 22 percent since March. Only 12.6 percent considered Brownback the strongest candidate.

More than 72 percent of Republican caucusgoers with a candidate preference said they were “very” or “somewhat” likely to change their caucus preference. Only 26 percent said they were not at all likely to change. In comparison, 33 percent of Democratic caucus goers said they were not likely to change their preference.

The margin of error for the Republican caucusgoer subsample is +/-5.5 percent.

[red states rule]

For what its worth

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070808/NEWS/70808020/1001

It will be an interesting weekend

[Pale Rider]

For what its worth

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070808/NEWS/70808020/1001

Giuliani can kiss my ass. He turned NYC into a sanctuary city for illegals.

Romney, he thinks illegals should get emergency health care and education, and both what Giuliani and Romney propose is straight off the backs of the LEGAL American tax payers.

Fuck 'em both.

[red states rule]

Giuliani can kiss my ass. He turned NYC into a sanctuary city for illegals.

Romney, he thinks illegals should get emergency health care and education, and both what Giuliani and Romney propose is straight off the backs of the LEGAL American tax payers.

Fuck 'em both.

Events cause politicians to change their views

from the NY Times.....

snip

But now he is running for president, and the politics of immigration in the post-9/11 world is vastly different, with the issue splitting the Republican Party and voters peppering Mr. Giuliani on the campaign trail with questions about his current thinking. Perhaps more than any other candidate, Mr. Giuliani has a record on immigration with the potential to complicate his bid for the nomination.

When Mr. Giuliani was asked to clarify his views on immigration at the town meeting, he emphasized enforcing the law but stayed away from any kind of blanket condemnation of illegal immigrants.

Mr. Giuliani’s approach is similar to the one proposed by President Bush, advocating an orderly flow of immigrants by providing a clear path to citizenship and thereby easing the pressure at the border.

Like Mr. Bush, Mr. Giuliani emphasizes the need for tough border controls. He said he wanted to help those who are already in America become citizens, but he is quick to highlight that he is not in favor of amnesty, which leading Republican candidates dare not endorse.

“First thing is, there should be no amnesty,” Mr. Giuliani said in response to a reporter’s question in Atlanta recently. Amnesty means varying things to various candidates. For Mr. Giuliani, it means no blanket forgiveness of illegal status.

Immigration has been a difficult issue for all the major Republican candidates, and they have responded to it in notably different ways.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/us/politics/22giuliani.html?ex=1186891200&en=ca132b777ba072fe&ei=5070

[red states rule]

For what its worth

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070808/NEWS/70808020/1001

The NY Times does not like the mid west folks


Gail Collins of the Times Finds Iowans Ineffably Droll
By Mark Finkelstein | August 11, 2007 - 17:20 ET
Actual op-ed column, or parody of Upper West Side liberal mockery of Middle America? You be the judge of this p.p.v. opus today by Gail Collins, New York Times columnist turned Editorial Page Editor now returned to her column-writing roots. We'll begin with the title, Republicans in the Straw, and proceed to these excerpts:


Today 40,000 Republicans are expected to make a pilgrimage to a large tent in Ames, Iowa, where they will eat an enormous amount of free food and vote for a presidential candidate. Mitt Romney is going to serve barbecue, and one of his sons has just visited all 99 counties. I don’t think we need say more.
Romney moves around with so many photogenic sons, daughters-in-law and grandchildren that they look like one of those singing families that were so popular in the ’70s.
The Iowa State Fair is not actually about politics so much as about finding new things to deep-fry.
the line of people waiting to see Harry Potter carved in butter snaked around the Agriculture Building. Since the statue itself is behind glass for climate-control reasons, the scene strongly resembled the viewing of the Pietà in the Vatican.
the traditional Butter Cow which has to be there whether it really fits the theme or not. This was all the work of Sarah Doyle Pratt, a 30-year-old elementary school teacher, who apprenticed under the legendary Norma “Duffy” Lyon, creator of the never-to-be-forgotten all-butter Last Supper.
Truly, if you are into art forms based on dairy products, you have to go to Iowa.
Personally, I’m only in Iowa for the butter sculpture, and I’d be happy to be diverted if, say, Arkansas challenged its voters to pile up watermelons for their favorite Republican, or Kansas did a Candidate Winnowing. Winners will be judged on originality and public participation.
Extra points for carving things out of local produce.

I don't know if Collins is an aficionado of the Hamptons, Nantucket or perhaps Martha's Vineyard. But whatever the venue, it's not hard to imagine the Times columnist regaling her sophisticated friends with tales of those amusing bumpkins of the heartland.

