Maybe Trump Isn't Inevitable

[Kathianne]

My first taste of eating my words caused by this election, very likely won't be the last:

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/03/08/abcwapo-national-poll-trumps-lead-declines-cruz-rubio-and-kasich-all-gain/


ABC/WaPo national poll: Trump’s lead declines, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich all gain

POSTED AT 11:21 AM ON MARCH 8, 2016 BY ALLAHPUNDIT


We’re 12 hours away from knowing whether the “Trump fade” hinted at by last week’s results is real or not, but if you’re looking for poll data to support the thesis in the meantime, you can’t dobetter than this (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-trump-leads-gop-race-nationally-but-with-weaker-hold-on-the-party/2016/03/07/890cc8d0-e496-11e5-bc08-3e03a5b41910_story.html). I can’t think of a poll taken this year, state or national, that’s looked worse for him. He’s still ahead but Cruz is now within single digits and every important trendline is steering in the wrong direction for him.


I’ve never believed that he has a hard ceiling, for the simple reason that the subtraction of candidates from the field should mean the addition of new votes from that candidate’s supporters to Trump’s totals. And yet, 40 percent looks suspiciously like a ceiling:





https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2044053093/douthatsmall_bigger.jpgRoss DouthatVerified account‏@DouthatNYT (https://twitter.com/DouthatNYT)


I remember when Trump was going to get half the Jeb/Carson/Christie vote and cruise to 45 percent.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CdBpiOgUIAMECPg.jpg






Candidates may be dropping out (Ben Carson was only the latest) but it might also be that anti-Trump sentiment is spreading quickly enough outside Trump’s base that those new votes I mentioned are getting harder to come by.


Favorable ratings also indicate an increasingly tenuous standing within the party. In early January, Republicans clearly gave Trump more favorable than unfavorable reviews, 60 percent to 39 percent. That has narrowed to a 53-46 margin, with negative marks at their highest level in Post-ABC polling since Trump entered the race. His positive ratings also trail Cruz’s 64 percent and Rubio’s 63 percent.

The Post-ABC poll finds that more than half of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents think Trump is dishonest, does not understand their problems, lacks the right experience, and does not have the right personality and temperament to be an effective president. By contrast, more than 6 in 10 Republicans say Cruz is honest, empathetic, and has the right temperament and experience; similar shares say Rubio has the first three qualities, while half say he has the right experience.

In a hypothetical head-to-head test of strength between Trump and Cruz,Republicans say they prefer the senator by 54 to 41 percent. Rubio is a narrower favorite in a one-on-one test against Trump, with an edge of 51 to 45 percent. The survey did not test a Trump-Kasich face-off.



Dip into the crosstabs (http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-national-poll-march-3-6-2016/1982/) and you’ll find that, among non-Trump and non-Cruz voters, Cruz wins … 72/17. In other words, if the field clears, virtually all of Rubio’s and Kasich’s support goes to Cruz over Trump. No wonder Cruz suddenly seems keen to finish off Rubio in Florida by starving him of conservative votes there; if these numbers are right, Cruz could beat Trump the rest of the way even if Trump has Florida in his back pocket.


Another killer data point: The #NeverTrump contingent within the GOP may be larger and more durable than thought.


http://media.hotair.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/nevert.jpg

He has a bare majority of his own party saying they’d be satisfied with his nomination and nearly a third say they’d be “very dissatisfied,” twice as many as say so for any of the other final three. Among the wider electorate, his favorable rating is 30/67(!) and, as noted in the excerpt, he’s collapsed on key “presidential” qualities:


http://media.hotair.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/pres.jpg


To put that in perspective, even Hillary Clinton outpolls him on honesty, finishing with a 37/59 rating. Cruz is at least 15 points better than Trump in every metric; Rubio is at least 15 points better on three of the four, finishing nine points ahead of Trump on having the right experience. The only way you get down to 25 percent or so on questions like this, obviously, is if a significant part of your own party is giving you thumbs down in addition to all of the poor ratings you’re getting from voters in the other party.

...

[Olivia]

Trump's negatives are high.

[Kathianne]

Trump's negatives are high.

