Does Trump really have a chance?

[gabosaurus]

You bet your life he does. Unless Trump really unhinges the GOP base in historically strong states, the battleground states will decide the outcome.
(Lengthy and involved article, but an excellent analysis)

http://www.theguardian.com/news/reality-check/2016/may/06/donald-trump-odds-winning-us-election-reality-check

[Black Diamond]

Yes

[Gunny]

Yes

I say he'll be as likely to win as McCain. Conservatives don't support him. Neither does the GOP. Nor, women, blacks and Hispanics. You don't win by making enemies of everyone.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

I say he'll be as likely to win as McCain. Conservatives don't support him. Neither does the GOP. Nor, women, blacks and Hispanics. You don't win by making enemies of everyone.

He is not the last man standing by way of making enemies of everyone my friend.
That majority that has put him there would be more like the everyone of which you now speak.
And that majority will speak loudly this election, as will those on the dem-side that hate hillary..

Media magnifies and plays up the TRUMP HATE WHILE HEY DOWN PLAY THE HILLARY HATE..

THINK ABOUT IT--WHICH DO YOU DESPISE THE MOST.
I REST MY CASE...-TYR

[Kathianne]

I think he may win, it's his to lose.

[Gunny]

He is not the last man standing by way of making enemies of everyone my friend.
That majority that has put him there would be more like the everyone of which you now speak.
And that majority will speak loudly this election, as will those on the dem-side that hate hillary..

Media magnifies and plays up the TRUMP HATE WHILE HEY DOWN PLAY THE HILLARY HATE..

THINK ABOUT IT--WHICH DO YOU DESPISE THE MOST.
I REST MY CASE...-TYR

I'm not looking at this from a personal POV. I'm looking at it strategically. The majority as you call it is the majority of Republicans. Add the conservatives that aren't going to vote and/or vote 3rd party and we lose again. The left will march in lockstep to vote "D". They win.

[Kathianne]

I'm not looking at this from a personal POV. I'm looking at it strategically. The majority as you call it is the majority of Republicans. Add the conservatives that aren't going to vote and/or vote 3rd party and we lose again. The left will march in lockstep to vote "D". They win.

Not definite for this one cycle, but the repercussions of this election will be long-lasting. People that seriously believed that the GOP had principles that mattered, that worked for far less than the private sector, will leave. Those that stood through the dark days when it looked like the liberals would control all, to find they could win and make the changes that were possible are unlikely to stay in those positions.

To all that think that the control of the House and Senate didn't help keep Obama under control, well they either haven't paid attention or aren't informed of how the system works.

If they think that losing Congress, which is more likely by the day, but having Trump as president is going to be a winning proposition, good luck with that. Even if they keep the House, how many are going to the wall on his issues?

[Kathianne]

Seems that as of now, even if Trump pulls off a win, things are not looking good in gubernatorial or Congressional races for the new GOP:

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/05/06/11-states-flip-toward-democrats-in-latest-cook-political-report-analysis/


11 states flip toward Democrats in latest Cook Political Report analysisPOSTED AT 3:21 PM ON MAY 6, 2016 BY JOHN SEXTON
The Cook Political Report maintains an estimate of where the 2016 election is headed based on current polling and analysis. Yesterday, Cook updated its analysis of the race in 13 states, with 11 of those states moving toward the Democrats. The Hill reports (http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/278997-election-analyst-shifts-11-states-and-congressional):



Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin were all shifted from toss-up states to leaning Democratic. The “solid Republican” states Missouri and Indiana were downgraded to “likely Republican.” New Mexico is now solidly Democratic, and North Carolina is a toss-up after leaning Republican.

In addition, Georgia and Arizona moved from the “Likely R” column to the “Lean R” column. The only move (of the 13) that favored the GOP was a change in Cook’s rating of a Maine House race which went from “Solid D” to “Likely D.”


All of this adds up to a loss in November if the states in the leaners column for each party wind up where expected. Of course maps change over time so all of this could look much different by November, but Cook Report suggests, at least at this moment, it is in danger of looking even worse for the GOP. In this current report, the group held off on moving four more states, including Ohio, into the Democrats column (http://cookpolitical.com/story/9583):



With these changes, 190 Electoral Votes are in the Solid Democratic column, 27 are in Likely Democratic and another 87 are in Lean Democratic – enough for a majority. Yet another 44 Electoral Votes are in Toss Up. Although Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio could shift to Lean Democratic and Nevada could shift to Likely Democratic, we are holding off on changes in these states until we see more evidence.

Bottom line: Hillary is a weak candidate but Trump is the underdog in this race because of his low favorability with important segments of the electorate:



This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year. Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate – women, millennials, independents and Latinos – make him the initial November underdog.

The Cook Report’s full breakdown (http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard) of the current state of the race is here.

[NightTrain]

The General Election hasn't even started yet.

Let's keep in mind that Trump systematically knocked out 15 other contenders, some extremely strong ones - and he did it without the support of his own party. Indeed, he did all that despite his party's efforts to undermine him.

Then lets look at the record breaking turnout on the GOP side of things, gaining millions of defectors from the Dems - all the while the Dem turnout was down millions of voters.

Independents flocked to him, hispanics did as well, despite the claims by all the 'experts' that he was DOA prior to the first debate.

The 'experts' and pundits have declared his candidacy about to die a swift death roughly 64,459,202 times now by my calculations, and they were wrong every time. It was wishful thinking on their part.

Remember Erick Erickson over at Red State in the very beginning? Yeah, he excluded Trump from that event and everyone declared it a killing blow. Erickson was just one of many to try to kill the campaign; now he's relegated to being a bitter, irrelevant little man.

Once Trump focuses on his opponent, he wins. And right now his main turrets are swinging to the left to open fire on the SS Moonbat, the captain of which has one cankle in the stockade at this very moment.

Prep for initial salvo in 3...2...

[revelarts]

I suspect that Trump has a good chance based on many people NOT voting out of disgust for both.
Also Some on the left not liking Hillary and wanting a non status quo guy so they're voting for Trump.
Plus Long time non voters disgusted with it all and seeing Trump as different for various reasons.

But here's the wrinkle that makes me lean toward the idea that Hillary will win anyway.
basically the system is corrupt. A lot of people don't like to hear this but i think there's VERY good evidence that Bush won Florida, and the following election Ohio by messing with the votes in both states. I think that the Dems have also played with voting in various city and state elections. all using various tools and tactics.
But this go round many of the big corporate players and the political establishment of both parties are against Trump. so they can pool their efforts in fixing the vote. if not pool their efforts at the lest turn a blind eye to each others efforts to make it happen the way they like. putting a trusted establishment crony ... Hillary Clinton... in the the White House.

that's my take.

Not matter what, unless God steps in, I think the country will be worse off in many ways in 5 years.

[Gunny]

Anyone watching the news this morning? Trump has created his own Civil War. If I was a conspiracy theorist I'd say the Dems were paying him to do it.