Current State of Ukraine

[Christie Brinkley]

Economy


-Ukraine is relying on IMF loans to prop up the economy (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld %2F2015%2Ffeb%2F12%2Fimf-announces-175bn-loan-for-ukraine)
-Ukraine's currency has lost 70% of its value over the past 2 years (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.economist.com%2Fnews%2F finance-and-economics%2F21684171-economy-although-improving-remains-parlous-state-still-edge) with the currency losing 20% of its value (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fuk raines-central-bank-hikes-rate-1423126686) compared to the dollar in just one day in February 2015
-Dramatic spending cuts have had to take place, in two years reducing public spending from 53% of GDP to 46% of GDP (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atlanticcouncil.org%2Fn ews%2Fin-the-news%2Faslund-on-ukraine-s-spending-and-banking-reforms)
-Quarter of outstanding consumer loans and a third of mortgages are in default
-Inflation has diminished the value of savings
-Even if Ukraine's currency recovered a quarter of what it had lost against the dollar since 2013, Ukraine would need an annual growth of 5% until 2022 to reach pre- coup levels
(http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.economist.com%2Fnews%2F finance-and-economics%2F21684171-economy-although-improving-remains-parlous-state-still-edge)
-44% hike in inflation during 2015 (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rt.com%2Fbusiness%2F32 7359-ukraine-inflation-central-bank%2F)

Government/Politics


-Yatsenyuk's salary was increased 25% starting from the 1st December 2015 (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fen.reporter-ua.ru%2Fyatsenyuk-salary-was-increased-by-25.html)
-Fight erupted in the Ukrainian parliament on the 11th December 2015 (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworl d-europe-35069016)
-Artyom Vikto a member of Oleg Lyashko's radical party was filmed singing a neo nazi song (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3F time_continue%3D29%26v%3D0r2LYFGK68A), the sing goes “Adolf Hitler is together with us, Adolf Hitler is in each of us, and an eagle with iron wings will help us at the right time,"
-Opinion polling puts the new president Petro Poroshenko's approval rating below that which was seen by his predecessor Viktor Yanukovich with Poroshenkos approval rating dropping from 45% at the start of his time in office to 17% this December (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gallup.com%2Fpoll%2F187 931%2Fukrainians-disillusioned-leadership.aspx%3Fg_source%3DWorld%26g_medium%3Dne wsfeed%26g_campaign%3Dtiles)
-Members of the neo nazi Azov battalion staged a torch lite march in 201 (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3F v%3DvhqiemmEjYY)5, the group played a large role in the coup in Kiev and the conflict in eastern Ukraine
-Ukrainian interior minister Arsen Avakov threw a glass of water at Governor of Odessa Mikheil Saakashvili (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Farsen.a vakov.1%2Fvideos%2F945144895575617%2F)
-Corruption is still rife in Ukraine with only 7% of the population saying they saw an improvement in the fight against corruption and only 5% sat the government has addressed issues which led to the revolution in the first place. (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fki ev-struggles-to-battle-rampant-corruption-1451641811)

http://www.debatepolicy.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=8227&stc=1

-Even pro regime change Joe Biden is concerned about the level of corruption in the nation saying in a visit to the country that "corruption is eating Ukraine like a cancer" (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.reuters.com%2Fgreat-debate%2F2015%2F12%2F30%2Fcorruption-in-ukraine-is-so-bad-a-nigerian-prince-would-be-embarrassed-2%2F)
-According to Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.transparency.org%2Fcpi2 014%2Fresults) Ukraine ranked 142 out of 174 countries
-An adviser to Ukraine's National Anti-Corruption Bureau said "easily over a dozen billion US dollars a year continue to be stolen from the Ukrainian state through corruption" (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Findepth %2Ffeatures%2F2015%2F12%2Fukraine-government-corruption-151206133110489.html)
-Ukraine bans communist party (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld %2F2015%2Fdec%2F17%2Fukraine-bans-communist-party-separatism)

