Kathianne
08-12-2016, 10:40 AM
Typical Cold War behavior, which it appears we are moving towards. Question will be, will either/both sides allow it to remain 'cold?' There's not a strong sphere of influence on US side any longer, especially with attacks on NATO and trade that have been going on during the election process:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/12/world/europe/vladimir-putin-crimea-russia.html
Signs of Trouble in Ukraine Prompt Question: What’s Vladimir Putin Up To? The Interpreter (http://www.nytimes.com/column/the-interpreter)
By MAX FISHER <time class="dateline" datetime="2016-08-12T08:52:03-04:00" itemprop="dateModified" content="2016-08-12T08:52:03-04:00" style="white-space: nowrap; font-size: 0.6875rem; line-height: 0.6875rem; font-weight: 500; font-family: franklin-normal-500, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; margin-left: 0px;">AUG. 11, 2016</time>
WASHINGTON — Russia (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/russiaandtheformersovietunion/index.html?inline=nyt-geo) is conducting a series of military and rhetorical escalations toward Ukraine (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/ukraine/index.html?inline=nyt-geo) that have anxious Western analysts once again looking for clues as to President Vladimir V. Putin (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/p/vladimir_v_putin/index.html?inline=nyt-per)’s next move.
On Wednesday, Russia’s state security agency, the F.S.B., claimed (http://www.fsb.ru/fsb/press/message/single.htm!id%3D10437869%40fsbMessage.html) that it had blocked an attack on Crimea by “sabotage-terrorist groups” sponsored by the Ukrainian government, though two Russian soldiers were killed.
Mr. Putin accused the Ukrainian government of using terrorism to incite conflict over Crimea, which has been heavily militarized since Russia annexed it from Ukraine in 2014. He warned (http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-ukraine-crimea-tighter-security/27914563.html) ominously, “We obviously will not let such things slide by.”
Russia has increased its military presence in and around Crimea, adding to fears that Moscow might be planning another military intervention in Ukraine. But while Mr. Putin is nothing if not unpredictable, analysts say this may be about Russia seeking diplomatic leverage rather than prepping for war.
What is actually happening in Crimea?
There are two sets of overlapping events, both shrouded in mystery: the supposed recent attack on Crimea and Russia’s buildup there.
The official Russian account lays out the first as follows: It began late on Saturday, when F.S.B. officers discovered a group of saboteurs just on the Crimean side of the land border with Ukraine. A firefight ended with one F.S.B. officer killed and several of the saboteurs captured. Then on Monday, Ukrainian special forces attempted to cross into Crimea, killing one Russian soldier in what the agency called “massive firing” over the border.
The Russian media later cited (http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-ukraine-crimea-tighter-security/27914563.html) government sources as saying the captured saboteurs were Crimean residents who had confessed to planning attacks on local tourist facilities. Moscow insists that Ukraine sponsored the plot.
It’s difficult to judge the truth of these claims. Ukraine denies them, and both the United States and the European Union say Russia has provided no evidence. An open-source analysis group, the Digital Forensic Research Lab, found some indications (https://medium.com/dfrlab/https-medium-com-dfrlab-competing-narratives-6ff353366f70#.mj34gb87n) of a firefight on Saturday, but little to back up Moscow’s grander claims. Russia has been known to distort (http://shorensteincenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/d88-dougherty.pdf) or misstate events to serve political ends, particularly within the fog of Ukraine’s still-ongoing conflict
That doesn’t mean that Russia’s claims are all false. Ukrainian militias last year sabotaged (https://news.vice.com/article/anti-russian-saboteurs-plunge-crimea-into-darkness-by-blowing-up-electrical-towers) electricity pylons that power Crimea, and some of them are involved in criminal activity and human rights violations. An attempted attack in Crimea is not out of the question, though there is little reason to suspect the Ukrainian government would sponsor such a plot.
Whatever happened, images found by open-source analysts suggest that Russia has been escalating its military presence in Crimea since at least Saturday — before the supposed attack occurred. These show convoys of heavy weapons moving on the peninsula, including missile systems intended for coastal defense.
...
Positioning for a bargain with the West
Mr. Putin also said this week that it made little sense to continue negotiations amid the Crimea tensions, forcing the other parties to persuade him to come back to the table — and putting himself at the center of the process.
