Florida: What's What

[Kathianne]

I was talking about those 'banked votes' from absentee/early voting ballots in the Sunshine State. Here's an interesting discussion on what it might mean. At the end, a different ending may be in store:

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/03/07/monmouth-poll-of-florida-trump-leads-rubio-by-eight-but-rubio-leads-trump-in-early-vote-by-25/


Monmouth poll of Florida: Trump leads Rubio by eight — but Rubio leads Trump in early voteby 25

POSTED AT 3:01 PM ON MARCH 7, 2016 BY ALLAHPUNDIT


Rarely will you hear a poll called “good news” for a candidate when it has him down eight in his home state (http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/c6781dce-1a50-4f9e-bdf3-69388f5a110f.pdf), but this really is the most encouraging news Rubio’s had in ages. And the best news anti-Trumpers have had since, well, Saturday afternoon.

Rubio 48, Trump 23 in the early vote? Gadzooks.


Trump has support from 38% of likely primary voters compared to 30% who back Marco Rubio. Ted Cruz earns 17% support and John Kasich has 10%. Rubio actually leads Trump by 48% to 23% among the nearly 1-in-5 voters who have already cast their ballots in this “early vote” state. Trump has a 42% to 26% lead among those who have yet to vote.

Rubio leads Trump 41% to 30% in the southern part of the state. Trump has a significant 44% to 22% advantage in Florida’s central region. The race is closer in the northern tier of the state, with Trump at 36% and Rubio at 32%. Nearly one-fifth of the likely electorate is non-white, mostly Cuban or other Hispanic. This group appears to prefer Rubio over Trump, but the sample size is too small to report exact percentages…

With all the discussion about hands in this election, Monmouth decided to test how Rubio and Cruz would do mano a mano against Trump. Trump (47%) and Rubio (45%) are basically tied in this hypothetical two person race. Trump (48%) would potentially have a decided edge over Cruz (40%) in a head to head vote in Florida.


Even for an election where the conventional wisdom is getting smashed daily, those numbers are way, way off from what most people expect. It’s Trump who’s supposed to be cleaning up in the early vote, not Rubio. Trump’s the one who’s been leading in the polls there for months and Trump’s the one with the most enthusiastic voters. If anyone’s banking votes early, you’d expect it to be him. In Louisiana on Friday night, he jumped out to a huge lead in the first returns thanks to his strength in the early vote — only to barely hold on as Ted Cruz performed very strongly among people who voted on election day. If Rubio’s crushing Trump in the early vote, it means, I guess, that his turnout operation there is much better than everyone expects.
...

[Perianne]

Rubio certainly should win his home state. I am happy for him.

[Kathianne]

Rubio certainly should win his home state. I am happy for him.

Umm, did you read it? :coffee:

[Perianne]

Umm, did you read it? :coffee:

I did not follow the link. I read what you posted.

To be honest, everything else I have read has Rubio losing. I read today that some of his advisers are saying he should drop out to protect his future political career.

In case you haven't noticed, I am trying to be nice lately about Rubio.

[Kathianne]

I did not follow the link. I read what you posted.

To be honest, everything else I have read has Rubio losing. I read today that some of his advisers are saying he should drop out to protect his future political career.

In case you haven't noticed, I am trying to be nice lately about Rubio.

Hadn't really noticed about 'trying to be nice,' but you don't have to.

Rubio and Trump had many banked votes, Rubio a surprising amount, perhaps more than enough to overcome the 8% Monmouth is seeing for Trump. A caution though, if turnout is greater than expected and many break for Cruz, questions on the outcome arise. Rubio may be out, which is what Cruz wants, but Trump will probably pick up all those delegates.

[Kathianne]

Hadn't really noticed about 'trying to be nice,' but you don't have to.

Rubio and Trump had many banked votes, Rubio a surprising amount, perhaps more than enough to overcome the 8% Monmouth is seeing for Trump. A caution though, if turnout is greater than expected and many break for Cruz, questions on the outcome arise. Rubio may be out, which is what Cruz wants, but Trump will probably pick up all those delegates.

Whoops, also a chance that Rubio supporters may switch to Cruz, depending on the numbers and IF it were to happen, the whole outcome could change.

[Black Diamond]

I did not follow the link. I read what you posted.

To be honest, everything else I have read has Rubio losing. I read today that some of his advisers are saying he should drop out to protect his future political career.

In case you haven't noticed, I am trying to be nice lately about Rubio.

If you don't like Rubio, there's no reason to be nice to him. This ain't an etiquette board.

[Black Diamond]

Whoops, also a chance that Rubio supporters may switch to Cruz, depending on the numbers and IF it were to happen, the whole outcome could change.
Cruz I can handle.. Rubio no.

[Perianne]

If you don't like Rubio, there's no reason to be nice to him. This ain't an etiquette board.

Folks get upset if you say too much about Rubio. I am not here to ruffle feathers.

[Black Diamond]

Folks get upset if you say too much about Rubio. I am not here to ruffle feathers.

Mr roboto?

[Perianne]

Mr roboto?

Mr. Roboto. Mr. Foam party. Mr. Philanderer. Mr. Hypocrite. Little Marco. Whatever fits.

