PPP : Trump at 35% in NH

[NightTrain]

I'm still chuckling about the media pundits claiming he peaked two weeks ago. The 2nd is Kasich at a distant 11%. Walker is down from 24% last time to 7%.

Interestingly, Sanders is beating Hellary 42% to 35%.


PPP's new New Hampshire poll finds Donald Trump in the strongest position of any poll we've done anywhere since he entered the race. Trump laps the Republican field with 35% to 11% for John Kasich, 10% for Carly Fiorina, 7% each for Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, 6% for Ben Carson, 4% each for Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio, and 3% for Rand Paul. Candidates falling outside the top ten in the state are Rick Perry at 2%, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, and Rick Santorum at 1%, and Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, and Bobby Jindal all at less than 1%. Everyone does have at least one supporter on this poll.

To give an idea of how fundamentally the contest has shifted over the last four months none of Trump, Kasich, and Fiorina weren't even included in the horse race question when we last polled the state in April. The candidate who's made the most cataclysmic drop is Walker- he's gone from leading at 24% all the way down to 7% in this newest poll.


Three other candidates who've seen dramatic decreases in their support are Cruz, Huckabee, and Paul. Cruz's 10 point drop from 14% to 4% is a little bit misleading. When we last polled the state he was still enjoying the bump he received following his candidacy announcement. It's worse news for Paul- he's declined 8 points from 12% to 4% but more notably he's seen a major blow to his image. In April he had a +29 net favorability rating at 54/25. That's now dropped a remarkable 44 points to a -15 spread at 34/49. We've found Paul under water all four places we've polled since the Republican debate. It's a similarly bad story for Huckabee- he's dropped from 7% to less than 1% and he's also seen his favorability go from +16 at 48/32 to -7 at 34/41. For Paul and Huckabee it's not just that other candidates are passing them by- they are becoming increasingly unpopular themselves.


Trump's advantage over the Republican field is thorough. He leads with Tea Party voters (44%), men (39%), independents (36%), conservatives (36%), voters who are most concerned about electability (35%), both younger voters and seniors (at 34% with each), evangelicals (32%), women (30%), and moderates (29%). Trump has a 56/32 favorability rating and he also leads when you match him with the other Republican hopefuls head to head- it's 47/39 over Ben Carson, 53/35 over Scott Walker, 53/34 over Marco Rubio, and 56/33 over Jeb Bush.


Quick notes on some of the other candidates:


-Bush is really struggling. Only 38% of primary voters have a favorable opinion of him to 41% with a negative one. This is largely a function of his unpopularity with conservatives- among voters who identify themselves as 'very conservative' just 34% have a positive opinion of him to 48% who have a negative one. Only 3% say he's their first choice for the nomination, putting him in a tie for 8th place with that group.
-Kasich is on the move because of his strength with moderate voters. He gets 20% with them, putting him second to Trump, and making up for his own trouble on the right- he gets just 1% with 'very conservative' voters. Moderates are 29% of the GOP electorate on this poll, a lot more than in most places.


-New Hampshire makes another state where Ben Carson is the most well liked Republican, with 62% rating him favorably to 17% who have a negative opinion. Carly Fiorina is not far behind him at 58/19. Besides those two and Trump, the only other Republican seen positively by a majority of primary voters is Marco Rubio at 50/27.


-Besides Bush, Huckabee, and Paul other Republican hopefuls with negative favorabilities even among the GOP electorate in New Hampshire are Lindsey Graham at 20/43 (-23), Chris Christie at 35/46 (-11), Jim Gilmore at 4/13 (-9) George Pataki at 27/32 (-5), and Rick Perry at 34/37 (-3).


There's been a big shift on the Democratic side since April as well. Bernie Sanders now leads the field in the state with 42% to 35% for Hillary Clinton, 6% for Jim Webb, 4% for Martin O'Malley, 2% for Lincoln Chafee, and 1% for Lawrence Lessig.


