Predicted last 5 elections - Trump has 87% chance of winning

[jimnyc]

Just for interesting discussion. By no means am I tossing out this guy and claiming he is spot on. But is there anything to his history? What about ibd/tipp?

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Professor Who Predicted Last Five Elections Says Trump Has 87% Chance of Winning
Helmut Norpoth still confident despite polls showing Hillary ahead

Political science professor Helmut Norpoth, who has accurately called the results of the last five presidential elections, still asserts that Donald Trump has an 87% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton despite Clinton being ahead in the polls.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSNosmQYPs0

Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted the outcome of the popular vote for every election since 1996, including the 2000 race where Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush took the presidency.

“It usually turns out that the candidate who does better in his party’s primary beats the other guy who does less well,” said Norpoth, adding that Trump’s margin of victory in New Hampshire and South Carolina compared to Clinton (who lost in New Hampshire) was crucial to his model.

The other factor is the “swing of the pendulum,” which makes it far more likely for a change of government if one party has been in power for two terms.

Norpoth said he has gone “all in” on a Donald Trump victory and is sticking with his bet.

“There are also quite a few colleagues of mine who have a prediction that Trump is going to make it,” added the professor.

Rest here - http://www.infowars.com/professor-who-predicted-last-five-elections-says-trump-has-87-chance-of-winning/

[OCA]

Sorry i'll stick to Nate Silver 538.com

Has missed 1......1 state since 2000. Baseball analytics guru. Has HRC 86% 330 electoral votes.

[jimnyc]

Sorry i'll stick to Nate Silver 538.com

Has missed 1......1 state since 2000. Baseball analytics guru. Has HRC 86% 330 electoral votes.

My only issue with Nate is that he outright admits that he is biased in leaning left. Does that matter and affect anything? Probably not. But I don't fully trust folks that admit bias. To me, that's like going to Limbaugh's site for factual information leading towards the election.

[OCA]

My only issue with Nate is that he outright admits that he is biased in leaning left. Does that matter and affect anything? Probably not. But I don't fully trust folks that admit bias. To me, that's like going to Limbaugh's site for factual information leading towards the election.

But his results speak for themselves political leanings not withstanding.

I hate the Pats but got em hoisting #5 this year.

[jimnyc]

But his results speak for themselves political leanings not withstanding.

I hate the Pats but got em hoisting #5 this year.

Yup, I'm not debating his numbers. Just as I'm not debating the numbers of this professor. Nor do I dismiss entirely anyone that has an extensive track record.

[jimnyc]

But his results speak for themselves political leanings not withstanding.

I hate the Pats but got em hoisting #5 this year.

And as of right now I can disagree with you about the stinking Patriots. Hate them fuckers too.

[gabosaurus]

Quite interesting.

http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/helmut_norpoth_donald_trump_victory.html

[DLT]

Just for interesting discussion. By no means am I tossing out this guy and claiming he is spot on. But is there anything to his history? What about ibd/tipp?

-----

Professor Who Predicted Last Five Elections Says Trump Has 87% Chance of Winning
Helmut Norpoth still confident despite polls showing Hillary ahead

Political science professor Helmut Norpoth, who has accurately called the results of the last five presidential elections, still asserts that Donald Trump has an 87% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton despite Clinton being ahead in the polls.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSNosmQYPs0

Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted the outcome of the popular vote for every election since 1996, including the 2000 race where Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush took the presidency.

“It usually turns out that the candidate who does better in his party’s primary beats the other guy who does less well,” said Norpoth, adding that Trump’s margin of victory in New Hampshire and South Carolina compared to Clinton (who lost in New Hampshire) was crucial to his model.

The other factor is the “swing of the pendulum,” which makes it far more likely for a change of government if one party has been in power for two terms.

Norpoth said he has gone “all in” on a Donald Trump victory and is sticking with his bet.

“There are also quite a few colleagues of mine who have a prediction that Trump is going to make it,” added the professor.

Rest here - http://www.infowars.com/professor-who-predicted-last-five-elections-says-trump-has-87-chance-of-winning/

Trump has no electoral path to victory. He didn't have it a month ago and it has only gotten worse after the rats started releasing the dirt on Donny. This guy is not dealing in reality. At best Trump would narrowly lose. At worst, it will be considered a Hillary landslide. I once thought it would be a Hillary squeaker. Now, I'm thinking landslide. The early voter turnout in Dallas has already been "historic". That means more Democrats voting early than ever before. Do the math.

[revelarts]

Just for interesting discussion. By no means am I tossing out this guy and claiming he is spot on. But is there anything to his history? What about ibd/tipp?

-----

Professor Who Predicted Last Five Elections Says Trump Has 87% Chance of Winning
Helmut Norpoth still confident despite polls showing Hillary ahead

Political science professor Helmut Norpoth, who has accurately called the results of the last five presidential elections, still asserts that Donald Trump has an 87% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton despite Clinton being ahead in the polls.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSNosmQYPs0

Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted the outcome of the popular vote for every election since 1996, including the 2000 race where Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush took the presidency.

“It usually turns out that the candidate who does better in his party’s primary beats the other guy who does less well,” said Norpoth, adding that Trump’s margin of victory in New Hampshire and South Carolina compared to Clinton (who lost in New Hampshire) was crucial to his model.

The other factor is the “swing of the pendulum,” which makes it far more likely for a change of government if one party has been in power for two terms.

Norpoth said he has gone “all in” on a Donald Trump victory and is sticking with his bet.

“There are also quite a few colleagues of mine who have a prediction that Trump is going to make it,” added the professor.

Rest here - http://www.infowars.com/professor-who-predicted-last-five-elections-says-trump-has-87-chance-of-winning/

the swing of the pendulum part of this guys prediction is what i think makes his prediction credible.

Obama's been in for 8, and he's got stink to him now. Hillary would be the same flavor stink but worse.
If the rebpulicans had put up nearly anyone but Trump ..or Jeb. I would have called it for the Republicans this round. just based on the pendulum. I think ALL the other candidates could have stomped Hillary. and a Forinno/Carson ticket would have blown Hillary away.

But Trump is such a wildcard I really don't feel comfortable guessing any winner this year.