Does Anyone Understand Greece and EU? [Archive] - Debate Policy

Kathianne

06-28-2015, 08:38 AM

I can't get a handle on it, econ never was my strong suit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11702481/Greece-European-Central-Bank-Capital-Controls.html

The Greek government is refusing to submit to pressure to shut down its banks as early as Monday morning as the country is days away from crashing out of the eurozone.

Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis said on Twitter he was fundamentally opposed to carrying out draconian measures such as enforcing bank holidays and restricting access to cash.

"Capital controls within a monetary union are a contradiction in terms. The Greek government opposes the very concept," Mr Varoufakis said on Twitter.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/06/28/business/economy-business/rift-with-greece-sends-european-union-into-uncharted-territory/#.VY_3MHqUzGd

...

After five months of halting negotiations with a Greek government elected to end the pain of austerity measures, EU leaders left a summit in Brussels on Friday believing that a deal was close to roll over bailout funding and let Athens meet a repayment to the IMF on Tuesday and further obligations over the coming months.

But Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras provoked consternation by returning home to call a referendum for next Sunday on the offer and urging voters, weary of years of debt crises, to reject it.

“Tsipras messed up,” one EU official said. “We did everything possible. They chose to blow up when we were so close to settling this in a way that would allow them to sell it.”

Amid political drama in Greece, where a clear majority wants to remain inside the bloc, the next few days present a major challenge to the integrity of the 16-year-old currency bloc, which many blame for massive unemployment in countries outside Germany and its neighbors in the richer north and west of Europe.

“We must do everything we can to fight any conceivable threat of contagion,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said after a meeting at which the group effectively called for capital controls to ring-fence Greek banks that are hemorrhaging cash.

While acknowledging that only Greece — or possibly banks themselves — can instigate such a shutdown, the ministers said the European Central Bank should use its powers to stabilize markets.

“You have to count on Greece getting into acute problems in the coming days because of this decision,” said Schaeuble, some of whose conservative allies have made no secret of preferring to see Greece forced out of the eurozone. “That is difficult, as we do not know how it will live up to its commitments.”

He and others, however, stressed their faith in stability mechanisms put in place after skepticism among investors pushed the eurozone to breaking point following a run of national bankruptcy scares in the wake of the global crash of 2008.

Schaeuble, echoing his French Socialist counterpart, Michel Sapin, insisted after the fifth such deadlocked ministerial meeting in just over a week, “Greece remains a member of the eurozone, and Greece remains part of Europe.”

But few EU leaders now trust this Greek government, whose calls for debt relief and criticisms of the bailout’s deadening effect on growth have been echoed by some leading economists.

...

Many articles speak of 'contagion' not being allowed to spread; anyone know what this means?

Kathianne

06-28-2015, 08:43 AM

I think some answers will be coming shortly:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2015/06/28/greece-could-overshadow-jobs-and-fed/29320193/

<section id="module-position-OOdAMvzLHfE" class="storytopbar-bucket story-headline-module" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 17.9200000762939px;">Greece crisis could overshadow jobs, Fed

</section>http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/dd8b1baf67130a1edc52e1868cb7f1ece5f42a54/r=26&c=26x26/local/-/media/USATODAY/staff/images/writer_markets-Shell_Adam.png Adam Shell (http://www.usatoday.com/staff/611/adam-shell/), USA TODAY5 a.m. EDT June 28, 2015

Markets will likely be on edge when trading resumes Monday, as the Greek debt saga will likely drag into the new week regardless of this weekend's make-or-break meeting between Athens and the institutions it owes money to. Tuesday's deadline will be tough for Greece to meet even if a deal does get done, as it must still be approved by its parliament, which leaves little time.

"Like it or not, the biggest story set to impact the markets next week is Greece," argues Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank.

With a June 30 debt payment looming, investors are preparing for a "binary outcome," Ablin told USA TODAY.

"Will Greece make the necessary concessions to their lenders and stay with the eurozone, or will talks break down and Greece defaults on its debts and leaves the monetary union? It's possible the answer is somewhat more nuanced. There may be a middle ground, but we'll certainly find out next week."

While Greece is front and center in the news, the Fed story is a big one, too. Record low interest rates have been a key driver of the stock market bull run, and signs of coming rate hikes could also rattle investors....

Markets will likely be on edge when trading resumes Monday, as the Greek debt saga will likely drag into the new week regardless of this weekend's make-or-break meeting between Athens and the institutions it owes money to. Tuesday's deadline will be tough for Greece to meet even if a deal does get done, as it must still be approved by its parliament, which leaves little time.

"Like it or not, the biggest story set to impact the markets next week is Greece," argues Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank.

With a June 30 debt payment looming, investors are preparing for a "binary outcome," Ablin told USA TODAY.

"Will Greece make the necessary concessions to their lenders and stay with the eurozone, or will talks break down and Greece defaults on its debts and leaves the monetary union? It's possible the answer is somewhat more nuanced. There may be a middle ground, but we'll certainly find out next week."

While Greece is front and center in the news, the Fed story is a big one, too. Record low interest rates have been a key driver of the stock market bull run, and signs of coming rate hikes could also rattle investors.

...

tailfins

06-28-2015, 08:48 AM

I can't get a handle on it, econ never was my strong suit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11702481/Greece-European-Central-Bank-Capital-Controls.html

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/06/28/business/economy-business/rift-with-greece-sends-european-union-into-uncharted-territory/#.VY_3MHqUzGd

Many articles speak of 'contagion' not being allowed to spread; anyone know what this means?

The Euro is the glue that holds the EU together. If the Greek banks fail, it puts the EU in a position of giving Greece a blank check for unlimited spending using the money from other countries. The EU has two choices: Give Greece any amount of money it asks for or exclude Greece from the Euro currency.

Drummond

06-28-2015, 11:11 AM

Tailfins has accurately covered a large part of the problem. This is how I (and our pundits) see it ...

Greece is now suffering the result of many years of irresponsibility in terms of the handling of its own economy. There are a number of reasons that's true .. highly inefficent, slapdash collection of taxation being one of them. Greece has been living in a cloud-cuckooland, delusionary state for a remarkably long time.

It's joined the Euro (in my view, it never should have been allowed to, but there y'go ..). It's dragging the Euro down, and everybody knows it is. Bailout after bailout has had to be arranged, to keep the illusion of 'business as normal - we can all easily cope' alive. This has been necessary, not least because investors, currency speculators & the like, need to believe in that appearance of stability, and its maintenance, as do those who mastermind the illusion need THEM to believe in it.

So, now, a ridiculous situation is fast becoming an impossible one. Just how far do you go, to prop up a totally dysfunctional economy ? How far CAN you go, with funds haemmorhaging out of EU coffers at a rate of knots, a bit like Dracula invading a bloodbank ??

And, 'worse', is the trading aspect. Greece, like every other nation, is interknit with its EU 'partners' in various trade deals and other commerce. Jobs are on the line, in Greece, in all other trading parts of the EU.

So there are enormous incentives to just carry on with the 'everything's at least superficially normal, we can cope' fiction .. even though everyone ALSO knows it's an almighty pile of rubbish ....

Greece knows this. SO ... there's one enormous game of blackmail and bluff going on, at least from the Greek side. 'You cannot afford to let us fail, you MUST find an accommodation that permits the unending projection of fiscal viability for us all' .. that's long been their position.

And I believe the last Greek elections had that in mind. NOW, they've got a bunch of Lefties in charge (... and Lefties are masters of delusionally dysfunctional economic planning, as we in the UK found out, circa 2008-2010 ..). Those Lefties won their election by basically saying .. 'OK, so we've got this lousy debt problem, and the EU is insisting on a draconian austerity programme in order to say they can fund future bailouts. WE WILL BREAK THOSE TERMS, THAT CYCLE, and get much better terms ... BECAUSE THE EU, IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS, WILL HAVE TO AGREE'.

We're apparently, though, at 'crunch' point. WILL the EU buckle, and find ways of extending their current deadline of a payback of 1.5 billion Euros on 30th June .. or not ??

It's beginning to look like they won't .. that the EU is finally climbing out from under the rock it's been living under, it's seeing the light of day, and it WILL NOT let these Lefties blackmail them any further.

This risks forcing Greece into outright bankruptcy, not merely suffering, as of right now, its 'functional dysfunctionality', but outright collapse. They will be booted out of the Euro currency. They'll have to reinstate the Drachma. And ... well, for a while at least, Greece will go through a fiscal hell.

A lot can be said about all this (not least repurcussions for all countries trading with Greece, some with jobs reliant on that trade). For me .. it's the fact of one bunch of Leftie thinkers, who wanted to unify countries under one currency so as to find a way of enhancing their power-base, being blackmailed by another bunch of Lefties, who needed to con their people into believing that they can forever evade the consequences of fiscal irresponsibility.

Or, in summary -- one bunch of power-hungry Lefties being blackmailed by another bunch of power-hungry Lefties. Result ... MELTDOWN, MISERY FOR ALL, AND A BUBBLE OF DELUSION BEING BURST WITH CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES ENSUING.

Perhaps the over-simplified moral behind all this is that Leftieism is politicised insanity.

Regardless, and to put it even more simply ... 'We live in interesting times' ... :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Abbey Marie

06-28-2015, 11:23 AM

Poor Greece. I've heard that a big part of the problem is that government workers are overpaid and do little. (not that that is unique to Greece)

Drummond

06-28-2015, 11:37 AM

Poor Greece. I've heard that a big part of the problem is that government workers are overpaid and do little. (not that that is unique to Greece)

Not meaning to be unduly unkind or judgmental, but you've hit a root cause of Greece's problem, right there. Do as little as you can, for as much of a reward as you can get. 'Money for nothing', basically ...

Getting to grips with the reality that you have to reputably earn what you receive has been a problem for them. The BBC has shown us street interview after street interview of Greeks saying they have complete faith in the people they've just elected to govern them (a bunch of Lefties) .. because their election platform was one of 'We will break the austerity terms the EU has insisted upon'.

A great swathe of political opinion in Greece comes out of the psychology that they can always somehow wangle their way out of the consequences of fiscal responsibility. This coming week may finally show the opposite .. and I think it'll come as quite a shock to Greeks to find out they've been force-fed a whole lot of moonshine by their homegrown Lefties.

.. UNLESS .. the EU caves in, and decides to reach another of its 'accommodations'. I wouldn't put it past them.

For what it's worth ... we in the UK suffered our own force-feeding of Labour's moonshine, 2008 to 2010, with our economy nearly being driven into bankruptcy. Our 2010 election was won by our Conservatives, who, as senior partners in a Conservative-LibDem coalition, DECIDED YEARS AGO TO APPLY THEIR OWN AUSTERITY MEASURES.

Fiscal responsibility, from a Conservative mindset, fixing Socialist IRRESPONSIBILITY. We still have more to achieve, but we're getting there, we are recovering. Last May's election was won courtesy of an electorate thinking very differently to Greece's own. The comparisons couldn't be starker.

NightTrain

06-28-2015, 11:43 AM

Drummond

06-28-2015, 12:37 PM

I just deleted 20 minutes worth of typing after realizing that my 3 paragraphs are summed up in one simple quote :

"The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money."

- a chick named Maggie

... and that 'chick named Maggie', of course, got it right. Fiscal prudence, balancing the books, was a cornerstone of her thinking (.. no doubt from her origins as a daughter of a Grantham shopkeeper ?). You make money from profit, sure, but first the bedrock of financial stability HAS to be in place, and properly established. She knew it. Our Conservatives know it well.

Someday, maybe even our own Lefties, once they've lost a few more elections, may wake up to that reality. Maybe ...

http://www.encyclopedia.com/article-1G2-2591309156/thatcher-margaret-1925.html

Thatcher, Margaret (1925—)

Britain's first female Conservative Party leader and prime minister from 1979 until 1990. Name variations: Margaret Roberts; Mrs. Thatcher; Lady Thatcher. Born Margaret Roberts in Grantham, England, on October 13, 1925; daughter of Alfred Roberts (a shopkeeper and local politician) ..

Noir

06-28-2015, 01:08 PM

Not a promising sign -

http://i80.photobucket.com/albums/j176/jonathan-mcc/C0B1B766-133C-44E0-A8A3-A57DC690154D.png_zpssyusp6ib.jpeg (http://s80.photobucket.com/user/jonathan-mcc/media/C0B1B766-133C-44E0-A8A3-A57DC690154D.png_zpssyusp6ib.jpeg.html)

fj1200

06-29-2015, 02:15 PM

gabosaurus

06-29-2015, 03:19 PM

The Euro is the glue that holds the EU together. If the Greek banks fail, it puts the EU in a position of giving Greece a blank check for unlimited spending using the money from other countries. The EU has two choices: Give Greece any amount of money it asks for or exclude Greece from the Euro currency.

Like NT said in the other thread, you reap what you sow.
A friend of my husband's summed it up well: "Greece has been giving out free ice cream for decades, without paying its suppliers. Now the ice cream makers want their bill settled. You can't overlook your debts forever."
Too many Euro nations want to keep bending. The only same voice is Angela Merkel of Germany, who wants to set a hard line. There is a reason why Germany is the best run government in Europe.

LongTermGuy

06-29-2015, 03:56 PM

Drummond

06-29-2015, 04:05 PM

Like NT said in the other thread, you reap what you sow.
A friend of my husband's summed it up well: "Greece has been giving out free ice cream for decades, without paying its suppliers. Now the ice cream makers want their bill settled. You can't overlook your debts forever."
Too many Euro nations want to keep bending. The only same voice is Angela Merkel of Germany, who wants to set a hard line. There is a reason why Germany is the best run government in Europe.