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/mark-finkelstein/2007/08/11/gail-collins-times-finds-iowans-ineffably-droll

[Pale Rider]

Tandredo came in forth in the recent Iowa straw poll, with only 626 votes separating him and second place. Just goes to show, republicans DO like his staunch message of no amnesty for illegals, and, that puts him right in the thick of it as a serious contender for the nomination.

I think the ONLY reason Romney is in the lead is because of all the money and campaigning he's done.

And Giuliani, I think the more people hear about him, the more his popularity will sink. He's already done as far as I'm concerned. I'd never vote for him. He's a pro abortion, illegal alien sympathizer, liberal.

[red states rule]

Tandredo came in forth in the recent Iowa straw poll, with only 626 votes separating him and second place. Just goes to show, republicans DO like his staunch message of no amnesty for illegals, and, that puts him right in the thick of it as a serious contender for the nomination.

I think the ONLY reason Romney is in the lead is because of all the money and campaigning he's done.

And Giuliani, I think the more people hear about him, the more his popularity will sink. He's already done as far as I'm concerned. I'd never vote for him. He's a pro abortion, illegal alien sympathizer, liberal.

Gee, you really think spending money and campaigning gets you votes in a election?

[red states rule]

While Mitt won, the rest of the results are interesting and going to shake things up perhaps

Romney wins GOP straw poll in Iowa
By Stephen Dinan
August 12, 2007


AMES, Iowa — Mitt Romney won yesterday's Iowa Republican Party straw poll, but the best showing went to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, whose strong second-place finish gives him a much-needed boost going forward.

"When it got to be about the message, not about money, we were going to do well," Mr. Huckabee said, gleefully touting the fact that his showing came by spending a small fraction of what Mr. Romney spent.

Mr. Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, carried 31.5 percent of the 14,302 votes cast in the nonbinding poll, while Mr. Huckabee grabbed 18.1 percent. Third place went to Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas with 15.3 percent, and Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado was fourth with 13.7 percent.

"This important victory sends a signal to grass-roots Republican activists across the country that we are working hard to earn their support and that we are ready to begin the work of strengthening our economy, our military and our families," Mr. Romney said.

With his resources and extensive campaign operation, Mr. Romney's victory was never in doubt. He is now well-positioned for Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses expected in January, the opening contest of the presidential-nominating season.

Rounding out the field yesterday were Rep. Ron Paul of Texas in fifth, followed by former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy G. Thompson, former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, Rep. Duncan Hunter of California, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Chicago businessman John Cox.

Fred Thompson is still only contemplating a run, while Mr. McCain and Mr. Giuliani refused to participate officially in the straw poll. When Mr. McCain's poor showing was announced, the crowd cheered.

For Tommy Thompson the showing could be the end of his campaign. He put in a substantial amount of effort here and said several times leading up to yesterday's vote that he would probably have to drop out if he didn't finish first or second.

for the complete article

http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070812/NATION/108120053/1001

[avatar4321]

Gee, you really think spending money and campaigning gets you votes in a election?

only because it gets ones name out there.

[red states rule]

only because it gets ones name out there.

I thought that was the point when you are running for public office

[nevadamedic]

Official results from Iowa straw poll
MITT ROMNEY 4,516 VOTES 31.6%

MIKE HUCKABEE 2,587 VOTES 18.1%

SAM BROWNBACK 2,192 VOTES 15.3%

TOM TANCREDO 1,961 VOTES 13.7%

RON PAUL 1,305 VOTES 9.1%

TOMMY THOMPSON 1,039 VOTES 7.3%

FRED THOMPSON 203 VOTES 1.4%

RUDY GIULIANI 183 VOTES 1.3%

DUNCAN HUNTER 174 VOTES 1.2%

JOHN MCCAIN 101 VOTES .7%

JOHN COX 41 VOTES .3%

14,302 TOTAL BALLOTS CAST

[red states rule]

I wonder how many candidates will drop out in the next few days?

[red states rule]

Tandredo came in forth in the recent Iowa straw poll, with only 626 votes separating him and second place. Just goes to show, republicans DO like his staunch message of no amnesty for illegals, and, that puts him right in the thick of it as a serious contender for the nomination.

I think the ONLY reason Romney is in the lead is because of all the money and campaigning he's done.

And Giuliani, I think the more people hear about him, the more his popularity will sink. He's already done as far as I'm concerned. I'd never vote for him. He's a pro abortion, illegal alien sympathizer, liberal.



Party pooper

By: Jonathan Martin
Aug 11, 2007 12:29 PM EST



AMES, Iowa -- The Republican Party faces serious peril heading into next year, and Mitt Romney plainly knows it.

