Split, Schism, Realignment Call It What You Will

[Kathianne]

Once in awhile my gut feelings with politics play out, oftentimes has made me uncomfortable. This election cycle certainly is one of them.

Seems there is a definite change coming, not Democrats where pretty much anyone who's followed politics for decades would expect it, but on the right where principles were considered quite the bedrock of holding together a unified minority of the electorate.

We've all watched the differences here amongst those that have considered themselves conservatives, yet within that group it seems there were underlying differences that are real and unlikely to be reconciled. Some has to do with issues, others with the ideology of what government and governing should be about.

How it will wash out is anyone's guess, mine is that it will take at least 2 'conservative' parties.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-assume-conservatives-will-rally-behind-trump/


Don’t Assume Conservatives Will Rally Behind TrumpBy NATE SILVER (http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nate-silver/)


If Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination, he’ll have undermined a lot of assumptions we once held about the GOP. He’ll have become the nominee despite neither being reliably conservative (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sorry-bloomberg-trump-is-already-a-third-party-candidate/) nor being very electable (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/), supposedly the two things Republicans care most about (http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/340585/re-buckley-rule-avik-roy). He’ll have done it with very little support from “party elites” (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/) (although with some recent exceptions like Chris Christie (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/christies-endorsement-of-trump-totally-makes-sense/)). He’ll have attacked the Republican Party’s three previous candidates — Mitt Romney (http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/02/donald-trump-mocks-marco-rubio-mitt-romney-219871), John McCain (http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2015/07/18/donald-trump-john-mccain-war-hero/) and George W. Bush (http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/02/15/donald-trump-jeb-bush-george-w-bush-911-attacks.cnn) — without many consequences. If a Trump nomination happens, it will imply that the Republican Party has been weakened and is perhaps evenon the brink of failure (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-party.html?_r=0), unable to coordinate on a plan (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-party.html?_r=0) to stop Trump despite the existential threat he poses to it.


Major partisan realignments do happen in America — on average about once every 40 years (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_parties_in_the_United_States). The last one, which involved the unwinding of the New Deal coalition between Northern and Southern Democrats, is variously dated as having occurred in 1968, 1972 and 1980. There are also a lot of false alarms (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/07/02/there_are_no_permanent_majorities_in_america_97110 .html), elections described as realignments that turn out not to be. This time, we really might be in the midst of one. It’s almost impossible to reconcile this year’s Republican nomination contest with anyone’s notion of “politics as usual.”


If a realignment is underway, then it poses a big empirical challenge. Presidential elections already suffer from the problem of small sample sizes — one reason a lot of people, certainly including us (http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/why-donald-trump-isnt-a-real-candidate-in-one-chart/), shouldn’t have been so dismissive of Trump’s chances early on. Elections held in the midst of political realignments are even rarer, however. The rules of the old regime — the American political party system circa 1980 through 2012 — might not apply in the new one. And yet, it’s those elections that inform both the conventional wisdom and statistical models of American political behavior.

...

[jimnyc]

I think Americans in general are pissed off, even a fair amount on the left. There are a LOT complaining about the job that has been done in the past 8 years. Read the other article about Massachusetts were many are leaving the Dem party. I think things are fractured a bit on both sides, because of anger, and because the lack of good candidates that have went to Washington and actually get things done, and do what they promised.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

Once in awhile my gut feelings with politics play out, oftentimes has made me uncomfortable. This election cycle certainly is one of them.

Seems there is a definite change coming, not Democrats where pretty much anyone who's followed politics for decades would expect it, but on the right where principles were considered quite the bedrock of holding together a unified minority of the electorate.

We've all watched the differences here amongst those that have considered themselves conservatives, yet within that group it seems there were underlying differences that are real and unlikely to be reconciled. Some has to do with issues, others with the ideology of what government and governing should be about.

How it will wash out is anyone's guess, mine is that it will take at least 2 'conservative' parties.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-assume-conservatives-will-rally-behind-trump/

ANOTHER HIT PIECE ON OUR TOP RUNNER, DOES NOT SURPRISE ME AND THE GIBBERISH HE PUTS FORTH IS JUST THAT..
WHAT THAT MORON DOES NOT SEE COULD FILL A FOOTBALL STADIUM.
The conservatives have never been a solidly lockstep walking group as we are the true thinkers not the stinking dems!
And we that are not afraid to fight back(even when ridiculed by our own) are now doing so with Trump.
Schools , media, dems, Government have all unified to enforce PC bullshit and their brand of insanity, forcing it down our collective throats and by God we've had enough!
I hope Trump destroys them all............................................... .................................................. ......

As they are nothing more than damn maggots....

Dude that wrote that is either a damn fool or a lying coward, possibly both IMHO!--Tyr

edit- That majority racing to be behind Trump are not the morons that others claim that they are, its people not only wanting change but willing to fight back themselves instead of sitting silently and letting another ffing dem or rhino Republican continue this deliberate nation destroying at the behest of the globalists.

[Kathianne]

I think Americans in general are pissed off, even a fair amount on the left. There are a LOT complaining about the job that has been done in the past 8 years. Read the other article about Massachusetts were many are leaving the Dem party. I think things are fractured a bit on both sides, because of anger, and because the lack of good candidates that have went to Washington and actually get things done, and do what they promised.

I did. There is much overlapping between that article and what I wrote.