Yes, Gabby, there is. They're just power-mad ...

I can't, reasonably, do other than concede you're right. Theirs is a powerhouse economy compared with most of the rest of Europe. Still, a part of why Angela Merkel is keen to take a hard line comes down to the fact that Germany is so invested in the success of the Euro .. and they're a main contributor of the funds Greece, up to now, has kept receiving. If she DIDN'T take a hard line, the German people would never forgive her for it. And, why should they, as it's German money that's substantially at stake !

It's interesting. If Greece did go crashing out of the Euro, how much reverberating damage would come out of it ? To what extent would confidence in the Euro's viability be compromised ? Would other nations eventually follow suit ?

That's the trouble with a house of cards - it's way too easily demolished. If the Euro does falter, we in Britain, though also damaged by it, would ride out the storm better than most. I'm not nearly sure that Germany would !

Creation of the Euro was always a stupid idea. 'Fine' if you're a control freak, though ...

Perianne

06-29-2015, 04:42 PM

Yes, Gabby, there is. They're just power-mad ...

I can't, reasonably, do other than concede you're right. Theirs is a powerhouse economy compared with most of the rest of Europe....

I find it interesting that Germany keeps bouncing back over and over to become powerful. Perhaps the rest of Europe, Africa, and South America could learn a few things from them.

Drummond

06-29-2015, 04:56 PM

I find it interesting that Germany keeps bouncing back over and over to become powerful. Perhaps the rest of Europe, Africa, and South America could learn a few things from them.

I think Europe already has. The lesson Germany has taught them is 'Follow our lead if you know what's good for you'.

Here's a bit of pro-Leftie propaganda ...

http://www.debatingeurope.eu/2014/03/04/who-is-martin-schulz/#.VZG-YRtVgSU

The next EU Commission President candidate in our profile series is German MEP Martin Schulz, former leader of the Social Democrats group and the current President of the European Parliament. Herr Schulz was confirmed as the official nominee of the Party of European Socialists last weekend at their party congress in Rome. From humble beginnings as a bookseller who left school without any qualifications, he’s now tipped as one of the favourites to become the next President of the European Commission.

Schulz was born in Hehlrath, near the German city of Aachen, in 1955. Growing up close to the borders with Belgium and the Netherlands, he speaks German, Dutch and French fluently (as well as English, Italian and Spanish). In the 1970s, he took an apprenticeship as a bookseller, and with the help of his brother, put together enough money to open his own bookshop in Würselen, which he ran until 1994.

He had joined the Social Democratic Party of Germany at 19, and had been active as a local Young Socialist chairman. However, his political career really took off in 1987 when he was elected Mayor of Würselen aged 31 (the youngest ever mayor in North Rhine-Westphalia). He later ran for the European Parliament and was elected in 1994, rising quickly through the ranks. He became head of the German group of Social Democrats MEPs in 2000, and by 2009 was Chairman of the Social Democrats group in the European Parliament. In 2012, he was elected by MEPs as the President of the European Parliament.

Schulz says that his number one priority as Commission President would be to create more and better jobs for Europeans. He wants to be able to say in five years time that he has helped to lower youth unemployment and bring an end to unfair wages. He also wants to see the gap shrink between rich and poor EU Member States, as well as fighting tax fraud and making the banking system “safe again”

aboutime

06-29-2015, 05:06 PM

Poor Greece. I've heard that a big part of the problem is that government workers are overpaid and do little. (not that that is unique to Greece)

Abbey. Sad as that sounds. If you've never been to Greece. It's not really a big question there. Truth is....Greece doesn't actually have an industrial base to employ their people. Greece is primarily a Vacation spot/Historic place for people from around the world. So, their primary duties are in the Service trades/entertainment.

Kathianne

06-29-2015, 07:24 PM

I found something sort of like, "Greek Crisis for Dummies":

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/06/29/418639578/if-the-mess-in-greece-is-all-greek-to-you-then-read-this

f The Mess In Greece Is All Greek To You, Then Read This

JUNE 29, 2015 5:18 PM ET

"It was Greek to me."

Shakespeare used that phrase in one of his tragedies to suggest that a complicated matter was beyond understanding.

Many Americans may be muttering those words again as this week's Greek tragedy plays out.

The situation in Athens really is complicated, but it's also important. So let's walk through the basics together, and then consider what it might mean to Americans.

Here's what has happened so far:

— The Greek government has way too much debt, and can't pay its creditors.

— Because Greece is a member of the European Union, leaders from the EU, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been trying to work out a payment plan to keep Greece from becoming a deadbeat.

— They have been pushing Greek leaders to raise taxes and lower expenses, hoping such changes would help the government in Athens to make more debt payments. But the parties have not been able to reach an agreement because the terms would inflict more suffering on Greeks, who already have seen many government cutbacks.

— So the Greek government, faced with a payment of $1.73 billion on Tuesday, said Monday it will miss that deadline. And it has set a referendum for Sunday to allow Greeks to decide for themselves what to do next.

— At the polls, Greeks will tell their government whether to keep working out a repayment plan despite any pain, or continue down the default path, missing more and more payments in coming weeks. Missed payments would open the door for the ECB to let the Greek banks collapse, and for the country to fall out of the eurozone amid economic chaos.

Most economists say a NO vote would have such terrible consequences — including the possibility of a devalued new Greek currency and dramatic erosion of the value of Greek assets — that they can't believe voters would let it happen.

Regardless of Sunday's outcome, Greeks already have suffered terribly. Their banking system is fraying, the tourism industry is eroding and poverty is rising.

But do Americans really have anything at stake here?

Directly, not so much. But indirectly, maybe a great deal.

Those who see no big deal rightly note that Greece's economy is tiny, about the size of Connecticut's. Think about it: other than Kalamata olives, can you recall any product you have bought from Greece? The dollar value of U.S.-Greek trade amounts to a rounding error.

Moreover, the Greek economy has been a mess for five years, giving U.S. investors plenty of time to limit any direct exposure there.

And yet, the indirect impact could be significant. These are some potential effects for us:

A too-strong dollar — If Greece stops using the euro, then maybe other economically weak European countries, like Spain or Italy, also could throw in the towel. That would make the euro's future look less certain, driving down its value and boosting the dollar. When the dollar gets too strong, our exports get more expensive in the global marketplace.

Geopolitical setback — If Greece becomes a weaker state, it could allow Russia to get a firmer hold in the Balkans. Also, Greece is a front-line player in Europe's migrant crisis, so if it reduced its cooperation with the EU, that could make migration matters worse.

IMF loses credibility — The IMF has been providing lots of financial support for Greece, and now stands to lose something like $24 billion in a Greek default. Given that the U.S. is a big supporter of the IMF, that could have an impact on taxpayers.

Increasing investor doubts — If global investors start to lose faith in weaker countries' ability to repay debts, there could be a general flight to safety. In other words, everyone will want to send their cash to the United States and Switzerland, and that would hurt investments in emerging markets in Asia, Latin America and elsewhere, increasing global wealth imbalances.

Tourism disruptions — Travel agents and airlines should be seeing a booming business this summer in Greece. With cheaper jet fuel and a strong dollar, it's a great time to see the Parthenon. But photos of tourists lined up at empty ATMs doesn't exactly put Greece on the top of vacation wish lists.

Tyr-Ziu Saxnot

06-29-2015, 07:30 PM

I can't get a handle on it, econ never was my strong suit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11702481/Greece-European-Central-Bank-Capital-Controls.html

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/06/28/business/economy-business/rift-with-greece-sends-european-union-into-uncharted-territory/#.VY_3MHqUzGd

Many articles speak of 'contagion' not being allowed to spread; anyone know what this means?

They got a mutlti billion dollar hand out and want more! When asked to take austerity measures to curtail the economic woes they balked , yet still demand further aid.
A combination of audacity, greed , stupidity and leftism at its best. :laugh:--Tyr

Drummond

06-29-2015, 08:41 PM

They got a mutlti billion dollar hand out and want more! When asked to take austerity measures to curtail the economic woes they balked , yet still demand further aid.
A combination of audacity, greed , stupidity and leftism at its best. :laugh:--Tyr:clap::clap::clap::clap:

Exactly ! I'm in the position of blaming ALL Greeks. For voting the Lefties in, and being stupid enough to believe their garbage. Also for blaming the Lefties for force-feeding them moonshine, promising that they can break the cycle of austerity they're in, and be expected to get away with it.

Judging by the last BBC report I watched, the EU have said that any negative voting in their upcoming Referendum will see them decide to kick Greece out of the Euro. Greece must face up to its responsibilities or suffer the consequences.

The Referendum promises to be interesting ... WILL the Greek people have realised that their Lefties cannot deliver by that stage, and that they've been lied to ? Having their banks closed for a week might concentrate some minds !

aboutime

06-29-2015, 09:00 PM

:clap::clap::clap::clap:

Exactly ! I'm in the position of blaming ALL Greeks. For voting the Lefties in, and being stupid enough to believe their garbage. Also for blaming the Lefties for force-feeding them moonshine, promising that they can break the cycle of austerity they're in, and be expected to get away with it.

Judging by the last BBC report I watched, the EU have said that any negative voting in their upcoming Referendum will see them decide to kick Greece out of the Euro. Greece must face up to its responsibilities or suffer the consequences.

The Referendum promises to be interesting ... WILL the Greek people have realised that their Lefties cannot deliver by that stage, and that they've been lied to ? Having their banks closed for a week might concentrate some minds !

The biggest fears our WALL STREET has today is, will our falling economy, and growing debt of more than 18 Trillion be the warning signs for the USA's version of the GREECE fiasco?

Anyone who thinks it can't happen in the U.S. or U.K. or anywhere in the EU, probably believes Obama is a country boy from Texas, and his real last name was BUSH.

Drummond

06-29-2015, 09:28 PM

The biggest fears our WALL STREET has today is, will our falling economy, and growing debt of more than 18 Trillion be the warning signs for the USA's version of the GREECE fiasco?

Anyone who thinks it can't happen in the U.S. or U.K. or anywhere in the EU, probably believes Obama is a country boy from Texas, and his real last name was BUSH.

So much of this - maybe way more than it should ? - comes down to perception, what confidence can be felt in a country's economic future.

What Greece's situation amounts to, everyone's very clear about. They've debts they cannot meet. Greece knows it, the EU knows it, world financial centres know it .. Greece's trading partners all know it. But, for ALL that, so much still rides on Greece being willing to do whatever it takes to meet its obligations as responsibly as possible.

The EU is waiting for proof of that. We all are. Horrendous economy aside, with Greece doing its damndest to meet its obligations, and to be SEEN to be, they still have a chance, not a great one, but A chance, at a viable future, IF they change course .. and pronto ! They're very nearly out of time.

The US is different, just because it's such a large economy and is tied into so very much in the world. Is it 'too big to fail' ? I don't know. But considering how the 2008 crash developed, literally EVERYONE will suffer enormously if America itself even THREATENED to go belly-up.

The UK illustrates the 'success story' flipside of the Greece situation. Our position was never quite as bad as Greece's ... but, with another couple of years of Socialist mismanagement, we stood a real chance of heading for Greece's fate (although we are unencumbered by the Euro, giving us an inbuilt edge).

HOWEVER ... the UK's example provides proof of what I've been saying. Our GDP is still in dire straits, relatively speaking, BUT, everyone can see that we've instituted our own austerity measures, and that the beneficial effect of them does exist, and is helping us recover. Our electorate, in May, could've turned their back on those measures, but unlike Greece, we KNEW they're needed, and to keep them in place.

Because we're perceived to be doing the right thing, and with no wavering in sight .. we are, today, very much better off than Greece .. because we're PERCEIVED to be better. Confidence exists in us, and we profit from it.

It'd be a different story if our Conservatives had never had their chance at instituting responsible economic management.

Perception and confidence isn't quite 'all', but it's amazing to think how important it is in the greater scheme of things.

aboutime

06-29-2015, 09:51 PM

So much of this - maybe way more than it should ? - comes down to perception, what confidence can be felt in a country's economic future.

What Greece's situation amounts to, everyone's very clear about. They've debts they cannot meet. Greece knows it, the EU knows it, world financial centres know it .. Greece's trading partners all know it. But, for ALL that, so much still rides on Greece being willing to do whatever it takes to meet its obligations as responsibly as possible.

The EU is waiting for proof of that. We all are. Horrendous economy aside, with Greece doing its damndest to meet its obligations, and to be SEEN to be, they still have a chance, not a great one, but A chance, at a viable future, IF they change course .. and pronto ! They're very nearly out of time.

The US is different, just because it's such a large economy and is tied into so very much in the world. Is it 'too big to fail' ? I don't know. But considering how the 2008 crash developed, literally EVERYONE will suffer enormously if America itself even THREATENED to go belly-up.

The UK illustrates the 'success story' flipside of the Greece situation. Our position was never quite as bad as Greece's ... but, with another couple of years of Socialist mismanagement, we stood a real chance of heading for Greece's fate (although we are unencumbered by the Euro, giving us an inbuilt edge).

HOWEVER ... the UK's example provides proof of what I've been saying. Our GDP is still in dire straits, relatively speaking, BUT, everyone can see that we've instituted our own austerity measures, and that the beneficial effect of them does exist, and is helping us recover. Our electorate, in May, could've turned their back on those measures, but unlike Greece, we KNEW they're needed, and to keep them in place.

Because we're perceived to be doing the right thing, and with no wavering in sight .. we are, today, very much better off than Greece .. because we're PERCEIVED to be better. Confidence exists in us, and we profit from it.