On the eve of the Iowa GOP's straw poll here -- the political event which traditionally kicks off contested Republican presidential races, and which Romney won handily -- Romney's concern about his party’s damaged brand in the wake of the Bush years was on obvious display, along with some hints about his strategy for dealing with it.

In a Friday evening interview, Romney made the case that the 2008 race will hinge on the individual qualities of candidates, not their partisan labels. “I think [when] people get to know the individuals, they care less about the letter after their name and a lot more about them and their vision and their hopes for the country and what they can do,” Romney said.

This is the kind of rhetoric candidates typically use in circumstances -- such as with Republicans in Northeast states or Democrats in the South -- when running on their party name is a political impossibility.

The challenge Romney faces this year, separating himself from an unpopular incumbent and an unpopular party, without explicitly repudiating either, is a familiar one for him. He did much the same in winning the governorship in Massachusetts in 2002.

Now, as then, Romney is hoping to promote himself less as a Republican than as a reformer and outsider, capable of cleaning up a squalid political system. “Frankly, the only thing I’d be worried about having behind my name is ‘United States Senator,’ Romney said. "Somebody who's been in Washington, that’s the challenge.”

Romney’s positioning comes at a time when an overwhelming majority of Americans tell pollsters that they would prefer a Democrat to succeed President Bush and when the only things lower than the incumbent’s approval ratings are those of Congress.

But his language also reflects conservative discontent with the GOP leadership and could signal an attempt by Romney to use the considerable attention garnered by his near-certain straw poll victory today to take an even more aggressive posture in portraying himself as an agent of change.

Asked specifically what he meant when he said in a clip on his website this week that the nonbinding contest here would mark “an important step in turning around our country,” the former Massachusetts governor carefully avoided criticizing Bush, instead training his fire on the political establishment.

“Washington is broken,” Romney declared as freight trains whistled by just a few feet behind him in the parking lot of his local headquarters here. “Washington is unable to deal with the real challenges we have.” He cited immigration and spending, the two issues grassroots Republicans are most angry at their own party about.

But Romney also broadened his indictment. “Washington has not deal with the inadequacy of our health insurance system,” or Asian economic competition, he complained. Also, he said, “our effort against jihad needs to be expanded to include not just our military, though we need to strengthen our military, but also our non-military resources.”

Romney’s bipartisan complaint is strikingly similar to the language he used the last time he ran in an uphill contest for the GOP. "I’m very clear [to] the people across the commonwealth that my ‘R’ doesn't stand so much for Republican as it does for reform,” Romney said in his successful 2002 Massachusetts gubernatorial bid.

for the complete article

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0807/5341.html

[red states rule]

Mitt's Show [Rich Lowry]


Right after the candidates had lined up on the stage and they all had to leave again so Mitt could stay and give the first speech, they filed off and Mitt shook each of their hands like he was thanking them for coming to his party—which, in a sense, they had. Mitt's presentation walked the fine line, as he campaign often does, between the endearingly hokey and the off-puttingly cheesy. Not surprisingly, he's very, very, very fond of Iowa. I'm not sure whether I want to hear about whether he's in his wife's "wildest dreams" or not, but, in general the more he highlights Ann the better. His speech was solid, standard-issue conservative fare, hitting on the three legs of the stool—the military, economy, and families. He talked about them all in terms of "strength" (also a Giuliani theme, of course). I was favorably impressed, as I have been before, by his forthright talk on illegitimacy; he's one of the few major politicians who will talk about it. By the end, he was beginning to rush and his voice got a little hoarse and it was hard to keep up with the gusher of hope, optimism, and freedom. Then, he launched into one of his staples—the uplifting Salt Lake Olympics story. I had heard this one before, but it's still a good one. Bringing up Ann when he was done was SOP. Bringing up the Olympic athlete was a bit much. Bringing up his entire family was overkill. But it's his show, so why not?

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NGQzOTBlMjE0MTZjOTA5MDcyMjQ5MWExMWI1MmFiY2I=

[red states rule]

Who will be the first one to drop out?

Weeding-out process starts today in Ames Iowa straw poll to test candidates' viability
Poll is expected to prune weaker GOP contenders

By THOMAS BEAUMONT
REGISTER STAFF WRITER

August 11, 2007


The journey to Ames ends today.

Never mind the interpretations the Iowa Republican Party's presidential straw poll results will produce; the event marks the end of the first phase of the 2008 GOP campaign - and, likely, the end for some of its participants, too.

