Kathianne
03-16-2016, 12:15 PM
http://theweek.com/articles/613027/donald-trump-unstoppable
Donald Trump is unstoppable
...
Long before a single vote had been cast but months after Trump rose to the top of every opinion poll, there was the "Rubio is the virtualfrontrunner (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/25/opinion/sunday/rubio-the-unusual-front-runner.html)" moment. That was followed by the "Trump's support will vanish once the voting begins" consensus. Then, as the primaries and caucuses began and Trump took the lead in delegates and never lost it, we entered the phase that could best be described as "Trump will start faltering as soon as more of his opponents drop out." That lasted for weeks, as one by one, his opponents dropped out.
And yet, Trump kept winning more states. He racked up more delegates than anyone else. Along the way there was the brief "Trump is losing (http://theweek.com/articles/611489/how-gop-stupidly-enabled-donald-trump-comeback)!" boomlet, followed by the emerging conventional wisdom of the past couple of weeks: Even if he finishes in first place, Trump will fail to win more than a plurality of delegates, falling short of the magic number (1,237) needed to become the automatic nominee.
And that brings us to The Present Moment: A contested convention awaits!
No, it doesn't.
...
I went back to look at when I started to really focus on Trump, it was further back than I thought, to illustrate:
http://www.debatepolicy.com/showthread.php?50521-The-Hill-Why-Trump-Is-Surging&p=747399#post747399
I always took his run seriously, though really couldn't foresee what has happened. I don't know whether he or Hillary will be sworn in come January, but I don't think there's any stopping his nomination barring folks turning en masse to Cruz, which is unlikely.
Donald Trump is unstoppable
...
Long before a single vote had been cast but months after Trump rose to the top of every opinion poll, there was the "Rubio is the virtualfrontrunner (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/25/opinion/sunday/rubio-the-unusual-front-runner.html)" moment. That was followed by the "Trump's support will vanish once the voting begins" consensus. Then, as the primaries and caucuses began and Trump took the lead in delegates and never lost it, we entered the phase that could best be described as "Trump will start faltering as soon as more of his opponents drop out." That lasted for weeks, as one by one, his opponents dropped out.
And yet, Trump kept winning more states. He racked up more delegates than anyone else. Along the way there was the brief "Trump is losing (http://theweek.com/articles/611489/how-gop-stupidly-enabled-donald-trump-comeback)!" boomlet, followed by the emerging conventional wisdom of the past couple of weeks: Even if he finishes in first place, Trump will fail to win more than a plurality of delegates, falling short of the magic number (1,237) needed to become the automatic nominee.
And that brings us to The Present Moment: A contested convention awaits!
No, it doesn't.
...
I went back to look at when I started to really focus on Trump, it was further back than I thought, to illustrate:
http://www.debatepolicy.com/showthread.php?50521-The-Hill-Why-Trump-Is-Surging&p=747399#post747399
I always took his run seriously, though really couldn't foresee what has happened. I don't know whether he or Hillary will be sworn in come January, but I don't think there's any stopping his nomination barring folks turning en masse to Cruz, which is unlikely.