It'd be a different story if our Conservatives had never had their chance at instituting responsible economic management.

Perception and confidence isn't quite 'all', but it's amazing to think how important it is in the greater scheme of things.

Sir Drummond. Understood. But when anyone asks if the USA is too big to fail. That's really not a fair, honest question if you are asking members of Congress, or the President. Of course, none of them will admit it is TOO BIG TO FAIL. Then again, none of them have to worry about not being able to afford living according to THEIR STANDARDS, which are NOT the same standards as common, citizen, taxpayers who know, their children, and grandchildren will be forced to PAY THE HUGE DEBT of Washington Politics that never seems to end.
Americans like me, or non-Politicians are going to be forced to REPAY those TRILLIONS in debt. While the politicians who created the debt by PRINTING MONOPOLY MONEY, have nothing to fear because they will be taken care of, as they VOTED TO DO, while the rest of us suffer.
We are at little more than 18 TRILLION in debt, and the TOO BIG TO FAIL HURDLE ends at 24 TRILLION, where Congress, and Obama seem to be taking us.

Tyr-Ziu Saxnot

06-29-2015, 11:21 PM

Sir Drummond. Understood. But when anyone asks if the USA is too big to fail. That's really not a fair, honest question if you are asking members of Congress, or the President. Of course, none of them will admit it is TOO BIG TO FAIL. Then again, none of them have to worry about not being able to afford living according to THEIR STANDARDS, which are NOT the same standards as common, citizen, taxpayers who know, their children, and grandchildren will be forced to PAY THE HUGE DEBT of Washington Politics that never seems to end.
Americans like me, or non-Politicians are going to be forced to REPAY those TRILLIONS in debt. While the politicians who created the debt by PRINTING MONOPOLY MONEY, have nothing to fear because they will be taken care of, as they VOTED TO DO, while the rest of us suffer.
We are at little more than 18 TRILLION in debt, and the TOO BIG TO FAIL HURDLE ends at 24 TRILLION, where Congress, and Obama seem to be taking us.

Everything is too big to fail--until it does!!!
Then those believing that folly remain mum and pretend they knew better all along.
Too big to sink, --- I say sure----Titanic.. --Tyr

Kathianne

06-30-2015, 09:00 AM

another primer.

A famous Thatcher quote we've seen at DP recently. ;) Certainly the idea that Greece is 'too big to fail,' doesn't come into play, but the lesson shouldn't be lost on others.

I also fail to understand FJ's points about 'stopping the austerity,' in light of this article. Just not seeing where that comes into play, in any significant way.

There is some talk regarding communism/socialism and it's 'got to work sometime' failure.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/420061/greece-default-socialism-doesnt-work

A Greek Default Would Be a Valuable Lesson in Basic Economics

by GEORGE WILL June 20, 2015 8:00 PM

Now come Greeks bearing the gift of confirmation that Margaret Thatcher was right about socialist governments: “They always run out of other people’s money.” Greece, from whose ancient playwrights Western drama descends, is in an absurdist melodrama about securing yet another cash infusion from international creditors. This would add another boulder to a mountain of debt almost twice the size of Greece’s gross domestic product. This protracted dispute will result in desirable carnage if Greece defaults, thereby becoming a constructively frightening example to all democracies doling out unsustainable, growth-suppressing entitlements.

Voters chose Syriza because it promised to reverse reforms, particularly of pensions and labor laws, demanded by creditors, and to resist new demands for rationality. Tsipras immediately vowed to rehire 12,000 government employees. His shrillness increasing as his options contract, he says the European Union, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund are trying to “humiliate” Greece.

How could one humiliate a nation that chooses governments committed to Rumpelstiltskin economics, the belief that the straw of government largesse can be spun into the gold of national wealth? Tsipras’s approach to mollifying those who hold his nation’s fate in their hands is to say they must respect his “mandate” to resist them. He thinks Greek voters, by making delusional promises to themselves, obligate other European taxpayers to fund them. Tsipras, who says the creditors are “pillaging” Greece, is trying to pillage his local governments, which are resisting his extralegal demands that they send him their cash reserves.

...

Since joining the Eurozone in 2001, Greece has borrowed a sum 1.7 times its 2013 GDP. Its 25 percent unemployment (50 percent among young workers) results from a 25 percent shrinkage of GDP. It is a mendicant reduced to hoping to “extend and pretend” forever. But extending the bailout and pretending that creditors will someday be paid encourages other European socialists to contemplate shedding debts — other people’s money that is no longer fun.

Greece, with just 11 million people and 2 percent of the Eurozone’s GDP, is unlikely to cause a contagion by leaving the zone. If it also leaves the misbegotten European Union, this evidence of the EU’s mutability might encourage Britain’s “Euro-skeptics” when, later this year, that nation has a referendum on reclaiming national sovereignty by withdrawing from the EU. If Greece so cherishes its sovereignty that it bristles at conditions imposed by creditors, why is it in the EU, the perverse point of which is to “pool” nations’ sovereignties in order to dilute national consciousness?

...

It cannot be said too often: There cannot be too many socialist smashups. The best of these punish reckless creditors whose lending enables socialists to live, for a while, off other people’s money. The world, which owes much to ancient Athens’s legacy, including the idea of democracy, is indebted to today’s Athens for the reminder that reality does not respect a democracy’s delusions.

tailfins

06-30-2015, 09:13 AM

fj1200

06-30-2015, 09:22 AM

NightTrain

06-30-2015, 09:47 AM

Austerity is the only thing that matters here IMO. That they were lefties and blew up their own economy is not surprising but they've been subsidized for years by the global lending community including the IMF and EU. Whining about socialists and socialism is diverting from how Greece can move forward. The bailout 5? years ago tried to get them to move away from their socialist background by trying to get them to collect taxes more effectively and not have a top heavy bureaucracy which is fine as far as that goes but it also imposed crushing taxes on the private sector.

More austerity, raising taxes and lowering spending, will crush them even further so what is the preferred outcome here. Force Greek "lefties" to do something because Germany and the IMF say so? Give Greece options moving forward?

Simpy whining about lefties doesn't really do anything here.

Well, first you have to diagnose the problem before you can move forward with fixing it. In this case, socialism.

It appears abundantly clear that the Greeks haven't diagnosed their problem even though they've been in a nosedive for years now.

Crushing their private sector with taxes is counter productive - that is the engine that provides the revenue, as we all know. They don't want to give up all the 'free' stuff and stubbornly think that the business owner down the street will be able to provide for them all.

fj1200

06-30-2015, 12:16 PM

Well, first you have to diagnose the problem before you can move forward with fixing it. In this case, socialism.

It appears abundantly clear that the Greeks haven't diagnosed their problem even though they've been in a nosedive for years now.

Crushing their private sector with taxes is counter productive - that is the engine that provides the revenue, as we all know. They don't want to give up all the 'free' stuff and stubbornly think that the business owner down the street will be able to provide for them all.

There are many problems and just focusing on "Aack socialists" misses the point of where a solution will lie. And they've gotten themselves/were forced (take your pick) into a much worse position after they were "encouraged" to scale back on their massive bureaucracy for more cash. Their current nose dive wasn't of the Greek leftists choosing.

The Greeks have far more problems than just being on the left but I think you misdiagnose the attitude of the man-on-the-street. I think they need to tell the austerity-ites to go pound sand and reiterate that the Euro will still be their defacto currency.

Kathianne

06-30-2015, 12:58 PM

There are many problems and just focusing on "Aack socialists" misses the point of where a solution will lie. And they've gotten themselves/were forced (take your pick) into a much worse position after they were "encouraged" to scale back on their massive bureaucracy for more cash. Their current nose dive wasn't of the Greek leftists choosing.

The Greeks have far more problems than just being on the left but I think you misdiagnose the attitude of the man-on-the-street. I think they need to tell the austerity-ites to go pound sand and reiterate that the Euro will still be their defacto currency.

I really don't think they're going to have the option to do what you suggest. It pretty much looks like they have until Saturday to agree with a 'yes' vote or will be removed from Euro.

fj1200

06-30-2015, 02:15 PM

I really don't think they're going to have the option to do what you suggest. It pretty much looks like they have until Saturday to agree with a 'yes' vote or will be removed from Euro.

They definitely have that option; There are plenty of countries who effectively use the currency of another nation, even without permission. Can they get kicked out of the EU? I don't know the answer to that but I've heard that there is no method of expelling a country.

Greece’s new government has been pondering how and when to default on the mountain of debt it has inherited, which now exceeds 175% of GDP. For some reason, this supposedly entails “leaving the eurozone,” and possibly introducing a new, independent floating currency, perhaps reviving the name “drachma.

”But is this necessary? It is not necessary at all. A “default” just means not paying some money back. This does not require a government to issue a new currency, just as a homeowner who defaults on a mortgage obligation is not required to issue a new currency. You “just walk away,” which is perhaps even easier on the sovereign level, since the debt is not collateralized.

In other words, most everything would remain the same: Greece would still be part of the eurozone, and still use the euro. The only difference is that some people would not get paid on their debt, no different than a debt default by a corporation or individual, which already happens every day in the eurozone.

But let’s assume that, in a fit of pique, the European Central Bank and other monetary institutions do decide to exclude Greek institutions from the official eurozone system, and in one way or another refuse to play nice and “kick Greece out of the eurozone,” whatever that means in practical terms.

What then? Greece could continue to use the euro. It would join ten other small states and territories that use euros exclusively, without being part of the eurozone. These include Andorra, Monaco, and Montenegro. At least ten countries have a similar policy, but use the dollar instead, including Panama and Ecuador, which dollarized in 2000. Ecuador’s government defaulted on its sovereign debt in 2008, but continued to use the dollar afterwards. So, we see that debt default, and the choice of currency in use, don’t really have much to do with each other at all.

Five countries use New Zealand dollars exclusively; three use Australian dollars; and one (Lesotho) uses South African rands exclusively. Liechtenstein uses Swiss francs.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2015/02/26/greeces-monetary-options/

If Puerto Rico defaults they will still use the dollar and be a territory.

Drummond

06-30-2015, 02:49 PM

I really don't think they're going to have the option to do what you suggest. It pretty much looks like they have until Saturday to agree with a 'yes' vote or will be removed from Euro.

From everything I'm hearing from our own media, Kathianne, I think you're spot on. The EU has reached the crunch point where they simply cannot let Greece backslide any further. Greece has to show it'll do everything possible to meet the terms it, after all, AGREED to meet before.

Of course, their ruling Lefties are trying (or have tried, it seems abortively so) to blackmail the EU into relaxing those previously-agreed conditions, because, of course, Leftieism and the discipline of fiscal responsibility typically just don't mix. They convinced their gullible electorate that it could be done. Result: banks closed for at least a week, and ruination looming.

I'm aware that Conservative principles are rooted in capitalistic dynamism, that you generate wealth first and foremost and value entrepreneurial spirit. HOWEVER, that presupposes the pre-existing bedrock of stability upon which such an economic edifice can be run. If it doesn't exist, then you're down to damage limitation as a precursor of stepping forward to a later stage of growth and prosperity. Austerity packages are that solution, and Greece MUST learn that.

You have to learn how to walk before you can try to run. To walk, you need to balance. [I]Greece, and its Leftie-inspired outlook, doesn't even possess the willingness to adhere to a discipline leading to balance. This needs to change. If it doesn't, their reckless, escapist Leftieism will ruin them.

They can look to the UK's Conservative-led example of success if they remain unconvinced that such lessons apply, and must be implemented.

Drummond

06-30-2015, 03:03 PM

Everything is too big to fail--until it does!!!
Then those believing that folly remain mum and pretend they knew better all along.
Too big to sink, --- I say sure----Titanic.. --Tyr

Part of the debate we had in the UK, circa 2008, involved whether some of our own banks were so big, so vital to our economy, that they had to be kept afloat, no matter what the cost. Our Lefties followed through with massive bailouts, made from the assumption that no other choice existed.

Here, it wasn't the equivalent of the American experience, where at least a vote was taken to sanction the action. No, here, Gordon Brown just ordered it done, by taking certain banks into partial public ownership ('nationalisation' by the back door - any excuse, eh ?).

In 2010, the incoming Conservative/LibDem Coalition inherited the resulting Godawful mess. The now-famous note left by an outgoing Leftie was discovered, saying 'there's no more money left .. sorry'. We as a nation have been trying to recover ever since, NOT through more unrestrained reckless spending, but through the rigid controls that our austerity measures involve.

Kathianne

06-30-2015, 09:29 PM

They definitely have that option; There are plenty of countries who effectively use the currency of another nation, even without permission. Can they get kicked out of the EU? I don't know the answer to that but I've heard that there is no method of expelling a country.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2015/02/26/greeces-monetary-options/

If Puerto Rico defaults they will still use the dollar and be a territory.

Where do they get their Euros from? Between the EU Council/Banks/IMF it seems nearly certain that Greece can't get more, unless they are minted in Greece.

Balu

06-30-2015, 09:58 PM

Where do they get their Euros from? Between the EU Council/Banks/IMF it seems nearly certain that Greece can't get more, unless they are minted in Greece.
As far as I know every EU country is authorized to emit Euros within the frames of own quota which is determined byECB.

Kathianne

06-30-2015, 10:21 PM

As far as I know every EU country is authorized to emit Euros within the frames of own quota which is determined byECB.
Which was my point, they can keep the euros from Greece.

