On to South Carolina

[jimnyc]

Do the results last night make a difference going forward? It's just a tiny fraction of the delegates needed for the nomination.

Polling Data


<tbody>
Poll
Date
Sample
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Bush
Carson
Christie
Huckabee
Kasich
Paul
Fiorina
Santorum
Spread


RCP Average
1/15 - 1/23
--
36.0
19.7
12.7
10.0
8.7
2.3
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.7
0.3
Trump +16.3


NBC/WSJ/Marist (http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/HUB_NBCPolitics_Front/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_South%20Carolina%20An notated%20Questionnaire_January%202016.pdf)
1/17 - 1/23
718 LV
36
20
14
9
8
2
2
1
1
1
0
Trump +16


CBS News/YouGov (https://www.scribd.com/doc/296491353/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-South-Carolina-January-2016)
1/17 - 1/21
805 LV
40
21
13
8
9
1
2
2
3
1
0
Trump +19


Augusta Chronicle (http://savannahnow.com/news/2016-01-17/poll-shows-possible-momentum-bush-south-carolina-while-trump-still-leads#)
1/15 - 1/15
683 LV
32
18
11
13
9
4
2
3
2
3
1
Trump +14

</tbody>

[jimnyc]

I also understand those polls are dated a few weeks. I'll have to peek around for other useless polls! :laugh:

[Kathianne]

In spite of Sununu's success in NH, it's a liberal trending state to say the least. SC will be more open to Cruz, Rubio, Carson's messages. Bush will be in, which Jeb will show up though? GW will and it will be interesting to see if there's more momentum to continue. Fiorina has pledge to stay in through NV, will she regain any traction?

Or will Trump continue to crush all?

[Perianne]

At this point, I simply want the candidate who can defeat the Democrats. Even if the Republican candidate is Rubio, I simply cannot pull for a Democrat.

[jimnyc]

In spite of Sununu's success in NH, it's a liberal trending state to say the least. SC will be more open to Cruz, Rubio, Carson's messages. Bush will be in, which Jeb will show up though? GW will and it will be interesting to see if there's more momentum to continue. Fiorina has pledge to stay in through NV, will she regain any traction?

Or will Trump continue to crush all?

All good questions. I read an article last night that stated Trump was "losing steam" in some of the southern states too. Will have to see how it all plays out. I think that's why some are staying in for an extended period, hoping Trump falters and wait and see where the votes go. Problem is, the election season is garbled with so many damn people running.

I think Trump, Cruz and Rubio move forward solidly. Who will be along for the ride? Carson? Christie? Bush? While I like and admire Carly, and even though she'll be on the trail, I think we can even pull the fork back out at this point. And even though Kasich had a strong showing last night, I think he's done too. So I think we'll have the 3 frontrunners, and maybe one more out of the other 3?

At least it would be nice of that happens by super tuesday, and let us all maybe have a debate or a chance to see more of the candidates than a 2 hour debate with 5 minutes of fighting by each candidate, while they mainly ignore the issues. :)

[jimnyc]

At this point, I simply want the candidate who can defeat the Democrats. Even if the Republican candidate is Rubio, I simply cannot pull for a Democrat.

I can't imagine Sanders beating anyone offered from the GOP this year. Clinton HAD a chance it appeared, but that likelihood is getting smaller and smaller as the days go on. And it will go out the window completely if she gets charged in the email scandal, IMO.

It will be a whole new ballgame should Biden or Bloomberg jump in though. Personally, I think Bloomberg would help the GOP. Biden on the other hand may help bring the democrats together. He's been MIA mostly throughout Obama's presidency, so I think a lot of folks may have forgotten just how stupid he is. :)

[Perianne]

I can't imagine Sanders beating anyone offered from the GOP this year. Clinton HAD a chance it appeared, but that likelihood is getting smaller and smaller as the days go on. And it will go out the window completely if she gets charged in the email scandal, IMO.

It will be a whole new ballgame should Biden or Bloomberg jump in though. Personally, I think Bloomberg would help the GOP. Biden on the other hand may help bring the democrats together. He's been MIA mostly throughout Obama's presidency, so I think a lot of folks may have forgotten just how stupid he is. :)

Biden is goofy.

I still say I have already seen the last Republican president. I think it would take a miracle for the Democrats to lose, but time will tell.

