Why a Contested Convention Favors Cruz

[tailfins]

I'm amazed at people who DEMAND the rules that call for a majority, which have existed since the founding of the GOP in 1856 be changed just for Donald.


Why a Contested Convention Favors Cruz


He points to Arizona as an example. Trump won the state’s primary on Tuesday evening, but regardless of what any campaign does, the majority of Arizona’s 58 delegates, who are unbound after the first ballot, are likely to defect to Cruz on subsequent votes.

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433136/republican-contested-convention-favors-ted-cruz-over-donald-trump

[NightTrain]

I'm amazed at people who DEMAND the rules that call for a majority, which have existed since the founding of the GOP in 1856 be changed just for Donald.


Why a Contested Convention Favors Cruz




National Review? Why not quote DU or PuffHo for anti-Trump rhetoric?

http://www.debatepolicy.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=8666&stc=1

[Black Diamond]

Maybe Cruz can convince the delegates that Trump has dropped out.

[tailfins]

Maybe Cruz can convince the delegates that Trump has dropped out.

The same meme, even when the facts say otherwise.

[tailfins]

A similar analysis from the Wall Street Journal if you prefer:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ted-cruz-gains-in-louisiana-after-loss-there-to-donald-trump-1458861959

[hjmick]

I can't help but think that a contested convention favors the voter. I believe that Trump has successfully made himself one of the most loathsome characters in recent political history. He is, from what I have heard, currently only garnering 19% support among women. I find it difficult to believe he wins the White House without more support from the gentler sex... People keep telling me that a vote for anyone but Trump is a vote for Hillary, I can't help but think that Trump winning the nomination makes Hillary a shoe-in for the job... Personally, I can't stand either of them and I can't see how any of us benefit by their presence in the Oval Office... The only way I cast my vote for the GOP this season is if by some miracle Kasich gets the nod and that's not fucking likely... The rest of them are a GOD damned embarrassment, if you don't think so then you haven't been paying attention... Or you are too blinded by bias and partisanship, two things that have driven this country to where it is now... I'd rather vote my conscience, pull the lever for Gary Johnson, and rest easy at night knowing I voted for the person I truly believe is the best for the job... At least when things get shittier under Trump or Clinton, and I firmly believe they will, I can say "Fuck you, I didn't vote for that turd..." It ain't much but it's something...



...end rant...

[Black Diamond]

I can't help but think that a contested convention favors the voter. I believe that Trump has successfully made himself one of the most loathsome characters in recent political history. He is, from what I have heard, currently only garnering 19% support among women. I find it difficult to believe he wins the White House without more support from the gentler sex... People keep telling me that a vote for anyone but Trump is a vote for Hillary, I can't help but think that Trump winning the nomination makes Hillary a shoe-in for the job... Personally, I can't stand either of them and I can't see how any of us benefit by their presence in the Oval Office... The only way I cast my vote for the GOP this season is if by some miracle Kasich gets the nod and that's not fucking likely... The rest of them are a GOD damned embarrassment, if you don't think so then you haven't been paying attention... Or you are too blinded by bias and partisanship, two things that have driven this country to where it is now... I'd rather vote my conscience, pull the lever for Gary Johnson, and rest easy at night knowing I voted for the person I truly believe is the best for the job... At least when things get shittier under Trump or Clinton, and I firmly believe they will, I can say "Fuck you, I didn't vote for that turd..." It ain't much but it's something...



...end rant...

First off I love your rants.

But if Kasich or even worse, someone no longer running, "wins" the nomination, there will be Hell to pay. I just don't know the degree of Hell..

[hjmick]

But if Kasich or even worse, someone no longer running, "wins" the nomination, there will be Hell to pay. I just don't know the degree of Hell..


It would certainly be interesting...



And thanks for the love...

[jimnyc]

I can't help but think that a contested convention favors the voter. I believe that Trump has successfully made himself one of the most loathsome characters in recent political history. He is, from what I have heard, currently only garnering 19% support among women. I find it difficult to believe he wins the White House without more support from the gentler sex... People keep telling me that a vote for anyone but Trump is a vote for Hillary, I can't help but think that Trump winning the nomination makes Hillary a shoe-in for the job... Personally, I can't stand either of them and I can't see how any of us benefit by their presence in the Oval Office... The only way I cast my vote for the GOP this season is if by some miracle Kasich gets the nod and that's not fucking likely... The rest of them are a GOD damned embarrassment, if you don't think so then you haven't been paying attention... Or you are too blinded by bias and partisanship, two things that have driven this country to where it is now... I'd rather vote my conscience, pull the lever for Gary Johnson, and rest easy at night knowing I voted for the person I truly believe is the best for the job... At least when things get shittier under Trump or Clinton, and I firmly believe they will, I can say "Fuck you, I didn't vote for that turd..." It ain't much but it's something...



...end rant...

Hell, I'll be the first to say that none of them are perfect, not even Trump, not Kasich, not Cruz, nor anyone else bounced out already. I suppose everyone is looking for a little something different, and what the priorities are on all of the things they are looking for. With that said, Trump is still clearly my man.

