Sunday IBD/TIPP, last before election

[jimnyc]

Don't forget, Mikey Mike, most accurate polling in history, even above that of Silver. Even if I do believe things are over and Hillary will win. Just saying! LOL And don't forget the last one from crazy La La Land at the bottom either. I believe the reason that we see such a 180 in polls from out there - drugs!!

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Trump Leads Clinton By 1 Point With 2 Days Left: IBD/TIPP Poll

Donald Trump has moved into the lead over Hillary Clinton, 44% to 43% with two days left before Election Day, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll. And the number of states in play is expanding.

The GOP and Democratic nominees had been tied for the prior four days. Libertarian Party pick Gary Johnson is at 5% while the Green Party's Jill Stein is at 2%.

The readings for all candidates are the same in the unrounded IBD/TIPP poll data. A day earlier, Clinton led by 0.5 point.

In a head-to-head matchup excluding third-party candidates, Clinton is ahead by 1.5 points, 45.3% to 43.8%, but that's down from 2.6 points a day earlier.

The poll of 903 likely voters from Nov. 2-5 reflects a weighted response of 309 Democrats, 289 Republicans and 247 independent and "other" voters. It has a margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points.

The Real Clear Politics average of nine recent national polls as of early Sunday morning has Clinton up by 2.1 points in a four-way race. But it was 7.1 points as recently as Oct. 17.

Clinton had appeared on her way to victory until FBI Director James Comey disclosed on Oct. 28 that his agency was reopening its criminal investigation regarding Clinton's use of a private email server while secretary of state.

As national polls have tightened, Trump has closed the gap in several key states.

Fresh surveys in states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire and Colorado suggest that they may be in reach for the GOP nominee. Meanwhile, Real Clear Politics labels traditionally Republican states Arizona and Georgia as tossups.

Veteran election watcher Charlie Cook has backed away from his prediction less than two weeks ago that the race is "over."

"The race is in a different place than 8 or 9 days ago when there was virtually no path for Trump," the publisher of the Cook Political Report told The Hill on Saturday. "So yes, like everyone else, we've revised our assessment."

Trump has multiple paths to winning the White House. But he does need to win most of the battleground states, whereas Clinton only needs a few.
Cross-Country Campaigning

Both candidates are making multi-state stops daily to drive up turnout. Trump was in Florida, Nevada and Colorado Saturday, while Clinton made stops in Florida and Pennsylvania.

Early voting is heavier than ever in many states. Latino turnout appears to have been very strong so far in Nevada, prompting longtime local political reporter Jon Ralston to say that dooms Trump's chances in the Silver State. The RCP poll average shows Trump ahead by 2 points in Nevada.

In Reno Saturday evening, Secret Service agents rushed Trump off stage when a crowd thought a man holding a "Republicans Against Trump" sign had a gun. Secret Service found no firearm.

As for Clinton, heavy rain cut short a morning speech in Florida.

"My friends, you are a hearty bunch standing out here in the rain. I don't think I need to tell you all of the wrong things about Donald Trump," she said.

That evening she held an event in Philadelphia, where Katy Perry sang on her behalf. That followed a Friday night stop in Cleveland where music power couple Jay-Z and Beyoncé performed.

Trump said in Colorado Saturday night that such celebrity events are "demeaning to the political process."

Clinton will be back in Philadelphia for an election eve rally with President Obama and his wife Michelle.

That could mark some concern in the Clinton camp about Pennsylvania. But it's also one of the battleground states that doesn't have much early voting.

Michigan is another such state. Trump will campaign there Monday. Clinton and Obama will hold rallies in Michigan that day too. Ex-President Bill Clinton will stump there Sunday.

The Clinton campaign and allied groups have more money and organization to help get out the vote, while Trump is relying on his own star power and supporters' greater enthusiasm for their candidate.
Independents Favor Trump

Trump needs to win swing voters by a wide margin to sweep to victory. In the latest IBD/TIPP poll, he leads independents by 9 points, 40%-31%.

Notably, Johnson gets 12% of this key group and Stein 5%. Will independents actually pull the lever for third-party candidates, especially in tossup states where the outcome is in doubt?

