CBS Poll: Rubio Won Debate

[jimnyc]

This is good news for Rubio! If Trump drops in SC because of the debate, I've been wondering/asking who we thought would take up the slack. Perhaps it'll be Rubio? I like Rubio a lot, it's just the illegal immigration issue that irks me.

-----

Florida Sen. Marco made up for his poor showing in the New Hampshire presidential debate a week earlier, rating the highest in a CBS News/GfK poll immediately after Saturday's GOP debate in South Carolina.
Here's how Republicans and independents who watched the debate responded when asked who won:

• Marco Rubio: 32 percent
• Donald Trump: 24 percent
• John Kasich: 19 percent
• Ted Cruz: 12 percent
• Ben Carson: 8 percent
• Jeb Bush: 5 percent

Rubio is the "clear favorite" among respondents identifying themselves as Republicans, while independents are split between Trump, Kasich and Rubio, CBS News reported.

But Trump is seen as most likely to win in the general election if he gets the nomination. Here's how the top three ranked on that question:

• Trump: 42 percent
• Rubio: 22 percent
• Cruz: 14 percent

Rest here: http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/debate-reaction-rubio-won/2016/02/14/id/714323/

[NightTrain]

If that poll is any indicator, Cruz is in a nosedive.

I didn't think Rubio won the debate by that much of a margin... but he did perform well. His big moment is when Jeb foundered and Rubio jumped in to slug it out with Trump on the 9/11 - OBL - Iraq - WMD thing. Rubio's intervention at that moment saved Jeb from a terrible ass kicking as Trump began pummeling him. Trump has Jeb's number; and he easily knocks him off balance & destroys him while Jeb's mind struggles to catch up and get back in the game. I hope Jeb sent Marco a thank-you note, because it is deserved, even though the rescue was self-serving and not charity.

I can't see how Kasich got such big numbers... that seems like an anomaly. Really all he did was try to be seen as the peacemaker as the rest of the stage went for the jugular.

I'm not seeing any real drop in Trump support numbers - maybe I'm the Odd Man Out in getting pissed over Trump's statements there. I guess we'll find out this weekend when SC has their say. If nothing else, it'll be a useful benchmark to see how my views fit in with the rest of America.

[Kathianne]

If that poll is any indicator, Cruz is in a nosedive.

I didn't think Rubio won the debate by that much of a margin... but he did perform well. His big moment is when Jeb foundered and Rubio jumped in to slug it out with Trump on the 9/11 - OBL - Iraq - WMD thing. Rubio's intervention at that moment saved Jeb from a terrible ass kicking as Trump began pummeling him. Trump has Jeb's number; and he easily knocks him off balance & destroys him while Jeb's mind struggles to catch up and get back in the game. I hope Jeb sent Marco a thank-you note, because it is deserved, even though the rescue was self-serving and not charity.

I can't see how Kasich got such big numbers... that seems like an anomaly. Really all he did was try to be seen as the peacemaker as the rest of the stage went for the jugular.

I'm not seeing any real drop in Trump support numbers - maybe I'm the Odd Man Out in getting pissed over Trump's statements there. I guess we'll find out this weekend when SC has their say. If nothing else, it'll be a useful benchmark to see how my views fit in with the rest of America.

If I'm reading the methodology correctly, this poll was conducted prior to debate:



Conducted February 10-12, 2016



http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-south-carolina-still-solidly-for-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

[NightTrain]

If I'm reading the methodology correctly, this poll was conducted prior to debate:



http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-south-carolina-still-solidly-for-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/


You're right. The last data was added Feb 10th-12th.

It appears that the data is combined with other polls all the way back from Sept '15... what an odd methodology. Views and support change dynamically; voters are certainly not static.

Am I misunderstanding that?

[Kathianne]

You're right. The last data was added Feb 10th-12th.

It appears that the data is combined with other polls all the way back from Sept '15... what an odd methodology. Views and support change dynamically; voters are certainly not static.

Am I misunderstanding that?

Perhaps it's a 'rolling poll they are doing themselves?'

In any case, I find it odd that there are several stories today citing that poll as a reason to say 'Trump lead grows,' without highlighting in first paragraph that it was conducted before the debate. Seems the correct headline should be something like, "Trump was trouncing his competition at least prior to the debate."

[jimnyc]

If I'm reading the methodology correctly, this poll was conducted prior to debate:



http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-south-carolina-still-solidly-for-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

The methodology is an explanation of how they get their numbers, and perhaps it was repeated from other debates. I don't know. I'm going by what's in the article, which was obviously written after the debate.