The last thing I want is what we have had before, and that is definitely what Hillary is offering, and I also believe the other from the GOP as well. Trump leads in everything "I" am looking for in a president.

If women run to Hillary it's because they are delusional and lead by a carrot on a stick from a career liar. At least with Trump I know where he is coming from, even if many don't like the way he says it.

And yes, I know a lot of this is followed by 'Planned parenthood - and a couple of other things' he has changed stances on over the years. I'm cool with that. There aren't a whole lot of politicians out there that haven't changed certain stances.

And be forewarned, and NOT FROM ME, but just as many will sit back IF you're end game is correct, and state that if folks went with the majority and worked in unity as a team, that Hillary wouldn't be in office. Saw that same blame game in the early 90's with Perot - and many to this day still blame Perot AND those who voted for him for putting Clinton in office. It's the nature of the game. Some are going to blame no matter what, from both sides of the aisle. Me? For years, and from day one this year - I have always said that I make a list of a ton of things that I would like to see, see who rates the highest based on that. Simply put, for me, Trump simply ranks higher in the things "I'm" looking for.

[tailfins]

First off I love your rants.

But if Kasich or even worse, someone no longer running, "wins" the nomination, there will be Hell to pay. I just don't know the degree of Hell..

So there will be hell to pay if long-standing rules are followed? Trump's magic number is about 1175 delegates. At 1150, Trump will likely lose the nomination.

[jimnyc]

So there will be hell to pay if long-standing rules are followed? Trump's magic number is about 1175 delegates. At 1150, Trump will likely lose the nomination.

Yes, within the rules, but ain't happening, so don't get your hopes up with a lot of the articles from upset folks lingering for this. If Trump falls 25 short, he will get the nomination.

[Black Diamond]

So there will be hell to pay if long-standing rules are followed? Trump's magic number is about 1175 delegates. At 1150, Trump will likely lose the nomination.

Yes even if rules are followed.

[tailfins]

Yes, within the rules, but ain't happening, so don't get your hopes up with a lot of the articles from upset folks lingering for this. If Trump falls 25 short, he will get the nomination.

1237 is the majority. 1175 means convincing 62 delegates that he's "close enough ". If his deficit exceeds 60, more and more delegates will be convinced multiple ballots are necessary.

[tailfins]

Yes even if rules are followed.

That's another angle to attack Trump : his sense of entitlement. He expects centuries old rules to be changed just for him.

[Jeff]

That's another angle to attack Trump : his sense of entitlement. He expects centuries old rules to be changed just for him.

He doesn't expect rules to be changed at all, he is simply telling the truth. I understand rules are rules but if he goes in just missing the number and they give the nomination to one of their puppets well you can bet there will be hell to pay. Lets face it, the only reason Trump is doing as well as he is is that people are tired of the BS from both sides. And yes even though its within the rules people are going to raise hell, people are tired of others rioting and protesting over such things as chalk on steps ( that's right no riots there, they needed to suck their mamma's, well you got the idea ) The way they do the delegates doesn't mean he didn't get the majority and now we have these super pacs doing everything they can do to get folks to stray from him, yea some of us are smart enough to see what is going on and are pissed about it. You can bet your ass if he misses by 25 and they give it to someone else there will be hell to pay. Trump is what ya call a peaceful protest or a peaceful over throw of the government, let them try to slide a puppet in and it isn't going to be peaceful any more, JMO so I guess time will tell.

[Jeff]

http://www.debatepolicy.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=8670&stc=1

[Black Diamond]

http://www.debatepolicy.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=8670&stc=1

I'd like to see those black lives matter ass wipes tangle with them.

[Noir]

Personally, I can't stand either of them and I can't see how any of us benefit by their presence in the Oval Office... The only way I cast my vote for the GOP this season is if by some miracle Kasich gets the nod and that's not fucking likely... The rest of them are a GOD damned embarrassment, if you don't think so then you haven't been paying attention... Or you are too blinded by bias and partisanship, two things that have driven this country to where it is now...

Quality post.
IMO Clinton, Trump, Sanders and Cruz are all unelectable for their own reasons, if a combination of 2 of these end up as the presidential candidates I expect a fair few will go 3rd party.

[jimnyc]

Quality post.
IMO Clinton, Trump, Sanders and Cruz are all unelectable for their own reasons, if a combination of 2 of these end up as the presidential candidates I expect a fair few will go 3rd party.

Yup, agreed. And the worst part is that it helps Clinton the most in any 3rd party candidate scenarios. I don't see a 3rd party run from her side now that Bloomberg is out, at least not a harmful one. And if one arises on the right, that helps Clinton indirectly as well.

And not unelectable, you just mean you don't like them. Because all 3 have a valid chance of being elected.

[tailfins]

http://www.debatepolicy.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=8670&stc=1

Why bother having an election? They can just overthrow the government by force and be done with it. Forget about rules and the law. That's how Fidel Castro came to power. If they do declare war, I think the military will mow them down. I would support martial law if violent Trumpsters tried to overthrow a candidate selected with 1237 delegates. It will be a 21st century version of Kent State.