They always have been. I pretty much had figured he'd have his 'base support' about 1/3 of 'Republicans' and then there would be those he attracted to his campaign. I pretty much considered those 'solid,' they are the ones that no matter what's been brought out, 'It doesn't matter; 'they' are worse; it's not what's 'important.'

I assumed that there was a core of Bernie supporters that might well go to Trump, when he failed to win the nomination or even before. They are basically nihilistic to begin with.

Not saying it will hold, he may well come roaring back. Since the last debate it seems that some of his 'added voters' have peeled away and he's not picking up those from candidates that have exited.

I'm pretty well shocked, but it gives me a ray of hope. ;)

[DLT]

They always have been. I pretty much had figured he'd have his 'base support' about 1/3 of 'Republicans' and then there would be those he attracted to his campaign. I pretty much considered those 'solid,' they are the ones that no matter what's been brought out, 'It doesn't matter; 'they' are worse; it's not what's 'important.'

I assumed that there was a core of Bernie supporters that might well go to Trump, when he failed to win the nomination or even before. They are basically nihilistic to begin with.

Not saying it will hold, he may well come roaring back. Since the last debate it seems that some of his 'added voters' have peeled away and he's not picking up those from candidates that have exited.

I'm pretty well shocked, but it gives me a ray of hope. ;)

Every time he opens his vulgar piehole, he makes it more and more unlikely that I will be able to hold my nose and vote for him in order to vote against Hillary or Sanders. And I'm not the only one. If you do the math, Trump has NO chance to win the GE. None. Yet still so many people back him. It's bizarre.

[Black Diamond]

My first taste of eating my words caused by this election, very likely won't be the last:

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/03/08/abcwapo-national-poll-trumps-lead-declines-cruz-rubio-and-kasich-all-gain/
Do you think Kasich will drop out after Ohio? How do you think it would go if it were three : Trump Cruz, Kasich

[Kathianne]

Looks like Trump's night.

Wins MS, looking to take MI.

[gabosaurus]

They always have been. I pretty much had figured he'd have his 'base support' about 1/3 of 'Republicans' and then there would be those he attracted to his campaign. I pretty much considered those 'solid,' they are the ones that no matter what's been brought out, 'It doesn't matter; 'they' are worse; it's not what's 'important.'

I assumed that there was a core of Bernie supporters that might well go to Trump, when he failed to win the nomination or even before. They are basically nihilistic to begin with.


I have always thought Trump's support came from two camps. One is a core group of older white conservative males who feel Obama's presidency has legitimized the ascension of minorities in America. They want a return to when white males dictated policy and made all the important decision. The second is those curious about Trump's decidedly non-traditional approach that brought the cut throat business approach to politics.

Sanders supporters are mostly younger voters energized by his pie-in-the-sky dreams that pass for campaign promises. Polls show that the vast majority of them will support Clinton because she is more user-friendly that Trump or Cruz.
While Trump and Cruz are angrily slashing at each others throats and going deep into their opponent's closet of horrors, Clinton has primarily dealt in traditional platitudes. Because that is what has always appealed to mainstream Dems and independents.
This is why the media has often shunted coverage of the Dem debates to the back pages. Compared to the slash and burn Republican shoutfests, Clinton and Sanders might as well be throwing oatmeal at each others.

Remember the age old media axiom: If it bleeds, it leads. And there has been a lot of blood shed in the GOP debates.

[LongTermGuy]

Ahhhh...yes...all the talk...talk...talk...talk......"Negatives are high"...or "ray of hope Trump will Fail" They Huff and they Puff...all the money spent to "Beat Trump".....:laugh:
http://www.ammoland.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Donald-Trump.jpg?896bc4
:cool:
>>People's Choice - Do it anyway you wanna Baby<<



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIFR9b4QB9M

[gabosaurus]

I totally agree. I want The Donald to win the GOP nomination. In the most contentious manner possible. I want him to ride his chariot into Cleveland over the broken and battered bodies of Cruz and Rubio.
I want a repeat of the 1968 Democratic Convention, done Republican style. :fight55:

[tailfins]

Ahhhh...yes...all the talk...talk...talk...talk......"Negatives are high"...or "ray of hope Trump will Fail" They Huff and they Puff...all the money spent to "Beat Trump".....:laugh:

:cool:
>>People's Choice - Do it anyway you wanna Baby<<




The result of a Trump nomination will be to squeeze conservatives out of the Republican party. Skipping CPAC should tell you that Trump is more than willing to give conservatives the middle finger.

