IBD/TIPP Poll - Trump up +2 nationwide

[jimnyc]

I have to hold onto what little hope I can for now! :laugh2:

This was in fact the most accurate polling station in 2012.

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Trump Up 2 Points Nationwide, While Clinton Campaigns As If The Race Is Already Won — IBD/TIPP Poll

http://i.imgur.com/YyON1sc.jpg

With 16 days to go until November 8, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points — 43% to 41% — in a four-way race, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson saw his support held steady at 7%, while the Green Party's Jill Stein dipped to 3%.

Unrounded, Trump leads 42.6% to 40.8% — a 1.8-point edge — with Johnson at 7.2% and Stein at 3.3%.

Trump also holds a nearly one-point lead in a two-way matchup — 43.2% to 42.3%.

The IBD/TIPP poll results continue to show a much closer race than most other nationwide polls. Only the Rasmussen poll shows Trump ahead in a four-way contest (by two points). The Real Clear Politics average has Clinton up by 5.9 points. And Clinton leads by an average 5.8 points in the latest two-way matchup polls.

The poll results include responses from 783 likely voters, with a weighted partisan breakdown of 282 Democrats, 226 Republicans, and 259 Independents. The results reflect the rolling average of six days' worth of polling, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

Trump does better than Clinton among men (48% to 34%), lower-income voters (48% to 35%), rural voters (60% to 22%), and those who express a religion.

Clinton beats Trump with women (46% to 38%), voters ages 18-44 (41% to 34%), the wealthy (47% to 38%), and investors (48% to 38%).

On the campaign trail, Trump was in Gettysburg, Pa., on Saturday, where he announced his "Contract with the American Voter" — a list of 28 actions he promises to take in his first 100 days as president, including tax cuts, immigration reform, freezing federal hiring, regulatory reforms, bans on lobbying for foreign governments by public officials, and many other proposals Trump has made during his campaign.

Trump said his focus would be to "restore prosperity to our country, secure our communities, and honesty to our government."

Rest here - http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-up-2-points-nationwide-while-clinton-campaigns-as-if-the-race-is-already-won-ibdtipp-poll/

[OCA]

I have to hold onto what little hope I can for now! :laugh2:

This was in fact the most accurate polling station in 2012.

-----

Trump Up 2 Points Nationwide, While Clinton Campaigns As If The Race Is Already Won — IBD/TIPP Poll

http://i.imgur.com/YyON1sc.jpg

With 16 days to go until November 8, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points — 43% to 41% — in a four-way race, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson saw his support held steady at 7%, while the Green Party's Jill Stein dipped to 3%.

Unrounded, Trump leads 42.6% to 40.8% — a 1.8-point edge — with Johnson at 7.2% and Stein at 3.3%.

Trump also holds a nearly one-point lead in a two-way matchup — 43.2% to 42.3%.

The IBD/TIPP poll results continue to show a much closer race than most other nationwide polls. Only the Rasmussen poll shows Trump ahead in a four-way contest (by two points). The Real Clear Politics average has Clinton up by 5.9 points. And Clinton leads by an average 5.8 points in the latest two-way matchup polls.

The poll results include responses from 783 likely voters, with a weighted partisan breakdown of 282 Democrats, 226 Republicans, and 259 Independents. The results reflect the rolling average of six days' worth of polling, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

Trump does better than Clinton among men (48% to 34%), lower-income voters (48% to 35%), rural voters (60% to 22%), and those who express a religion.

Clinton beats Trump with women (46% to 38%), voters ages 18-44 (41% to 34%), the wealthy (47% to 38%), and investors (48% to 38%).

On the campaign trail, Trump was in Gettysburg, Pa., on Saturday, where he announced his "Contract with the American Voter" — a list of 28 actions he promises to take in his first 100 days as president, including tax cuts, immigration reform, freezing federal hiring, regulatory reforms, bans on lobbying for foreign governments by public officials, and many other proposals Trump has made during his campaign.

