jimnyc
03-01-2016, 04:35 AM
Super Tuesday looms as a big test of this proposition. As Ron Brownstein puts it:
If Trump can beat Cruz…in heavily blue-collar and evangelical states on one side, and top Kasich and Rubio in white collar, less culturally conservative states on the other, it will grow increasingly daunting for any candidate to coalesce a coalition large enough to stop the front-runner.
The new CNN national poll casts further doubt on the likelihood of this working. It finds that Trump has expanded his lead among registered Republican and GOP-leaning independent voters nationally: He has 49 percent; Rubio has 16 percent; Cruz has 15 percent; Ben Carson has 10 percent; and John Kasich has nine percent. Two of the four days of polling were taken after last week’s GOP debate, which was supposed to be a dramatic game-changer for Rubio.
But perhaps Republicans should be even more alarmed about these findings, from the CNN poll’s internals:
— Trump is dominating among Republicans and GOP leaners who are college graduates, with 46 percent, to 19 percent for Rubio, 13 percent for Cruz, and nine percent for Kasich.
— Trump is dominating among suburban Republicans, with 51 percent, to 16 percent for Rubio, 13 percent for Cruz, and six percent for Kasich. As James Hohmann has reported, Rubio’s strategy is heavily focused on winning suburban areas in many Super Tuesday states and beyond.
— Trump is dominating among Republicans who make $50,000 or more, with 50 percent, to 16 percent for Rubio, 15 percent for Cruz, and eight percent for Kasich.
— Trump is dominating among Republicans who are under 55, with 47 percent, to 17 percent for Rubio, 14 percent for Cruz, and five percent for Kasich. (Unfortunately, the samples are too small to break out younger groups.)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/02/29/these-new-trump-poll-numbers-should-absolutely-terrify-republicans/
If Trump can beat Cruz…in heavily blue-collar and evangelical states on one side, and top Kasich and Rubio in white collar, less culturally conservative states on the other, it will grow increasingly daunting for any candidate to coalesce a coalition large enough to stop the front-runner.
The new CNN national poll casts further doubt on the likelihood of this working. It finds that Trump has expanded his lead among registered Republican and GOP-leaning independent voters nationally: He has 49 percent; Rubio has 16 percent; Cruz has 15 percent; Ben Carson has 10 percent; and John Kasich has nine percent. Two of the four days of polling were taken after last week’s GOP debate, which was supposed to be a dramatic game-changer for Rubio.
But perhaps Republicans should be even more alarmed about these findings, from the CNN poll’s internals:
— Trump is dominating among Republicans and GOP leaners who are college graduates, with 46 percent, to 19 percent for Rubio, 13 percent for Cruz, and nine percent for Kasich.
— Trump is dominating among suburban Republicans, with 51 percent, to 16 percent for Rubio, 13 percent for Cruz, and six percent for Kasich. As James Hohmann has reported, Rubio’s strategy is heavily focused on winning suburban areas in many Super Tuesday states and beyond.
— Trump is dominating among Republicans who make $50,000 or more, with 50 percent, to 16 percent for Rubio, 15 percent for Cruz, and eight percent for Kasich.
— Trump is dominating among Republicans who are under 55, with 47 percent, to 17 percent for Rubio, 14 percent for Cruz, and five percent for Kasich. (Unfortunately, the samples are too small to break out younger groups.)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/02/29/these-new-trump-poll-numbers-should-absolutely-terrify-republicans/