It's ironic that the convention will be in Ohio.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX95QSKBODo

Maybe something like this will be justified force:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rK-Y8YJl2Fo

[Gunny]

I'd like to see one person one vote. Preferably a live person unlike the Dems who vote after death. People argue about the electoral college but I think it sucks. It takes the power out of our hands.

A contested convention is going to accomplish nothing more than just more of the same old divisiveness. The GOP needs to pull their collective heads out of their asses and get it in gear. Until they do, same game same results. How many times do you need to do the same wrong thing expecting a different result?

The right has no viable candidate. The best ones they had weren't good enough "reality" tv stars. I personally hope whoever it is wins. Anything is preferable to someone that should have been in prison since Whitewater. The right is its own worst enemy right now and until they get that into their little brain housing groups, it ain't going to change.

[Gunny]

Anyone here besides maybe CSM and AT remember Edwin Muskie, Nelson Rockefeller and George Wallace in 68? THAT split convention worked like a charm. :rolleyes: So the GOP gameplan here is to take the epic fails of the Dems and follow them to a t?

I mean, c'mon. Get your shit together folks. Get a plan and go with it. Crap I'd hate to have a bunch you rightwingers in the field. You make a plan and you go with it. Y'all are like herding cats.

[Black Diamond]

Why bother having an election? They can just overthrow the government by force and be done with it. Forget about rules and the law. That's how Fidel Castro came to power. If they do declare war, I think the military will mow them down. I would support martial law if violent Trumpsters tried to overthrow a candidate selected with 1237 delegates. It will be a 21st century version of Kent State.


It's ironic that the convention will be in Ohio.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX95QSKBODo

Maybe something like this will be justified force:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rK-Y8YJl2Fo
When a system allows for mitt Romney or someone else no one voted for to walk into Cleveland and be nominated, why have an election??

[Black Diamond]

Anyone here besides maybe CSM and AT remember Edwin Muskie, Nelson Rockefeller and George Wallace in 68? THAT split convention worked like a charm. :rolleyes: So the GOP gameplan here is to take the epic fails of the Dems and follow them to a t?

I mean, c'mon. Get your shit together folks. Get a plan and go with it. Crap I'd hate to have a bunch you rightwingers in the field. You make a plan and you go with it. Y'all are like herding cats.

The RNC doesnt like what their voters are saying/how they are voting. And I'm not convinced Cruz wins nomination if there's a brokered convention. It could be Kasich or even worse, someone no one voted for.

[tailfins]

The RNC doesnt like what their voters are saying/how they are voting. And I'm not convinced Cruz wins nomination if there's a brokered convention. It could be Kasich or even worse, someone no one voted for.

Rush Limbaugh mentioned this. That much of the establishment would prefer Hillary to Trump or Cruz. While there might be some leakage, Trump and Cruz combined will control more than 80% of the delegates. Convincing over 700 delegates to defect to someone who didn't even run seems really unlikely. Cruz's campaign has been very active arranging for delegates that would vote for him after the first ballot. For example, there's no way that Trump is going to keep 100% of the delegates from Florida, Arizona and South Carolina. They are contractually bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot and that's it. Trump needs about 1175 to get the nomination. 1237 is the majority and it is estimated that 60 to 70 unpledged delegates will vote for Trump if he gets "close enough". It's not the RNC that controls the convention; it's the delegates. The United States is not a democracy, it's a representative republic. Delegates are elected to represent all their constituents. That means trying to find a candidate at least acceptable to a majority of their constituents. 35 or even 40% is not a majority.

[Gunny]

The RNC doesnt like what their voters are saying/how they are voting. And I'm not convinced Cruz wins nomination if there's a brokered convention. It could be Kasich or even worse, someone no one voted for.

The RNC needs to just suck it up. THEY and no one else are responsible for this mess. They have no leadership and no plan. Now, at 10 minutes to midnight they want to start bitching? GMAFB. Get some leadership and a freakin' plan rather than crew clueless sitting around for 9 months doing nothing then whining about the results.

I think I've been clear I'm not happy about Trump. I don't like big-mouth bullies. But, he seized the day because no one else has. In THAT regard, I can't fault him a bit. If the RNC had some leadership and a gameplan he'd never have gotten on the board and Billary would be toast. So maybe somebody ought to get their timid asses out and lead instead of sitting behind the lines and whining about the outcome of their own disaster?

[DLT]

I'm amazed at people who DEMAND the rules that call for a majority, which have existed since the founding of the GOP in 1856 be changed just for Donald.


Why a Contested Convention Favors Cruz



After the sleazy tactics Trump & Co. have used and will no doubt continue to use....I don't care HOW Cruz wins now....as long as he wins.

[Gunny]

After the sleazy tactics Trump & Co. have used and will no doubt continue to use....I don't care HOW Cruz wins now....as long as he wins.

Problem is, we already have a disaster in the making. Splitting the convention would just seal the deal. I'm more concerned with the big picture. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. You'd think the GOP was the 80s Cowboys with Dandy White at QB.

I want the Dems out. I don't even recognize this country from when I was a kid. We need to stop the madness.