Kathianne
04-27-2016, 02:44 PM
and last I saw he was leading:
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/04/27/trumps-other-big-win-last-night-he-cleaned-up-among-pennsylvanias-unbound-delegates/
Trump’s other big win last night: He cleaned up among Pennsylvania’s unbound delegatesPOSTED AT 2:01 PM ON APRIL 27, 2016 BY ALLAHPUNDIT
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In other words, 28 newly elected delegates in Pennsylvania are openly pro-Trump and another 10 have promised to support the winner of the popular vote in their congressional district last night, which was also Trump. Cruz’s big win in Wisconsin a few weeks ago netted him 36 delegates versus just six for Trump; Trump managed to more than offset that last night by beating Cruz 38/4 in the sort of delegate “invisible primary” where Cruz has been cleaning up in other states. That’s a big deal, as it means Trump is a bit closer to 1,237 than most forecasters expected him to be at this point. He also beat expectations in Maryland and Connecticut, where Kasich looked poised a few weeks ago to peel off a few districts. Instead Trump swept both states, netting 66 delegates in the process. Combine his wipeouts there with his surprising showing in the PA delegate races and suddenly Indiana isn’t really a must-win for him after all. It’s a must-win for Cruz, as Trump taking IN would add a few dozen more delegates to his total and give him a comfortable margin of error in California. But even if Cruz sweeps the state and takes all 57, Trump did well enough last night that he stands a fair chance of clinching before the convention anyway. Nate Cohn (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/27/upshot/why-donald-trump-is-probably-two-states-from-victory.html) runs the numbers:
Mr. Trump could be as few as 270 delegates from the 1,237 he needs when all of Tuesday’s delegates have been awarded.
He’s a safe bet in New Jersey and West Virginia, though he might not win as many delegates as he hopes in West Virginia’s delegate selection primary. He’s nonetheless likely to win at least 70 from those two contests, and perhaps as many as 85.
He could win a further 40 delegates (or even more) from three states that award delegates proportionally: Washington, Oregon and New Mexico. He is likely to garner a healthy share of delegates in those states, whether he wins or not.
One election-watcher (who’s including Pennsylvania’s unbound delegates in his numbers) has Trump at 979 likely delegates (https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/725195782547189760) right now, which would put him a mere 258 away from clinching. If Cohn’s more conservative projection for New Jersey and West Virginia proves correct, that means Trump would need just 148 delegates from Indiana and California combined. If instead Trump cleans up in NJ and WV — which is how I’d bet given his dominance in the mid-Atlantic last night — he’d need a mere 133. California alone has 172 delegates at stake and is winner-take-all by district; Trump leads in every poll there right now, and the last few polls have had him winning going away. It’s not implausible that he’ll take 133 or even 148 delegates from California alone, the sort of big blue state where he’s dominated so far, and clinch the nomination even if he gets nothing from Indiana. And if he does win Indiana, which would net him a minimum of 30 delegates, he’d barely need to break 100 in California to clinch before Cleveland. Before yesterday, next week’s vote in Indiana was set to be a decisive moment on the way to a brokered convention. If Cruz won the state, the CW went, Trump couldn’t realistically get to 1,237 with the delegates left on the board and we’d be set for a floor fight. Now what’s at stake in Indiana is simply making Trump sweat. If Cruz wins, he gets one last shot at stopping Trump somehow in California on June 7th. If Cruz loses, the race is effectively over.
...
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/04/27/trumps-other-big-win-last-night-he-cleaned-up-among-pennsylvanias-unbound-delegates/
Trump’s other big win last night: He cleaned up among Pennsylvania’s unbound delegatesPOSTED AT 2:01 PM ON APRIL 27, 2016 BY ALLAHPUNDIT
...
In other words, 28 newly elected delegates in Pennsylvania are openly pro-Trump and another 10 have promised to support the winner of the popular vote in their congressional district last night, which was also Trump. Cruz’s big win in Wisconsin a few weeks ago netted him 36 delegates versus just six for Trump; Trump managed to more than offset that last night by beating Cruz 38/4 in the sort of delegate “invisible primary” where Cruz has been cleaning up in other states. That’s a big deal, as it means Trump is a bit closer to 1,237 than most forecasters expected him to be at this point. He also beat expectations in Maryland and Connecticut, where Kasich looked poised a few weeks ago to peel off a few districts. Instead Trump swept both states, netting 66 delegates in the process. Combine his wipeouts there with his surprising showing in the PA delegate races and suddenly Indiana isn’t really a must-win for him after all. It’s a must-win for Cruz, as Trump taking IN would add a few dozen more delegates to his total and give him a comfortable margin of error in California. But even if Cruz sweeps the state and takes all 57, Trump did well enough last night that he stands a fair chance of clinching before the convention anyway. Nate Cohn (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/27/upshot/why-donald-trump-is-probably-two-states-from-victory.html) runs the numbers:
Mr. Trump could be as few as 270 delegates from the 1,237 he needs when all of Tuesday’s delegates have been awarded.
He’s a safe bet in New Jersey and West Virginia, though he might not win as many delegates as he hopes in West Virginia’s delegate selection primary. He’s nonetheless likely to win at least 70 from those two contests, and perhaps as many as 85.
He could win a further 40 delegates (or even more) from three states that award delegates proportionally: Washington, Oregon and New Mexico. He is likely to garner a healthy share of delegates in those states, whether he wins or not.
One election-watcher (who’s including Pennsylvania’s unbound delegates in his numbers) has Trump at 979 likely delegates (https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/725195782547189760) right now, which would put him a mere 258 away from clinching. If Cohn’s more conservative projection for New Jersey and West Virginia proves correct, that means Trump would need just 148 delegates from Indiana and California combined. If instead Trump cleans up in NJ and WV — which is how I’d bet given his dominance in the mid-Atlantic last night — he’d need a mere 133. California alone has 172 delegates at stake and is winner-take-all by district; Trump leads in every poll there right now, and the last few polls have had him winning going away. It’s not implausible that he’ll take 133 or even 148 delegates from California alone, the sort of big blue state where he’s dominated so far, and clinch the nomination even if he gets nothing from Indiana. And if he does win Indiana, which would net him a minimum of 30 delegates, he’d barely need to break 100 in California to clinch before Cleveland. Before yesterday, next week’s vote in Indiana was set to be a decisive moment on the way to a brokered convention. If Cruz won the state, the CW went, Trump couldn’t realistically get to 1,237 with the delegates left on the board and we’d be set for a floor fight. Now what’s at stake in Indiana is simply making Trump sweat. If Cruz wins, he gets one last shot at stopping Trump somehow in California on June 7th. If Cruz loses, the race is effectively over.
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