Immediately after Saturday night's Republican debate (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-to-watch-cbs-news-republican-debate-south-carolina/), CBS News interviewed a nationally representative sample of debate watchers assembled by GfK's Knowledge Panel who identified themselves as Republicans or independents.Thirty-two percent of these debate watchers say Marco Rubio won the debate, beating out Donald Trump (24 percent) and John Kasich (19 percent), who are ranked second and third, respectively. Further down on the list are Ted Cruz (12 percent), Ben Carson (8 percent), and Jeb Bush (5 percent).

[jimnyc]

FWIW, I went around the "internetospehere" and just about every poll out there from major media, and smaller media (local affiliates), have Trump winning or in 2nd place. And I think this will continue unless he makes that fatal mistake, or the others dwindle down. I think when a lot of people are polled on these things, they are answering as to who they will vote for and not as much who they think won the debate.

[Kathianne]

FWIW, I went around the "internetospehere" and just about every poll out there from major media, and smaller media (local affiliates), have Trump winning or in 2nd place. And I think this will continue unless he makes that fatal mistake, or the others dwindle down. I think when a lot of people are polled on these things, they are answering as to who they will vote for and not as much who they think won the debate.


I wouldn't judge any candidate solely on debates, period. It's the totality that matters to me. Not just what they say on a stage, with a camera or without.

It's what they've said in the past, whom they've given money too-repeatedly.

With Trump it seems that many are willing to just start with his announcement that he's in the race and he can pay for it-just as he'd paid for many politicians in the past-to get what he wanted.

[jimnyc]

I'm seeing this on ScribD, which is on the CBS page:



CBS News Poll The Republican Debate: Rubio and Trump Have a Strong Night February 13, 2016
Postq2. Which candidate do you think did the best job
–
or won
–
tonight's debate? Republican and independent voters who watched debate % Marco Rubio 32 Donald Trump 24 John Kasich 19 Ted Cruz 12 Ben Carson 8 Jeb Bush

[Kathianne]

I'm seeing this on ScribD, which is on the CBS page:



CBS News Poll The Republican Debate: Rubio and Trump Have a Strong Night February 13, 2016
Postq2. Which candidate do you think did the best job
–
or won
–
tonight's debate? Republican and independent voters who watched debate % Marco Rubio 32 Donald Trump 24 John Kasich 19 Ted Cruz 12 Ben Carson 8 Jeb Bush

Hmmm, looks like we're looking at 2 different polls. One on debate and immediate responses, the other on standing going into the debate? Both by CBS.

The rolling numbers, or 'past' results though, would have to be the one I was referring to.

[jimnyc]

Hmmm, looks like we're looking at 2 different polls. One on debate and immediate responses, the other on standing going into the debate? Both by CBS.

The rolling numbers, or 'past' results though, would have to be the one I was referring to.

I'm looking at the "Who won last night's debate?" - http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-who-won-the-cbs-news-republican-debate-2016/

First question in the attached Scribd at the bottom

[Kathianne]

I'm looking at the "Who won last night's debate?" - http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-who-won-the-cbs-news-republican-debate-2016/

First question in the attached Scribd at the bottom

Indeed, seem to be different. Sorry that I mixed the two.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-south-carolina-still-solidly-for-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

[Abbey Marie]

I'm looking at the "Who won last night's debate?" - http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-who-won-the-cbs-news-republican-debate-2016/

First question in the attached Scribd at the bottom

Thanks, Jim. This helps to confirm what my eyes and ears told me about Rubio's very good performance at that debate. What I don't get is the relatively high percentage for Kasich.

[NightTrain]

Thanks, Jim. This helps to confirm what my eyes and ears told me about Rubio's very good performance at that debate. What I don't get is the relatively high percentage for Kasich.


I suspect that was showing a pool of people who don't want the fireworks; they want issues discussed and plans outlined instead of a bloodbath.

Personally, I don't mind the fireworks because of the still-huge GOP field that needs to be whittled down. I'm hoping after SC we'll see it narrow further.

[Abbey Marie]

I suspect that was showing a pool of people who don't want the fireworks; they want issues discussed and plans outlined instead of a bloodbath.

Personally, I don't mind the fireworks because of the still-huge GOP field that needs to be whittled down. I'm hoping after SC we'll see it narrow further.


I get the feeling that with Kasich, it would be like a McCain or Romney losing the election all over again. Nice, and palatable to some Dems and Independents, but nothing to get excited about.

I don't mind some fireworks, and robust debate, but the other night was over the top for me.

[NightTrain]

I get the feeling that with Kasich, it would be like a McCain or Romney losing election all over again. Nice, and palatable to some Dems and Independents, but nothing to get excited about.

I don't mind some fireworks, and robust debate, but the other night was over the top for me.

Yeah, that was a bit over the top!