What does this actually get him? For one, it allows Russia to continue asserting itself as a global power, even though its economy is smaller than Australia’s (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=51&pr.y=10&sy=2015&ey=2016&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=512%2C672%2C914%2C946%2C612%2C137%2C614%2C546%2C 311%2C962%2C213%2C674%2C911%2C676%2C193%2C548%2C12 2%2C556%2C912%2C678%2C313%2C181%2C419%2C867%2C513% 2C682%2C316%2C684%2C913%2C273%2C124%2C868%2C339%2C 921%2C638%2C948%2C514%2C943%2C218%2C686%2C963%2C68 8%2C616%2C518%2C223%2C728%2C516%2C558%2C918%2C138% 2C748%2C196%2C618%2C278%2C624%2C692%2C522%2C694%2C 622%2C142%2C156%2C449%2C626%2C564%2C628%2C565%2C22 8%2C283%2C924%2C853%2C233%2C288%2C632%2C293%2C636% 2C566%2C634%2C964%2C238%2C182%2C662%2C359%2C960%2C 453%2C423%2C968%2C935%2C922%2C128%2C714%2C611%2C86 2%2C321%2C135%2C243%2C716%2C248%2C456%2C469%2C722% 2C253%2C942%2C642%2C718%2C643%2C724%2C939%2C576%2C 644%2C936%2C819%2C961%2C172%2C813%2C132%2C199%2C64 6%2C733%2C648%2C184%2C915%2C524%2C134%2C361%2C652% 2C362%2C174%2C364%2C328%2C732%2C258%2C366%2C656%2C 734%2C654%2C144%2C336%2C146%2C263%2C463%2C268%2C52 8%2C532%2C923%2C944%2C738%2C176%2C578%2C534%2C537% 2C536%2C742%2C429%2C866%2C433%2C369%2C178%2C744%2C 436%2C186%2C136%2C925%2C343%2C869%2C158%2C746%2C43 9%2C926%2C916%2C466%2C664%2C112%2C826%2C111%2C542% 2C298%2C967%2C927%2C443%2C846%2C917%2C299%2C544%2C 582%2C941%2C474%2C446%2C754%2C666%2C698%2C668&s=NGDPD&grp=0&a=). For another, it positions Moscow as having a veto over Ukraine’s sovereignty, keeping the country within some degree of Russian control.
It may also serve Mr. Putin’s long-held hopes of a grand bargain with the United States that would settle their disputes over Ukraine and Syria — on terms favorable to Moscow, naturally — as well as ending Western sanctions against Russia.
Mr. Putin has repeatedly hinted at this goal since his nation’s economy began collapsing in late 2014, due mostly to the declining value of its oil and gas exports. Since intervening in Syria last fall, he has repeatedly invited Western powers to join him in a grand coalition to fight extremists.
But Russian leaders may believe that they would need to secure such a deal before January, when President Obama will leave office. Russian officials tend to view Hillary Clinton as the likely successor and as more hostile to Moscow. Donald J. Trump, while conspicuously friendly toward Russia, is still seen as unpredictable.
But Mr. Obama is seen as “looking for resolutions, not conflicts,” Mr. Galeotti said. “So there is a sense that there’s a closing window of opportunity to get something done quickly.”
In the meantime, should no grand bargain come, Mr. Putin appears happy to keep Russia’s weaker neighbor guessing about what’s coming next.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/12/world/europe/vladimir-putin-crimea-russia.html
Signs of Trouble in Ukraine Prompt Question: What’s Vladimir Putin Up To? The Interpreter (http://www.nytimes.com/column/the-interpreter)
By MAX FISHER <time class="dateline" datetime="2016-08-12T08:52:03-04:00" itemprop="dateModified" content="2016-08-12T08:52:03-04:00" style="white-space: nowrap; font-size: 0.6875rem; line-height: 0.6875rem; font-weight: 500; font-family: franklin-normal-500, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; margin-left: 0px;">AUG. 11, 2016</time>
WASHINGTON — Russia (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/russiaandtheformersovietunion/index.html?inline=nyt-geo) is conducting a series of military and rhetorical escalations toward Ukraine (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/ukraine/index.html?inline=nyt-geo) that have anxious Western analysts once again looking for clues as to President Vladimir V. Putin (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/p/vladimir_v_putin/index.html?inline=nyt-per)’s next move.
On Wednesday, Russia’s state security agency, the F.S.B., claimed (http://www.fsb.ru/fsb/press/message/single.htm!id%3D10437869%40fsbMessage.html) that it had blocked an attack on Crimea by “sabotage-terrorist groups” sponsored by the Ukrainian government, though two Russian soldiers were killed.
Mr. Putin accused the Ukrainian government of using terrorism to incite conflict over Crimea, which has been heavily militarized since Russia annexed it from Ukraine in 2014. He warned (http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-ukraine-crimea-tighter-security/27914563.html) ominously, “We obviously will not let such things slide by.”
Russia has increased its military presence in and around Crimea, adding to fears that Moscow might be planning another military intervention in Ukraine. But while Mr. Putin is nothing if not unpredictable, analysts say this may be about Russia seeking diplomatic leverage rather than prepping for war.
What is actually happening in Crimea?
There are two sets of overlapping events, both shrouded in mystery: the supposed recent attack on Crimea and Russia’s buildup there.
The official Russian account lays out the first as follows: It began late on Saturday, when F.S.B. officers discovered a group of saboteurs just on the Crimean side of the land border with Ukraine. A firefight ended with one F.S.B. officer killed and several of the saboteurs captured. Then on Monday, Ukrainian special forces attempted to cross into Crimea, killing one Russian soldier in what the agency called “massive firing” over the border.
