jimnyc
11-07-2016, 05:14 PM
Late-Breaking Polls: Republicans Likely to Keep the Senate
On the eve of the 2016 election, polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight predicts a Republican Senate win, at 54 percent. According to their latest update, Democrats are likely to pick up two seats in the U.S. Senate, but that will not give them the majority they seek. This might be particularly surprising, given the same site gives Hillary Clinton a 69 percent chance of winning the presidency.
Every two years, roughly one third of the seats in the U.S. Senate are up for re-election. This year, the seats which mostly Republicans won in the Tea Party wave of 2010 are once again in jeopardy. Democrats expected to make a major dent in the Republican majority won in 2014, but their chances of doing so — even with the immensely unpopular Donald Trump leading Republicans — are quickly vanishing.
Like Republicans in 2014, Democrats were able to assemble a competitive slate of challengers: a sitting governor, former senators, a former secretary of State, and more than a couple veterans. Unfortunately for them, most incumbents have run strong campaigns.
In the Ohio race, which was supposed to be close, Republican Senator Rob Portman has a hefty 18 percent lead over Democrat former Governor Ted Strickland, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Portman distanced himself from Trump early, and Strickland did not have the best record as the state's governor. His tax and regulatory policies sent jobs to other states. During the campaign, he even declared that "the death of Scalia saved labor." Ouch.
Here are the ten seats which RealClearPolitics rates as "lean" or "tossup," and one more which could go Republican or Democrat. These eleven states are the ones to watch tomorrow, ranging from least to most competitive. With each state I have included the FiveThirtyEight projection, R for Republican, D for Democrat.
Rest here - https://pjmedia.com/election/2016/11/07/fivethirtyeight-republicans-likely-to-keep-the-senate/
On the eve of the 2016 election, polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight predicts a Republican Senate win, at 54 percent. According to their latest update, Democrats are likely to pick up two seats in the U.S. Senate, but that will not give them the majority they seek. This might be particularly surprising, given the same site gives Hillary Clinton a 69 percent chance of winning the presidency.
Every two years, roughly one third of the seats in the U.S. Senate are up for re-election. This year, the seats which mostly Republicans won in the Tea Party wave of 2010 are once again in jeopardy. Democrats expected to make a major dent in the Republican majority won in 2014, but their chances of doing so — even with the immensely unpopular Donald Trump leading Republicans — are quickly vanishing.
Like Republicans in 2014, Democrats were able to assemble a competitive slate of challengers: a sitting governor, former senators, a former secretary of State, and more than a couple veterans. Unfortunately for them, most incumbents have run strong campaigns.
In the Ohio race, which was supposed to be close, Republican Senator Rob Portman has a hefty 18 percent lead over Democrat former Governor Ted Strickland, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Portman distanced himself from Trump early, and Strickland did not have the best record as the state's governor. His tax and regulatory policies sent jobs to other states. During the campaign, he even declared that "the death of Scalia saved labor." Ouch.
Here are the ten seats which RealClearPolitics rates as "lean" or "tossup," and one more which could go Republican or Democrat. These eleven states are the ones to watch tomorrow, ranging from least to most competitive. With each state I have included the FiveThirtyEight projection, R for Republican, D for Democrat.
Rest here - https://pjmedia.com/election/2016/11/07/fivethirtyeight-republicans-likely-to-keep-the-senate/