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Kathianne
05-06-2016, 02:00 PM
Well heck of a way to start out. Better headline: "Invest In America At Own Risk." Hell with being stable.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/07/us/politics/donald-trumps-idea-to-cut-national-debt-get-creditors-to-accept-less.html?_r=0

[QUOTE]Donald Trump’s Idea to Cut National Debt: Get Creditors to Accept Less

By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/a/binyamin_appelbaum/index.html)<time class="dateline" datetime="2016-05-06" itemprop="datePublished" content="2016-05-06" style="font-size: 0.6875rem; line-height: 0.75rem; font-family: nyt-cheltenham-sh, georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); margin-left: 12px;">MAY 6, 2016</time>






One day after assuring Americans he is not running for president “to make things unstable for the country (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/05/us/politics/donald-trump-president.html),” the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/donald-trump-on-the-issues.html?inline=nyt-per), said in a television interview Thursday that he might seek to reduce the national debt by persuading creditors to accept something less than full payment.


Asked whether the United States needed to pay its debts in full, or whether he could negotiate a partial repayment, Mr. Trump told the cable network CNBC, “I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal.”


He added, “And if the economy was good, it was good. So, therefore, you can’t lose.”


Such remarks by a major presidential candidate have no modern precedent. The United States government is able to borrow money at very low interest rates because Treasury securities (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/t/treasury_department/treasury_securities/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier) are regarded as a safe investment, and any cracks in investor confidence have a long history of costing American taxpayers a lot of money.


Experts also described Mr. Trump’s vaguely sketched proposal as fanciful, saying there was no reason to think America’s creditors would accept anything less than 100 cents on the dollar, regardless of Mr. Trump’s deal-making prowess.


“No one on the other side would pick up the phone if the secretary of the U.S. Treasury tried to make that call,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP. “Why should they? They have a contract” requiring payment in full.


Mr. Trump told CNBC that he was concerned about the impact of higher interest rates on the cost of servicing the federal debt. “We’re paying a very low interest rate,” he said. “What happens if that interest rate goes two, three, four points up? We don’t have a country. I mean, if you look at the numbers, they’re staggering.”


Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office projects (https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/51129-2016_Outlook_Summary.pdf) that interest payments on the federal debt will climb to $500 billion in 2020 from roughly $250 billion this year. That is based on a projection that rates on the benchmark 10-year Treasury will reach 4.1 percent in late 2019, still a low level by historical standards. If rates were to climb more quickly, or reach higher levels, debt payments would be higher.


<figure id="electoral-map-trump-clinton" class="interactive promo layout-small" style="margin: 7px 30px 15px 0px; position: relative; border-top-width: 1px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(226, 226, 226); padding-top: 15px; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(226, 226, 226); padding-bottom: 15px; width: 180px; overflow: hidden; max-width: 300px; cursor: pointer; float: left; clear: left; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;">https://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/05/04/upshot/electoral-map-trump-clinton-1462320994125/electoral-map-trump-clinton-1462320994125-master180-v2.png


The Electoral Map Looks Challenging for Trump (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/04/upshot/electoral-map-trump-clinton.html)</figure>Pressed to elaborate on his remarks, Mr. Trump did appear to step back. He said that he was not suggesting a default, but instead that the government could seek to repurchase debt for less than the face value of the securities. The government, in other words, would seek to repay less money than it borrowed.


Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said that she shared Mr. Trump’s concern about the size of the federal debt, but that the issue needed to be addressed through changes in fiscal policy — some combination of less spending and more revenue.


“It’s a policy problem, not a debt-management problem,” she said. “When it comes to fiscal responsibility, people are always looking for the easiest of answers. If there were low-hanging fruit here, the Treasury Department would already be on it.”

fj1200
05-09-2016, 09:35 AM
Pressed to elaborate on his remarks, Mr. Trump did appear to step back. He said that he was not suggesting a default, but instead that the government could seek to repurchase debt for less than the face value of the securities. The government, in other words, would seek to repay less money than it borrowed.

Umm. Where do we get this money to "repurchase"? :confused:

/rhetorical question

jimnyc
05-09-2016, 09:40 AM
Just read this too, same topic? Just posting, I am NOT a finance person, just a reader. :) I miss MtnBiker when it came to the economy!

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Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump just revealed an inconvenient truth about U.S. debt, the outspoken and often controversial Peter Schiff told CNBC in a recent interview.

Last week, Trump joined CNBC's " Squawk Box " to discuss a wide range of topics including U.S. debt , interest rates and replacing Fed Chair Janet Yellen . It was Trump's comments about potentially renegotiating the more than $19 trillion in U.S. debt and the sensitivity surrounding higher interest rates that raised eyebrows.

While some observers argued that Trump's approach could be tantamount to a debt default , Schiff told CNBC the GOP nominee was fundamentally correct in his observation.

"Trump just admitted on CNBC that America has too much debt to afford a rate hike, and that he wants our creditors to accept less than 100 cents on their Treasuries," the Euro Pacific Capital CEO explained on CNBC's " Futures Now " last week. "In other words, Trump knows a U.S. government default is inevitable."

Last year, the widespread belief that the Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy unsettled markets. Recently, soft economic data and turmoil around the globe have softened expectations of a rate hike. Still, Schiff said an eventual rate hike could leave the world's largest economy exposed to a growing risk.

"If rates go up, refinancing [debt] doesn't help. The only thing that helps is restructuring," said Schiff, who compared the situation to the crisis in Puerto Rico.

The commonwealth "can't pay because they are broke, well math applies on the main land just like it applies in Puerto Rico, we can't pay either," he said. "And if interest rates go up Donald Trump is right, we have no choice than to tell our creditors they are taking a big haircut," he added.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-just-exposed-americas-210000595.html

fj1200
05-09-2016, 09:47 AM
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"If rates go up, refinancing [debt] doesn't help. The only thing that helps is restructuring," said Schiff, who compared the situation to the crisis in Puerto Rico.

The commonwealth "can't pay because they are broke, well math applies on the main land just like it applies in Puerto Rico, we can't pay either," he said. "And if interest rates go up Donald Trump is right, we have no choice than to tell our creditors they are taking a big haircut," he added.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-just-exposed-americas-210000595.html

The latter means that rates will go up.

fj1200
05-09-2016, 09:56 AM
A little Wilson, a little Hoover, and now a bit of Weimar.

Donald Trump just made a new mess while walking back his controversial plan for US debt (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-just-made-mess-144326752.html?hl=1&noRedirect=1)
In a Monday interview on CNN's "New Day," (http://www.snappytv.com/tc/1887686) as Trump attempted to clarify his plans for the national debt, he said the US would never default on its obligations because it prints money (emphasis added):If interest rates go up, and we can buy bonds back at a discount, if we are liquid enough as a country, we should do that. In other words, we can buy back debt at a discount. People said I wanted to go and buy debt and default on debt, these people are crazy. This is the United States government. First of all, you never have to default because you print the money, I hate to tell you.
Trump started out his answer by claiming that he never intended to offer creditors an actual haircut, but instead have the government purchase a large amount of debt in the event of a crash in US debt prices. But whether or not that would work is questionable, as the government would need to somehow finance that debt purchase with other debt, as noted by The New York Times' Binyamin Appelbaum (https://twitter.com/BCAppelbaum/status/729645612384309249).