Military


-Ukraine has failed in recruiting 25,000 conscripts it was hoping for with many observers saying the Ukrainian army needs to transform into a professional force (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.defensenews.com%2Fstory %2Fdefense%2Fpolicy-budget%2Fwarfare%2F2015%2F08%2F26%2Fukraine-conscription-falls-short-half%2F32434679%2F)
-Yuriy Buruikov, an adviser to Ukraine's defense minister said in a televised interview that the military needs to raise its budget to an estimated 100 billion hryvnia ($4.71 Billion USD) per year
-Ukraine's military had to receive US aid with the US delivering two Q-36 Battery Radar Systems to Ukraine (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fukraine.usembassy.gov%2Fsta tements%2Fradars-lviv-delivery-11142015.html)
-In a desperate attempt to stop soldiers from drinking and injuring themselves soldiers are being locked in cages as punishment (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fnews% 2Farticle-3144833%2FUkrainian-troops-locked-metal-cages-punishment-drunk.html)
-Ukraine has been in such a short supply of armored vehicles it had to get 75 obsolete Saxons from the UK with a UK general calling them "useless", a Ukrainian solider was killed in an accident while driving one last year (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fsputniknews.com%2Fmilitary% 2F20150311%2F1019320581.html)with the vehicle unable to climb a small hill
(http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3F v%3Ds2R_0qyx_AY)
-Ukrainian exports of military vehicles have come to a stop in some places with supplies of tanks not materializing "due to ongoing civil war" (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloombergview.com%2Fart icles%2F2015-03-26%2Fhelp-ukraine-to-arm-itself)
-Ukraine only has 18 Su-27 active fighter jets (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2F Ukrainian_Air_Force)

[Drummond]

Economy


-Ukraine is relying on IMF loans to prop up the economy (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld %2F2015%2Ffeb%2F12%2Fimf-announces-175bn-loan-for-ukraine)
-Ukraine's currency has lost 70% of its value over the past 2 years (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.economist.com%2Fnews%2F finance-and-economics%2F21684171-economy-although-improving-remains-parlous-state-still-edge) with the currency losing 20% of its value (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fuk raines-central-bank-hikes-rate-1423126686) compared to the dollar in just one day in February 2015
-Dramatic spending cuts have had to take place, in two years reducing public spending from 53% of GDP to 46% of GDP (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atlanticcouncil.org%2Fn ews%2Fin-the-news%2Faslund-on-ukraine-s-spending-and-banking-reforms)
-Quarter of outstanding consumer loans and a third of mortgages are in default
-Inflation has diminished the value of savings
-Even if Ukraine's currency recovered a quarter of what it had lost against the dollar since 2013, Ukraine would need an annual growth of 5% until 2022 to reach pre- coup levels
(http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.economist.com%2Fnews%2F finance-and-economics%2F21684171-economy-although-improving-remains-parlous-state-still-edge)
-44% hike in inflation during 2015 (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rt.com%2Fbusiness%2F32 7359-ukraine-inflation-central-bank%2F)

Government/Politics


-Yatsenyuk's salary was increased 25% starting from the 1st December 2015 (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fen.reporter-ua.ru%2Fyatsenyuk-salary-was-increased-by-25.html)
-Fight erupted in the Ukrainian parliament on the 11th December 2015 (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworl d-europe-35069016)
-Artyom Vikto a member of Oleg Lyashko's radical party was filmed singing a neo nazi song (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3F time_continue%3D29%26v%3D0r2LYFGK68A), the sing goes “Adolf Hitler is together with us, Adolf Hitler is in each of us, and an eagle with iron wings will help us at the right time,"
-Opinion polling puts the new president Petro Poroshenko's approval rating below that which was seen by his predecessor Viktor Yanukovich with Poroshenkos approval rating dropping from 45% at the start of his time in office to 17% this December (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gallup.com%2Fpoll%2F187 931%2Fukrainians-disillusioned-leadership.aspx%3Fg_source%3DWorld%26g_medium%3Dne wsfeed%26g_campaign%3Dtiles)
-Members of the neo nazi Azov battalion staged a torch lite march in 201 (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3F v%3DvhqiemmEjYY)5, the group played a large role in the coup in Kiev and the conflict in eastern Ukraine
-Ukrainian interior minister Arsen Avakov threw a glass of water at Governor of Odessa Mikheil Saakashvili (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Farsen.a vakov.1%2Fvideos%2F945144895575617%2F)
-Corruption is still rife in Ukraine with only 7% of the population saying they saw an improvement in the fight against corruption and only 5% sat the government has addressed issues which led to the revolution in the first place. (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fki ev-struggles-to-battle-rampant-corruption-1451641811)

http://www.debatepolicy.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=8227&stc=1