Trump said his focus would be to "restore prosperity to our country, secure our communities, and honesty to our government."

Rest here - http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-up-2-points-nationwide-while-clinton-campaigns-as-if-the-race-is-already-won-ibdtipp-poll/

Jimmy realclear is the gold standard, even fox uses it. It takes every poll taken across the nation and averages them snd she constantly is up 4-7 pts nationally and leading substantially in 5 out of 7 battleground states. They are unaffiliated either way.

Come on now, we are all gonna be ok.

[Black Diamond]

Jimmy realclear is the gold standard, even fox uses it. It takes every poll taken across the nation and averages them snd she constantly is up 4-7 pts nationally and leading substantially in 5 out of 7 battleground states. They are unaffiliated either way.

Come on now, we are all gonna be ok.

It is going to be amazing when Trump wins.

[OCA]

It is going to be amazing when Trump wins.

I understand, it's hard and will take time to sink in.

[jimnyc]

Jimmy realclear is the gold standard, even fox uses it. It takes every poll taken across the nation and averages them snd she constantly is up 4-7 pts nationally and leading substantially in 5 out of 7 battleground states. They are unaffiliated either way.

Come on now, we are all gonna be ok.

First off, this poll was the most accurate in 2012, that's all I was pointing out.

Realclear is no "gold standard". That's silly talk talk and making it sound as if it's some special place and numbers. All it is, is a place that takes a ton of polls around the nation and gives the average of those polls. Nothing "golden" about it! :laugh2:

[OCA]

First off, this poll was the most accurate in 2012, that's all I was pointing out.

Realclear is no "gold standard". That's silly talk talk and making it sound as if it's some special place and numbers. All it is, is a place that takes a ton of polls around the nation and gives the average of those polls. Nothing "golden" about it! :laugh2:

It's the clearest picture there is.....get it? REAL CLEAR....lol

[jimnyc]

It's the clearest picture there is.....get it? REAL CLEAR....lol

Perhaps it is. It makes sense to me to take as many as humanly possible and average them out. I've posted MANY polls here on the board over the past year - but each time I did, I tried to also add in what the current average was from RCP to make it fair. I have in fact used them as this so called "gold standard". But RCP did exist back in 2012 as well, and this one poll itself was most accurate of all though.

But yeah, hell, even Fox has Hillary with a rather large lead, so who the hell knows. If I'm in Vegas and only have a few bucks left to toss a hail mary, my dough goes on Hillary, even though I'll hate myself for the rest of my life. But even though Fox has Hillary winning, and they are leaning right - LA Times out in la la la la la la land has had Trump in the lead for quite some time now. But they're a bunch of weirdos out there, who knows.

[jimnyc]

Very interesting.

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New Podesta Email Exposes Dem Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples"

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents."

Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is no where near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.

Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small "oversample" of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don't provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to "fact check" the bias...convenient.

https://i.imgur.com/Qpyg3Oh.jpg

Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are rigged, we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in startling detail, exactly how to rig them. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling."

I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:

Research, microtargeting & polling projects
- Over-sample Hispanics
- Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)
- Over-sample the Native American population

For Florida, the report recommends "consistently monitoring" samples to makes sure they're "not too old" and "has enough African American and Hispanic voters." Meanwhile, "independent" voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.

- Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.
- On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.

Meanwhile, it's suggested that national polls over sample "key districts / regions" and "ethnic" groups "as needed."

- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions
- Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed
- Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed

Rest here - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/new-podesta-email-exposes-dem-playbook-rigging-polls-through-oversamples

[OCA]

Perhaps it is. It makes sense to me to take as many as humanly possible and average them out. I've posted MANY polls here on the board over the past year - but each time I did, I tried to also add in what the current average was from RCP to make it fair. I have in fact used them as this so called "gold standard". But RCP did exist back in 2012 as well, and this one poll itself was most accurate of all though.