Meanwhile, Trump leads among men 50%-38%, while Clinton leads among women, 48%-38%. She dominates with single women, 59%-25%, but married women favor Trump, 49%-38%.

http://www.investors.com/politics/donald-trump-leads-hillary-clinton-with-more-states-in-play-ibdtipp-poll/


Where the presidential race stands today

http://i.imgur.com/xAdJ7Kn.jpg

[OCA]

I prefer at this time to look at the state polls since we elect based upon the electoral college. A national lead is nice but unless it translates into battleground state wins it's meaningless.

[jimnyc]

I prefer at this time to look at the state polls since we elect based upon the electoral college. A national lead is nice but unless it translates into battleground state wins it's meaningless.

I prefer to post things like I did, because it gives me meaningless hope. LOL I think, for a few reasons, this election was completely wrapped up as of like 5 weeks ago. Of course I enjoy the polls and the back and forth, but I think things were over when we saw various lack of actions at times or similar. There are times when you just 'know'. And yeah, I know the states are more complicated than just a statewide poll in many instances...

I know who you "used" to be, and what you stood for and what not. I don't think you will enjoy the long term results of all of this. The folks being crooked in Washington has always pissed me off. But now we will have the T-Rex of crooked folks rolling down and back into the WH. All of the back and forth from folks here will eventually turn into reality. And then long term, that reality will lead to much harm to the nation. I truly believe that, this will be a history book changer.

[OCA]

I prefer to post things like I did, because it gives me meaningless hope. LOL I think, for a few reasons, this election was completely wrapped up as of like 5 weeks ago. Of course I enjoy the polls and the back and forth, but I think things were over when we saw various lack of actions at times or similar. There are times when you just 'know'. And yeah, I know the states are more complicated than just a statewide poll in many instances...

I know who you "used" to be, and what you stood for and what not. I don't think you will enjoy the long term results of all of this. The folks being crooked in Washington has always pissed me off. But now we will have the T-Rex of crooked folks rolling down and back into the WH. All of the back and forth from folks here will eventually turn into reality. And then long term, that reality will lead to much harm to the nation. I truly believe that, this will be a history book changer.

Nah the nation will go on along it's corrupted train line. Nothing will be done, the system will still chug along. Congressmen and others in D.C. on both sides of the aisle will play partisan games and line their pockets with gold because in reality they don't give a shit about you or i only our vote......unless you were a major donor.

Americans won't do anything as long as their ipads and phones work and technology continues to escalate.......i mean this isn't 1700's revolutionary America.

[OCA]

People here see what civil war looks like in places like Syria etc etc and it ain't pretty, nobody here wants that and therefore nobody is going to do jackshit despite all the big talk.

[jimnyc]

People here see what civil war looks like in places like Syria etc etc and it ain't pretty, nobody here wants that and therefore nobody is going to do jackshit despite all the big talk.

Dude, you are delusional if you think there are folks on the right trying to plan or do anything like that here. The ONLY folks I have seen get out of control in any fashion has been the lefties. It's lame shit, certainly nothing on the level of that overseas shit, but I'm just saying I mostly see it from the left. And as we get closer and closer, the more information has been leaking showing that they have even planned and had $$ injected from folks like Soros to help arrange things.

[OCA]

Dude, you are delusional if you think there are folks on the right trying to plan or do anything like that here. The ONLY folks I have seen get out of control in any fashion has been the lefties. It's lame shit, certainly nothing on the level of that overseas shit, but I'm just saying I mostly see it from the left. And as we get closer and closer, the more information has been leaking showing that they have even planned and had $$ injected from folks like Soros to help arrange things.

I'm talking post election, the web is replete with videos of people promising assassination. I saw an interview, no link fucker, on some news show, secret service guy, said their numbers of people they've had to visit this year on both sides is up like 500%.......lol

[jimnyc]

I'm talking post election, the web is replete with videos of people promising assassination. I saw an interview, no link fucker, on some news show, secret service guy, said their numbers of people they've had to visit this year on both sides is up like 500%.......lol

Well, this has been the worst election season ever. But the majority of demonstrations I have seen, the acts out to "get" the potential president, these were almost all younger folks acting out about Trump. Regardless, I simply don't see post election violence. I think we are starting to see more and more "internet tough guys" out there. Could be that some violence happens as a result, but I really don't see it.