-Even pro regime change Joe Biden is concerned about the level of corruption in the nation saying in a visit to the country that "corruption is eating Ukraine like a cancer" (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.reuters.com%2Fgreat-debate%2F2015%2F12%2F30%2Fcorruption-in-ukraine-is-so-bad-a-nigerian-prince-would-be-embarrassed-2%2F)
-According to Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.transparency.org%2Fcpi2 014%2Fresults) Ukraine ranked 142 out of 174 countries
-An adviser to Ukraine's National Anti-Corruption Bureau said "easily over a dozen billion US dollars a year continue to be stolen from the Ukrainian state through corruption" (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Findepth %2Ffeatures%2F2015%2F12%2Fukraine-government-corruption-151206133110489.html)
-Ukraine bans communist party (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld %2F2015%2Fdec%2F17%2Fukraine-bans-communist-party-separatism)

Military


-Ukraine has failed in recruiting 25,000 conscripts it was hoping for with many observers saying the Ukrainian army needs to transform into a professional force (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.defensenews.com%2Fstory %2Fdefense%2Fpolicy-budget%2Fwarfare%2F2015%2F08%2F26%2Fukraine-conscription-falls-short-half%2F32434679%2F)
-Yuriy Buruikov, an adviser to Ukraine's defense minister said in a televised interview that the military needs to raise its budget to an estimated 100 billion hryvnia ($4.71 Billion USD) per year
-Ukraine's military had to receive US aid with the US delivering two Q-36 Battery Radar Systems to Ukraine (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fukraine.usembassy.gov%2Fsta tements%2Fradars-lviv-delivery-11142015.html)
-In a desperate attempt to stop soldiers from drinking and injuring themselves soldiers are being locked in cages as punishment (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fnews% 2Farticle-3144833%2FUkrainian-troops-locked-metal-cages-punishment-drunk.html)
-Ukraine has been in such a short supply of armored vehicles it had to get 75 obsolete Saxons from the UK with a UK general calling them "useless", a Ukrainian solider was killed in an accident while driving one last year (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fsputniknews.com%2Fmilitary% 2F20150311%2F1019320581.html)with the vehicle unable to climb a small hill
(http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3F v%3Ds2R_0qyx_AY)
-Ukrainian exports of military vehicles have come to a stop in some places with supplies of tanks not materializing "due to ongoing civil war" (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloombergview.com%2Fart icles%2F2015-03-26%2Fhelp-ukraine-to-arm-itself)
-Ukraine only has 18 Su-27 active fighter jets (http://www.debatepolitics.com/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2F Ukrainian_Air_Force)

Where's this going ?

Are you arguing for Ukraine to, once more, come under jackboot rule of Russia, with Putin succeeding in annexing this in addition to Crimea, to make his 'collection' complete ?

To what extent is Russia adding to Ukraine's fiscal woes, anyway ? Well, let's see ......

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2015/07/13/commentary/world-commentary/russias-war-on-ukraines-economy/#.Vob4UPmLQ2x


Ukraine’s economy may no longer be in free fall, but it remains in dire straits. The country’s GDP contracted by 6.8 percent last year, and is forecast to shrink by another 9 percent this year — a total loss of roughly 16 percent over two years. While things seem, to some extent, to be stabilizing — depreciation of the hryvnia has eliminated the country’s current-account deficit, and a massive fiscal adjustment brought Ukraine’s budget into cash balance in the second quarter of this year — the situation remains precarious.

Ukraine’s primary economic challenges are not homegrown; they are the result of Russian aggression. The country’s belligerent eastern neighbor has annexed Crimea, sponsored rebels in eastern Ukraine, pursued a trade war, intermittently cut off its supply of natural gas, and is threatening financial attack. So far, Ukraine has miraculously managed to withstand these assaults with little international support — but it is in desperate need of assistance.

Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014 seized 4 percent of Ukraine’s GDP. Since then, Russian-supported armed forces have occupied territories in eastern Ukraine that accounted for 10 percent of the country’s GDP in 2013. With the Donbas region’s production having plummeted by 70 percent in the months since, this has cost Ukraine some 7 percent of its 2013 GDP.