But yeah, hell, even Fox has Hillary with a rather large lead, so who the hell knows. If I'm in Vegas and only have a few bucks left to toss a hail mary, my dough goes on Hillary, even though I'll hate myself for the rest of my life. But even though Fox has Hillary winning, and they are leaning right - LA Times out in la la la la la la land has had Trump in the lead for quite some time now. But they're a bunch of weirdos out there, who knows.

Nobody knows what the hell the LA Times is about, HRC is up like 20 pts in Cali lol.

There was even an article written by the realclear chief about LA Times and he was basically like wtf?

[Black Diamond]

I understand, it's hard and will take time to sink in.

When he wins, will you still post here?

[OCA]

When he wins, will you still post here?

Why would i waste my time thinking about things outside the realm of possibility?

[gabosaurus]

Trump campaign Going Out of Business sale! :cool:

https://i.imgflip.com/1cw7oh.jpg

[Black Diamond]

Why would i waste my time thinking about things outside the realm of possibility?

So you'll never come back when he wins.

[pete311]

So you'll never come back when he wins.

He's already lost

[Black Diamond]

He's already lost

Election hasn't been held, cupcake.

[pete311]

Election hasn't been held, cupcake.

I'm sorry you can't read the writing on the wall

[jimnyc]

He's already lost

Up against Hillary, and the DOJ & FBI, and the horrid media, and our corrupt congress... we have ALL lost. And you troll in and out every few days, laughing as if it's all fun. I will be very curious down the road to see how the fruity liberals respond to the actions Hillary is guaranteed to make. Some that are way 'out there' will applaud her actions from day one, just as they had no issue and applauded her illegal actions from day one. Others will go eerily silent and disappear, kind of how bullypulpit ignored certain questions, literally for years after Obama got into office.

It's more than just one person losing, it's guaranteed that America will suffer, guaranteed.

[Black Diamond]

I'm sorry you can't read the writing on the wall

I'm sorry you think you can see the future.

[Black Diamond]

Up against Hillary, and the DOJ & FBI, and the horrid media, and our corrupt congress... we have ALL lost. And you troll in and out every few days, laughing as if it's all fun. I will be very curious down the road to see how the fruity liberals respond to the actions Hillary is guaranteed to make. Some that are way 'out there' will applaud her actions from day one, just as they had no issue and applauded her illegal actions from day one. Others will go eerily silent and disappear, kind of how bullypulpit ignored certain questions, literally for years after Obama got into office.

It's more than just one person losing, it's guaranteed that America will suffer, guaranteed.

It's not over.

[pete311]

Up against Hillary, and the DOJ & FBI, and the horrid media, and our corrupt congress... we have ALL lost. And you troll in and out every few days, laughing as if it's all fun. I will be very curious down the road to see how the fruity liberals respond to the actions Hillary is guaranteed to make. Some that are way 'out there' will applaud her actions from day one, just as they had no issue and applauded her illegal actions from day one. Others will go eerily silent and disappear, kind of how bullypulpit ignored certain questions, literally for years after Obama got into office.

It's more than just one person losing, it's guaranteed that America will suffer, guaranteed.

No matter what you say I don't support Hillary. I'll vote for her, but I don't endorse her. Anyone other than Trump had a real chance. You'll go down in history with supporting one of the worst candidates of all time. It will be a laughing stock for a generation.

[pete311]

I'm sorry you think you can see the future.

You're just not good at math. He can't get the electoral votes.

[jimnyc]

No matter what you say I don't support Hilary. I'll vote for her, but I don't endorse her. Anyone other than Trump had a real chance. You'll go down in history with supporting one of the worst candidates of all time. It will be a laughing stock for a generation.

And yet there were 16 other candidates that ran campaigns that were simply unable to beat this laughing stock.

And you keep saying over and over that you don't support Hillary, but I'm still convinced that on election day you will voting for her.

[pete311]

And yet there were 16 other candidates that ran campaigns that were simply unable to beat this laughing stock.