The main story in New Hampshire is how universally popular Sanders has become with the Democratic electorate. 78% see him favorably to only 12% with a negative opinion- that makes him easily the most popular candidate on either side with their party's voters. Meanwhile Hillary Clinton's favorability numbers have taken a little bit of a hit- she was at 78/10 with Democratic primary voters in April, but now she's at a 63/25 spread.


The ideological divide is actually not that stark on the Democratic side. Sanders is ahead with 'somewhat liberal' voters (45/32), 'very liberal' ones (46/37), and moderates (40/36) alike. And although there is certainly a gender gap Sanders is ahead with both men (44/30) and women (41/38). But the real big divide we see is along generational lines- Clinton is ahead 51/34 with seniors, but Sanders has a 45/29 advantage with everyone under the age of 65.


New Hampshire is somewhat a world unto itself in the Democratic race. We're still finding Clinton well ahead everywhere else. But it's clear there's a real race now in the Granite State.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/ppps-new-new-hampshire-poll-finds-donald-trump-in-the-strongest-position-of-any-poll-weve-done-anywhere-since-he-entered-the.html

[Black Diamond]

His big lead in New Hampshire doesn't surprise me. His big lead in South Carolina DOES.

[Kathianne]

His big lead in New Hampshire doesn't surprise me. His big lead in South Carolina DOES.

I'm no longer surprised. Lots may still happen, but I continue to think this is indicative of the populism that will have to run its course. That doesn't mean in months, it may be many years. It may mean a more fundamental change than Obama has made.

However, history lessons do not bode well for its rise.

[Perianne]

I truly don't get the Rubio love among "conservatives". I am in the "very conservative" category (a place where everyone should be). Rubio will make the USA a Hispanic nation.

To some small degree, I am pulling for Trump because of all the goody-goodies who despise him. The GOP has hired consultants whose purpose is to bring down Trump. Trump's greatest enemy is the Republican elites.

[Kathianne]

I truly don't get the Rubio love among "conservatives". I am in the "very conservative" category (a place where everyone should be). Rubio will make the USA a Hispanic nation.

To some small degree, I am pulling for Trump because of all the goody-goodies who despise him. The GOP has hired consultants whose purpose is to bring down Trump. Trump's greatest enemy is the Republican elites.

You have nothing to worry about regarding the 'Republican Elites' and Trump. They've tried and failed. This is beyond the normal political wisdom.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

I'm no longer surprised. Lots may still happen, but I continue to think this is indicative of the populism that will have to run its course. That doesn't mean in months, it may be many years. It may mean a more fundamental change than Obama has made.

However, history lessons do not bode well for its rise.

To me, the big question is--will this populism reverse the liberalism infected with the socialism that the obama has now so deeply ingrained into our government and its agencies?
If it takes that path(and I think it may) then how could it be worse than the very destructive path that the dems/libs and the obama have us on now?

Should Trump keep his word on immigration and restoring the economy, the negatives can not be worse than the path that we are now on IMHO.---Tyr

[Perianne]

More of people against Trump. Univision's Whore Hey Ramos at Trump conference getting disrespectful and then Trump shoving it right back. Yes, I am falling for Trump!!!!

Great video!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3mj51qagx0

Why would someone name their kid Whore Hey? Stupid name, lol.

[Perianne]

I'm no longer surprised. Lots may still happen, but I continue to think this is indicative of the populism that will have to run its course. That doesn't mean in months, it may be many years. It may mean a more fundamental change than Obama has made.

However, history lessons do not bode well for its rise.

Will you explain why you think Populism is a bad thing?

[Kathianne]

Will you explain why you think Populism is a bad thing?

I think that is one you'll have to do your own research on. I doubt you'll agree. That's all good.

[tailfins]

Will you explain why you think Populism is a bad thing?

If I may take the liberty: It's because populism caters to low-information voters and is not based on facts.

