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View Full Version : New Hampshire's results were a total disaster for the Republican establishment



Tyr-Ziu Saxnot
02-10-2016, 01:02 AM
http://www.vox.com/2016/2/9/10956684/new-hampshire-republican-disaster

New Hampshire's results were a total disaster for the Republican establishment
Updated by Timothy B. Lee on February 9, 2016, 11:00 p.m. ET tim@vox.com

The results in New Hampshire were the best possible result for Donald Trump and the worst possible result for his Republican critics. New Hampshire didn't just hand Trump a win, it left him perfectly positioned to dominate in South Carolina, Nevada, and other future races.

Trump won by a double-digit margin, which is, of course, great news for him. But perhaps even better for Trump is the order the other Republican candidates finished. John Kasich finished in second place. Third place will probably go to either Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz, with Marco Rubio likely finishing in fifth place.

A whopping 62 percent of Republican voters view Donald Trump unfavorably — the highest unfavorable rate of any Republican presidential candidate. So in a two-way race between Trump and any other Republican candidate, Trump would be vulnerable. But Trump isn't facing one opponent — he's facing several of them.

So Trump's critics desperately need to unify around one candidate — and New Hampshire was supposed to be an opportunity to do that. Instead, New Hampshire left Republicans even further from having an anti-Trump champion:

John Kasich is an impressive candidate on paper: he's the popular governor of Ohio and was a key architect of the balanced budgets of the late 1990s. And his second-place finish in New Hampshire will help to boost his profile. But many Republican voters see him as too moderate. And more importantly he doesn't have the money and organization to wage a nationwide campaign.
Ted Cruz is probably the most formidable anti-Trump candidate. He won Iowa and likely finished a solid third or fourth place in New Hampshire. The problem is that many Republican insiders hate him. They're not going to rally around Cruz until they've run out of other options.
Jeb Bush also appears to have taken third or fourth place in New Hampshire. He has plenty of money and an extensive national organization. The problem is that he seems to be a fatally flawed candidate. He squandered an early lead and tens of millions of dollars in campaign cash to finish in sixth place in Iowa.
Marco Rubio, a charismatic Hispanic senator with a compelling life story, was supposed to be the Republican establishment's best hope. But after an embarrassing gaffe in Saturday's debate, he underperformed his recent poll numbers, finishing behind Kasich and likely behind Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz as well.
Add it all up, and the result is going to be continued paralysis. The primary doesn't put any of these four candidates in a position to seriously threaten Trump. And the longer it takes for the race to converge on a single anti-Trump candidate, the harder it will be for anyone else to catch up.

And it's even worse than that for Republican elites: the candidate with the best chance of challenging Trump is Ted Cruz, a man who many Republican insiders hate. So GOP insiders will have to choose between allying with a man they can't stand or making themselves totally irrelevant.


A whopping 62 percent of Republican voters view Donald Trump unfavorably — the highest unfavorable rate of any Republican presidential candidate.

^^^ THIS IS WHERE HE GETS IT WRONG IMHO..
That stat (even if it is accurate), does not mean what he(they) imply that it does, as its merely a combination of his outspoken , bombastic nature and the combined opposition to him by the totality of the supporters of other Republican candidates.
Additionally, its influenced my media and I suspect even exaggerated too.
Seems to me if its such a damn negative(as was implied) then why is he winning and dominating?
Sure when it gets down to two or three choices he may loose some, question is , would those losses be enough to win the nomination for either of his opponents?
I think not, because he is the hammer we need to beat hell out of the obama agenda and its destruction wrecked upon this nation and tens millions already see that!!!
As this goes on more and more will finally see it IMHO.

This nation needs a strong and active leader, one that will steer it back onto a capitalistic track and fix the economy. Trump fits that bill far ahead of his nearest competitor Cruz and light-years ahead of any of the others.
And he rightly sees the muslim menace and audaciously says so!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Man has courage and loves this nation. Republican elites hate that, as they like the dems view patriotism as an enemy to their own agenda. -TYR

jimnyc
02-10-2016, 03:55 AM
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^^^ THIS IS WHERE HE GETS IT WRONG IMHO..
That stat (even if it is accurate), does not mean what he(they) imply that it does, as its merely a combination of his outspoken , bombastic nature and the combined opposition to him by the totality of the supporters of other Republican candidates.
Additionally, its influenced my media and I suspect even exaggerated too.
Seems to me if its such a damn negative(as was implied) then why is he winning and dominating?
Sure when it gets down to two or three choices he may loose some, question is , would those losses be enough to win the nomination for either of his opponents?
I think not, because he is the hammer we need to beat hell out of the obama agenda and its destruction wrecked upon this nation and tens millions already see that!!!
As this goes on more and more will finally see it IMHO.

This nation needs a strong and active leader, one that will steer it back onto a capitalistic track and fix the economy. Trump fits that bill far ahead of his nearest competitor Cruz and light-years ahead of any of the others.
And he rightly sees the muslim menace and audaciously says so!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Man has courage and loves this nation. Republican elites hate that, as they like the dems view patriotism as an enemy to their own agenda. -TYR

According to them every single other candidate is viewed more favorably than Trump, and yet somehow he leads just about every national poll and every state poll.

Perianne
02-10-2016, 04:55 AM
According to them every single other candidate is viewed more favorably than Trump, and yet somehow he leads just about every national poll and every state poll.

Consider this: other than me, I don't recall anyone on here who views Rubio negatively. But there are several who have a negative view of Trump. So, even among our small group here, Trump is viewed most negatively. From people I talk to, I find some strong Trump supporters but also several people with strong feelings negatively about him. The low information voters will perhaps be inclined to listen to the media, which of course is against Trump.

I think you can take our little group here again and consider that there are more than one who will not vote for Trump under any circumstances. Can you say that about any other candidate? Has anyone (other than me) more or less refused to vote for any of the other candidates?

I think Trump dislike is indeed very strong. Very, very strong.

jimnyc
02-10-2016, 05:19 AM
Consider this: other than me, I don't recall anyone on here who views Rubio negatively. But there are several who have a negative view of Trump. So, even among our small group here, Trump is viewed most negatively. From people I talk to, I find some strong Trump supporters but also several people with strong feelings negatively about him. The low information voters will perhaps be inclined to listen to the media, which of course is against Trump.

I think you can take our little group here again and consider that there are more than one who will not vote for Trump under any circumstances. Can you say that about any other candidate? Has anyone (other than me) more or less refused to vote for any of the other candidates?

I think Trump dislike is indeed very strong. Very, very strong.

I'm confident it is, but obviously his "like" is stronger, or he wouldn't be leading right now. Rubio and Christie, for example, would be listed as having much higher favorable ratings, but yet both more or less getting crushed. Make it easier, lets break it down to 3 candidates - suppose it's Trump, Cruz and Rubio. If Trump has 35% favorable to 15% for Cruz and 12% for Rubio - then Trump is going to win.

We'll get a better idea when it's down to just a few candidates and see where those numbers go. It's too difficult to tell when there are so many candidates involved, and so many votes spread out to candidates that won't even be around in a month or two.

And if you take here for example, while we have some that won't vote for Trump, many more will vote for him. Actually, I only saw one or two or three of them (fully against), and one of them said they would if it came down to that. And not here, but I have in fact seen some who said they would never vote Rubio based on his immigration stance.

And look at the other side, the dislike is even stronger, at least for their self appointed leader. There will be just as big a split over there, if not larger.