Kathianne

06-30-2015, 10:31 PM

Interesting on the geopolitical front. Not so much about 'too big or small,' rather location, location, location:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB11486026120286184909004581077960515036484

The Greek Crisis Is About More Than Money

Greece was critical to the Cold War policy of Soviet containment. It is no less so in the age of Putin.

By ROBERT D. KAPLAN

<time class="timestamp" style="margin: 0px 0px 4px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: 'Whitney SSm', sans-serif; display: block; line-height: 2.2rem; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); background: 0px 0px;">Updated June 30, 2015 7:40 p.m. ET

</time>Geopolitics can be more important than economics. Just look at Greece. On purely economic grounds, Greece should never have been admitted to the European Union in 1981 and might have been ejected from the eurozone months ago.

But what many European policy makers know—even if few articulate it—is that Europe will be increasingly vulnerable to Russian aggression if its links to Greece are substantially loosened. Greece is the only part of the Balkans accessible on several seaboards to the Mediterranean, and thus is a crucial gateway to and from the West.

Given the bellicosity of Russian President Vladimir Putin (http://topics.wsj.com/person/P/Vladimir-Putin/6409), it is useful to contemplate what would have happened had Stalin not ceded Greece to the West in return for the rest of the Balkans at the start of the Cold War. With Greece inside the Communist bloc, Italy would have been permanently endangered, to say nothing of the whole eastern Mediterranean and the Levant. Indeed, American bases in Greece were critical to the policy of containment.

But Greece, in terms of its politics and culture, is not fully anchored in the West. Greece is more properly viewed as the child of Byzantine and Ottoman despotism than of Periclean Athens. The mid-19th century revolutions in Europe were often of bourgeois origins with political liberties as their goal. Yet the Greek independence movement was more of an ethnic movement with a religious basis. Greece, by virtue of its Eastern Orthodox Christianity, has an emotional and spiritual bond with Russia. This helps explain why most Greeks sided with Russia in favor of the Serbs and against Europe during the 1999 Kosovo War, even if the Greek government’s position was more equivocal.

...

Drummond

06-30-2015, 10:59 PM

Where do they get their Euros from? Between the EU Council/Banks/IMF it seems nearly certain that Greece can't get more, unless they are minted in Greece.

Our own media are saying the same. Greece's default now means that nobody else will be willing to lend to them.

Why would they, anyway ? It's not as though Greece could expect to go to the country-equivalent of 'loan sharks', who'd charge a ridiculous amount of interest. An inability to pay means an inability to pay. Where Greece is concerned ... even an UNWILLINGNESS to, from certain quarters ..

What good would it do to mint Euros in Greece, when there's nothing to shore up the value of them ? Printing money as you see fit is an excellent way of creating runaway inflation, as Germany experienced after WW I --

http://alphahistory.com/weimarrepublic/1923-hyperinflation/

The Weimar government’s decision to subsidise a general strike in the Ruhr had a devastating impact on an already depleted German economy. In 1922 the ministry ordered increased print runs of banknotes, in order to stimulate the economy and pay striking industrial workers in the Ruhr. Government economists understood the dangers of flooding the economy with paper money; it was intended as a temporary measure rather than a long-term policy.

But as the French occupation and the Ruhrkampf continued into the summer and autumn of 1923, the government could find no alternative means of responding to the crisis. The 1923 hyperinflation was the result of paper money being pumped into the economy to such an extent that it became effectively worthless. The effects this had on German society were disruptive for many and utterly disastrous for some.

Besides, if Greece actually tried it, would it constitute bogus currency ? DOES Greece have a free hand to produce Euros, which is, after all, NOT just ONE COUNTRY's currency, but a SHARED currency, according to local preference ? All Euros produced should be equally valid in ALL countries adopting that currency .. but, with some around produced by a country lacking any way to attribute real value to them .....

The UK's Royal Mint, by the way, produces currency for economic systems other than Britain's own ....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Mint

As well as minting coins for the UK, the Royal Mint also mints and exports coins to many other countries and produces military medals, commemorative medals, and other such items for governments, schools and businesses, being known as the world's leading exporting mint. Responsibility for the security of the site falls to the Ministry of Defence Police, who provide an armed contingent.

Drummond

06-30-2015, 11:03 PM

As far as I know every EU country is authorized to emit Euros within the frames of own quota which is determined byECB.

[Saw your post, Balu, only after posting my own, above. Thanks for it, by the way]

I thought as much. It just didn't make sense to suppose that any one country could produce quantities of currency of their own choice, not when that currency is shared. If they DID have free rein to flood the EU with it, it would give a Member State an ability to sabotage the Euro's very viability.

Balu

06-30-2015, 11:11 PM

Our own media are saying the same. Greece's default now means that nobody else will be willing to lend to them. (*)

Why would they, anyway ? It's not as though Greece could expect to go to the country-equivalent of 'loan sharks', who'd charge a ridiculous amount of interest. An inability to pay means an inability to pay. Where Greece is concerned ... even an UNWILLINGNESS to, from certain quarters ..

What good would it do to mint Euros in Greece, when there's nothing to shore up the value of them ? Printing money as you see fit is an excellent way of creating runaway inflation, as Germany experienced after WW I --

http://alphahistory.com/weimarrepublic/1923-hyperinflation/

Besides, if Greece actually tried it, would it constitute bogus currency ? DOES Greece have a free hand to produce Euros, which is, after all, NOT just ONE COUNTRY's currency, but a SHARED currency, according to local preference ? All Euros produced should be equally valid in ALL countries adopting that currency .. but, with some around produced by a country lacking any way to attribute real value to them .....

The UK's Royal Mint, by the way, produces currency for economic systems other than Britain's own ....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Mint

(*) Really? - I don't think so. 15-20 billion is not a great money for the beginning, subject to terms and conditions.
Besides, Greece is one of the most attractive countries for international tourism. http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/standart/smile3.gif

Drummond

06-30-2015, 11:33 PM

(*) Really? - I don't think so. 15-20 billion is not a great money for the beginning, subject to terms and conditions.
Besides, Greece is one of the most attractive country for international tourism. http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/standart/smile3.gif

Well, that's what our people are saying, Balu - see below. I think, apart from practicalities involved, there's a certain shock value to an 'advanced' world currency so badly failing.

Then there's the corruption angle. Some of Greece's difficulty has come about from sheer wanton irresponsibility. A lender will want to trust the people being lent to. On what basis would Greece be trusted ?

Greece's current difficulty has been its very failure to meet the terms and conditions set for it, by failing to meet its pre-agreed deadline (and it's been granted leeway before, in any case). It has defaulted in meeting what was agreed. Why should this encourage trust from another lender ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33339363

This is not how international diplomacy or finance is supposed to be conducted: a series of confusing last minute proposals in an atmosphere of mounting chaos.

Without another bailout, Greece is in dire straits - cut off from all international financing, and skating on dangerously thin ice.

If it can't repay a debt to the ECB on 20 July, that would probably be the end. It is running out of options to keep it in the eurozone.

Part of the new deal Greece has suggested would involve a restructuring of its huge debts - but some of its proposals will not be acceptable to other eurozone countries. So there is uncertainty at every turn, and plenty of public posturing as Greece prepares for a referendum on Sunday.

Balu

07-01-2015, 12:28 AM

Well, that's what our people are saying, Balu - see below. I think, apart from practicalities involved, there's a certain shock value to an 'advanced' world currency so badly failing.

Then there's the corruption angle. Some of Greece's difficulty has come about from sheer wanton irresponsibility. A lender will want to trust the people being lent to. On what basis would Greece be trusted ?

Greece's current difficulty has been its very failure to meet the terms and conditions set for it, by failing to meet its pre-agreed deadline (and it's been granted leeway before, in any case). It has defaulted in meeting what was agreed. Why should this encourage trust from another lender ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33339363

- "Advanced world currencies" is a very interesting topic to speak about, especially after 1965, when after the friendly visit of the French vessel with tons of dollars aboard to the USA with the aim to exchange the paper for gold, in 1972 post-war Bretton Woods system ruined; the recent American tricks with golden plated tungsten bricks, the USA intended to foist to Chinese, and the USA rejecting to return back the Golden Stock of Germany - all these looking to the amount of American internal and external dept gives an interesting picture.
- It depends. IMF has its own position, when speaking about Ukraine. I suspect they have some OTHER prevailing reasons.
- This is a question of terms and conditions. I think that those, which Greece had are not suitable for this country.

How do you like THESE Commie propaganda? http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/standart/smile3.gif

Kathianne

07-01-2015, 05:43 AM

Kathianne

07-01-2015, 07:44 AM

Update, seems EU and Greece have been busy:

http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/30/news/economy/greece-in-two-minutes/?iid=EL

1) Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is now ready to accept most of the terms of a bailout (http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/01/news/economy/greece-bailout-concessions/index.html?iid=EL)he rejected at the weekend. But this won't fix the crisis any time soon: That offer expired Tuesday, it will take weeks to negotiate a new rescue (http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/30/news/economy/greece-imf-default/index.html?iid=EL), and Greece may need a new government first.

2) European finance officials will meet at 11.30 am ET to discuss Greece's desperate plea for more cash. But one official told CNN that any new rescue may require tougher conditions. Broadly, Europe wants Greece to cut the amount it has promised in pensions and raise additional taxes.

3) Greece officially missed its $1.7 billion payment (http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/30/news/economy/greece-imf-default/index.html?iid=surge-toplead-dom)to the International Monetary Fund at 6 pm ET on Tuesday. It's the first developed country to do so. Greece has been living on borrowed money for a while now, and time has run out.

4) Global financial markets jumped Wednesday on the dramatic about-face from Athens. They were calm Tuesday despite the IMF default. That's because most of Greece's debt (http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/28/investing/greek-debt-who-has-most-to-lose/?iid=EL) is owed to big European institutions and other eurozone countries, not banks, so default shouldn't crash through the global financial system.

5) German Chancellor Angela Merkel said (http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/30/news/economy/greece-imf-default/index.html?iid=EL) Tuesday the "door is still open for dialogue."

6) It's now unclear whether a popular vote in Greece will go ahead as planned on July 5. Tsipras had been urging Greeks to vote against the terms he has now largely accepted.

7) If the people vote "No," it seems to mean that they do not want to consider a bailout. Chaos would ensue as proceedings likely begin for how to leave the euro, and return to the drachma.

8) If the people vote "Yes," it generally means that they want to stay in the eurozone. New terms would need to be negotiated.

9) Greece has another big payment due on July 20, this one to the European Central Bank. The ECB meets Wednesday to decide how much support to continue pumping into Greek banks.

10) Greek banks are still closed (http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/28/news/economy/greece-banks-ecb/?iid=EL). That's to prevent people from withdrawing all their cash, which the banks couldn't possibly honor. Daily withdrawals are limited to 60 euros, or about $67.

11) Oh, Greece is pretty much in a Depression, with the economy having dropped by a quarter (http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/23/news/economy/greece-crisis-gdp/?iid=EL) in the past few years, and an unemployment rate above 25%.

fj1200

07-01-2015, 09:03 AM

Where do they get their Euros from? Between the EU Council/Banks/IMF it seems nearly certain that Greece can't get more, unless they are minted in Greece.

The same way Panamanians get dollars to use. You don't think any merchant wouldn't love to take Euros or dollars in lieu of a drachma that is destined to lose value over time? I can see why Greece would like to issue Drachmas the least of which allows them to pass on their expected years of economic mismanagement to the citizens by the phantom tax of inflation.

fj1200

07-01-2015, 09:04 AM

As far as I know every EU country is authorized to emit Euros within the frames of own quota which is determined byECB.

Who knew that Greece had their own mint.

Which was my point, they can keep the euros from Greece.

No they can't. We can't keep dollars from Zimbabwe or from Mexican drug dealers.

fj1200

07-01-2015, 09:14 AM

... but through the rigid controls that our austerity measures involve.

British "austerity" is nothing compared to Greek austerity.

Max R.

07-01-2015, 09:31 AM

(*) Really? - I don't think so. 15-20 billion is not a great money for the beginning, subject to terms and conditions.
Besides, Greece is one of the most attractive countries for international tourism. http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/standart/smile3.gif
It won't be if their government collapses and there is no money to pay police and other security measures. It won't be if the courts become corrupted with bribes.

Max R.

07-01-2015, 09:32 AM

Who knew that Greece had their own mint.

No they can't. We can't keep dollars from Zimbabwe or from Mexican drug dealers.
True, but we don't have to loan them dollars just like we loan legal investors.

fj1200

07-01-2015, 09:38 AM

True, but we don't have to loan them dollars just like we loan legal investors.

I'm pretty sure we don't loan any money to Zimbabwe or drug dealers (Rev? :laugh: ) and they still utilize our currency. Dollars are used the world over and we benefit from it. See seigniorage.

And I don't think we should loan to them. damn lefties. ;)

Max R.

07-01-2015, 10:12 AM

I'm pretty sure we don't loan any money to Zimbabwe or drug dealers (Rev? :laugh: ) and they still utilize our currency. Dollars are used the world over and we benefit from it. See seigniorage.

And I don't think we should loan to them. damn lefties. ;)
Agreed they can use the currency. After Greece defaults, the Euro may be the only currency of value in that country. A few small countries don't have their own currency so they use the US dollar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_substitution

Countries using the US dollar exclusively

British Virgin Islands.
Caribbean Netherlands (from 1 January 2011)
East Timor (uses its own coins)
Ecuador (uses its own coins in addition to U.S. coins; Ecuador adopted the US dollar as its legal tender in 2000.)
El Salvador.
Marshall Islands.

