If Trump gets 1100 delegates but is denied the nomination, will he endorse Hillary?

[tailfins]

I mean 1100 on the first ballot. August would be too late to start an effort to get on the ballot in most states.

[jimnyc]

I mean 1100 on the first ballot. August would be too late to start an effort to get on the ballot in most states.

Hopefully mount an independent bid strong enough to kill off the other runner - and that's IF thinks are "taken" away from him. He would in fact take millions with him. He may not be able to get on the ballot in every state, but don't think this is the case in ALL the states, because he could and would win and get on many ballots, and enough to do some serious damage with those that support him. Here's an example from Virginia, and these 'sore loser' laws are similar in many states. So don't think he can't mount an independent bid.

-----

'Sore loser' law likely wouldn't keep Trump from running as independent



If Republicans deny Donald Trump the presidential nomination at the GOP convention in Cleveland this summer, would Virginia’s “sore loser” law bar him from running as an independent here in November?

A Virginia authority on election law and a national authority on ballot access don’t think it would bar Trump from running.

But experts at the Virginia Department of Elections are not certain.

“Considering the fact that this would be an issue of first impression for Virginia” — in other words, a new legal question — “and the fact that there is ambiguity in the statutes pertaining to this matter, the department must seek counsel from the Attorney General’s Office before providing specific guidance on this question,” said Martin Mash, confidential policy adviser to the Virginia Department of Elections.

Trump has repeatedly threatened to bolt the GOP and run as an independent if he thinks party officials are treating him unfairly.

Last September he pledged to support the Republican nominee in the fall. But in an interview Thursday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” he again said that he might leave the party and run as an independent, asserting “I am not being treated properly.”

Then on Thursday night, at the end of the GOP debate in Detroit, Trump said he will support the Republican nominee.

Virginia’s “sore loser” law comes under Section 24.2-250 of the state code. It says that a candidate for nomination by primary for any office must file a written declaration of candidacy.

It says the declaration shall include “the name of the political party of which the candidate is a member, a designation of the office for which he is a candidate, and a statement that, if defeated in the primary, his name is not to be printed on the ballots for that office in the succeeding general election.”

The catch is that Trump was not defeated in Virginia’s GOP primary on Tuesday. He won.

William Hurd, a partner at Troutman Sanders and former Virginia solicitor general and deputy attorney general, served as the lead counsel for the statewide recount when Bob McDonnell edged Democrat Creigh Deeds in the 2005 race for attorney general.

Hurd does not think the Virginia law would bar Trump from running in the state as an independent this fall.

First of all, Trump did not lose the primary, Hurd said. Hurd also notes that the code section refers to a candidate “for nomination by primary.”

Trump “is not a candidate for nomination for office by primary,” Hurd said. “He is a candidate for nomination by a national convention.”

To make matters murkier, Sections 24.2-544 and 24.2-545 of the Virginia Code deal with procedures for Virginia presidential primaries and the requirements to get on the primary ballot. But they are silent about whether a candidate in a Virginia presidential primary can run again in the general election.

Richard Winger, editor of Ballot Access News, a national elections newsletter based in San Francisco, said Trump clearly may run as an independent in Virginia this fall if he chooses.

In Virginia’s Super Tuesday Democratic primary in March 1988, Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis finished third, behind the Rev. Jesse Jackson and Sen. Al Gore, D-Tenn., Winger said. That November, Dukakis was on Virginia’s general election ballot as the Democratic nominee for president.

http://www.roanoke.com/news/politics/sore-loser-law-likely-wouldn-t-keep-trump-from-running/article_1bf8fb7d-437d-5264-aab4-22e2258af6ae.html

[tailfins]

Sore loser laws would only keep Trump off the ballot in Texas and South Dakota. The GOP convention ends July 15. The deadlines would be guaranteed to keep him off the ballot in DE, FL, GA, IL, IN, NV, NM, NC, OK, SC, TX. The deadlines very close to the end of the convention will prevent him from gathering the necessary signatures: MD, MA, MI, MO, NE, PA, WI

That's 19 states where he wouldn't be on the ballot. Let's say for analysis sake he gets a plurality (not majority) of electoral votes as an independent. That would throw the election to the House of Representatives.


https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates



<tbody>

[hide]
Petition signature requirements for independent presidential candidates, 2016


State
Formula
Example of signatures needed
Filing deadline


Alabama
5,000
5,000
8/18/2016


Alaska
1% of the total number of state voters who cast ballots for president in the most recent election
3,005
8/10/2016


Arizona
3% of all registered voters who are not affiliated with a qualified political party
36,000
9/9/2016


Arkansas
1,000
1,000
8/1/2016


California
1% of the total number of registered voters in the state at the time of the close of registration prior to the preceding general election
178,039
8/12/2016


Colorado
5,000
5,000
8/10/2016


Connecticut
1% of the total vote cast for president in the most recent election, or 7,500, whichever is less
7,500
8/10/2016


Delaware
1% of the total number of registered voters in the state
6,500
7/15/2016