[tailfins]

I totally agree. I want The Donald to win the GOP nomination. In the most contentious manner possible. I want him to ride his chariot into Cleveland over the broken and battered bodies of Cruz and Rubio.
I want a repeat of the 1968 Democratic Convention, done Republican style. :fight55:

You're not the only Democrat that wants that.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

The result of a Trump nomination will be to squeeze conservatives out of the Republican party. Skipping CPAC should tell you that Trump is more than willing to give conservatives the middle finger.

You are an idiot, I am about as conservative as they come and I support him fully.
He skipped CPAC because it was one big trap and he was wise enough not to put his foot in it,
el stupido.
Damn, you are retarded, methinks . -Tyr

[LongTermGuy]

You are an idiot, I am about as conservative as they come and I support him fully.
He skipped CPAC because it was one big trap and he was wise enough not to put his foot in it,
el stupido.
Damn, you are retarded, methinks . -Tyr


*Exactly..Trump was smart...busy working elsewhere..

Breath easy my friend... understand...

:laugh:

https://p.gr-assets.com/540x540/fit/hostedimages/1395584398/9016363.gif

[DLT]

You are an idiot, I am about as conservative as they come and I support him fully.
He skipped CPAC because it was one big trap and he was wise enough not to put his foot in it,
el stupido.
Damn, you are retarded, methinks . -Tyr

This is getting ridiculous. So now, if you see Trump as a threat to our nation....you get called nasty names and attacked personally?

Here's a clue. I am convinced that Trump is in it as a spoiler candidate only. And for that I've been insulted, personally attacked for my belief and demeaned by some not-so-nice Trump supporters. Look at it this way. Even if I'm wrong about Trump, the end results are the same. He has successfully fukked up the GOP chances to win in November. Mission Accomplished.

[tailfins]

This is getting ridiculous. So now, if you see Trump as a threat to our nation....you get called nasty names and attacked personally?

Here's a clue. I am convinced that Trump is in it as a spoiler candidate only. And for that I've been insulted, personally attacked for my belief and demeaned by some not-so-nice Trump supporters. Look at it this way. Even if I'm wrong about Trump, the end results are the same. He has successfully fukked up the GOP chances to win in November. Mission Accomplished.

Put on your statistician's hat and just treat it as information regarding what kind people are the T-Rump supporters. I'm not disappointed at T-Rump, per se (or "per say" if this is being read by a T-Rump supporter). What I am disappointed at is how dumbed-down a significant number of GOP voters have become. If T-Rump is beaten, the ground is fertile for another to come along. I see Kim Kardashian or "Snooki" running for office and getting elected.

[DLT]

Put on your statistician's hat and just treat it as information regarding what kind people are the T-Rump supporters. I'm not disappointed at T-Rump, per se (or "per say" if this is being read by a T-Rump supporter). What I am disappointed at is how dumbed-down a significant number of GOP voters have become. If T-Rump is beaten, the ground is fertile for another to come along. I see Kim Kardashian or "Snooki" running for office and getting elected.


And meanwhile....the leftist Democrats are sitting back and observing and saying...."See how easy that was? Let's do it every campaign year from now on!".

And they will. Trump has proven that there's not only a sucker born every minute, but there's plenty of gullible voters that will buy any rhetoric sold if it comes in a pretty package with a few pertinent words on it (build the wall).

[jimnyc]

And meanwhile....the leftist Democrats are sitting back and observing and saying...."See how easy that was? Let's do it every campaign year from now on!".

And they will. Trump has proven that there's not only a sucker born every minute, but there's plenty of gullible voters that will buy any rhetoric sold if it comes in a pretty package with a few pertinent words on it (build the wall).