[Perianne]

I think that is one you'll have to do your own research on. I doubt you'll agree. That's all good.

I already have, and you're right; I don't agree. But I was curious why you thought it was a bad thing?

[Kathianne]

I already have, and you're right; I don't agree. But I was curious why you thought it was a bad thing?

On this particular topic, no good can come from that. So, I'll keep my counsel.

[gabosaurus]

Does it really matter where anyone polls now? It's six months before the first primary.

[Perianne]

Does it really matter where anyone polls now? It's six months before the first primary.

Sure it does.

[Kathianne]

Does it really matter where anyone polls now? It's six months before the first primary.

Only in the sense of where the people are, not so much the politicians. The democrats are going to have to deal with their problems, which are mighty. "Old, White." "Obama gives Joe a Go." "Bernie may run on Socialist Party" "emails, emails, emails." "Trump on immigration resonates for some Democrats, most independents"

What is happening for the conservatives though isn't quality of talent, but how their constituencies are splintering. I listened a bit to Trump tonight in Iowa going on about how 'wonderful' he's doing in the polls, which is all true. However as reflected on this board, to a lesser degree in real life, is indicative though of where breaks may come.

I don't doubt anyone's choices are right for them, I just would love to see something that went beyond emotions. That however is my own problem. There are more than just me, but not so much here.

[gabosaurus]

Trump's problem is that he is running his campaign as a sprint and not a marathon. Every place he goes, there is this raving "now is the time to act" spiel. Trump is trying to be everything everywhere.
What might happen is that people will tire of listening to him and tune him out six months from now.

[LongTermGuy]

More of people against Trump. Univision's Whore Hey Ramos at Trump conference getting disrespectful and then Trump shoving it right back. Yes, I am falling for Trump!!!!

Great video!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3mj51qagx0

Why would someone name their kid Whore Hey? Stupid name, lol.

Love it!

Seen the article on Yahoo...went to comments looking to battle leftist siding with Ramos...1800 comments with through all of em...maybe about 5 for Ramos...Rest siding and Pro Trump...and criticizing yahoos writer fot the Liberal slant...


*My comment on yahoo comments...:coffee:

****

Journalist my EYE...!

>>>> More like a ... Unavision (Mexico station) hard core `ViVa-La Mexico ` Radical left wing lunatic... that believes United States should have open borders and the USA owes mexico...most of us have seen him on TV ...

>>>...he wont shut-up and let other folks answer questions..continues yelling and talking like a machine.... spewing how everything in not fair for Mexico and its Americas fault...

***
Donald Trump 2016! Cure for Illegal Parasites and Liberal...deceit...ignorance and stupidity!

[Perianne]

Only in the sense of where the people are, not so much the politicians. The democrats are going to have to deal with their problems, which are mighty. "Old, White." "Obama gives Joe a Go." "Bernie may run on Socialist Party" "emails, emails, emails." "Trump on immigration resonates for some Democrats, most independents"

What is happening for the conservatives though isn't quality of talent, but how their constituencies are splintering. I listened a bit to Trump tonight in Iowa going on about how 'wonderful' he's doing in the polls, which is all true. However as reflected on this board, to a lesser degree in real life, is indicative though of where breaks may come.

I don't doubt anyone's choices are right for them, I just would love to see something that went beyond emotions. That however is my own problem. There are more than just me, but not so much here.

Are you talking about your choices being driven by emotions?

[Perianne]

Trump's problem is that he is running his campaign as a sprint and not a marathon. Every place he goes, there is this raving "now is the time to act" spiel. Trump is trying to be everything everywhere.
What might happen is that people will tire of listening to him and tune him out six months from now.

Or they might not. It will be fascinating to see. I am enjoying this.

[Perianne]

Love it!

Seen the article on Yahoo...went to comments looking to battle leftist siding with Ramos...1800 comments with through all of em...maybe about 5 for Ramos...Rest siding and Pro Trump...and criticizing yahoos writer fot the Liberal slant...