Florida
1% of the total number of registered voters in the state
119,316
7/15/2016


Georgia
Temporary court order applying only to 2016 candidates
7,500
7/12/2016


Hawaii
1% of the total number of votes cast in the state for president in the most recent election
4,347
8/10/2016


Idaho
1,000
1,000
8/24/2016


Illinois
1% of the total number of voters in the most recent statewide general election, or 25,000, whichever is less
25,000
6/27/2016


Indiana
2% of the total vote cast for secretary of state in the most recent election
26,700
6/30/2016


Iowa
1,500 eligible voters from at least 10 of the state's counties
1,500
8/19/2016


Kansas
5,000
5,000
8/1/2016


Kentucky
5,000
5,000
9/9/2016


Louisiana
5,000
5,000
8/19/2016


Maine
Between 4,000 and 6,000
4,000
8/1/2016


Maryland
1% of the total number of registered state voters
38,000
8/1/2016


Massachusetts
10,000
10,000
8/2/2016


Michigan
30,000
30,000
7/21/2016


Minnesota
2,000
2,000
8/23/2016


Mississippi
1,000
1,000
9/9/2016


Missouri
10,000
10,000
7/25/2016


Montana
5% of the total votes cast for the successful candidate for governor in the last election, or 5,000, whichever is less
5,000
8/17/2016


Nebraska
2,500 registered voters who did not vote in any party's primary
2,500
8/1/2016


Nevada
1% of the total number of votes cast for all representatives in Congress in the last election
5,431
7/8/2016


New Hampshire
3,000 voters, with at least 1,500 from each congressional district
3,000
8/10/2016


New Jersey
800
800
8/1/2016


New Mexico
3% of the total votes cast for governor in the last general election
15,388
6/30/2016


New York
15,000, with at least 100 from each of the state's congressional districts
15,000
8/23/2016


North Carolina
2% of the total votes cast for governor in the previous general election
89,366
6/9/2016


North Dakota
4,000
4,000
9/5/2016


Ohio
5,000
5,000
8/10/2016


Oklahoma
3% of the total votes cast in the last general election for president
40,047
7/15/2016


Oregon
1% of the total votes cast in the last general election for president
17,893
8/30/2016


Pennsylvania
2% of the largest entire vote cast for any elected candidate in the state at the last preceding election at which statewide candidates were voted for"
25,000
8/1/2016


Rhode Island
1,000
1,000
9/9/2016


South Carolina
5% of registered voters up to 10,000
10,000
7/15/2016


South Dakota
1% of the combined vote for governor in the last election
2,775
8/2/2016


Tennessee
25 votes per state elector (275 total)
275
8/18/2016


Texas
1% of the total votes cast for all candidates in the previous presidential election
79,939
5/9/2016


Utah
1,000
1,000
8/15/2016


Vermont
1,000
1,000
8/1/2016


Virginia
5,000 registered voters, with at least 200 from each congressional district
5,000
8/26/2016


Washington
1,000
1,000
7/23/2016


Washington, D.C.
1% of the district's qualified voters
4,600
8/10/2016


West Virginia
1% of the total votes cast in the state for president in the most recent election
6,705
8/1/2016


Wisconsin
Between 2,000 and 4,000
2,000
8/2/2016


Wyoming
2% of the total number of votes cast for United States Representative in the most recent general election
3,302
8/30/2016


TOTALS
884,428


<small>Note: Two states (Colorado and Louisiana) allow independent candidates to pay filing fees in lieu of submitting petitions.
Sources: This information was compiled by Ballotpedia staff in November 2015. These figures were verified against those published by Richard Winger (https://ballotpedia.org/Richard_Winger) in the October 2015 print edition (http://ballot-access.org/2015/10/28/october-2015-ballot-access-news-print-edition/) of Ballot Access News.</small>

</tbody>

[tailfins]

This conversation just led me to one of those things that make you go "hmmmmm". The states where Trump couldn't get on the ballot are generally Republican leaning states. A Trump third-party run could HELP Republicans put states like NY, PA, CT, ME, NH, VT into play.

[Voted4Reagan]

This conversation just led me to one of those things that make you go "hmmmmm". The states where Trump couldn't get on the ballot are generally Republican leaning states. A Trump third-party run could HELP Republicans put states like NY, PA, CT, ME, NH, VT into play.

Are you that inept??

A third party candidate from the republican side in the General election splits the vote on the right and hands all those states to Hillary or Bernie...

no republican has won any of those states since the 1980's

A 3rd party ensures that the Liberals win

[tailfins]

Are you that inept??

A third party candidate from the republican side in the General election splits the vote on the right and hands all those states to Hillary or Bernie...

no republican has won any of those states since the 1980's

A 3rd party ensures that the Liberals win

Note to general public: This is instructive. Above is what you call a "conformity enforcer". If anyone dare challenge their "hunches", they respond with retaliation. You don't want this type of person in any endeavor that you care about. While those that think outside the box study data and look for counter-intuitive surprises, the "conformity enforcer" attempts to shut down any such exploration. You want types that keep curiosity alive, those that are willing to make 500 failed variations until the 501st yields a solution. If someone has better data than I regarding in which states Trump could make it onto the ballot in a third-party bid, I would love to see it. Even better, polling on how a Trump third-party bid would affect states that would not otherwise be competitive.

