There won't be a contested convention

[jimnyc]

I was messing with some numbers. Trump currently holds 739 delegates. I added in "winner take all" states that he holds large leads in:

New York - 95 (Ok, winner takes most in this particular one, but he has a 52% lead right now. Let's just say he gets 50 in this one and the rest for Ted, and that's being generous.
Maryland - 38
Pennsylvania - 71 (I'll get back to this one)
California - 172
New Jersey - 51

I did not include any states that Cruz has a lead in the polls, nor did I add any where Trump has a tiny lead, nor added any in that have no polls.

With this alone, where he holds good leads, the total for him will be around - 1166 delegates.

Now, the Pennsylvania one has closer polls in some areas, so let's get drastic and get rid of that one as well. That leaves Trump with 1095. He needs 1237 to win. That's about 142 delegates shy.

Connecticut - 28
Rhode Island - 19
Oregon - 28
Washington - 44
New Mexico - 24

Trump will get some of those delegates, how many will be left to see. That's another 143 delegates that will be given out proportionality. Even at only 20% that is say like 35 delegates (assuming worst), leaving him with 1130 delegates. That's 107 shy of what he needs AND being extremely generous here in the proportionate states.

That leaves the states with no polls or polls too close to call as of yet.

Wisconsin goes to Cruz (my guess)
Delaware - 16 winner take all
Pennsylvania - I have this listed up top, but could very well go Cruz's way
Indiana - 57 winner take all
Nebraska - 36 winner take all
West Virginia - 34
Montana - 27 winner take all
South Dakota - 29

Cruz will likely need to win big in the proportionate states, and then perhaps sweep in these states totaling 312 delegates. Of course let's not forget Kasich, but I don't see him getting but more than a handful of delegates from those proportionate states.

Short of an implosion, or Cruz winning like 90%+ of the rest of the primaries, I believe the contested convention talk doesn't take place. Cruz needs a miracle.

[Kathianne]

I think Jim's analysis is pretty good, there will be no issues if he hits the number.

[tailfins]

I was messing with some numbers. Trump currently holds 739 delegates. I added in "winner take all" states that he holds large leads in:

New York - 95 (Ok, winner takes most in this particular one, but he has a 52% lead right now. Let's just say he gets 50 in this one and the rest for Ted, and that's being generous.
Maryland - 38
Pennsylvania - 71 (I'll get back to this one)
California - 172
New Jersey - 51

I did not include any states that Cruz has a lead in the polls, nor did I add any where Trump has a tiny lead, nor added any in that have no polls.

With this alone, where he holds good leads, the total for him will be around - 1166 delegates.

Now, the Pennsylvania one has closer polls in some areas, so let's get drastic and get rid of that one as well. That leaves Trump with 1095. He needs 1237 to win. That's about 142 delegates shy.

Connecticut - 28
Rhode Island - 19
Oregon - 28
Washington - 44
New Mexico - 24

Trump will get some of those delegates, how many will be left to see. That's another 143 delegates that will be given out proportionality. Even at only 20% that is say like 35 delegates (assuming worst), leaving him with 1130 delegates. That's 107 shy of what he needs AND being extremely generous here in the proportionate states.

That leaves the states with no polls or polls too close to call as of yet.

Wisconsin goes to Cruz (my guess)
Delaware - 16 winner take all
Pennsylvania - I have this listed up top, but could very well go Cruz's way
Indiana - 57 winner take all
Nebraska - 36 winner take all
West Virginia - 34
Montana - 27 winner take all
South Dakota - 29

Cruz will likely need to win big in the proportionate states, and then perhaps sweep in these states totaling 312 delegates. Of course let's not forget Kasich, but I don't see him getting but more than a handful of delegates from those proportionate states.

Short of an implosion, or Cruz winning like 90%+ of the rest of the primaries, I believe the contested convention talk doesn't take place. Cruz needs a miracle.

Here are some flaws in your analysis:

1) California: The vast majority of CA delegates (159) is winner-take-all by Congressional district. A good district level strategy could get Cruz perhaps 75 and Kasich 21.
2) Pennsylvania: Only 17 delegates are bound (some sources say 20). The rest are unbound.
3) New York: NY also allocates by congressional district. Cruz has a good shot a 9 delegates from NY as well as Kasich an additional 9.
4) Maryland: Also by congressional district. Cruz can get 6. Kasich can get 6.

That drops your 1166 to 983

At 983, Trump will need 192 delegates to get to 1175, which is Trump's de facto magic number. The 1175 assumes he convinces 62 unpledged delegates to vote for him on the first ballot.

Indiana is also winner take all by Congressional district.

Political analyst Larry Sabato compiled a table for Trump's targets to get to 1239:

If there is a leakage of more than 65 delegates from the below chart, Trump will likely NOT get the nomination.

My guess is the leakage will come from the following places:
WI: 18
NY: 6
MD: 12
PA: 6
IN: 30
CA: 30
NM: 6

Total: 108

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/assessing-trumps-path-to-1237/

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/content/images/GVS2016032401-table1.png

[jimnyc]

At 983, Trump will need 192 delegates to get to 1175, which is Trump's de facto magic number. The 1175 assumes he convinces 62 unpledged delegates to vote for him on the first ballot.

Well done! And thanks for that, as I'm FAR from an expert when it comes to primaries and the rules. There are quite a few states left, with Trump leading in quite a few. Cruz will still need to win that 85-90%+ in order to take those delegates away from Trump. Some districts here and there aren't going to do it. But you could be right!! Don't forget, what you point out is what he CAN POSSIBLY get, while I posted the less generous of Trump situations.

