Is being the early frontrunner the kiss of death?

[Black Diamond]

Rudy Giuliani, Paul Tsongas, Hillary Clinton, Fred Thompson, Howard Dean,

History ain't on Trump's side.

[Black Diamond]

I forgot Herman Cain

[DLT]

Rudy Giuliani, Paul Tsongas, Hillary Clinton, Fred Thompson, Howard Dean,

History ain't on Trump's side.

Really looking like it could be, eh? There is such a thing as "timing is everything"...lol.

[DLT]

I forgot Herman Cain

Poor Cain. Got Cosbied. Or....did Cosby get Cained? lol

[Abbey Marie]

OTOH, I'm pretty sure that Washington was the front-runner.

;)

[NightTrain]

Starting with Nixon, here are non-incumbent results for primary elections:


1968 - frontrunners won (Humphrey, Nixon)
1972 - frontrunner (Muskie) loses to dark horse McGovern
1976 - frontrunners (Teddy Kennedy, Henry Jackson?) lose to dark horse Carter
1980 - frontrunner Reagan wins
1984 - frontrunner Mondale wins
1988 - frontrunner Bush wins; frontrunner Hart loses (drops out in Donna Rice scandal); previously-mostly-unheral<wbr>ded Dukakis beats weak field
1992 - considered a weak Democratic field without a clear frontrunner ("seven dwarves" led by Tsongas); remember that frontrunner candidates Mario Cuomo / Sam Nunn decided against running; Clinton wasn't a huge dark horse, but definitely wasn't considered the frontrunner
1996 - frontrunner Dole wins
2000 - frontrunner Gore and Bush win (Bush emerges as frontrunner once he announces that he's raised $30+ million very early)
2004 - was Kerry the frontrunner? I think so.
2008 - frontrunner McCain wins; frontrunner Clinton loses to dark horse Obama
2012 - frontrunner Romney wins


https://www.quora.com/Historically-how-well-have-early-front-runners-in-presidential-campaigns-done

[Black Diamond]

Starting with Nixon, here are non-incumbent results for primary elections:


1968 - frontrunners won (Humphrey, Nixon)
1972 - frontrunner (Muskie) loses to dark horse McGovern
1976 - frontrunners (Teddy Kennedy, Henry Jackson?) lose to dark horse Carter
1980 - frontrunner Reagan wins
1984 - frontrunner Mondale wins
1988 - frontrunner Bush wins; frontrunner Hart loses (drops out in Donna Rice scandal); previously-mostly-unheral<wbr>ded Dukakis beats weak field
1992 - considered a weak Democratic field without a clear frontrunner ("seven dwarves" led by Tsongas); remember that frontrunner candidates Mario Cuomo / Sam Nunn decided against running; Clinton wasn't a huge dark horse, but definitely wasn't considered the frontrunner
1996 - frontrunner Dole wins
2000 - frontrunner Gore and Bush win (Bush emerges as frontrunner once he announces that he's raised $30+ million very early)
2004 - was Kerry the frontrunner? I think so.
2008 - frontrunner McCain wins; frontrunner Clinton loses to dark horse Obama
2012 - frontrunner Romney wins


https://www.quora.com/Historically-how-well-have-early-front-runners-in-presidential-campaigns-done
Good list. Dean was frontrunner in 2004.

[Black Diamond]

Good list. Dean was frontrunner in 2004.

Also Cain in 2012

[Black Diamond]

And Giuliani in 2008. I am talking about peaking early like a year out

[NightTrain]

I'm not sure how accurate this guy is, but the names all sound right at first glance.

I'm pretty sure that Reagan was frontrunner from the get-go... that was my first thought when I searched for it.

[Black Diamond]

I'm not sure how accurate this guy is, but the names all sound right at first glance.

I'm pretty sure that Reagan was frontrunner from the get-go... that was my first thought when I searched for it.

It may depend on what we mean by frontrunner.

[Abbey Marie]

A couple of questions come to mind:

How does the large size of the this year's field impact the implications of being the front runner?

Also, how do we decide when the term "front runner" applies? Is it when the first poll is taken? The first 10 polls? After the first debate?

[Black Diamond]

A couple of questions come to mind:

How does the large size of the this year's field impact the implications of being the front runner?

Also, how do we decide when the term "front runner" applies? Is it when the first poll is taken? The first 10 polls? After the first debate?

Exactly. A year out doesn't equal the week before Iowa.

[jimnyc]

Fred Thompson

Sure wish he would have done better and stayed in the race. He was one of my favorites in a long time. :(