[Kathianne]

ANOTHER HIT PIECE ON OUR TOP RUNNER, DOES NOT SURPRISE ME AND THE GIBBERISH HE PUTS FORTH IS JUST THAT..
WHAT THAT MORON DOES NOT SEE COULD FILL A FOOTBALL STADIUM.
The conservatives have never been a solidly lockstep walking group as we are the true thinkers not the stinking dems!
And we that are not afraid to fight back(even when ridiculed by our own) are now doing so with Trump.
Schools , media, dems, Government have all unified to enforce PC bullshit and their brand of insanity, forcing it down our collective throats and by God we've had enough!
I hope Trump destroys them all............................................... .................................................. ......

As they are nothing more than damn maggots....

Dude that wrote that is either a damn fool or a lying coward, possibly both IMHO!--Tyr

Hit piece? Hardly. Analysis or attempt at what is occurring is what he gets paid for. Observing and trying to read 'tea leaves' isn't hitting anyone, it's all about data.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

Hit piece? Hardly. Analysis or attempt at what is occurring is what he gets paid for. Observing and trying to read 'tea leaves' isn't hitting anyone, it's all about data.




Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics) and elections (see psephology). He is currently the editor-in-chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight blog and a Special Correspondent for ABC News. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA,[3] a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.[4]

Guy works with/for ABC. "SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT. LOL
I REST MY CASE...
He called one election and suddenly he is a god! :laugh: -Tyr

edit- more on the worm.

Silver was born in East Lansing, Michigan, the son of Sally (née Thrun), a community activist, and Brian David Silver, a former chair of the political science department at Michigan State University.[13][14] Silver's mother's family, of English and German descent, includes several distinguished men and women, including his maternal great-grandfather, Harmon Lewis, who was president of the Alcoa Steamship Company, Inc.[15] Silver has described himself as "half-Jewish".[15][16]



the son of Sally (née Thrun), a community activist,
^^^^
lol. :laugh: Kind of like the obama , huh?
Easy to see why this guilt ridden Jew decided to hit Trump methinks . --Tyr

[Perianne]

ANOTHER HIT PIECE ON OUR TOP RUNNER, DOES NOT SURPRISE ME AND THE GIBBERISH HE PUTS FORTH IS JUST THAT..


Someone keeps posting these hit pieces.

[Kathianne]

Guy works with/for ABC. "SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT. LOL
I REST MY CASE...
He called one election and suddenly he is a god! :laugh: -Tyr

Ok, he's paid in part from ABC. Do you honestly believe that Trump and other candidates don't have a bevy of data analysts? Of course. They all come up with different interpretations of those tea leaves-what makes any of their results-hit pieces?

[NightTrain]

Nate Silver is smart, and his predictions are met with respect - usually.

The problem is that this election is nothing like we've ever seen and every single "election guru" (for lack of a better word) has been wrong. I don't think that Silver has the formula either... just like all the others frantically trying to get a handle on this one.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

Someone keeps posting these hit pieces.

And I keep noting that they are hit pieces attempting to destroy our top runner.
This one is perhaps less offensive than previous hit pieces but a hit piece it still is nevertheless.
Asshole works for ABC NETWORK, FOR CRYING OUT LOUD!
STINKING DEM PARTY OWNS ABC!! -TYR

[jimnyc]

I did. There is much overlapping between that article and what I wrote.

I wish there were a TRUE way to know, specifically, after the election - just how many independents voted for who, just how many moderates - who left the party from either side and such. In other words, to see the REAL results of what has happened. There's definitely going to be a lot of changes. And then I wonder if any of this change will reconcile itself down the road?

And if anything, maybe this will in fact show the usual parties that they are not invincible and that things can in fact change. Hell, if up to me, I would have tossed every last one of them out of office and replaced all of them already anyway. I think a bit of shaking up is good for the country. We all know that the usual is not working. Then some of us disagree on just what change is needed, or what that priority should be. That's cool, we gotta start somewhere. Hopefully getting the loser out of office and getting any of the gop candidates in there would be a great start. But almost as important, IMO, is the 34 senate seats up for grabs. If the Dems were to get the majority there, we all know what would happen. The gop needs to hold the lead there too.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

Ok, he's paid in part from ABC. Do you honestly believe that Trump and other candidates don't have a bevy of data analysts? Of course. They all come up with different interpretations of those tea leaves-what makes any of their results-hit pieces?
ANALYSTS GIVING ADVICE TO A CANDIDATE IS NOT WHAT THAT FFING WORM JUST DID.
What he did was please his masters , his employers and gain more admiration from Trump haters/dems/libs..
Its a win/win/win for him to post that as he did. Does not mean its true, correct or valid in any way.
I never trust assholes like that myself and never will.
I do not let others convince who to admire and trust my friend. Not even my own brothers!
Believe what you want, its your right to do so, as it is mine.-Tyr

[Perianne]

And I keep noting that they are hit pieces attempting to destroy our top runner.
This one is perhaps less offensive than previous hit pieces but a hit piece it still is nevertheless.
Asshole works for ABC NETWORK, FOR CRYING OUT LOUD!
STINKING DEM PARTY OWNS ABC!! -TYR

Yes you do. I admire you for that consistency, sir.

[Kathianne]

ANALYSTS GIVING ADVICE TO A CANDIDATE IS NOT WHAT THAT FFING WORM JUST DID.
What he did was please his masters , his employers and gain more admiration from Trump haters/dems/libs..
Its a win/win/win for him to post that as he did. Does not mean its true, correct or valid in any way.
I never trust assholes like that myself and never will.
I do not let others convince who to admire and trust my friend. Not even my own brothers!
Believe what you want, its your right to do so, as it is mine.-Tyr

Who is he 'pushing?' I'm having trouble understanding what gives rise to your ire this time. He's not even a Muslim. ;)