And you keep saying over and over that you don't support Hillary, but I'm still convinced that on election day you will voting for her.

Says more about voters than the candidates. I said I was voting for her. No contest.

[Black Diamond]

You're just not good at math. He can't get the electoral votes.

I made it through calculus 2. You?

[gabosaurus]

And yet there were 16 other candidates that ran campaigns that were simply unable to beat this laughing stock.



This should correctly read "And yet there were 16 other REPUBLICAN candidates that ran campaigns that were simply unable to beat this laughing stock.
Plus you neglected to mention that the other GOP candidates also became laughing stocks.

[jimnyc]

No matter what you say I don't support Hillary.


I'll vote for her, but I don't endorse her.

Look, you don't need to give her a glowing endorsement. But how silly, if you give her your vote, then you ARE directly supporting her.

[gabosaurus]

Look, you don't need to give her a glowing endorsement. But how silly, if you give her your vote, then you ARE directly supporting her.

I am not voting for Hillary. I am voting for a liberal Supreme Court. Yes, you get Hillary with that deal. But she is the least important part of the deal.

[jimnyc]

I am not voting for Hillary. I am voting for a liberal Supreme Court. Yes, you get Hillary with that deal. But she is the least important part of the deal.

I get your reasoning, but voting for Hillary in order to get that SC - is still indirectly supporting Hillary and placing a +1 in her column however you slice it and explain it.

[Kathianne]

Look, you don't need to give her a glowing endorsement. But how silly, if you give her your vote, then you ARE directly supporting her.

Thanks for that!

[gabosaurus]

I get your reasoning, but voting for Hillary in order to get that SC - is still indirectly supporting Hillary and placing a +1 in her column however you slice it and explain it.

Brass tacks -- A vote for Hillary is a vote against Trump. You come out of the voting booth stinking either way.
I'm not going to ostracize anyone who votes for Trump. That is their choice. I am pretty sure my husband's parents will vote Republican. They always have. They are wonderful people despite that fallacy. :cool:

[jimnyc]

Brass tacks -- A vote for Hillary is a vote against Trump. You come out of the voting booth stinking either way.
I'm not going to ostracize anyone who votes for Trump. That is their choice. I am pretty sure my husband's parents will vote Republican. They always have. They are wonderful people despite that fallacy. :cool:

Like I said, no matter how you slice it and dice it, that's supporting Hillary directly.

[OCA]

This same poll today Oct.25 has HRC up +1.

[pete311]

Look, you don't need to give her a glowing endorsement. But how silly, if you give her your vote, then you ARE directly supporting her.

Let's make it a clear definition. I am supporting her over Trump, yes. That condition changes depending on her opponent. I don't support Hillary unequivocally.

[OCA]

Let's make it a clear definition. I am supporting her over Trump, yes. That condition changes depending on her opponent. I don't support Hillary unequivocally.

Given the 2 viable candidates what choice do we have? Anybody who votes for Drumpf i automatically have to quedtion their intelligence and.........integrity.

[Black Diamond]

Let's make it a clear definition. I am supporting her over Trump, yes. That condition changes depending on her opponent. I don't support Hillary unequivocally.

Hillary appreciates your support. And so do the abortion doctors.

[Black Diamond]

Given the 2 viable candidates what choice do we have? Anybody who votes for Drumpf i automatically have to quedtion their intelligence and.........integrity.

:laugh:

[pete311]

Hillary appreciates your support. And so do the abortion doctors.

I support conditional abortion

[OCA]

I support conditional abortion

I support the government staying the fuck out of a woman's personal decision.

Another hypocritical instance where supposed small gov neocons want big gov to step in.

[fj1200]

I support the government staying the fuck out of a woman's personal decision.

Another hypocritical instance where supposed small gov neocons want big gov to step in.

the State has a duty to protect citizens.

[OCA]

the State has a duty to protect citizens.

Define citizen.

[fj1200]

Define citizen.