"What the straw poll is going to do is weed out some of the field," said Roger Hughes, a former Hamilton County Republican chairman, who helped devise the GOP fundraising event and early Iowa test 30 years ago.

Before the Ames event weeds out the field, tens of thousands of Iowa Republicans will brave scorching summer heat to rub shoulders with some of the party's candidates, gorge themselves on free food, listen to entertainers lined up by various candidates, hear what an assortment of interest groups are saying, and have a chance to cast a ballot for any of 11 Republican prospects for the presidency.

Part festival, part pep rally, the straw poll is hardly an accurate measure of caucus support. Of the 30,000 people who are expected to attend today, most will have received their $35 tickets from one of the campaigns.

What the straw poll will demonstrate is which campaigns are best able to mobilize their supporters for this pre-caucus drill.

The run-up to the straw poll has produced a bitter fight between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the clear favorite who has invested the most in preparing for the nonbinding vote, and Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, who hopes to leave Ames as the candidate favored by Iowa social conservatives.

Also planning to attend the event are candidates John Cox of Illinois, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, U.S. Reps. Duncan Hunter of California, Ron Paul of Texas and Tom Tancredo of Colorado, and former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson.

The Ames event is a money-raiser for the Iowa Republican Party, with the GOP expecting to take in $1 million. The campaigns have each paid about $15,000 for their tent spaces outside Hilton Coliseum.

Despite its significance as the largest gathering of Republicans before the party's 2008 national convention in Minneapolis, the straw poll has endured doubts about its significance this year - especially since well-known candidates Rudy Giuliani and John McCain decided to stay away from Hilton Coliseum.

Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City, will be idle in New York today. McCain, a senator from Arizona, will be campaigning in New Hampshire, aides said.

Likewise, former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, who is planning to announce his candidacy in the coming weeks, will steer clear of the sweating throngs in Ames, although all three no-shows will be on the straw poll's ballot.

Romney has the most riding on the straw poll, and he hopes to meet the high bar he has set by his heavy financial investment in preparing for the event. Romney has paid a consultant roughly $200,000 to carry out his straw poll plan.

He has tried to control expectations in recent weeks in an attempt to avoid an underwhelming performance. But Romney's campaign also has been conducting an automated telephone campaign to encourage non-Republicans to attend the Ames event.

Giuliani aides sought to heap on the pressure by suggesting that Romney could win the voting today by an 8-to-1 margin over the second-place finisher.

for the complete article

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070811/NEWS09/708110338/1056

[nevadamedic]

I wonder how many candidates will drop out in the next few days?

None, it's a BS poll anyways.

[red states rule]

None, it's a BS poll anyways.

Time will tell. Many are low on money and can't break out of the pack

[Gunny]

Time will tell. Many are low on money and can't break out of the pack

And it's a good thing that is the determining factor in what choices we get as candidates.:rolleyes:

[red states rule]

And it's a good thing that is the determining factor in what choices we get as candidates.:rolleyes:


The field will start to narrow soon

[Black Lance]

The field will start to narrow soon

This may be the death knell for Tommy Thompson, who has spent much money in Iowa and didn't have much to begin with, but other than that this will just give Romney and Brownback a marginal boost due to the media coverage.

The poll, however, is indeed bullshit. Most of the voters were brought to the event by the candidates, and since Guliania and McCain didn't participate (and therefore probably didn't pay to bring very many voters) it's highly unlikely that the outcome of this poll is representative of actual opinion in the state. What the outcome of this poll does tell us, however, is which candidates have a good campaign system set up in Iowa. Romney seems to have set-up an excellent system, and may be able win the state.

[Pale Rider]

When Mr. McCain's poor showing was announced, the crowd cheered.

- - - :laugh: - - - :lol: - - - :laugh: - - -

[gabosaurus]

Has anyone here actually took the time to realize what the Iowa "caucus" was? If you haven't, allow me to explain it to you:
In order to vote, you had to:
**Physically travel to the site of the caucus
**Show proof of living in Iowa
**Pay $35 to get in and participate

How is this supposed to represent the true opinions of Iowa Republicans?

[avatar4321]

Has anyone here actually took the time to realize what the Iowa "caucus" was? If you haven't, allow me to explain it to you:
In order to vote, you had to:
**Physically travel to the site of the caucus
**Show proof of living in Iowa
**Pay $35 to get in and participate

How is this supposed to represent the true opinions of Iowa Republicans?

Its not supposed to. its supposed to show on the ground organization and provide the leading candidates with name recognition to get people to look at them. There is still months before the real caucus.