[Kathianne]

All good questions. I read an article last night that stated Trump was "losing steam" in some of the southern states too. Will have to see how it all plays out. I think that's why some are staying in for an extended period, hoping Trump falters and wait and see where the votes go. Problem is, the election season is garbled with so many damn people running.

I think Trump, Cruz and Rubio move forward solidly. Who will be along for the ride? Carson? Christie? Bush? While I like and admire Carly, and even though she'll be on the trail, I think we can even pull the fork back out at this point. And even though Kasich had a strong showing last night, I think he's done too. So I think we'll have the 3 frontrunners, and maybe one more out of the other 3?

At least it would be nice of that happens by super tuesday, and let us all maybe have a debate or a chance to see more of the candidates than a 2 hour debate with 5 minutes of fighting by each candidate, while they mainly ignore the issues. :)

I think Christie will likely pull out today-he did not go onto SC as scheduled and told his supporters he needed to reassess. Carly can afford to stay in, but I'm unsure why she is, unlikely to make the next debate or gain much coverage. Maybe she'll write a book? Carson has some money coming in and he is spending some time on book tour while 'campaigning,' but he left for SC before polls closed, not a great message to send to his supporters-skipping his own after party.

Bush and Rubio, one has to be knocked off. Bush bought breathing room last night, but he's been a different Jeb in NH, will that be the one that continues? While it didn't change Trump's numbers, (I don't think anything can other than Trump), he effectively explained eminent domain issue, which more than likely garnered himself independent votes.)

Other than supporters who are committed enough to work for Carson, Fiorina, their supporters are going to go somewhere. Same with Christie's. Will they all go to Trump?

At some point another is going to drop out, then another. Now there will be many more going to another, including those independents-which is perhaps the largest bloc of all. All to Trump?

[jimnyc]

Other than supporters who are committed enough to work for Carson, Fiorina, their supporters are going to go somewhere. Same with Christie's. Will they all go to Trump?

At some point another is going to drop out, then another. Now there will be many more going to another, including those independents-which is perhaps the largest bloc of all. All to Trump?

I honestly don't see them all going to Trump. So long as Cruz is in the race I think he gets a large amount as well when others drop. Same with Rubio or Carson I believe. I suppose what matters the most is where those voters go when all is said and done in the primaries. I believe there are folks with different choices right now, but I truly believe a lot comes back together when we hit the general season. I think whoever that person is they will get the majority of the voters, for better or worse.

And if one or 2 drop, and you see a big increase for someone other than Trump in the primary that follows, that may be enough to have someone leapfrog him. But if others drop, and Trump increases his lead, that could be all she wrote.

[Kathianne]

I honestly don't see them all going to Trump. So long as Cruz is in the race I think he gets a large amount as well when others drop. Same with Rubio or Carson I believe. I suppose what matters the most is where those voters go when all is said and done in the primaries. I believe there are folks with different choices right now, but I truly believe a lot comes back together when we hit the general season. I think whoever that person is they will get the majority of the voters, for better or worse.

And if one or 2 drop, and you see a big increase for someone other than Trump in the primary that follows, that may be enough to have someone leapfrog him. But if others drop, and Trump increases his lead, that could be all she wrote.

I'm pretty sure that if it comes down to two for the nomination it will come down to all those votes that went for others: 'Do I pick who will win or principles.' That is a choice I can't begin to figure out.

If Trump v Bernie is the final choices-a real dilemma for many. I would vote a third party, but most won't.

[jimnyc]

I'm pretty sure that if it comes down to two for the nomination it will come down to all those votes that went for others: 'Do I pick who will win or principles.' That is a choice I can't begin to figure out.

If Trump v Bernie is the final choices-a real dilemma for many. I would vote a third party, but most won't.

Let's face it, when push comes to shove, a LOT from both parties will vote down the party line, even if their favorite didn't make it past the primaries. Then yes, we always have a fair amount going 3rd party or staying home. There is talk and predictions of record turnouts this year, but who knows whether or not that comes to fruition. I honestly don't see enough staying home or going 3rd that would halt any of the candidates from winning though, regardless of who gets the nod.

[Kathianne]

If it should come down to Trump v Bernie, I'll hope that Trump delivers on 'will be a winner' if elected; if Bernie, I'll hope that Congress becomes reinvigorated or to use what seems to be Hillary's favorite adjective, "Muscular."