*My comment on yahoo comments...:coffee:

****

Journalist my EYE...!

>>>> More like a ... Unavision (Mexico station) hard core `ViVa-La Mexico ` Radical left wing lunatic... that believes United States should have open borders and the USA owes mexico...most of us have seen him on TV ...

>>>...he wont shut-up and let other folks answer questions..continues yelling and talking like a machine.... spewing how everything in not fair for Mexico and its Americas fault...

***
Donald Trump 2016! Cure for Illegal Parasites and Liberal...deceit...ignorance and stupidity!

I wish he would try that with Tyr. I would love to see Whore Hey squashed like the nasty insect that he is.

[LongTermGuy]

Or they might not. It will be fascinating to see. I am enjoying this.


*Love your Avatar Perianne...for some reason..It makes me think of the movie "somewhere in time" a love story...with Christopher Reeve

[Perianne]

*Love your Avatar Perianne...for some reason..It makes me think of the movie "somewhere in time" a love story...with Christopher Reeve

That is from Inglourious Basterds. She is a lovely woman.

http://theredlist.com/media/database/muses/icon/cinematic_women/2000/diane-kruger/044-diane-kruger-theredlist.jpg

[LongTermGuy]

I wish he would try that with Tyr. I would love to see Whore Hey squashed like the nasty insect that he is.


would be a waste of time for Tyr or anyone not worth physical effort ...Ramos is a emotional "small" loud mouth radical Mexican extremist...I know much about him

[gabosaurus]

All it takes is one mistake and the presidential campaign leaves you on the road side.
Examples:
Jesse Jackson referring to NYC as "Hymietown."
John Dean's notorious scream in 2004.
Gerald Ford's statement that Russia did not control Eastern Europe
Sarah Palin talking to Katie Couric
And, of course, Rick Perry's famous lack of debate skills.

[LongTermGuy]

That is from Inglourious Basterds. She is a lovely woman.

http://theredlist.com/media/database/muses/icon/cinematic_women/2000/diane-kruger/044-diane-kruger-theredlist.jpg

​ahhhh...Yes...Now I remember...The movie...I like the look...

[Perianne]

All it takes is one mistake and the presidential campaign leaves you on the road side.
Examples:
Jesse Jackson referring to NYC as "Hymietown."
John Dean's notorious scream in 2004.
Gerald Ford's statement that Russia did not control Eastern Europe
Sarah Palin talking to Katie Couric
And, of course, Rick Perry's famous lack of debate skills.

I think you meant Howard Dean. But yes, you are correct. Isn't it awesome the level of intelligence from the females on this forum? :)

[Kathianne]

All it takes is one mistake and the presidential campaign leaves you on the road side.
Examples:
Jesse Jackson referring to NYC as "Hymietown."
John Dean's notorious scream in 2004.
Gerald Ford's statement that Russia did not control Eastern Europe
Sarah Palin talking to Katie Couric
And, of course, Rick Perry's famous lack of debate skills.

I don't see Trump winning the presidency, unless the Democrats go crazy left, which there are signs they may. "independents used to be drawn mostly from center Democrats who found the party left them. Now they may be joined by their counterpoints and even more conservative members on the right.

[Black Diamond]

I don't see Trump winning the presidency, unless the Democrats go crazy left, which there are signs they may. "independents used to be drawn mostly from center Democrats who found the party left them. Now they may be joined by their counterpoints and even more conservative members on the right.

Or if Sanders goes independent.

[LongTermGuy]

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/wp-content/uploads/Ramos-Trump-CNN.jpg

[Perianne]

Or if Sanders goes independent.

Biden will get about 70% of the Democrat vote if he is the nominee.
Sanders will get about 10% of the Democrat vote if he runs third party.
Warren will get about 10% of the Democrat vote if she runs third party.
Trump will get about 10% of the Democrat vote.