DragonStryk72

07-01-2015, 10:19 AM

I can't get a handle on it, econ never was my strong suit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11702481/Greece-European-Central-Bank-Capital-Controls.html

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/06/28/business/economy-business/rift-with-greece-sends-european-union-into-uncharted-territory/#.VY_3MHqUzGd

Many articles speak of 'contagion' not being allowed to spread; anyone know what this means?

Imagine it like this: NY starts spending like they've got an economy 20X bigger than the one they have, and continues doing so, covering it up from the fed thru various means until the inevitable happens, and they hit the wall. Not only would the NY economy tank, but anything attached to the US dollar, since that is the currency in use. The fed steps in and helps initially, but NY literally refuses to fix their economy, almost doubling down on the tactics they know aren't work currently.

Now when NY collapses, it's almost certain to collapse all the surrounding states who've become reliant on the NY economy, and the dominoes begin to fall

Max R.

07-01-2015, 10:37 AM

Imagine it like this: NY starts spending like they've got an economy 20X bigger than the one they have, and continues doing so, covering it up from the fed thru various means until the inevitable happens, and they hit the wall. Not only would the NY economy tank, but anything attached to the US dollar, since that is the currency in use. The fed steps in and helps initially, but NY literally refuses to fix their economy, almost doubling down on the tactics they know aren't work currently.

Now when NY collapses, it's almost certain to collapse all the surrounding states who've become reliant on the NY economy, and the dominoes begin to fall
Disagreed. Puerto Rico collapsing would harm US investors more than Greece. A lot of this is simple fear ruling people's senses; people afraid of what might happen.

Will it hurt if Greece implodes? Yes. Would it hurt if they kept spending like a frivolous housewife with a brand new checkbook? Yes.
Investors can't keep throwing good money after bad. Greece needs to shape up or ship out. Investing is a gamble. Usually an educated gamble, but still a gamble. People bet on markets either rising or falling short. The world will still turn and the human race will survive a collapse of Greece's socialistic excesses.

fj1200

07-01-2015, 11:12 AM

Agreed they can use the currency. After Greece defaults, the Euro may be the only currency of value in that country. A few small countries don't have their own currency so they use the US dollar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_substitution

Glad we agree. ;) :poke:

Imagine it like this: NY starts spending like they've got an economy 20X bigger than the one they have, and continues doing so, covering it up from the fed thru various means until the inevitable happens, and they hit the wall. Not only would the NY economy tank, but anything attached to the US dollar, since that is the currency in use. The fed steps in and helps initially, but NY literally refuses to fix their economy, almost doubling down on the tactics they know aren't work currently.

Now when NY collapses, it's almost certain to collapse all the surrounding states who've become reliant on the NY economy, and the dominoes begin to fall

Actually it's more like Westchester not collecting enough taxes to fund their government and running up massive debt on the backs of other New Yorkers and their economy dropping in the crapper when NY finally says they should increase taxes and cut spending. The spiral is when Yonkers and Staten Island get up the gumption to do exactly what Westchester does by telling them to go pound sand. Will NY be harmed? Not really because those cities are a very small part of the pie. The question is would it expose some sort of mismanagement of the Neuro? Unlikely IMO. I think the flaw it potentially exposes is on the part of the EU itself and how do they deal with dead beat countries coexisting with "profitable" ones.

Drummond

07-01-2015, 01:22 PM

It won't be if their government collapses and there is no money to pay police and other security measures. It won't be if the courts become corrupted with bribes.

... and it definitely wouldn't be an attractive tourist destination, if their Air Traffic Control people don't get paid, and so don't turn up for work, and flights to and from Greece are halted. Nor if airlines can't rely on airport staff servicing their flights, from baggage control, to aircraft maintenance and refuelling.

Drummond

07-01-2015, 01:34 PM

Interesting, you did read the article from WSJ I linked to? Methinks that maybe Balu's warning as it were.

Thanks, I have now. I'm not sure of its relevance to today's situation. But still, maybe Greece thinks it can (however behind the scenes, or as something hinted) play Russia against the EU, saying that if you force us to be distant from you, well, maybe Russia will be predisposed to be kind to us.

I actually think - even if Greece itself might not - that the EU is more grounded in fiscal practicalities, right now, than maybe even Greece believes.

As for Europe being more open or subject to Russian aggression .. they are in any case, thanks to the Russian supply of gas to other European countries. This is its own issue, surely unconnected to geopolitical gamesmanship involving Greece.

Happily, I'm confident that the EU has more backbone to stand up to Russia when it counts, than Russia itself doubtless believes.

Drummond

07-01-2015, 01:43 PM

Agreed they can use the currency. After Greece defaults, the Euro may be the only currency of value in that country. A few small countries don't have their own currency so they use the US dollar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_substitution

Countries using the US dollar exclusively

British Virgin Islands.
Caribbean Netherlands (from 1 January 2011)
East Timor (uses its own coins)
Ecuador (uses its own coins in addition to U.S. coins; Ecuador adopted the US dollar as its legal tender in 2000.)
El Salvador.
Marshall Islands.

How plentiful will the money supply be, regardless of currency ? Banks in Greece - had they not closed ! - were in danger of running out of money within just a handful of days.

If you're going to use alternative currencies, you have to purchase it. Or somehow usefully trade to obtain it. Trading presupposes a viability of those trading to function in a fracturing infrastructure.

Drummond

07-01-2015, 01:58 PM

I watched a BBC report (it's an annoying habit that I need to break myself of) a little while ago.

What they report of the current status quo seems to be contradictory, and apparently the EU regards Greek conduct, right now, as insulting.

On the one hand, the Greek PM said he was wiling to accept 'most' of the conditions the EU had offered. Not all, just 'most'.

Then the payment deadline expired.

Since then, the Greek side has offered new proposals. On the EU side, their position is that they cannot discuss further proposals, or further repositionings, until after this Sunday's Greek Referendum.

The Greek PM has now recommended that the Referendum produce a 'NO' vote. Their Finance Ministry building has actually been displaying a message on its outside walls, to passers-by, saying that the Greek people should also vote 'NO.

So, the EU, as of right now, is in the position of not being able to trust the Greek side. Greek Lefties, being Lefties, have reverted to form, showing hostility towards EU fiscal restrictiveness.

It remains to be seen just how successful Greece's Left wing will be in sabotaging Greece as an even NOMINALLY viable Nation State.

It's What They Do.

DragonStryk72

07-01-2015, 04:00 PM

How plentiful will the money supply be, regardless of currency ? Banks in Greece - had they not closed ! - were in danger of running out of money within just a handful of days.

If you're going to use alternative currencies, you have to purchase it. Or somehow usefully trade to obtain it. Trading presupposes a viability of those trading to function in a fracturing infrastructure.

And this was why I used a state as the issue. See, the thing is that a country is much different than a town or county. Their capabilities to affect the whole state is limited by their lack of political power within the state. To use just NY as the example, you would have to use Albany, not Westchester. France, UK, Spain, Germany, Italy are basically the Five Burroughs in this scenario. Albany, a capital city, has a great deal of influence available, while being just central enough to create a more serious problem.

People don't take into account, or severely underestimate, how paranoid the market really is right now. The Euro tanking a bit, by itself, wouldn't cause much effect, but Greece doesn't exist in the vacuum it believes itself to be in. When a country's economy collapses, in this age of globalization, it's going to effect anyone trading with that country. With much of the UK already in a down economy, the effects of this only get worse.

Drummond

07-01-2015, 04:35 PM

And this was why I used a state as the issue. See, the thing is that a country is much different than a town or county. Their capabilities to affect the whole state is limited by their lack of political power within the state. To use just NY as the example, you would have to use Albany, not Westchester. France, UK, Spain, Germany, Italy are basically the Five Burroughs in this scenario. Albany, a capital city, has a great deal of influence available, while being just central enough to create a more serious problem.

People don't take into account, or severely underestimate, how paranoid the market really is right now. The Euro tanking a bit, by itself, wouldn't cause much effect, but Greece doesn't exist in the vacuum it believes itself to be in. When a country's economy collapses, in this age of globalization, it's going to effect anyone trading with that country. With much of the UK already in a down economy, the effects of this only get worse.

I agree with this for the most part.

Two possible points of disagreement, though ..

One, I think that Greece is very well aware indeed that it doesn't exist in a vacuum .. within the context, anyway, of its negotiation aims with the EU. I think they've long since believed that as an integral part of membership of the Euro currency, they believed they could trust to the EU 'never daring' to let them sink, rather than swim. Under their Lefties, they've attempted a form of blackmail with, as its basis, the EU understanding that they never dare let any Member of the Euro 'club' be seen to fail. Because of a backlash of a lack of confidence in the Euro. Because, in failing, the EU would find itself having to (because if THEY didn't, OTHERS would ..) examine the conditions of other such memberships, such as Spain and Italy, countries also having problems.

Two ... the UK is not in a 'down' economy. Another contributor here once tried to claim that our own austerity measures, instituted and maintained by our Conservatives, were needlessly harmful to us, and that our economy was destined to follow a fate not unlike Greece's own because austerity was not the right path. But not only has that not occurred, we're moving FURTHER from that end of the fiscal spectrum with each passing month.

Ours has not been a smooth recovery, it's faltered in the past, but, we are improving steadily. We have a small but a sustained growth rate, and we play a positive role in global commerce instead of a dysfunctional one.

The UK has followed its austerity measures. Totally unlike Greece, our electorate voted CONSERVATIVES into power, being fully aware that under them, austerity disciplines would continue on and possibly even intensify, to some extent, during the current Term. We voted AGAINST revisiting a past of fiscal irresponsibility ... which is the opposite to the choice that Greece has so far made.

The respective fates of the UK and of Greece tell their own stories.

Max R.

07-01-2015, 06:48 PM

... and it definitely wouldn't be an attractive tourist destination, if their Air Traffic Control people don't get paid, and so don't turn up for work, and flights to and from Greece are halted. Nor if airlines can't rely on airport staff servicing their flights, from baggage control, to aircraft maintenance and refuelling.
Agreed. Since Greece can't let that happen, at least not completely, they'll be forced to make changes.

Part of the problem Greece, Detroit and Puerto Rico are in the shape they are is because politicians were weak and failed to stand up for what was necessary. Instead they passed out political pablum and made promises which were not financially sound. Now the time has come to pay up and they don't have the money.

The harm felt by the citizens will force Greece to act in a more responsible manner.

Drummond

07-01-2015, 07:17 PM

Agreed. Since Greece can't let that happen, at least not completely, they'll be forced to make changes.

Part of the problem Greece, Detroit and Puerto Rico are in the shape they are is because politicians were weak and failed to stand up for what was necessary. Instead they passed out political pablum and made promises which were not financially sound. Now the time has come to pay up and they don't have the money.

The harm felt by the citizens will force Greece to act in a more responsible manner.

Basically agree. I hope you're right in your conclusion. BUT, never underestimate Leftie irresponsibility. The Greek Lefties are anti-austerity. The same was definitely true of the UK's Lefties. In Greece's case, the Greek PM and his Government are solidly behind a 'NO to austerity' vote in the upcoming Referendum.

Maybe their electorate will vote 'YES'. All well and good, if so. Unlike the British experience, favouring austerity by voting for it will be a considerable about-turn for them.

Let's hope a week of closed banks, and a dwindling likelihood of their ATM's being allowed to make even highly limited payments as now, will have concentrated their thinking in the proper direction, come Sunday.

DragonStryk72

07-02-2015, 12:09 AM

I agree with this for the most part.

Two possible points of disagreement, though ..

One, I think that Greece is very well aware indeed that it doesn't exist in a vacuum .. within the context, anyway, of its negotiation aims with the EU. I think they've long since believed that as an integral part of membership of the Euro currency, they believed they could trust to the EU 'never daring' to let them sink, rather than swim. Under their Lefties, they've attempted a form of blackmail with, as its basis, the EU understanding that they never dare let any Member of the Euro 'club' be seen to fail. Because of a backlash of a lack of confidence in the Euro. Because, in failing, the EU would find itself having to (because if THEY didn't, OTHERS would ..) examine the conditions of other such memberships, such as Spain and Italy, countries also having problems.

Well, that's essentially the vacuum I'm talking about. They're acting as though the rest of the EU doesn't have a tap point with them, believing that they're so important that nothing happening in their country will result in them being shown the door.

Two ... the UK is not in a 'down' economy. Another contributor here once tried to claim that our own austerity measures, instituted and maintained by our Conservatives, were needlessly harmful to us, and that our economy was destined to follow a fate not unlike Greece's own because austerity was not the right path. But not only has that not occurred, we're moving FURTHER from that end of the fiscal spectrum with each passing month.

Sorry, meant Europe in general, not UK. All of y'all just look alike.

Ours has not been a smooth recovery, it's faltered in the past, but, we are improving steadily. We have a small but a sustained growth rate, and we play a positive role in global commerce instead of a dysfunctional one.

The UK has followed its austerity measures. Totally unlike Greece, our electorate voted CONSERVATIVES into power, being fully aware that under them, austerity disciplines would continue on and possibly even intensify, to some extent, during the current Term. We voted AGAINST revisiting a past of fiscal irresponsibility ... which is the opposite to the choice that Greece has so far made.

The respective fates of the UK and of Greece tell their own stories.

Yeah, pretty much Greece is purely attempting to not have to change anything in how they do business, but want all the protections possible for whatever they feel like doing.

Max R.

07-02-2015, 09:40 AM

Basically agree. I hope you're right in your conclusion. BUT, never underestimate Leftie irresponsibility. The Greek Lefties are anti-austerity. The same was definitely true of the UK's Lefties. In Greece's case, the Greek PM and his Government are solidly behind a 'NO to austerity' vote in the upcoming Referendum.