[jimnyc]

Perhaps Carson voters move over to Cruz? Not a ton of votes though, but every little bit helps.

-----

Dick Morris: Ben Carson Will Probably Drop Out

Ben Carson will most likely drop out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination after his projected 2 percent showing in the New Hampshire primary, political strategist Dick Morris told Newsmax TV on Tuesday.

"If he gets 2 percent in New Hampshire, I don't see how he can continue," Morris told host J.D. Hayworth on the "Newsmax TV 2016 New Hampshire Primary Special."
"His vote is all Christian Evangelicals," Morris said, "and that's probably going to help Ted Cruz."

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax-Tv/dick-morris-ben-carson-may-drop-out/2016/02/09/id/713549/

[Perianne]

Perhaps Carson voters move over to Cruz? Not a ton of votes though, but every little bit helps.

-----

Dick Morris: Ben Carson Will Probably Drop Out



Ben Carson will most likely drop out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination after his projected 2 percent showing in the New Hampshire primary, political strategist Dick Morris told Newsmax TV on Tuesday.

"If he gets 2 percent in New Hampshire, I don't see how he can continue," Morris told host J.D. Hayworth on the "Newsmax TV 2016 New Hampshire Primary Special."
"His vote is all Christian Evangelicals," Morris said, "and that's probably going to help Ted Cruz."

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax-Tv/dick-morris-ben-carson-may-drop-out/2016/02/09/id/713549/

Ben Carson is another who had a good run.

[Kathianne]

Money on hand:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/election-2016-campaign-money-race.html?_r=0

Carson has enough for SC.

[jimnyc]

Ben Carson is another who had a good run.

Agreed. I didn't know much about him at all coming in, and now I've learned to truly like and respect him. Sometimes it's just not your year. If he doesn't make a comeback, I hope he's willing to try again in another 4!!

[NightTrain]

Prior to Iowa, I would have agreed that Carson's base would flock to Cruz. But after the shenanigans that Cruz's campaign pulled, I don't think they'd support the guy that kneecapped Carson.

Then there's the support Trump showed for Carson in the introductions glitch at the ABC debate. Carson supporters gained a lot of respect for Trump for standing by him and refusing to go on until he was called again.

IMO, his base will largely go to Trump if/when he drops out.

[Kathianne]

Prior to Iowa, I would have agreed that Carson's base would flock to Cruz. But after the shenanigans that Cruz's campaign pulled, I don't think they'd support the guy that kneecapped Carson.

Then there's the support Trump showed for Carson in the introductions glitch at the ABC debate. Carson supporters gained a lot of respect for Trump for standing by him and refusing to go on until he was called again.

IMO, his base will largely go to Trump if/when he drops out.

Trump has dangled vp towards Carson, who's shown some interest with some hesitancy.

Cruz didn't hurt Carson nearly as much as Trump has.

[NightTrain]

Trump has dangled vp towards Carson, who's shown some interest with some hesitancy.

The votes garnered in the primaries is going to be the deciding factor, of course. If the 1st and 2nd place guy team up, of course, you have a broader support - that's assuming their stances are somewhat varied, otherwise you've got the same base.

Carson is different enough in his personality and base to make an appealing ticket to more voters, but there are many other candidates gunning for VP now. Christie and Kasich, and maybe even Rubio soon.


Cruz didn't hurt Carson nearly as much as Trump has.

Well, the methodology is crucial here. Trump fired his broadsides above board, which is acceptable and expected.

Skullduggery as was seen from Cruz's camp in the middle of active voting is viewed much, much differently. Props to Cruz for not firing his hitmen when it came to light, but the politically wise thing would have been to throw them under the bus and use them as a scapegoat. It very well could have been the case that they all had provable orders to do what they did, though, which would rule that option out.

[Abbey Marie]

Prior to Iowa, I would have agreed that Carson's base would flock to Cruz. But after the shenanigans that Cruz's campaign pulled, I don't think they'd support the guy that kneecapped Carson.

Then there's the support Trump showed for Carson in the introductions glitch at the ABC debate. Carson supporters gained a lot of respect for Trump for standing by him and refusing to go on until he was called again.

IMO, his base will largely go to Trump if/when he drops out.

Well, this Carson girl is going Rubio.