I know its difficult to understand for the Democrats who dont really have much differences between canidates. But this poll is a post for Romney, Huckabee, Brownback, and Tancredo. It gets their name out there and shows peoplpe they have the organization necessary.

[red states rule]

- - - :laugh: - - - :lol: - - - :laugh: - - -

McDone will be gone soon - and the cheers will get louder

[Black Lance]

Tommy Thompson drops Presidential bid.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070813/ap_on_el_pr/tommy_thompson2008_9

MILWAUKEE - Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson said Sunday he is dropping out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination after finishing sixth in an Iowa straw poll.

"I have no regrets about running," he said in a statement released Sunday evening by his campaign.

"I felt my record as Governor of Wisconsin and Secretary of Health and Human Services gave me the experience I needed to serve as president, but I respect the decision of the voters. I am leaving the campaign trail today, but I will not leave the challenges of improving health care and welfare in America."

The statement was issued several hours after WITI-TV in Milwaukee reported that Thompson, 65, told one of its reporters he was withdrawing.

"I have very much enjoyed my years in public service and I am comforted by the fact that I think I made a difference for people during that time," Thompson said in the campaign announcement. "I hope to continue working to serve others over the next few years."

The statement said Thompson intends to take some time off before returning to the private sector and his nonprofit work.

He had said before the Iowa event that he would drop out of the race unless he finished first or second.

The statement didn't say whether he would endorse another candidate.

A veteran of four successful campaigns for governor of Wisconsin, had a good track record of winning elections.

He quit during his fourth term as governor to serve as President Bush's secretary of Health and Human Services from 2001 to the end of 2004.

He was first elected in 1966 at age 24 to the Wisconsin State Assembly, not long after he graduated from the University of Wisconsin. Twenty years later, he won his first term as governor.

As governor, he earned a national reputation for policies that moved many Wisconsin families from welfare to work, gave minority families more options on where they could send children to school by giving religious and private schools up to $5,000 per student and expanded health care to include thousands of the working poor who had not previously qualified for current government programs. He pushed for changes in welfare laws before President Clinton and Congress took up the issue on the national level.

Critics, however, charged the primary aim of Thompson's welfare reforms was merely to get people off Wisconsin's rolls and not necessarily to lift families out of poverty

Born in Elroy, Wis., Thompson boasted about his small-town background. His father ran a gas station and a country grocery store.

Thompson's time heading the Department of Health and Human Services was marked by anthrax attacks, a flu vaccine shortage and passage of the Medicare prescription law. Thompson was a key player in Bush's AIDS initiative, a commitment of $15 billion over five years for treatment and prevention of the disease that was rapidly spreading overseas. Thompson traveled frequently to Africa during his Cabinet service.

A fan of Milwaukee-based Harley-Davidson, Thompson has long taken an annual motorcycle trip with lawmakers, motorcycle enthusiasts and campaign supporters.

He touted his background as a Midwest governor and former HHS secretary as valuable credentials for a presidential candidate

[5stringJeff]

Has anyone here actually took the time to realize what the Iowa "caucus" was? If you haven't, allow me to explain it to you:
In order to vote, you had to:
**Physically travel to the site of the caucus
**Show proof of living in Iowa
**Pay $35 to get in and participate

How is this supposed to represent the true opinions of Iowa Republicans?

That's why it's called a straw poll. However, here's something telling: Mitt Romney used campaign money to pay the $35 fee for his supporters, while Mike Huckabee did not, due to lack of funds (I believe Brownback and Tancredo also could not pay for their voters). So Huckabee's voters had that much more of a 'hump' to overcome to vote for him over Romney, which makes Romney's victory look even more underwhelming.

[Pale Rider]

McDone will be gone soon - and the cheers will get louder

I was actually very surprized to see him running in the first place. How many times does he have to be told by the American people that we just don't want him?

Get a clue Johnny... most of us know you're a damn closet liberal.

[Pale Rider]

That's why it's called a straw poll. However, here's something telling: Mitt Romney used campaign money to pay the $35 fee for his supporters, while Mike Huckabee did not, due to lack of funds (I believe Brownback and Tancredo also could not pay for their voters). So Huckabee's voters had that much more of a 'hump' to overcome to vote for him over Romney, which makes Romney's victory look even more underwhelming.

No doubt. I think Romney's "lead" is made up of quite a bit of "straw" too.

[red states rule]

I was actually very surprized to see him running in the first place. How many times does he have to be told by the American people that we just don't want him?

Get a clue Johnny... most of us know you're a damn closet liberal.

and the libral media "reports" it is over his stance on the Iraq war and NOT illegal immigration