Maybe their electorate will vote 'YES'. All well and good, if so. Unlike the British experience, favouring austerity by voting for it will be a considerable about-turn for them.

Let's hope a week of closed banks, and a dwindling likelihood of their ATM's being allowed to make even highly limited payments as now, will have concentrated their thinking in the proper direction, come Sunday.

Agreed on never underestimating the Left, however when Rainbows and Unicorns are confronted with financial reality, reality always wins. That's not to say they won't be right back where they are in another 20-30 years, just that they will have no choice to continue in the direction they are going.

It's a human trait that many people (my guess is most of those on the left side of the IQ Bell Curve) won't change until reality whacks them in the back of the head. This is the case of Greece. They've argued, cajoled, bitched, ranted and pleaded, but they've run out of options. The Greeks can't force other EU nations to give them money, so now they are deep in the very hole they dug themselves. If they stop digging and start filling it back up again, then maybe other nations or groups will be willing to invest in them again.

fj1200

07-02-2015, 11:06 AM

Two ... the UK is not in a 'down' economy. Another contributor here once tried to claim that our own austerity measures, instituted and maintained by our Conservatives, were needlessly harmful to us, and that our economy was destined to follow a fate not unlike Greece's own because austerity was not the right path. But not only has that not occurred, we're moving FURTHER from that end of the fiscal spectrum with each passing month.

:facepalm99:

fj1200

07-02-2015, 03:43 PM

The Latest: Greece: IMF report justifies Greek debt stanceThe Latest: Greece: IMF report justifies Greek govt stance on debt: it's not sustainable
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/latest-greece-imf-report-justifies-175319421.html

Gunny

07-02-2015, 04:14 PM

- "Advanced world currencies" is a very interesting topic to speak about, especially after 1965, when after the friendly visit of the French vessel with tons of dollars aboard to the USA with the aim to exchange the paper for gold, in 1972 post-war Bretton Woods system ruined; the recent American tricks with golden plated tungsten bricks, the USA intended to foist to Chinese, and the USA rejecting to return back the Golden Stock of Germany - all these looking to the amount of American internal and external dept gives an interesting picture.
- It depends. IMF has its own position, when speaking about Ukraine. I suspect they have some OTHER prevailing reasons.
- This is a question of terms and conditions. I think that those, which Greece had are not suitable for this country.

How do you like THESE Commie propaganda? http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/standart/smile3.gif

I used to live in Greece. That you're full of shit goes without saying, commie. What do want to know?

One of the coolest places I ever lived and Greeks are cool people. You put them right in the middle of your Cold War. They're broke defending themselves against aggression. Yours mostly.

Balu

07-02-2015, 10:25 PM

Greece Is Not The Only Country Facing Severe Economic Challenges…

By Elliott Morss of Morss Global Finance (http://www.morssglobalfinance.com/greece-is-not-the-only-country-facing-severe-economic-challenges/)
Monday, March 30, 2015 1:04 PM EDT

Introduction
The media is doing a more than adequate job of covering the futile dance between the Eurozone “leaders” and Greece. But Greece is not the only country facing fundamental economic challenges. This article identifies other countries in the most dire straits and the problems they face.
Methodology Used to Select Countries in the Most Trouble
To select countries, five key indicators were selected: GDP growth rates, unemployment rates, government deficits, government debt, and current account deficits. Declining or negative GDP growth rates are often a precursor of emerging economic problems. High unemployment rates mean problems already exist. High government deficits means a country’s ability to generate additional fiscal stimulus are limited: the deficits lead to higher government debts, debts that can become unsustainable. Current account balances are the sum of trade and capital flows. Countries can only run negative current account balances until they have depleted their international reserves.
The IMF collects these data on 189 countries. For purposes here, countries with populations of less than 500,000 were dropped. Then, the 30 countries with the worst 2014 performance on each of these indicators were selected. That narrowed the list to 74 countries. The list was paired further by choosing countries that performed worst on at least 3 of these 5 indicators. That left 12 countries. Those countries along with three others facing somewhat unique problems – Ecuador, Ukraine and Venezuela – are analyzed below. Libya and Syria are not included. Their serious economic problems are primarily attributable to wars. But at least for now, Libya is still pumping oil and Syria receives substantial economic assistance from Iran.
Countries Without Their Own Currencies
Six countries in our selection use the Euro and Ecuador uses the US dollar. Situations in these countries are most precarious because without having a currency that can weaken, they can literally run out of money. Table 1 lists the six countries in trouble that do not have their own currencies. The numbers in red designate indicators where the country ranked as one of the lowest 30 countries in the IMF database.
Table 1. – Economic Performance Indicators, 2014

http://www.morssglobalfinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ec1.jpg
Source: IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/weodata/index.aspx) The countries, ranked by the size of their government debts, all have somewhat different problems. Greece is in a class by itself: 25% of its workforce is out of work and the debt cannot be sustained. But its greatest problem is that its leaders, the European Central Bank, and Eurozone officials are just sparring with no solution in sight. Italy tends to cruise along under the radar. But it is in a recession with a growing unemployment rate and its debt burden is dangerously high. Media reports suggest that Portugal is “out of the woods”, but is it? With high unemployment and a heavy debt burden, its future is cloudy at best. Cyprus is in a free fall but does not get much attention because of its size. Spain is using deficit finance to reduce its high unemployment rate and does not yet have a high debt burden. Time will tell on whether it works. In recent years, the French economy has been lackluster and its large government deficit has gotten the attention of Eurozone officials. And its current account deficit is also problematic. On the basis of Table 1 data, Ecuador’s problems do not appear serious. Why they are will be explained below.

In order to highlight the problems countries without their own currencies face, consider a simple example – suppose there was only one good produced by all countries. Suppose further that Germany was able to sell sold that good more cheaply than any other country. Everyone in the Eurozone would buy that good from Germany until they no longer had any Euros: in short, until they ran out of money. That is in fact what has happened to Greece and could happen to other countries listed in Table 1.
Table 2 looks more closely at these countries with data on 2014 trade balances and capital flows (as percents of GDP). The Table also includes data on international reserves standardized by months of imports the reserves would cover.
Table 2. – International Finances, 2015

http://www.morssglobalfinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ec2.jpg
Sources: IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/weodata/index.aspx) and FocusEconomics (http://www.focus-economics.com/) The media is reporting Greece will run out of “money” in April. This illustrates why. The positive capital inflows (10.7%) in 2014 came from the ECB/Eurozone/IMF troika. If that stops with Greece’s international reserves at only 3 days of imports, Greece will most definitely “run out of money” very shortly. The capital inflows offsetting trade deficits for these other countries come from both foreign assistance and the private sector. In recent months, private capital outflows have been large. And without assistance from the troika…. And in this regard, Ecuador, using the US dollar as its currency, bears watching. The media suggests that China is providing some funding. One wonders how long Ecuador will have positive capital inflows and what will happen if they dry up….
Countries With Their Own Currencies
Table 3 provides data on problematic countries that have their own currencies. And unlike those locked into a currency where the value is determined by other countries, these countries will get some relief as their currencies weaken. And this, in turn, will make their imports more expensive and exports cheaper to other countries.
Table 3. – Performance Indicators, 2014

http://www.morssglobalfinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ec3.jpg
Source: IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/weodata/index.aspx) Japan remains an anomaly. With a much higher debt burden than any other country in the world, it is able to “carry on” because its citizens, burned by stock market losses in prior years, buy up most of its debt. It is also notable that despite massive deficit financing, the country has had little growth in the last two decades. Both Jordan and Lebanon must cope with a large influx of migrants from Syria. And both are running large government deficits, offset to some degree by foreign assistance. Lebanon has a much higher government debt burden than Jordan, while both have large current account deficits.

Jamaica is in recession (this is also true of many other Caribbean islands too small to be included here). And with high unemployment and a large debt burden, further deficit financing to stimulate the economy is not an option for Jamaica. Egypt’s numbers are also troubling: high unemployment and also a large government deficit. Having its own depreciating currency has helped Egypt by making import more expensive and exports cheaper: there were 5.5 Egyptian £s to the US $ in 2010; that has increased to 7.6 £ today.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=57&aid=6), Venezuela has larger oil reserves than any other country in the world. Transparency International (http://www.transparency.org/research/cpi/overview) ranks it 161st out of 174 countries for economic mismanagement and corruption. And finally, there is Ukraine. Also with plenty of corruption (142 on Transparency International’s ranking) and being in a state of war, the economy is understandably declining. But even before this, Ukraine had allowed itself to become dependent on huge Russian energy subsidies. Today, it is increasingly dependent on how much assistance Russia and Western nations are willing to provide.
Table 4 provides data on the international financial situation of these countries. Despite its huge oil reserves, Venezuela has not bothered to build up any financial reserves, figuring its positive current account balances will provide all the international buying power it needs. Both Ukraine and Egypt will be helped by positive capital inflows. Egypt gets approximately $1.5 billion every year from the US as part of the Camp David Accords.
Table 4. – International Finances, 2015

http://www.morssglobalfinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ec4.jpg
Sources: IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/colist.aspx) and FocusEconomics (http://www.focus-economics.com/) Lebanon is interesting. In 2015, its current account outflows are projected at $6.5 billion but it will still have substantial international reserves, a holdover from earlier years when it was the financial center of the Middle East.
Conclusions on What Countries Face the Most Severe Hurdles
We start by eliminating Japan and Venezuela from further consideration. Each has plenty of assets to “get by”. And among the remaining countries with their own currencies, only Ukraine stands out as facing an extremely dangerous future.
However, in looking at countries without their own currencies, all the Eurozone remain at risk. While Greece is currently getting the headlines in the Eurozone, the other 4 Eurozone countries highlighted here – France, Italy, Portugal and Spain – are in serious trouble. The most worrying point is that the Euro leaders and Greece are in denial and are not discussing what has to be done to resolve the situation. Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek Minister of Finance, recently said (http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greek-bailout-restructuring-by-yanis-varoufakis-2015-03?utm_source=MadMimi&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Project+Syndicate%27s+Economics+Update&utm_campaign=20150319_m124947906_Project+Syndicate %27s+Economics+Upda): “Five years after the first bailout was issued, Greece remains in crisis. Animosity among Europeans is at an all-time high, with Greeks and Germans, in particular, having descended to the point of moral grandstanding, mutual finger-pointing, and open antagonism.”

Yannos Papantoniou, the former Finance Minister of Greece, recently wrote a piece (http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eurozone-economies-fiscal-transfers-by-yannos-papantoniou-2015-03?utm_source=MadMimi&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Project+Syndicate%27s+Economics+Update&utm_campaign=20150319_m124947906_Project+Syndicate %27s+Econ) labeling the situation “unsustainable.” He went on to say to openly speculate on how a breakup might take place: “The first step in such a process would probably be the Eurozone’s division into sub-areas, comprising countries of relatively equal resilience. As it becomes increasingly difficult to pursue coherent fiscal and monetary policies, the risk of the Eurozone’s complete dissolution would grow. Greece’s exit could shorten this timeline considerably.”
I see the current Euro/Greek negotiations as futile and a waste of time. Greece should be focusing on pulling out of the Eurozone and launching its own currency. And when there is a general realization this will soon happen, other countries might follow.
And Ecuador, the country that uses the US$ as its currency? No real worry: The Chinese are interested in its natural resources.

http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets/greece-is-not-the-only-country-facing-severe-economic-challenges?post=61851&page=4

Tyr-Ziu Saxnot

07-03-2015, 12:13 AM

Not really.. Greece doesn't even understand Greece.. :laugh:-Tyr

Balu

07-03-2015, 12:31 AM

Not really.. Greece doesn't even understand Greece.. :laugh:-Tyr
May be you are right. Sometimes it looks like they think that the problem will resolve itself this or that way.

Drummond

07-03-2015, 04:04 PM

May be you are right. Sometimes it looks like they think that the problem will resolve itself this or that way.

Latest news, courtesy of the BBC ...

The Greek PM has made a short speech, apparently, urging the Greek people not to give in to 'blackmail' from the EU when voting in Sunday's Referendum. Apparently, he also made a point of saying that there was no likelihood of Greece being kicked out of the EU (a technicality, meant to divert from the real likelihood of their exit from the Euro currency .. ?).

According to the BBC, the voting Greek population are currently evenly split between 'yes' and 'no' ... so, the Leftie propagandising seems not to be having the desired 'let's live in cloud cuckooland some more' effect being hoped for ..

Drummond

07-05-2015, 07:51 PM

So, the result is out. With 97 percent of the votes counted, there's been a two-thirds to one third split, in favour of a 'NO' vote in the Referendum, meaning that the Greek people have refused to accept the repayment terms for outstanding bailout loans due to the EU. Pundits were expecting a closer call than that, but it hasn't happened ...

Now we wait to see if the EU will follow through and just kick Greece out of the shared Euro currency. Reports say that nothing will be discussed on this until Tuesday, and their expulsion isn't certain at this stage .. although likely. In the meantime, Greece's cash crisis gets worse all the time - they may run out of money before the EU officially decides its course of action.

Greeks, it seems, STILL refuse to face reality, feeling that they can just defy it.

Europe has a difficult time ahead of it. If they kick Greece out of the Euro, it'll start speculation as to the fitness of those weaker economies still a part of it .. Italy, Spain, Portugal. Greece has a small economy. Other larger economies could comparably continue to threaten the Euro's stability.