Didn't you just whine in your last post about attacks? And now everyone who disagrees with you about Trump is a sucker, or somehow less intelligent than you? Sure, hypocrite. And not the first time. I'd point them out but I am on cell in nj. Happy to when I get back though if you deny. :dunno:

[tailfins]

Didn't you just whine in your last post about attacks? And now everyone who disagrees with you about Trump is a sucker, or somehow less intelligent than you? Sure, hypocrite. And not the first time. I'd point them out but I am on cell in nj. Happy to when I get back though if you deny. :dunno:

I listened to Limbaugh yesterday on this very topic. Most T-Rump supporters are fully aware of his shortcomings. Many, including Limbaugh, see T-Rump as a blunt instrument to bust up the left. If one picks up a lead pipe, it doesn't matter if the lead pipe is bent, dirty, otherwise useless. That lead pipe will do just fine if your goal is to bust something up. Limbaugh made the best argument so far, in November to vote for T-Rump if he is the nominee.

The reality TV politics ship has now sailed. I do think some really stupid people support T-Rump in spite of the some that see the rationale made above.

[Jeff]

I listened to Limbaugh yesterday on this very topic. Most T-Rump supporters are fully aware of his shortcomings. Many, including Limbaugh, see T-Rump as a blunt instrument to bust up the left. If one picks up a lead pipe, it doesn't matter if the lead pipe is bent, dirty, otherwise useless. That lead pipe will do just fine if your goal is to bust something up. Limbaugh made the best argument so far, in November to vote for T-Rump if he is the nominee.

The reality TV politics ship has now sailed. I do think some really stupid people support T-Rump in spite of the some that see the rationale made above.

Yea I love this idiotic attack, all Trumps supporters are uneducated :laugh: I have to ask though, didn't he win Florida in a big way ? Hell Florida is filled with Yankees that are retired from big paying jobs, or maybe they closed their businesses down and moved there. Yea all those million dollar mansions down there all owned by uneducated folks. Honestly anyone that has to listen to others to get their defense or believe they are so much smarter than anyone else are the real uneducated.

I think it was Gunny who posted about idiots that would actually call another uneducated, see some folks are book smart, but then lack else where, some can tear a engine down and rebuild it in a day but have never been to college. It's real simple, if you have to keep saying how uneducated some are than you are trying to prove that you are smart, and if you have to try and prove it, well lets just say it isn't going to happen. Kind of like the kid at school that keeps telling everyone how tough he is, hell chances are he couldn't fight his way out of a wet paper bag, again if you have to keep repeating it, you are trying to prove it to yourself.

[tailfins]

Yea I love this idiotic attack, all Trumps supporters are uneducated :laugh: I have to ask though, didn't he win Florida in a big way ? Hell Florida is filled with Yankees that are retired from big paying jobs, or maybe they closed their businesses down and moved there. Yea all those million dollar mansions down there all owned by uneducated folks. Honestly anyone that has to listen to others to get their defense or believe they are so much smarter than anyone else are the real uneducated.

I think it was Gunny who posted about idiots that would actually call another uneducated, see some folks are book smart, but then lack else where, some can tear a engine down and rebuild it in a day but have never been to college. It's real simple, if you have to keep saying how uneducated some are than you are trying to prove that you are smart, and if you have to try and prove it, well lets just say it isn't going to happen. Kind of like the kid at school that keeps telling everyone how tough he is, hell chances are he couldn't fight his way out of a wet paper bag, again if you have to keep repeating it, you are trying to prove it to yourself.

Actually it's more like spotting a counterfeit coin when one is almost a professional coin collector like myself. Most stupid people, just like most counterfeit coins jump right off the page and are obvious. There are dead give-aways.

[DLT]

Didn't you just whine in your last post about attacks? And now everyone who disagrees with you about Trump is a sucker, or somehow less intelligent than you? Sure, hypocrite. And not the first time. I'd point them out but I am on cell in nj. Happy to when I get back though if you deny. :dunno:

Wow. So you're 'all in' for Trump.

Duly noted. It seems to be an epidemic.

What are you going to do if/when it turns out that we were right and you were wrong? What can you do then? Maybe you're counting on all of us anti-Trump folks being 'gone' by then, eh? Conveniently so.

[DLT]

Actually it's more like spotting a counterfeit coin when one is almost a professional coin collector like myself. Most stupid people, just like most counterfeit coins jump right off the page and are obvious. There are dead give-aways.

Equating lack of education with gullibility is a false equivalency. Many highly educated folks are also highly indoctrinated to the leftist views. Which is why so many of them (whites) voted for Obama in 2008. Well, that and white guilt (also born from indoctrination).