Therein lies the rub. Nevertheless it is not "hypocritical" to seek to expand the definition of citizen by changing the timing of when one becomes a citizen.

[OCA]

Therein lies the rub. Nevertheless it is not "hypocritical" to seek to expand the definition of citizen by changing the timing of when one becomes a citizen.

Kind of like i think it's not hypocritical to redefine and expand or condense the 2nd amendment. We do agree!

[fj1200]

Kind of like i think it's not hypocritical to redefine and expand or condense the 2nd amendment. We do agree!

As long as we're all subject to the same laws and Constitutional interpretation.

[jimnyc]

While I'm posting this to be fair, as it was extremely extremely accurate in the past... at the same time, maybe it's not to be paid any attention.... :lol:

Yes, this is a 5 point swing in Hillary's favor. That sucks. At the same time, nationwide with all 4 in the race her lead is now down to 4.4. Does any of this mean jack shit, other than giving us stuff to talk about? Who the hell knows.

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IBD/TIPP Poll: Clinton Takes 3-Point Lead Over Trump

Hillary Clinton has taken a 3-point lead over Donald Trump, according to the latest IBD/TIPP poll released Friday.

The results:

Clinton: 43.8 percent;
Trump: 40.8 percent;
Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson: 7.3 percent;
Green Party nominee Jill Stein: 1.8 percent;
Other: 2.2 percent;
Not sure: 4.1 percent.


Clinton is also ahead in a two-way matchup:

Clinton: 45.2 percent;
Trump: 41.8 percent.

The IBD/TIPP tracking poll of 973 likely voters is based on a weighted sample of 351 Democrats, 287 Republicans, and 308 who identify themselves as "independents" or "other."

Breaking down the poll results by region, Clinton appears to have the widest success in the western states:

Clinton: 46 percent;
Trump: 35 percent.

Results in the other regions are closer. Clinton leads by 2 points in the Midwest, 3 points in the Northeast, and Trump is ahead by 1 point in the South.

By age, Trump is ahead among voters ages 45 to 64.

Clinton: 41 percent;
Trump: 47 percent.

Younger voters, ages 18 to 44, favor Clinton:

Clinton: 46 percent;
Trump: 31 percent.

According to the RealClearPolitics average of 12 recent polls, Clinton is ahead by 5.4 points. However, in Missouri Trump is ahead by 7.2 points.

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Clinton-Leads-Trump/2016/10/28/id/755766/

[red states rule]

http://media.townhall.com/Townhall/Car/b/sk102816dAPC20161028064509.jpg

[OCA]

Today this poll has HRC UP 4

#madampresident

[red states rule]

So much for the blowout the left and liberal media will telling us was going tom happen




Clinton and Trump Even in Latest Poll; Turnout CriticalA slim point separates Hillary Clinton (http://abcnews.go.com/topics/news/whitehouse/hillary-clinton.htm) and Donald Trump (http://abcnews.go.com/topics/news/donald-trump.htm) in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll results, cementing Trump's resurgence in the past week and marking the potentially critical role of turnout in the election’s outcome.
The race stands at 46-45 percent, Clinton-Trump, in the latest results, so tight that the draw by third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein (http://abcnews.go.com/topics/news/us/jill-stein.htm) could matter. Clinton, +1 vs. Trump in a four-way trial heat, is +3 head-to-head –- not a significant difference, but suggestive.
See PDF with full results, charts and tables here. (http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a82016ElectionTrackingNo8.pdf)
About a third of likely voters say they’re less likely to support Clinton given FBI (http://abcnews.go.com/topics/news/us/federal-bureau-of-investigation.htm) Director James Comey (http://abcnews.go.com/topics/news/whitehouse/james-b.-comey.htm)’s disclosure Friday that the bureau is investigating more emails related to its probe of Clinton’s use of a private email server while secretary of state. Given other considerations, 63 percent say it makes no difference.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-trump-turnout-critical-poll/story?id=43159639