If Greece remains a part of the Euro, with the mandate the Greek people have given their Government, they both want to, and can, say that further bailouts and repayment terms must be substantially less harsh to Greece and her style of living. Meaning .. that Greece becomes an altogether bigger strain on the Euro than would've been the case otherwise. Those countries remaining part of the Euro will feel that strain in the years ahead.

-- And all for what ? GREECE'S LEFT-WING LED REFUSAL TO RUN ITS ECONOMY WITH FISCAL PRUDENCE, IN A RESPONSIBLE MANNER.

Ain't Leftie irresponsibility 'wonderful' ?

fj1200

07-05-2015, 07:55 PM

Ain't Leftie irresponsibility 'wonderful' ?

Simpy whining about lefties doesn't really do anything here.

:dunno:

tailfins

07-05-2015, 08:03 PM

Drummond

07-05-2015, 08:20 PM

The Greeks that faced reality don't live in Greece anymore. Voting with your feet doesn't get tallied at the ballot box.

... leading to the lunatic vote of today. Fiscal IRresponsibility wins the day ...

This is something of the message that was sold to the (remaining) Greek people -

http://www.usnews.net/index.php/sid/234457771

ATHENS, Greece - Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis says Athens' creditors are engaging in "terrorism", a day before the country goes to polls for a referendum on Greece's international bailout.

Varoufakis told Spanish media that the country's lenders wanted to "instill fear in people".

"Why did they force us to close the banks?" he asked in an interview. "To instill fear in people. And spreading fear is called terrorism," he said.

The Greek finance minister added that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras would still reach an agreement with creditors if the result of the referendum was "No", and said that banks in Greece would reopen on Tuesday whatever the outcome of the vote.

Economic analysts, however, have said it is unclear whether either of these pledges would be possible in the event of a no vote.

Varoufakis has said that the so-called "troika" of creditors (EU, IMF and ECB) wanted a "yes" vote to win so they could humiliate the Greeks with a harsh austerity program that will see large scale cuts to all areas of state spending, especially welfare.

The two sides in the referendum ended their campaigns with big rallies Saturday.

Such is the extent of complete escapism the Left has conned the Greek people into swallowing. With bank supplies of money dwindling, during the bank CLOSURES of this past week ... with no more money immediately available, the Greek banks will OPEN on Tuesday ??

I believe that, in the face of such defiant lunacy, the EU will understand that it needs to kick Greece out of the Euro. That'll leave Greece having to reinvent the Drachma, and print money that'll have unsupportable value. Cue Weimar Germany, early 20th century ??

This is what happens when you don't run an economy in a fiscally prudent way. Where preference overrides reality and a measured, responsible level of conduct.

I 'wonder' how the world financial markets will react ?

Such is The Leftie Way. Sheer poison, as Greece is proving.

Kathianne

07-05-2015, 08:40 PM

I hate to say this, but the NYT seems to have hit the nail with hammer here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/upshot/now-europe-must-decide-whether-to-make-an-example-of-greece.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=0

Now Europe Must Decide Whether to Make an Example of GreeceJULY 5, 2015

...

Less evidently true was the contention by Mr. Tsipras that this outcome need not involve abandoning the euro. During the run-up to the vote, European leaders were shouting from the rooftops that rejecting the bailout offer would mean saying goodbye to the common currency, ushering in a volatile, dangerous era for Greece with far-reaching consequences.

Now we will find out whether they were bluffing.

The European creditors are exasperated by the Greek leaders, who cast aside many of the niceties of intra-European diplomacy in pursuing an aggressive negotiating style. (Hint: If you are negotiating with Germany seeking debt relief, bringing up Nazi war reparations, as Mr. Tsipras has, (http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/23/tsipras-raises-nazi-war-reparations-claim-at-berlin-press-conference-with-merkel)isn’t the most effective idea).

But the decision for European leaders isn’t whether they like or dislike Mr. Tsipras and his finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis. It is whether they believe the goals of maintaining a united Europe are worth yielding to Greece’s demands: maintaining a spigot of cash (through E.C.B. bank lending programs) and ultimately a new bailout that lets the Greeks write down meaningful debt and relax some of the cuts to pensions and government worker pay of past deals.

...

The choice for leaders of Germany, France and the rest of Europe will look something like this:
If they tolerate the Greek government’s demands, they will be setting a bad example for every other country that might wish to challenge the strictures of the European Union (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/e/european_union/index.html?inline=nyt-org), telling voters in Portugal and Spain and Italy that if they make enough fuss, and elect extremist parties, they too will get a much sweeter deal. It would send the signal that a country can borrow all it likes, walk away from those debts and make the rest of Europe pay the bill, as long as it is intransigent enough.

If they refuse the Greek government’s demands and cut off funds, the Greek banking system will collapse and the country will no longer be part of the eurozone, sending a signal that the European Union is deeply fragile. Greece would sidle closer to a hostile Russia. A modern European democracy — indeed, the original democracy — could well collapse into something chaotic and unstable. Oh, and all this may end up costing the rest of Europe more money than even the most generous of bailouts, as Greece would default on its obligations outright rather than merely restructure them.

Essentially, European leaders must decide if their frustration with Greece and fear of a bad precedent are strong enough that they are willing to take a giant step in the other direction, by withholding further euros from Greece.

Sunday, Greek voters faced their crucial moment of decision, and they were clear: They are willing to risk the euro to avoid more austerity. Now it is Ms. Merkel and the other leaders of Europe who face a ticking clock and a decision that will ripple through history.

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fj1200

07-05-2015, 08:54 PM

I hate to say this, but the NYT seems to have hit the nail with hammer here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/upshot/now-europe-must-decide-whether-to-make-an-example-of-greece.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=0
[/FONT][/COLOR]

Nice find. Irwin seems intelligent. If the "no" vote was a referendum on the continuation of austerity then they'll have to come up with a better plan because austerity sucks and does not work.

The outcome leaves Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/t/alexis_tsipras/index.html?inline=nyt-per) in charge, with a clearer mandate to continue his strategy than he had Sunday morning. His message to his key interlocutors, including Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank president, will be simple and well supported by the outcome of the referendum: The Greek people will not abide a continuation of the austerity policies of the last five years. Make us a better offer.

Drummond

07-05-2015, 09:10 PM

If Greece wins out in its tussle with the EU, and the EU buckles, it'll mean:

1. Countries can defy their creditors as they choose, and expect to win --

2. When loans are made, even WHEN terms have been settled upon and agreed, and enacted, they can be torn up later, long before debt repayments are completed.

3. With this a proven fact .. will any other weaker economy remaining in the EU also be tempted to try its luck ? Cue massive Euro instability on the back of it !

4. How will world financial markets react ? With an inherent weakness inbuilt into the Euro's foundation, will it suffer long-term decline, all nations tied into it, ditto ?

5. ... and ALL BECAUSE A BUNCH OF LEFTIES IN A FISCALLY DYSFUNCTIONAL ECONOMY COULDN'T FACE ECONOMIC REALITY.

The economics of the madhouse prevail, in defiance of fiscal responsibility. Consequently, the formation of another madhouse looms.

Kathianne

07-05-2015, 09:16 PM

Kathianne

07-05-2015, 09:18 PM

I'm trying to remember the reasoning behind instituting the EU over the Common Market. Seemed a much better idea that, the later.

Drummond

07-05-2015, 09:49 PM

and yet, it seems there is no 'win' for EU. Greece will either 'get away with their pullback on austerity' or they will leave the euro and totally default.

It's more than a mess.

I've always believed that the Euro was a stupid idea, anyway. Although .. the sub-agenda made it less so, IF it could succeed.

When you've got a whole bunch of economies tied together, the more their resilience is guaranteed, the better. Trouble is, this means having each participating economy as fit to sustain that level of fiscal competence as you can possibly get ..

How do you guarantee such an outcome ? By unifying each Member State to the maximum extent possible, keeping the lockstep phenomenon in place.

Cue the EU's legislative mandates, its exercising of overriding power over all Member States.

Little wonder that the Euro's creators want it to succeed. The Euro is a power-unifying mechanism, because of what its stable maintenance implies the need for.

What do we have now ? Greece, breaking all the rules. Fiscally incompetent in the extreme. A member of the Euro, nonetheless. Why have the EU tolerated such a disparity in their midst ? Because they had an answer to it. Fiscal RESPONSIBILITY, but under very harsh rules for repayment - needing to be harsh, but in its implementation, a measure of Europe's fiscal strength was given over to Greece, to see it through, day by day, week by week.

So I think that, now, the EU is very unlikely to continue to favour Greece. What, in the face of the current status quo, do they have to gain ? Greece will be kicked out of the Euro, I think. Greece will most probably retain EU membership, because the EU still wants Greece to be politically tied to it. But I suggest ... 'NOT AT ANY COST' ...

One can have cause to 'admire' Greece's defiance of its creditors in one limited respect, that of defying a political and economic colossus. But at the other end of the scale, they still have the EU to thank for seeing them through what would've otherwise been ruinous days. If they must now abandon that lifeline, Greece will have to institute its own currency, backed by -- WHAT ?? -- and try to stay on their feet.

In the short term, they'll have to print money unsupported by any economic foundation. Weimar Germany showed the world how inflationary that could be, and how thoroughly ruinous.

In the longer term, IF they can operate competently, they'll survive. But in all things .. you have to competently crawl before you can hope to walk. You have to competently walk before you can hope to run. Only when Greece can fiscally get through these bedrock stages, can it prosper.

The key to all this is RESPONSIBLE THINKING. Alas, Greece has shown the very opposite, led by Lefties feeding them moonshine instead of clarity.

Drummond

07-05-2015, 09:56 PM

I'm trying to remember the reasoning behind instituting the EU over the Common Market. Seemed a much better idea that, the later.

Whatever the excuses officially disseminated, what happened was a power vacuum being filled. The EEC was always meant to be just a trading confederation. It mutated over time to become a power bloc. An opportunity to wield power was taken up, and ultimately, we faced a European Parliament, complete with - after the requisite binding Treaty consolidated its power - overriding legislative abilities.

'Nature abhors a vacuum'. The EU is political proof of that.

Kathianne

07-06-2015, 05:12 AM

I've found a truism in my life: Poke and prod at something regarding econ/politics and I'll find Milton Friedman or Daniel Patrick Moynihan said something prophetic about it.

This time it's Friedman:

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-euro--monetary-unity-to-political-disunity

<time itemprop="datePublished" datetime="1997-08-28T04:00Z" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); font-size: 15px; line-height: 19px; font-family: 'Copyright Klim Type Foundry 400', Arial, sans-serif;">AUG 28, 1997</time> 1The Euro: Monetary Unity To Political Disunity?
SAN FRANCISCO - A common currency is an excellent monetary arrangement under some circumstances, a poor monetary arrangement under others. Whether it is good or bad depends primarily on the adjustment mechanisms that are available to absorb the economic shocks and dislocations that impinge on the various entities that are considering a common currency. Flexible exchange rates are a powerful adjustment mechanism for shocks that affect the entities differently. It is worth dispensing with this mechanism to gain the advantage of lower transaction costs and external discipline only if there are adequate alternative adjustment mechanisms.

The United States is an example of a situation that is favorable to a common currency. Though composed of fifty states, its residents overwhelmingly speak the same language, listen to the same television programs, see the same movies, can and do move freely from one part of the country to another; goods and capital move freely from state to state; wages and prices are moderately flexible; and the national government raises in taxes and spends roughly twice as much as state and local governments. Fiscal policies differ from state to state, but the differences are minor compared to the common national policy.

Unexpected shocks may well affect one part of the United States more than others -- as, for example, the Middle East embargo on oil did in the 1970s, creating an increased demand for labor and boom conditions in some states, such as Texas, and unemployment and depressed conditions in others, such as the oil-importing states of the industrial Midwest. The different short-run effects were soon mediated by movements of people and goods, by offsetting financial flows from the national to the state and local governments, and by adjustments in prices and wages.

By contrast, Europe’s common market exemplifies a situation that is unfavorable to a common currency. It is composed of separate nations, whose residents speak different languages, have different customs, and have far greater loyalty and attachment to their own country than to the common market or to the idea of "Europe." Despite being a free trade area, goods move less freely than in the United States, and so does capital.

The European Commission based in Brussels, indeed, spends a small fraction of the total spent by governments in the member countries. They, not the European Union’s bureaucracies, are the important political entities. Moreover, regulation of industrial and employment practices is more extensive than in the United States, and differs far more from country to country than from American state to American state. As a result, wages and prices in Europe are more rigid, and labor less mobile. In those circumstances, flexible exchange rates provide an extremely useful adjustment mechanism.

If one country is affected by negative shocks that call for, say, lower wages relative to other countries, that can be achieved by a change in one price, the exchange rate, rather than by requiring changes in thousands on thousands of separate wage rates, or the emigration of labor. The hardships imposed on France by its "franc fort" policy illustrate the cost of a politically inspired determination not to use the exchange rate to adjust to the impact of German unification. Britain’s economic growth after it abandoned the European Exchange Rate Mechanism a few years ago to refloat the pound illustrates the effectiveness of the exchange rate as an adjustment mechanism.

...

In this case, those that know something about economics and geoeconomics, (not me!) saw this long ago:

https://www.aei.org/publication/maybe-milton-was-right-about-the-euro/

Desmond Lachman (https://www.aei.org/scholar/desmond-lachman/)

<time datetime="2010-02-23T02:50:00">February 23, 2010</time> | The American
Maybe Milton Was Right About the Euro

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2013/05/dangerous_times_milton_friedman_just_won_his_euro_ bet.html

May 11, 2013Dangerous Times: Milton Friedman just won his euro betBy James Lewis (http://www.americanthinker.com/james_lewis)

...