But honestly, I'm not so sure it matters anymore. It's going to be a difficult road for anyone against Hillary, unless she rightfully gets indicted and sees handcuffs. But outside of that, we have the party working against itself, and not just against Trump. I think unless the party unites, the election is going to the witch from hell.

[gabosaurus]

But outside of that, we have the party working against itself, and not just against Trump. I think unless the party unites, the election is going to the witch from hell.

https://i.imgflip.com/11jw7d.jpg

[Black Diamond]

Well done! And thanks for that, as I'm FAR from an expert when it comes to primaries and the rules. There are quite a few states left, with Trump leading in quite a few. Cruz will still need to win that 85-90%+ in order to take those delegates away from Trump. Some districts here and there aren't going to do it. But you could be right!! Don't forget, what you point out is what he CAN POSSIBLY get, while I posted the less generous of Trump situations.

But honestly, I'm not so sure it matters anymore. It's going to be a difficult road for anyone against Hillary, unless she rightfully gets indicted and sees handcuffs. But outside of that, we have the party working against itself, and not just against Trump. I think unless the party unites, the election is going to the witch from hell.
Still a long way to go.

[Black Diamond]

In March 1980, Carter led Reagan by 25 points.

[Gunny]

https://i.imgflip.com/11jw7d.jpg

Disgusting, but probably true.

[gabosaurus]

In March 1980, Carter led Reagan by 25 points.

This is before Carter made his inept attempt to rescue the American hostages in Tehran and before Reagan pulled off his "arms for hostages" deal with the terrorists.

[Gunny]

This is before Carter made his inept attempt to rescue the American hostages in Tehran and before Reagan pulled off his "arms for hostages" deal with the terrorists.

Bullshit. Carter brokered that plan. Everyone credits Reagan but it was YOUR boy that did it. Read some history. Not the revisionist leftwing BS history.

Carter's inept attempt was based solely on his neglect of the military. The whole operation was stupid. Starting with the filters on the choppers.

[tailfins]

This is before Carter made his inept attempt to rescue the American hostages in Tehran and before Reagan pulled off his "arms for hostages" deal with the terrorists.

I remember that time quite well. Jobs were scarce; prices were rising. I remember that gasoline was $1.22 per gallon. There was a thing called the misery index. Peanut brain tells everyone to turn down their thermostat. He pressured states to vigorously enforce the national 55 MPH speed limit, withholding funds for states under 85% compliance. Carter was urinating on the American public and was sent packing.

[Black Diamond]

I remember that time quite well. Jobs were scarce; prices were rising. I remember that gasoline was $1.22 per gallon. There was a thing called the misery index. Peanut brain tells everyone to turn down their thermostat. He pressured states to vigorously enforce the national 55 MPH speed limit, withholding funds for states under 85% compliance. Carter was urinating on the American public and was sent packing.minor details.

[Gunny]

I remember that time quite well. Jobs were scarce; prices were rising. I remember that gasoline was $1.22 per gallon. There was a thing called the misery index. Peanut brain tells everyone to turn down their thermostat. He pressured states to vigorously enforce the national 55 MPH speed limit, withholding funds for states under 85% compliance. Carter was urinating on the American public and was sent packing.

I remember all that crap but the one thing I can say about Jimmy Carter is he's a good man. He let his ideology override his pragmatism, but nonetheless, he was a good man. That was his biggest problem. He was an independent who ran as a Dem and his own party hosed him over. Militarily, I can't fathom a Naval officer being so dumb.

Deja vu. What exactly does anyone think the GOP is going to support under Trump? So he's going to pull an Obama and use his pen and phone. Why don't we just elect a king and be done with it? Obama's ruled by edict for 7+ years and Trump will have to do the same. Matter of fact, how about we just quit paying Congress? They have one thing to do all year and that's a budget and they can't even get that right.

[Elessar]

This is before Carter made his inept attempt to rescue the American hostages in Tehran and before Reagan pulled off his "arms for hostages" deal with the terrorists.

Mule Muffins, Gabby.

Carter was the weakest president of the past 60 years.

As a graduate of Annapolis and a Naval Officer, he should have had better sense.

But he chose the Kum-By-Yah approach to Defense and Foreign Policy, even
though the Viet Nam draw-downs were still in effect. He could have stood forth for
the USA can squashed things....but like Billy Clinton and Obama, he chose to do
nothing but rattle a cardboard sword.

[Gunny]

Mule Muffins, Gabby.

Carter was the weakest president of the past 60 years.

As a graduate of Annapolis and a Naval Officer, he should have had better sense.

But he chose the Kum-By-Yah approach to Defense and Foreign Policy, even
though the Viet Nam draw-downs were still in effect. He could have stood forth for
the USA can squashed things....but like Billy Clinton and Obama, he chose to do
nothing but rattle a cardboard sword.

He's actually the second weakest now.

[Elessar]

He's actually the second weakest now.

Yep! I agree...

The first weakest occupies the White House, Golf Courses, and resorts
right now.

Weak assed Liberals love Obama.

[Gunny]

Yep! I agree...

The first weakest occupies the White House, Golf Courses, and resorts
right now.

Weak assed Liberals love Obama.

Think about it though. What has the Dems/left actually done for any of these so called impoverished people? All I've seen them do is restrict the Rights of the everyone as a facade to placate these brain-dead imbeciles.

I guess O-blah-blah did give them cell phones. After all, a cell phone, cable TV and an X-Box are human rights. :rolleyes: