3/5 Primaries

[jimnyc]

I am currently looking for polls for Maine, as for whatever reason I can't find the averages on Realclearpolitics who generally gather all of the polls and average them out.

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Kansas:

Kansas Republican Presidential Caucus Trafalgar Group (R) Trump 35, Cruz 29, Rubio 17, Kasich 13, Carson Trump +6
Kansas Republican Presidential Caucus Fort Hays St. University Trump 26, Cruz 14, Rubio 13, Kasich 3, Carson 3 Trump +12


Kentucky:
Kentucky Republican Presidential Caucus Western Kentucky Univ. Trump 35, Rubio 22, Carson 7, Cruz 15, Kasich 6 Trump +13


Louisiana:
Louisiana Republican Presidential Primary University of New Orleans Trump 38, Cruz 26, Rubio 11, Kasich 5 Trump +12
Louisiana Republican Presidential Primary Gravis Trump 48, Cruz 31, Rubio 15, Kasich 6 Trump +17
Louisiana Republican Presidential Primary Trafalgar Group (R) Trump 44, Cruz 26, Rubio 15, Kasich 5 Trump +18
Louisiana Republican Presidential Primary Magellan Strategies (R) Trump 41, Cruz 21, Rubio 15, Kasich 9 Trump +20

[jimnyc]

I found myself on the following page looking for polls for today's primaries. I thought this was interesting as well, which is a running 15 day average, from various polls. It says February 10th to March 28th, but its supposed to be February 28th. I only put the photo instead of the copy/paste as no matter what I try it comes up all screwy looking. The link is there...

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http://i.imgur.com/7x6G8nj.jpg

http://2016.election-polls.org/President/Republican-Primary/

[NightTrain]

I don't know how accurate it is, but these guys have Trump at 40% followed by Rubio at 20%.

https://www.isidewith.com/2016-republican-primary-poll/801555698/9333319

[jimnyc]

I don't know how accurate it is, but these guys have Trump at 40% followed by Rubio at 20%.

https://www.isidewith.com/2016-republican-primary-poll/801555698/9333319

I honestly haven't followed ANY of these 4 states as I've been too busy this week. I kept an eye on Michigan and that's about it, don't ask me why.

Kath, Rick - what's your guys take on today's primaries? Can we get Cruz to take a few states? Quite frankly, I would want him MUCH more than Rubio, if I had a choice.

[Kathianne]

I honestly haven't followed ANY of these 4 states as I've been too busy this week. I kept an eye on Michigan and that's about it, don't ask me why.

Kath, Rick - what's your guys take on today's primaries? Can we get Cruz to take a few states? Quite frankly, I would want him MUCH more than Rubio, if I had a choice.

Jim, I've been honest about all of this over the months, I currently think he will not be stopped, if that gives you comfort. It seems there is nothing that stops what is going on. Sooo, I suspect the votes will reflect the polls. To beat this to death, I hope I'm wrong. ;)

[jimnyc]

Jim, I've been honest about all of this over the months, I currently think he will not be stopped, if that gives you comfort. It seems there is nothing that stops what is going on. Sooo, I suspect the votes will reflect the polls. To beat this to death, I hope I'm wrong. ;)

I'd be just as comfy if Cruz won all 4 states, I like him a lot, just not as much is all. I believe the polls had Trump with a 5% lead going into Iowa and that didn't pan out.

[NightTrain]

IMO, the only thing that can derail Trump's roll now would be for Rubio to drop and 100% of his base defecting to Cruz, or vice versa. And that's not going to happen.

There could be the nuclear option of playing dirty at the Convention, but that's going to burn down the GOP house. Trump would go Independent and take a very large chunk of voters with him.

[Kathianne]

I'd be just as comfy if Cruz won all 4 states, I like him a lot, just not as much is all. I believe the polls had Trump with a 5% lead going into Iowa and that didn't pan out.

There's no doubt that there are those breaking away at the last minute-Rubio has been taking them for the most part. It's acknowledge he is nearly everyone's second choice-thus considered the most likely to 'unify.'

Also figure in the 'confidence level' of any poll. While most are 3% or so, some are much higher.

[jimnyc]

IMO, the only thing that can derail Trump's roll now would be for Rubio to drop and 100% of his base defecting to Cruz, or vice versa. And that's not going to happen.

There could be the nuclear option of playing dirty at the Convention, but that's going to burn down the GOP house. Trump would go Independent and take a very large chunk of voters with him.


There's no doubt that there are those breaking away at the last minute-Rubio has been taking them for the most part. It's acknowledge he is nearly everyone's second choice-thus considered the most likely to 'unify.'

Also figure in the 'confidence level' of any poll. While most are 3% or so, some are much higher.

I think NT nailed it, and kinda what I've been saying for awhile. The elites, the base, the establishment - if so angry, they should be working with Rubio/Cruz to try and unify them, to get one to drop in the best interest of the part. They KNOW that them divided is helping Trump. So either they talk them into it, or the individuals make such a decision. But I think short of Rubio dropping, it's going to be very difficult. But if they KNOW this, it's like a car wreck for them, as they are complaining and wishing, but all sitting back and not doing much from their side.

[Kathianne]

I think NT nailed it, and kinda what I've been saying for awhile. The elites, the base, the establishment - if so angry, they should be working with Rubio/Cruz to try and unify them, to get one to drop in the best interest of the part. They KNOW that them divided is helping Trump. So either they talk them into it, or the individuals make such a decision. But I think short of Rubio dropping, it's going to be very difficult. But if they KNOW this, it's like a car wreck for them, as they are complaining and wishing, but all sitting back and not doing much from their side.


A contested election-if none have a majority is within the rules. I don't know how that would turn out, I do think Trump's people would be furious if another named. Bush 2000 election and Dems are still furious. It's always been in the rules.

A brokered convention placing Romney or another candidate in? Also within the rules but would kill GOP on the spot, all would walk.

[jimnyc]

A brokered convention would be funny. Everyone is bitching and whining and upset - but would likely and happily give the election to Hillary. Makes no sense to me, but to each their own. At least Cruz is smarter and pointed out that this would be a huge mistake.

If folks truly think Hillary is a better option, they should just simply vote for her and ensure that Trump doesn't take office.

[Gunny]

A brokered convention would be funny. Everyone is bitching and whining and upset - but would likely and happily give the election to Hillary. Makes no sense to me, but to each their own. At least Cruz is smarter and pointed out that this would be a huge mistake.

If folks truly think Hillary is a better option, they should just simply vote for her and ensure that Trump doesn't take office.

You would be incorrect. Jimbob. We don't want Hillary. We want someone that can lay the smacketh down on her ass. And it'll take a front end loader to plant that fat ass. I don't want a maybe. I want a Nixon over McGovern 49 out of 50 states win.

No I don't like his sorry ass. Beats the alternative. You think those of us that criticize Trump are the enemy, and we aren't. I wanted a better candidate. I wanted someone that was actually Constitutional. You know that law we all served for?

The sad thing is he's not a sure win. Not if he can't buy it with cash. We can't stand as a nation another 4-8 years of retardville. You think I'm against your boy, but what I'm against is losing everything we've fought 250 years to have. Like it or not, Trump doesn't represent that.

[jimnyc]

You would be incorrect. Jimbob. We don't want Hillary. We want someone that can lay the smacketh down on her ass. And it'll take a front end loader to plant that fat ass. I don't want a maybe. I want a Nixon over McGovern 49 out of 50 states win.

No I don't like his sorry ass. Beats the alternative. You think those of us that criticize Trump are the enemy, and we aren't. I wanted a better candidate. I wanted someone that was actually Constitutional. You know that law we all served for?

The sad thing is he's not a sure win. Not if he can't buy it with cash. We can't stand as a nation another 4-8 years of retardville. You think I'm against your boy, but what I'm against is losing everything we've fought 250 years to have. Like it or not, Trump doesn't represent that.

Did you read what you quoted? Your reply didn't have much to do with a brokered convention and handing Hillary the election. My post had very little to do with Trump, really nothing at all. It would apply 100% identically if Cruz was leading, or Rubio.

[Jeff]

You would be incorrect. Jimbob. We don't want Hillary. We want someone that can lay the smacketh down on her ass. And it'll take a front end loader to plant that fat ass. I don't want a maybe. I want a Nixon over McGovern 49 out of 50 states win.

No I don't like his sorry ass. Beats the alternative. You think those of us that criticize Trump are the enemy, and we aren't. I wanted a better candidate. I wanted someone that was actually Constitutional. You know that law we all served for?

The sad thing is he's not a sure win. Not if he can't buy it with cash. We can't stand as a nation another 4-8 years of retardville. You think I'm against your boy, but what I'm against is losing everything we've fought 250 years to have. Like it or not, Trump doesn't represent that.

Bro this is a question more so than a statement, but don't you think when Trump and Hillary get into debates and Trump rips her a new one ( something Republicans seem scared to do for years now ) he is going to gain more and more, I see Trump nailing her coffin shut, he will be relentless with all the back handed illegal BS she has been involved in since she got out of college. I really believe he will get more and more behind him once these debates start ???

[LongTermGuy]

Bro this is a question more so than a statement, but don't you think when Trump and Hillary get into debates and Trump rips her a new one ( something Republicans seem scared to do for years now ) he is going to gain more and more, I see Trump nailing her coffin shut, he will be relentless with all the back handed illegal BS she has been involved in since she got out of college. I really believe he will get more and more behind him once these debates start ???
http://images.sodahead.com/polls/003958297/2228658930_image_answer_1_xlarge.png