[OCA]

Well, this has been the worst election season ever. But the majority of demonstrations I have seen, the acts out to "get" the potential president, these were almost all younger folks acting out about Trump. Regardless, I simply don't see post election violence. I think we are starting to see more and more "internet tough guys" out there. Could be that some violence happens as a result, but I really don't see it.

I hope you are right, gotta see a guy about something Wednesday wink 😉

[OCA]

Holy cow RCP this morning had her at 72% to win but this announcement put her up to 82%.

[jimnyc]

Holy cow RCP this morning had her at 72% to win but this announcement put her up to 82%.

I don't think a single person in the world hasn't made up their mind about these 2. The rest is analysts like the above rest to have fun with the numbers - so that assholes like us can have shit to fight about until things are over.

[OCA]

I don't think a single person in the world hasn't made up their mind about these 2. The rest is analysts like the above rest to have fun with the numbers - so that assholes like us can have shit to fight about until things are over.

And i am an asshole!:finger4:

[aboutime]

And i am an asshole!:finger4:


Finally OCA. You said something we can all agree with here.

[Black Diamond]

I don't think a single person in the world hasn't made up their mind about these 2. The rest is analysts like the above rest to have fun with the numbers - so that assholes like us can have shit to fight about until things are over.

Aren't there still undecideds?

[OCA]

Finally OCA. You said something we can all agree with here.

Even at asshole level i'm 2 rungs up on the ladder from ya, plus i'm from the master race so there is that.

[aboutime]

Even at asshole level i'm 2 rungs up on the ladder from ya, plus i'm from the master race so there is that.


Master race? Oh, excuse me. So you are a MASTER ASSHOLE. Bet you play a lot of switch there at your keyboard. One thumb in your mouth, and one up your butt, and you wait for someone to yell "SWITCH!" You deserve every title you brag about.
By the way. Being 2 rungs up on that ladder, just reminds me.
"You are the same idiots on the way up, as you were on the way down."

And you enjoy the climb, either direction.

[OCA]

Master race? Oh, excuse me. So you are a MASTER ASSHOLE. Bet you play a lot of switch there at your keyboard. One thumb in your mouth, and one up your butt, and you wait for someone to yell "SWITCH!" You deserve every title you brag about.
By the way. Being 2 rungs up on that ladder, just reminds me.
"You are the same idiots on the way up, as you were on the way down."

And you enjoy the climb, either direction.

Yep........master race.

[Elessar]

Yep........master race.

And what 'master race' is that??

[aboutime]

And what 'master race' is that??


Elessar. OCA is obviously bragging about being a MASTER-BAITER!

[OCA]

And what 'master race' is that??

Η αρχικη πολιτισμενη κουλτουρα. Σε μαθαμε ολα που βλεπεις μαλακα στο γυρω του κοσμου δηλαδη το κολογαμισι......lol

Everybody wants some inside them, would you like some inside you too?

[OCA]

Anyway Jimnyc and i were talking election and polls before you 2 trolls jacked it, anything to say on topic?

[aboutime]

Anyway Jimnyc and i were talking election and polls before you 2 trolls jacked it, anything to say on topic?


Sure thing OCA, since you brought it up, and haven't denied it. How does it feel to come here and brag about being the MASTER RACE-BAITER?

[OCA]

Sure thing OCA, since you brought it up, and haven't denied it. How does it feel to come here and brag about being the MASTER RACE-BAITER?

Are you 6 or 86?

[Elessar]

Η αρχικη πολιτισμενη κουλτουρα. Σε μαθαμε ολα που βλεπεις μαλακα στο γυρω του κοσμου δηλαδη το κολογαμισι......lol

Everybody wants some inside them, would you like some inside you too?

Explain that, dipshit.

I don't think we need to use a translator here.

[Elessar]

Anyway Jimnyc and i were talking election and polls before you 2 trolls jacked it, anything to say on topic?

Trolls?

When did you crawl out from under your bridge?

Certainly bold to call others trolls when that is largely what you do.

If you don't like open board discussion, take it to private messages Idiot.

[jimnyc]

The lead from the 'most accurate poll' prior to the election has Trump up by 2 points.

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Poll: Donald Trump Leads Hillary Clinton by Two Points, 24 Hours until Election Day

Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by two-points, 43 percent to 41 percent, according to the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.