No, being gullible and naïve enough to fall for the load of crap/manure DrumpF is selling is quite another thing.

[Gunny]

Actually it's more like spotting a counterfeit coin when one is almost a professional coin collector like myself. Most stupid people, just like most counterfeit coins jump right off the page and are obvious. There are dead give-aways.

You asked in one thread somewhere why people get pissed at you. I think calling them stupid will probably do it. Everyone here knows I've argued against Trump, but I have at least gone to some degree of lengths to explain that the people who support him aren't stupid and I have never implied such. I get called rude, an ass, blunt and everything else. Used to get marked down on my fitness reports in tact and cooperation. But YOU take the cake.

This running gun battle between Trump supporters and Trump haters has gotten REALLY old. Especially for people like me who are just taking it as it comes. There are people not even posting because of it.

You might be a good coin collector but you don't know jack sh*t about people. There are people invested in their politics and take any criticism as a personal slight. Kinda like YOU. You have to know who they are and tread lightly or they're going to come after you.

So this one's for you: Trump is an inevitable result. Of YOUR party. When was the last time the GOP was in control of its candidates? When was the last time they groomed a candidate? I think it was Reagan. When was the last time they didn't have 1200 debates where GOP candidates didn't destroy each other while the left just sat back, watched and laughed? Who was the last Republican to actually deliver what he promised? I think that was Reagan too.

So blame yourself instead of everyone else because you are part and parcel to the package here. The GOP thinks it can just glide along on empty promises and has done so since the 90s. GWB had Congress and the Supreme Court and what did he actually do? Get us into a strategically inept war. The GOP got Congress away from the left in the mid-90s with their "Contract with America" and what did they do? Nothing. Then they go and allow the MSM to choose McLame as the GOP candidate in 08. Sure. Let's pick the guy that made his name defying the party he is running for.

So quit your bitchin'. You are getting what you deserve because of YOUR choices. I don't like Trump and never will. But I WILL vote against the Dems. Hillary's a chronic liar and Sanders is a commie. Y'all "taking your stand" has given us 8 years of the most unconstitutional coward in chief since Lincoln. And at least Lincoln would fight a war to win.

[namvet]

Equating lack of education with gullibility is a false equivalency. Many highly educated folks are also highly indoctrinated to the leftist views. Which is why so many of them (whites) voted for Obama in 2008. Well, that and white guilt (also born from indoctrination).

No, being gullible and naïve enough to fall for the load of crap/manure DrumpF is selling is quite another thing.


Many highly educated folks are also highly indoctrinated to the leftist views

http://i67.tinypic.com/1z66ut1.jpg

he was a failed experiment even the left knows it. voted solely on his skin color, intelligence optional. now its get a fresh start with Clinton who has the FBI trailing her with handcuffs. her whore mongering husband is a true liability. BTY what do Muslim's think of women??

[jimnyc]

Wow. So you're 'all in' for Trump.

Not sure what "all in" means, nor what it has to do with the hypocrisy, but if you are asking if I support Donald Trump, the answer is yes.


Duly noted. It seems to be an epidemic.

What, those who feel the need to attack others who disagree with them? Because you've done that. Alternatively, feel free to point out where I EVER may have done so for anyone you support. Just showing a point... especially when you point the fingers at others first, and then do the same instantly afterwards.


What are you going to do if/when it turns out that we were right and you were wrong? What can you do then? Maybe you're counting on all of us anti-Trump folks being 'gone' by then, eh? Conveniently so.

What is convenient? What do you think it is I'm going to do? I'm voting for who I like, end of story. Counting on you? WTF? I'm not counting on you for a damn thing, nor anyone else. I have ZERO issue with anyone who hates/dislikes or won't vote for Trump. I'm not making enemies of folks on the right just because we disagree on a candidate - unlike some others like yourself. Keep your negativity and finger pointing to yourself, I'm doing just fine in supporting who I like, and not bugging a damn person who disagrees. Yeah, I see that epidemic, and it's been growing more and more as Trump has been kicking ass, and some feel they need to go after more than the candidate in order to make a point. Odd that.

[gabosaurus]

Say what you want about Trump, but he does have some fervent supporters.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qg0pO9VG1J8