[Kathianne]

Personally I'm a bit tired of those that say one must just 'suck it up' and vote Trump if he gets the nomination-otherwise one is 'voting for Hillary.'

That's not how I feel.

1. The lesser of two evils is still evil-in this case it's a known 'evil' v a very boorish 'unknown' evil
2. My vote is wasted. No more so than yours, unless someone here is on the electoral college
3. My stands are closer to Gary Johnson than either of the two evils. Certainly not a perfect match, but better.
4. Voting against Trump, should he win the nomination, is very much as principled in 'telling off' the GOP as any of those voting for Trump. The party will reform or those last gasps will turn into silence.

[jimnyc]

Sore loser laws would only keep Trump off the ballot in Texas and South Dakota. The GOP convention ends July 15. The deadlines would be guaranteed to keep him off the ballot in DE, FL, GA, IL, IN, NV, NM, NC, OK, SC, TX. The deadlines very close to the end of the convention will prevent him from gathering the necessary signatures: MD, MA, MI, MO, NE, PA, WI

That's 19 states where he wouldn't be on the ballot. Let's say for analysis sake he gets a plurality (not majority) of electoral votes as an independent. That would throw the election to the House of Representatives.


WAY more than enough states for him to take out any other runners. He would take millions of voters with him, likely from every state.

And what would he be doing, running against someone else on the right, trying to prevent that person from winning - just as so many from within the GOP are trying to do to him right now. I wouldn't blame him at all for doing so.

[tailfins]

Personally I'm a bit tired of those that say one must just 'suck it up' and vote Trump if he gets the nomination-otherwise one is 'voting for Hillary.'

That's not how I feel.

1. The lesser of two evils is still evil-in this case it's a known 'evil' v a very boorish 'unknown' evil
2. My vote is wasted. No more so than yours, unless someone here is on the electoral college
3. My stands are closer to Gary Johnson than either of the two evils. Certainly not a perfect match, but better.
4. Voting against Trump, should he win the nomination, is very much as principled in 'telling off' the GOP as any of those voting for Trump. The party will reform or those last gasps will turn into silence.

There's a significant chance that the tables will be turned. I think the most likely first ballot is in the neighborhood of:

Trump: 1100
Cruz: 950
Kasich: 250
Rubio: 150
Others: 25

If Cruz is the nominee, I wonder what they will do in November. Trump supporters seem to carefully avoid that question.

[tailfins]

WAY more than enough states for him to take out any other runners. He would take millions of voters with him, likely from every state.

And what would he be doing, running against someone else on the right, trying to prevent that person from winning - just as so many from within the GOP are trying to do to him right now. I wouldn't blame him at all for doing so.

Hence, my question if he would endorse Hillary Clinton.

[jimnyc]

This conversation just led me to one of those things that make you go "hmmmmm". The states where Trump couldn't get on the ballot are generally Republican leaning states. A Trump third-party run could HELP Republicans put states like NY, PA, CT, ME, NH, VT into play.

Bottom line, and a big IF, but if Trump gets crapped on, and he decides to mount something outside the republican party, he can do a ton of damage, more than enough to cost whoever the GOP tosses out there. You may see that as help in those states, but he can kill the chances in other states. And guess what? He would be doing the same thing to the candidate and the gop party as they are currently doing to him - exactly the same.

[jimnyc]

If Cruz is the nominee, I wonder what they will do in November. Trump supporters seem to carefully avoid that question.

No one has avoided your questioning. It all depends on the exact numbers, and exactly what takes place should the number not be reached. But in November? What is happening right now may cost the party November.


Hence, my question if he would endorse Hillary Clinton.

His trying to prevent would only be from running himself. And deservedly so.

[tailfins]

No one has avoided your questioning. It all depends on the exact numbers, and exactly what takes place should the number not be reached. But in November? What is happening right now may cost the party November.



His trying to prevent would only be from running himself. And deservedly so.

OK, let's suppose it's Cruz will be 150 less than Trump, and Trump 137 less than a majority.

[jimnyc]

OK, let's suppose it's Cruz will be 150 less than Trump, and Trump 137 less than a majority.

I may lean Cruz to keep Hillary out of office, that's #1 to me... BUT

As for Trump, I'd still support him going solo and fucking things up. He would only do what has been being done to him for quite some time now. If the party let things flow as-is, and then things played out that way it's one thing. But between them bringing in Romney, the non-stop ads against him, the non-stop pushing of a contested convention.... they are trying to PUSH him out before hand and plan his demise, which is not what it should all be about for the party as a whole. So while I don't want to see Hillary in office, I wouldn't blame Trump for hitting back if that's what it comes to. They would have drawn "first blood", and him simply doing what he has to do since they worked so hard against him.