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Kathianne
03-07-2016, 08:14 AM
I'd pretty much convinced myself that this election was a 'done deal.' We'd have Trump for the win, if he were able to gather enough Trump democrats or Hillary was indicted or it became clear she should be. Otherwise, we'd have Hillary. Lose/lose.

Now? A glimmer of hope.

Super Saturday results were a bit of good news after months of gloom. Trump didn't 'sweep', not even close. Where Cruz won he dominated; where Trump won, Cruz was close. Cruz 'over performed.'

Thinking about that, much of Trump's support came from the banked early voting-those that didn't watch or hear about the debate before voting.

On the debate thread that night, a few of us discussed the 'troops will follow.' That night Trump doubled down on his earlier statement of 'waterboarding and beyond,' then doubled down again. The next day he said, 'I understand I cannot issue illegal order to the troops. I will get the military leaders advice.' Yesterday he said at a rally that 'basically I will get the laws changed, we must be able to do worse than the terrorists.'

Ok then.

Then there were the issues that have to do with the university, his 'flexible positions' on immigration and visas...

There was more, but really the sticking points that the electorate will ponder never come down to more than a couple. Your couple may be different than your neighbors, but for all of us they are limited.

Came across this, found it relevant. I like Rubio, but the debate showed why Cruz has a better chance in the main: https://pjmedia.com/rogerkimball/2016/03/06/sort-of-super-saturday/2/


...

The disaffected masses who have been impressed by what they think Donald Trump represents should give Ted Cruz another look. He is the real insurgent candidate in this race, the one who will bring us back from the disaster of crony capitalism, executive overreach, and rule by an alphabet soup of unaccountable regulatory agencies. Like Reagan, he understands that America's goal on the international stage must be "peace through strength," that weakness is dangerously provocative, and that Roman historian Vegetius was right: si vis pacem, para vellum -- "if you want peace, prepare for war."


Representatives of what Cruz calls the "Washington Cartel" assure us that he is unelectable because--why? Because people like them do not like Ted Cruz. They are right to dislike him. Were he elected, the gravy train that is the D.C. Limited would screech to an abrupt halt and we'd replace business-as-usual with business in Washington, D.C. We'd also return enormous quotas of political prerogatives to the states and to local governments. That's what the Founders envisioned. Yes, it's late, alright. But I take some solace from Lord D'Abernon: "An Englishman's mind works best when it is almost too late." An American's too, I trust.

Perianne
03-07-2016, 08:52 AM
Not to repeat myself....

I sense a weakness in the Trump stampede.

Olivia
03-07-2016, 08:55 AM
I am not a Trump fan at all. I don't believe him, nor trust anything he says. I think both Rubio and Cruz are going to light up his lies. I have never believed his promise to deport the illegals, what he says was he would deport them then expedite their return. Trump is a democrat spoiler posing as a Republican and if he somehow wins the nomination I will not vote. I could live with either Rubio or Cruz. I think it will be Cruz.

jimnyc
03-07-2016, 09:02 AM
You guys better hope the polls are wrong in the big upcoming primaries. Of course they have been wrong in 2 contests thus far though! Starting tomorrow in Michigan:

Polling Data
<tbody>
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
Trump

Cruz

Kasich

Rubio

Spread


RCP Average
3/1 - 3/6
--
--
39.0
20.0
19.8
13.4
Trump +19.0


FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mitchell_Poll_FOX_2_GOP_Primary_3-6-16.pdf)
3/6 - 3/6
663 LV
3.8
42
19
20
9
Trump +22


CBS News/YouGov (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-lead-in-michigan/)
3/2 - 3/4
638 LV
5.9
39
24
15
16
Trump +15


NBC/WSJ/Marist (http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-hold-big-leads-michigan-poll-n532576)
3/1 - 3/3
482 LV
4.5
41
22
13
17
Trump +19


ARG (http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/rep/mirep.html)
3/4 - 3/5
400 LV
5.0
31
15
33
11
Kasich +2


Trafalgar Group (R) (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitVk1YRTVOVnVTTFk/view)
3/2 - 3/3
1643 LV
2.4
42
20
18
14
Trump +22

</tbody>

And then Mississippi:


<tbody>
Mississippi Republican Presidential Primary (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ms/mississippi_republican_presidential_primary-4210.html)
Magellan Strategies (R) (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Magellan_MS_GOP_2016.pdf)
Trump 41, Cruz 17, Rubio 16, Kasich 8, Carson 5 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ms/mississippi_republican_presidential_primary-4210.html)
Trump +24

</tbody>

And then Florida:

Polling Data
<tbody>
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
Trump

Rubio

Cruz

Kasich

Carson

Spread


RCP Average
2/21 - 2/25
--
--
44.7
26.0
12.3
8.3
4.7
Trump +18.7


PPP (D) (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_22516.pdf)
2/24 - 2/25
464 LV
4.6
45
25
10
8
5
Trump +20


Gravis (http://www.oann.com/pollflorida/)
2/24 - 2/24
751 LV
3.6
45
25
15
10
5
Trump +20


Quinnipiac (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/fl/fl02252016_FmH23kg.pdf)
2/21 - 2/24
705 LV
3.7
44
28
12
7
4
Trump +16

</tbody>

And then Illinois:

Polling Data
<tbody>
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
Trump

Rubio

Cruz

Kasich

Carson

Spread


RCP Average
2/15 - 2/24
--
--
33.0
17.5
15.5
11.0
--
Trump +15.5


WeAskAmerica (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/IL_GOP_Feb_2016.pdf)
2/24 - 2/24
1311 LV
3.0
38
21
16
9
--
Trump +17


The Simon Poll/SIU (http://paulsimoninstitute.siu.edu/_common/documents/psppi-simon-poll-spring-2016-illinois-presidential-primary.pdf)
2/15 - 2/20
306 RV
5.6
28
14
15
13
6
Trump +13

</tbody>

And then Missouri:

Polling Data
<tbody>
Poll
Date
Trump

Bush

Carson

Huckabee

Cruz

Walker

Fiorina

Rubio

Paul

Kasich

Christie

Perry

Santorum

Jindal

Graham

Spread


PPP (D) (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_MO_81215.pdf)
8/7 - 8/9
23
11
11
10
9
8
7
6
4
4
1
1
1
1
0
Trump +12

</tbody>

Kathianne
03-07-2016, 09:03 AM
I can understand why Rubio feels he must go onto FL. He will do well, but if Cruz does what I expect, Trump will win and perhaps Rubio will get second. Both Trump and Rubio have a lot of absentee votes already in their columns. Cruz may well pick up the late deciders, even Rubio leaners that recognize the only way to stop Trump is Cruz.

Everyone, Trump supporters, media, anti-Trump folks have credited him for the high turnouts of the GOP contests. Certainly true, but those turnouts may be motivated as much by those against him as for him.

LongTermGuy
03-07-2016, 09:20 AM
Not to repeat myself....

I sense a weakness in the Trump stampede.



:cool:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zNdw4DaUM8