[Black Diamond]

Mr. Roboto. Mr. Foam party. Mr. Philanderer. Mr. Hypocrite. Little Marco. Whatever fits.

And he's interested in how big Donald's piece is.

[Perianne]

And he's interested in how big Donald's piece is.

I think it relates back to the foam parties. They apparently do stuff like that there.

And if I recall correctly, he did refer to the Donald as "Big Donald".

[Black Diamond]

I was talking about those 'banked votes' from absentee/early voting ballots in the Sunshine State. Here's an interesting discussion on what it might mean. At the end, a different ending may be in store:

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/03/07/monmouth-poll-of-florida-trump-leads-rubio-by-eight-but-rubio-leads-trump-in-early-vote-by-25/
So is this all good news for Rubio, Cruz, or Willard?

[jimnyc]

Trump Crushing GOP Field – Beating Hillary Clinton in New Florida Poll

Leading Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has a commanding lead over his GOP rivals in a new Florida Decides poll by Central Florida cable outlets News 13 and News 9. Both channels are owned by Brighthouse.

Trump has 42% support of who those are likely to or have already voted early in person or by absentee ballot for the Sunshine state’s March 15 presidential primary.

Florida native Marco Rubio trails with 22% followed by Ted Cruz with 17%, John Kascih with 10%, and ‘other’ at 3%.

A further indicator of trouble for Rubio in the poll is the ‘undecided’ vote is only 5%.

Trump is also the only candidate of the top three Republicans to beat leading Democratic Party presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, 45% to 44%. However, all three head-to-head results were within the poll’s 2.3% margin of error.

The survey of Florida likely and actual Republican presidential primary voters had 937 participants with a margin of error of 3.3% and was conducted by SurveyUSA from March 4 though March 6.

Clinton is routing Bernie Sanders in the Democratic presidential primary in Florida according to the poll, 61% to 30%.

Trump’s lead among GOP voters is commanding across all demographic groups in the poll. He has between 40% and 44% support among men and women and all age groups.

Trump also dominates across the board in education and income groups: High school 52%, some college 41%, 4 year college 41%; less than $40K 48%, $40K to $80K 44% and over $80K 39%.

A Monmouth University poll released Monday showed Trump with only an eight point lead over Rubio, however that poll was taken of 403 likely voters and had a margin of error of 4.9%

The Monmouth poll broke down results between those who have already voted and those yet to vote. Among early/absentee voters, Rubio leads Trump 48% to 23%.

Trump leads Rubio among those yet to vote 42% to 26%. That tracks with the larger Florida Decides poll which did not break down results among those who already voted and those yet to vote.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/03/trump-crushing-gop-field-in-new-florida-poll/

[Olivia]

I love Marco Rubio. In my mind it's anybody but Trump. If Trump gets that nomination I won't bother to vote. He is that distasteful.

[Kathianne]

I love Marco Rubio. In my mind it's anybody but Trump. If Trump gets that nomination I won't bother to vote. He is that distasteful.


There aren't other officials you want to vote for? Most important issues that effect us day-to-day are not made by those in DC.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

I was talking about those 'banked votes' from absentee/early voting ballots in the Sunshine State. Here's an interesting discussion on what it might mean. At the end, a different ending may be in store:

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/03/07/monmouth-poll-of-florida-trump-leads-rubio-by-eight-but-rubio-leads-trump-in-early-vote-by-25/
Lots of stinking worthless ffing libs move to Florida to retire and most vote..
I hope Trump snatches this one too. Older population that actually learned how to use their brains , taught by education back then , should vote for him over the Establishment'S new puppet Rubio IMHO.-Tyr

[Kathianne]

Lots of stinking worthless ffing libs move to Florida to retire and most vote..
I hope Trump snatches this one too. Older population that actually learned how to use their brains , taught by education back then , should vote for him over the Establishment'S new puppet Rubio IMHO.-Tyr

Geewillikers, I thought you were for Rubio. You hid the emotional so well. :beer:

[Perianne]

Rubio sweats too much. It causes him to drink water alllllll the time. :)

http://www.debatepolicy.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=8565&stc=1

[Perianne]

Rubio sweats too much. It causes him to drink water alllllll the time. :)

http://www.debatepolicy.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=8565&stc=1


Stupid GIF won't work. It was amusing.

[Olivia]

It's hot down here in Florida, drink or die!

[Kathianne]

It's hot down here in Florida, drink or die!

Arizona too! Can't say I love regular water-plain or bottled-but have become a great drinker of Vitamin Water 0.

[Olivia]

Arizona too! Can't say I love regular water-plain or bottled-but have become a great drinker of Vitamin Water 0.


Oh! You live in Arizona? I love that place, was there in Nov. and Dec. I love the desert.

[Kathianne]

Oh! You live in Arizona? I love that place, was there in Nov. and Dec. I love the desert.
Originally from Chicago area, moved to Sedona a year and half ago. Now live in Cottonwood and work in Sedona. I miss my peeps, especially kids and grandkids, I miss the Chicago cultural scene and Lake Michigan and yes, LSD, :laugh2:, do not miss the weather or cost of living!

[jimnyc]

Rubio sweats too much. It causes him to drink water alllllll the time. :)

Maybe that's what made him 'little marco' :laugh:

http://i.imgur.com/h9FEVso.jpg