Since 2013, Russian trade sanctions have slashed Ukraine’s exports to the country by 70 percent — accounting for a drop of 18 percent in Ukraine’s total exports. Last year alone, Ukraine’s exports to Russia — which included machinery, steel, agricultural goods, and chemicals — fell by half. Logistical issues, the lack of commercial links, and the specialization of some products meant that the goods could not be redirected in the short term. I estimate that the loss is likely to correspond to a 6 percent decline in Ukraine’s GDP.

Businessmen everywhere are aware of Russia’s assault on Ukraine, and, unsurprisingly, few want to invest in a war zone. As a consequence, Ukraine’s net foreign-direct investment, which was slightly over 3 percent of GDP before the start of hostilities, has evaporated. This amounts to a corresponding reduction of 3 percent of GDP. In addition to this, Ukraine has faced an intermittent gas war. A financial assault may be yet to come.

Leaving Crimea aside, we can attempt conservatively to sum up Ukraine’s economic losses from Russia’s aggression. Roughly 7 percent from lost production in occupied eastern Ukraine, 6 percent losses from trade sanctions, plus 3 percent from lost foreign direct investment amounts to 16 percent of GDP — that is, the total amount Ukraine is estimated to have lost from the beginning of 2014 to the end of this year.

Russia’s apparent but undeclared aim is to make sure that democratic Ukraine fails, without looking entirely guilty of having caused that failure. This leads to an important conclusion: Ukraine is not the culprit but the victim, and it should be treated accordingly.

I think this offers a more balanced overview, don't you ?

[Christie Brinkley]

Where's this going ?

Are you arguing for Ukraine to, once more, come under jackboot rule of Russia, with Putin succeeding in annexing this in addition to Crimea, to make his 'collection' complete ?

To what extent is Russia adding to Ukraine's fiscal woes, anyway ? Well, let's see ......

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2015/07/13/commentary/world-commentary/russias-war-on-ukraines-economy/#.Vob4UPmLQ2x



I think this offers a more balanced overview, don't you ?
Ukraine was democratic before the coup so I don't know what that opinion piece from the Japanese newspaper is talking about. Imagine if Russia carried out a coup in Mexico to weaken US influence, what would the US do? Sit back and watch themselves become isolated and irrelevant?

[Drummond]

Ukraine was democratic before the coup so I don't know what that opinion piece from the Japanese newspaper is talking about. Imagine if Russia carried out a coup in Mexico to weaken US influence, what would the US do? Sit back and watch themselves become isolated and irrelevant?

Ukraine was a more complete entity, though, wasn't it ? How much of their economy was dependent on Crimea's part in it ?? Your pal Putin has blown a hole in all that, by robbing Ukraine of its province. It's a bit like saying that Scotland makes, and succeeds in, a land-grab of NE England, seizing all the assets and financial contribution the North East has and makes to England, then expecting England to absorb the loss without damage !

The 'opinion piece' didn't originate from Japan, by the way ... but from a site called 'project-syndicate.org'. I had to quote from a Japanese publication because its originating source demands you register with the site to get a proper viewing of what they publish, whereas the Japanese link I used was freely accessible.

Sheer commonsense says that Putin's territory-grab, to say nothing of the disruption in Eastern Ukraine, couldn't help but do a great deal of damage. If Putin wants Ukraine to thrive, his obvious answer would be to return Crimea to Ukraine proper, and STOP fomenting trouble in the east.

But of course, Putin has no such plans. Quite the reverse ....

The spectre of the Russian jackboot hovers over Ukraine, and Putin hopes for Ukraine's capitulation. And if/when this happens, where's next ? Latvia ? Lithuania ? Our British military has voiced such a concern. Also .. see ......

https://news.vice.com/article/lithuania-thinks-the-russians-are-coming-and-its-preparing-with-wargames


In March, Lithuanian president Dalia Grybauskaite told the BBC that her country was "already under attack." In September, she called Russia a state with "terrorist elements".

Across the region, forces are being mobilized to pre-emptively thwart Russian military meddling. Last week, US tanks rolled through the Estonian countryside, a mere 65 miles from the Russian border, as part of the 13,000 troop Operation Steadfast Javelin. And the Nordic Sea played host to the curiously titled Operation Dynamic Mongoose.

Lithuania is greatly alarmed at what Putin's already done, and they're assuming that at some future stage Putin will give that country the same consideration that he's been 'kind enough' to mete out to parts of Ukraine. They expect to have to fight for their freedom.

ISIS notwithstanding, I consider Putin to be the greatest threat to world security in existence today. This is one scary control freak.