Investors Business Daily reports this is Trump’s biggest lead in the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received six percent in the poll, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein received two percent.

Trump’s two-point lead comes after FBI Director James Comey announced on Sunday that the FBI did not find any information that would change the decision issued in July, when the FBI announced it would not recommend prosecution against Clinton for her use of a private email server during her time as secretary of state.

The poll surveyed 1,026 likely voters — including 322 Republicans, 319 Democrats and 344 Independents. The results have a 3.1 percent margin of error.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/11/07/poll-donald-trump-leads-hillary-clinton-two-points-24-hours-election-day/

[jimnyc]

And then the bloke who some members here have apparently gotten sexual with:

Nate Silver Projects Trump Will Win Florida


Political statistician Nate Silver officially projected that Republican nominee Donald Trump will win the highly influential swing state of Florida, according to an analysis published Sunday.

Trump has a 52 percent chance of winning Florida, compared to only a 48 percent chance for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the polls-only forecast published on 538. Trump made incredible progress in the state, coming up from a 22 percent chance as of Oct. 15. Clinton has fallen from a 78 percent chance of winning the state since Oct. 15.

Trump has been doing much better in the polls, according to 538’s adjusted poll totals. The last two polls included in the analysis show the two candidates tied in the race, with Trump earning as much as a seven-point lead in a series of polls published last week.

Silver’s adjusted polling average show Trump with 45.7 percent, compared to Clinton’s 45.4 percent. It is still a tight race, but Silver projects voter turnout will make all the difference. The statistician says that among those who vote in the state on Tuesday, 48.1 percent will vote for Trump, and 47.8 percent will choose Clinton.

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/06/nate-silver-projects-trump-will-win-florida/#ixzz4PLY7whXS

[jimnyc]

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: The Most Accurate Presidential Poll In America

With the 2016 election nearly upon us, the political world is once again awash with presidential polls. Many of them show very different things, with some showing Hillary Clinton ahead and others Donald Trump. They can't all be right. How can you tell which polls to trust?

Fortunately, there are data for this. And they clearly show that the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll, over the past three election cycles, has been the most accurate poll out there.

It's no accident. Polling is both a science and an art, and our pollster, Ramsey, N.J.-based TechnoMetrica, excels at both.

The 2012 election is a case in point.

With less than two weeks to go, a number of polls showed a significant lead for Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Gallup, for instance, had Romney up by six points with just a week to go. Meanwhile, other polls showed an "enthusiasm gap", with GOP supporters far more motivated to vote than Democrats.

It looked like it could be a blowout — for the Republicans. But our own 2012 polling showed something different, with incumbent Barack Obama having the edge.

How did we stack up in the end? By our calculations, based on final results of 11 national polls that have been active over the past three presidential elections, IBD/TIPP was among the most accurate polls in 2012. Indeed, polling analyst Nate Silver of the New York Times' blog FiveThirtyEight, who ranked 23 presidential polling organizations in 2012 using a different method than the one we used, described IBD/TIPP as "the most accurate" tracking poll for the year.

Over the long term, our own tally shows that for the 2004, 2008 and 2012 elections IBD/TIPP's average prediction for the final presidential vote margin was the most accurate, with a difference of a mere 0.9% between our predictions and the final outcomes for all three years.

As the chart with this suggests, this was no fluke.

In 2008, we got Obama's final margin of victory exactly right, predicting a 7.2 percentage point victory for President Obama over Sen. John McCain.

http://www.tipponline.com/155-about-tipp/752-ibd-tipp-tracking-poll-the-most-accurate-presidential-poll-in-america

[aboutime]

Are you 6 or 86?


Just to make you feel important here. At least both numbers...6, or 86, are higher than your IQ. Which obviously is a single digit....like that FINGER you keep displaying, making all of us feel comfortable that SINGLE DIGIT is either your age, or IQ.

[OCA]

Explain that, dipshit.

I don't think we need to use a translator here.

Nope, catch up to the rest of the world and learn another language besides ebonics.

[jimnyc]

Looks like this poll was a little better than the "gold standard" of RCP. As well as the LA LA land poll.

Oh, can't wait to hear about those that think Nate Silver and 538 are GOD. How did that work out for you, bully? :lol: Or will we even see you before 2020?