That could open the door for any Republican.

[Black Diamond]

Biden will get about 70% of the Democrat vote if he is the nominee.
Sanders will get about 10% of the Democrat vote if he runs third party.
Warren will get about 10% of the Democrat vote if she runs third party.
Trump will get about 10% of the Democrat vote.

That could open the door for any Republican.

I don't think Warren is running for the top of a ticket....

[Perianne]

I don't think Warren is running for the top of a ticket....

I'm dreaming about what could be.

[Perianne]

http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/331.jpg?cdf920

[Perianne]

More of people against Trump. Univision's Whore Hey Ramos at Trump conference getting disrespectful and then Trump shoving it right back. Yes, I am falling for Trump!!!!

Great video!

Why would someone name their kid Whore Hey? Stupid name, lol.

Now we find out that Whore Hey's daughter works for Hillary.


Jorge Ramos, the amnesty activist moonlighting as a Univision and Fusion journalist, revealed in June that his daughter is an employee of the Hillary Clinton campaign.

Those of you who are soooo against Trump, be aware that you are on the same side as Whore Hey, RINOs, Democrats, and others of their ilk. Just sayin'.

http://www.theamericanmirror.com/surprise-jorge-ramoss-daughter-works-for-hillary-campaign/

[NightTrain]

Now we find out that Whore Hey's daughter works for Hillary.


I'm sure there's a few other revelations lying in the weeds there, too.

[Kathianne]

It really is a phenomena:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/252066-pollsters-dumbfounded-by-trump



August 27, 2015, 06:00 amPollsters dumbfounded by Trump
By Ben Kamisar (http://thehill.com/author/ben-kamisar)

Polling experts agree on one thing when it comes to Donald Trump’s presidential run: They’ve never seen anything like it.


The billionaire businessman’s dominance of the Republican presidential race is forcing experienced political hands to question whether everything they know about winning the White House is wrong.


The shocks have come in quick succession, with Trump first rocketing to the top of national polls, and then taking double-digit leads in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

In another act of political magic, Trump managed to flip his favorability rating from negative to positive in one poll during the span of a month — a feat that Monmouth University’s Patrick Murray called “astounding.”



“That defies any rule in presidential politics that I’ve ever seen,” Murray, the director Monmouth’s Polling Institute, told The Hill.


Trump’s favorability rose from 20 percent to 52 percent among Republican voters between July and August, Monmouth found.


While a later CNN/ORC Poll did not find a similar shift in Trump’s favorability, the Monmouth data was yet another sign that he is a candidate to be reckoned with.


“Throw out the rulebook when it comes to Trump, that’s not even in the parameters of what we see as unusual,” Murray insisted.

...

[Kathianne]

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/08/27/synergy-ted-cruz-invites-donald-trump-to-speak-at-d-c-rally-to-stop-the-iran-deal/


Synergy: Ted Cruz invites Donald Trump to speak at D.C. rally to stop the Iran deal

POSTED AT 5:21 PM ON AUGUST 27, 2015 BY ALLAHPUNDIT


Nothing’s going to stop this diplomatic fiasco from being implemented (http://hotair.com/archives/2015/08/27/no-veto-senate-dems-might-get-enough-votes-to-filibuster-gops-attempt-to-block-iran-deal/) so it’s not worth asking whether Trump’s appearance at the rally will help or hurt the effort. Put it this way: His opposition will do no more to alienate Democrats who are on the fence than Dick Cheney’s will (http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/25/politics/dick-cheney-iran-deal-speech-aei/).

Let’s simply ask instead whether the participants will benefit politically. Cruz? Definitely. Trump? Sure. It’s a win/win. (http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2015/08/ted-cruz-invites-donald-trump-to-speak-at-anti-iran-deal-rally-at-capitol.html/) That’s the art of the deal.

...

[Black Diamond]

Doesn't make any difference. Here Obama has the votes necessary to load Iran's nuclear revolver