The Russian media later cited (http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-ukraine-crimea-tighter-security/27914563.html) government sources as saying the captured saboteurs were Crimean residents who had confessed to planning attacks on local tourist facilities. Moscow insists that Ukraine sponsored the plot.
It’s difficult to judge the truth of these claims. Ukraine denies them, and both the United States and the European Union say Russia has provided no evidence. An open-source analysis group, the Digital Forensic Research Lab, found some indications (https://medium.com/dfrlab/https-medium-com-dfrlab-competing-narratives-6ff353366f70#.mj34gb87n) of a firefight on Saturday, but little to back up Moscow’s grander claims. Russia has been known to distort (http://shorensteincenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/d88-dougherty.pdf) or misstate events to serve political ends, particularly within the fog of Ukraine’s still-ongoing conflict
That doesn’t mean that Russia’s claims are all false. Ukrainian militias last year sabotaged (https://news.vice.com/article/anti-russian-saboteurs-plunge-crimea-into-darkness-by-blowing-up-electrical-towers) electricity pylons that power Crimea, and some of them are involved in criminal activity and human rights violations. An attempted attack in Crimea is not out of the question, though there is little reason to suspect the Ukrainian government would sponsor such a plot.
Whatever happened, images found by open-source analysts suggest that Russia has been escalating its military presence in Crimea since at least Saturday — before the supposed attack occurred. These show convoys of heavy weapons moving on the peninsula, including missile systems intended for coastal defense.
...
Positioning for a bargain with the West
Mr. Putin also said this week that it made little sense to continue negotiations amid the Crimea tensions, forcing the other parties to persuade him to come back to the table — and putting himself at the center of the process.
What does this actually get him? For one, it allows Russia to continue asserting itself as a global power, even though its economy is smaller than Australia’s (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=51&pr.y=10&sy=2015&ey=2016&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=512%2C672%2C914%2C946%2C612%2C137%2C614%2C546%2C 311%2C962%2C213%2C674%2C911%2C676%2C193%2C548%2C12 2%2C556%2C912%2C678%2C313%2C181%2C419%2C867%2C513% 2C682%2C316%2C684%2C913%2C273%2C124%2C868%2C339%2C 921%2C638%2C948%2C514%2C943%2C218%2C686%2C963%2C68 8%2C616%2C518%2C223%2C728%2C516%2C558%2C918%2C138% 2C748%2C196%2C618%2C278%2C624%2C692%2C522%2C694%2C 622%2C142%2C156%2C449%2C626%2C564%2C628%2C565%2C22 8%2C283%2C924%2C853%2C233%2C288%2C632%2C293%2C636% 2C566%2C634%2C964%2C238%2C182%2C662%2C359%2C960%2C 453%2C423%2C968%2C935%2C922%2C128%2C714%2C611%2C86 2%2C321%2C135%2C243%2C716%2C248%2C456%2C469%2C722% 2C253%2C942%2C642%2C718%2C643%2C724%2C939%2C576%2C 644%2C936%2C819%2C961%2C172%2C813%2C132%2C199%2C64 6%2C733%2C648%2C184%2C915%2C524%2C134%2C361%2C652% 2C362%2C174%2C364%2C328%2C732%2C258%2C366%2C656%2C 734%2C654%2C144%2C336%2C146%2C263%2C463%2C268%2C52 8%2C532%2C923%2C944%2C738%2C176%2C578%2C534%2C537% 2C536%2C742%2C429%2C866%2C433%2C369%2C178%2C744%2C 436%2C186%2C136%2C925%2C343%2C869%2C158%2C746%2C43 9%2C926%2C916%2C466%2C664%2C112%2C826%2C111%2C542% 2C298%2C967%2C927%2C443%2C846%2C917%2C299%2C544%2C 582%2C941%2C474%2C446%2C754%2C666%2C698%2C668&s=NGDPD&grp=0&a=). For another, it positions Moscow as having a veto over Ukraine’s sovereignty, keeping the country within some degree of Russian control.
It may also serve Mr. Putin’s long-held hopes of a grand bargain with the United States that would settle their disputes over Ukraine and Syria — on terms favorable to Moscow, naturally — as well as ending Western sanctions against Russia.
Mr. Putin has repeatedly hinted at this goal since his nation’s economy began collapsing in late 2014, due mostly to the declining value of its oil and gas exports. Since intervening in Syria last fall, he has repeatedly invited Western powers to join him in a grand coalition to fight extremists.
But Russian leaders may believe that they would need to secure such a deal before January, when President Obama will leave office. Russian officials tend to view Hillary Clinton as the likely successor and as more hostile to Moscow. Donald J. Trump, while conspicuously friendly toward Russia, is still seen as unpredictable.
But Mr. Obama is seen as “looking for resolutions, not conflicts,” Mr. Galeotti said. “So there is a sense that there’s a closing window of opportunity to get something done quickly.”
In the meantime, should no grand bargain come, Mr. Putin appears happy to keep Russia’s weaker neighbor guessing about what’s coming next.