Milton Friedman predicted this outcome, based on his life's work in economics. Forbes wrote an article last year, called, Happy Birthday (http://www.forbes.com/sites/jerrybowyer/2012/08/01/happy-birthday-milton-friedman-the-european-crisis-is-your-latest-vindication/), Milton Friedman, The European Crisis is Your Latest Vindication.

"July 31st (2012) was Milton Friedman's 100th birthday, and his birthday present is to watch the 'European Project' come crashing to the ground, just as he predicted that it would. I doubt that it gives him any pleasure. In fact, Friedman told Robert Mundell (the 'Father of the Euro') that since the experiment had already been entered into, he hoped that he would turn out to be wrong. But he hasn't been."

For econophiliacs, the detailed debate between Friedman and Mundell can be found here (http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/may01/friedman.pdf).

The details are dizzying, but the basic question is whether free markets work for currencies as well as goods and services. Before the rigid euro, Greece could lower its currency to sell olives and wine cheaply enough to compete on the world market. A cheaper Greek drachma could attract tourists by the millions.

But today the euro is fixed around $1.25 and Greece has lost its relative advantage. Olives from Argentina are now cheaper. Result: A shrinking economy that cannot support a growing population, a generous old-age pension plan that cannot be paid out, a welfare system designed to attract cheap immigrant votes for the left and damn the consequences, and a 24/7 propaganda campaign about the glories of the European Union that is suddenly out of touch with everyday reality.

When times were good, Greeks came to live in Athens. Many bought luxury BMW's, because the welfare state was subsidized by the EU. Then the Germans realized that the Greek budget was a pack of lies. The southern rim of Euorpe has a long, long history of tax evasion and corruption, in good part because there have been few honest governments. Everybody lies to the taxman because they know the system is rigged. Everybody has a way of fiddling the system. Many people hold double jobs to get double incomes. In two and half millennia, that's the only way ordinary people can deal with corrupt and self-serving rulers. The EU is hardly free of corruption itself.

When the wealthier half of Europe started to realize it was subsidizing a giant sinkhole, the European Central Bank finally insisted on realistic accounting and deep spending cuts in Greece, Italy, Spain and the rest. The result was extremely painful to regular people, the kind of economic pain that Americans knew in the Great Depression.

...

Drummond

07-06-2015, 09:17 AM

fj1200

07-06-2015, 11:14 AM

I've found a truism in my life: Poke and prod at something regarding econ/politics and I'll find Milton Friedman or Daniel Patrick Moynihan said something prophetic about it.

This time it's Friedman:

In this case, those that know something about economics and geoeconomics, (not me!) saw this long ago:

I think he was right but for the wrong reason. The optimum state of monetary policy IMO is stability, i.e. stable price levels, and not the ability to cheapen a currency to make goods more affordable to foreign markets. The latter is merely a phantom tax on the population via inflation. Greece has problems because under the Euro they are unable to inflate away the failures of their government. Even currency substitution won't solve this in the long term because they still can't inflate away their problems.

Regarding the Euro even our Federal Reserve had growing pains and occasionally for long periods of time did an awful job in their role. Post WWI, the 30's, the 70's, even the late '00's, so it goes a bit deeper.

Noir

07-07-2015, 09:16 AM

fj1200

07-07-2015, 10:28 AM

All eyes were on what would be proposed as a solution today after the referendum...and what an anti-climax.

I think the DAX would agree.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#{"range":"6mo","allowChartStacking":true} (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#{"range":"6mo","all owChartStacking":true})

Drummond

07-07-2015, 07:08 PM

All eyes were on what would be proposed as a solution today after the referendum...and what an anti-climax.

The Eurozone officials said that the Greeks turned up with no proposal at all. The Greeks said they offered the Junker proposals (the ones rejected in the referendum) with some tweaks...so we are no further on.

If i were a Greek i think i'd be very confused by the fact that (at best) all that was proposed were tweaks, tbh it looks like they don't know what bargaining power, if any, the mandate of the referendum gave them.

Well, Noir, I wonder if, if you were a Greek, you'd be doing what the majority of Greeks are doing right now, namely, placing their trust in a bunch of stroppy Lefties !!

We see what that trust has brought them. A Government which has reneged on previously agreed repayment terms back to the EU. A Government that's been determined to break the back of 'imposed austerity' against Greece, in total and complete defiance of the reality of Greece's situation. A Government which supposedly talks to the EU 'in good faith' yet talks of the EU's so-called 'terrorism' against Greece ... FOR JUST IMPLEMENTING AGREED-ON TERMS !!!

Yet, still .. the Greeks seem to have faith in what their Lefties are doing. STAGGERRING, EVEN UTTERLY INSANE, BUT TRUE !! This despite their not, yet, having managed to come up with any replacement proposals for repayment of their debts. This despite that, by best current estimates, Greek banks will run dry of cash in approximately the next 24 hours !!!

THIS, FOLKS, IS LEFTIEISM IN ACTION. A COUNTRY DUPED INTO TRUSTING UNTRUSTWORTHY 'PIED PIPER' POLITICIANS. A COUNTRY TEETERING ON THE EDGE OF FISCAL COLLAPSE.

Who's impressed ? Anyone ?? How about you, Noir ??

aboutime

07-07-2015, 07:13 PM

Well, Noir, I wonder if, if you were a Greek, you'd be doing what the majority of Greeks are doing right now, namely, placing their trust in a bunch of stroppy Lefties !!We see what that trust has brought them. A Government which has reneged on previously agreed repayment terms back to the EU. A Government that's been determined to break the back of 'imposed austerity' against Greece, in total and complete defiance of the reality of Greece's situation. A Government which supposedly talks to the EU 'in good faith' yet talks of the EU's so-called 'terrorism' against Greece ... FOR JUST IMPLEMENTING AGREED-ON TERMS !!!Yet, still .. the Greeks seem to have faith in what their Lefties are doing. STAGGERRING, EVEN UTTERLY INSANE, BUT TRUE !! This despite their not, yet, having managed to come up with any replacement proposals for repayment of their debts. This despite that, by best current estimates, Greek banks will run dry of cash in approximately the next 24 hours !!!THIS, FOLKS, IS LEFTIEISM IN ACTION. A COUNTRY DUPED INTO TRUSTING UNTRUSTWORTHY 'PIED PIPER' POLITICIANS. A COUNTRY TEETERING ON THE EDGE OF FISCAL COLLAPSE.Who's impressed ? Anyone ?? How about you, Noir ??TRUTH IS....for all of the Obama supporters who still haven't figured-out how he screwed them.The GREEKS are merely doing what AMERICANS should have done PRIOR to Congress voting for, and approving OBAMACARE.Remember the expression "What goes around, comes around?" Seems the Greeks have a handle on facing TRUTH.

Drummond

07-07-2015, 07:45 PM

TRUTH IS....for all of the Obama supporters who still haven't figured-out how he screwed them.The GREEKS are merely doing what AMERICANS should have done PRIOR to Congress voting for, and approving OBAMACARE.Remember the expression "What goes around, comes around?" Seems the Greeks have a handle on facing TRUTH.

Curiously, I'd have said the opposite. The Greeks are sleepwalking into total collapse, unless their Lefties not only start acting responsibly, but start to do that literally IMMEDIATELY. They've already had a deadline on producing repayment terms extended to Thursday. That's before those terms are discussed, and MAYBE agreed to ..... and this against estimates that Greek banks have just hours left to them before their money runs out !!

Aboutime, if the Greeks were facing their truth, then they'd have said 'YES' to their Referendum, not 'NO'. The Greek economy has been a basket-case for a very long time. Responsible Governments should've been working to repair the damage, while the EU, all this time, has so far cushioned them from facing its effects.

Their Lefties have convinced their electorate that they can end austerity ... and have reneged on a due repayment. Banks are nearly out of money, because the EU has reacted with understandable distrust of a Government refusing to meet its AGREED liabilities. Why should they throw money at Greece, a country that's treating its debt obligations with delusional contempt ?

And ... let's say that Greece wins through, somehow manages to cobble together ridiculously lax 'payments'. There are other weak economies in the EU, such as Italy and Spain, who'll be wondering if THEY can do something comparable for themselves.

A domino-effect of defaulting currencies, Aboutime, is NOT evidence of a TRUTH being faced !! Just the opposite. It's vandalism, for vandalism's sake.

And who's making things ten times worse, right now, with their version of an 'austerity sucks' approach, than they should be ? What a surprise ... you guessed it ... it's ...

.. A BUNCH OF LEFTIES.

aboutime

07-07-2015, 07:55 PM

Curiously, I'd have said the opposite. The Greeks are sleepwalking into total collapse, unless their Lefties not only start acting responsibly, but start to do that literally IMMEDIATELY. They've already had a deadline on producing repayment terms extended to Thursday. That's before those terms are discussed, and MAYBE agreed to ..... and this against estimates that Greek banks have just hours left to them before their money runs out !!Aboutime, if the Greeks were facing their truth, then they'd have said 'YES' to their Referendum, not 'NO'. The Greek economy has been a basket-case for a very long time. Responsible Governments should've been working to repair the damage, while the EU, all this time, has so far cushioned them from facing its effects.Their Lefties have convinced their electorate that they can end austerity ... and have reneged on a due repayment. Banks are nearly out of money, because the EU has reacted with understandable distrust of a Government refusing to meet its AGREED liabilities. Why should they throw money at Greece, a country that's treating its debt obligations with delusional contempt ?And ... let's say that Greece wins through, somehow manages to cobble together ridiculously lax 'payments'. There are other weak economies in the EU, such as Italy and Spain, who'll be wondering if THEY can do something comparable for themselves. A domino-effect of defaulting currencies, Aboutime, is NOT evidence of a TRUTH being faced !! Just the opposite. It's vandalism, for vandalism's sake.And who's making things ten times worse, right now, than they should be ? What a surprise ... it's ... .. A BUNCH OF LEFTIES.Sir Drummon. I fully understand your theory. But, as You must know by now. It really is just so TEMPTING to use Obama's intentional destructive techniques as a comparison to what the Greeks are doing.I know, and can forsee...sadly. How we here in the USA could be facing very similar circumstances, on a much smaller scale...IF, and WHEN our debt of more than 18 Trillion...is permitted to Increase into the 20's. No wonder the other nations of the World...distrust us more???Just a thought.

Noir

07-07-2015, 08:00 PM

Well, Noir, I wonder if, if you were a Greek, you'd be doing what the majority of Greeks are doing right now, ?

The greek people as of now are in a no win situation, especially the vulnerable, elderly, sick ect.

I do not blame the public for voting as they did in the referendum to try and get a better deal, but i don't think those involved have any interest in offering better terms.

Drummond

07-07-2015, 08:05 PM

Sir Drummon. I fully understand your theory. But, as You must know by now. It really is just so TEMPTING to use Obama's intentional destructive techniques as a comparison to what the Greeks are doing.I know, and can forsee...sadly. How we here in the USA could be facing very similar circumstances, on a much smaller scale...IF, and WHEN our debt of more than 18 Trillion...is permitted to Increase into the 20's. No wonder the other nations of the World...distrust us more???Just a thought.

I'm sure your thinking on this is sound, Aboutime. Although I'd argue that, to an extent, America is a special case, just because their currency, and their various trade deals, to say nothing of the part they play in financing key world financial institutions.

That said, didn't you - in a way, anyhow - face an effect of a Government failing to afford to pay its own employees, a while ago ? Obama, if I correctly recall - in true Leftie fashion - 'fixed' that problem by just pressuring a further increase in loaned money, to offset the problem.

He didn't actually FIX it, he just increased America's debt liabilities. It seems that Lefties have a singular talent for such irresponsibility ...

Drummond

07-07-2015, 08:19 PM

The greek people as of now are in a no win situation, especially the vulnerable, elderly, sick ect.

I do not blame the public for voting as they did in the referendum to try and get a better deal, but i don't think those involved have any interest in offering better terms.

I can half-agree with you. The Greek people are precariously close to a no-win situation, undoubtedly. It all hinges, now, on two things:

1. Their Leftie Government cobbling together a new set of debt repayment proposals, done at breakneck speed (they just had their finance minister resign, didn't they ?). And ....

2. Hoping against hope that the EU can AGREE to those specific proposals, ALSO at breakneck speed !!

The EU has rarely, if ever, been known to do anything at breakneck speed.

But here we must disagree. I really DO blame the Greek public for their referendum vote. I don't care how much 'milk and honey' terms their Lefties said could be obtained ... the Greeks should've still had the guts to see through it, and given their Leftie Pied Pipers a roasting last Sunday !!

Trouble is, the Greeks have been ambling along, getting through each day as it comes, reflecting not on their financial realities making their situation unavoidable, but instead whingeing about how tough it all was. Yes, it was tough, because austerity is never a pleasant thing. But THOSE MEASURES, AND THEIR AGREED DEBT REPAYMENTS, were the stuff their REALITY was made of.

What deserves to win out, Noir ? Sound, responsible economics .. or, the freedom to renege on debts, to tear up financial agreements, for no other reason than they are unpleasant to adhere to ???????

Doubtless there are many Lefties out there who secretly love to see capitalistic systems fail. Do they likewise rejoice at the misery and suffering that threatens to follow it all ??

What do you say, Noir ?

aboutime

07-07-2015, 08:21 PM

I'm sure your thinking on this is sound, Aboutime. Although I'd argue that, to an extent, America is a special case, just because their currency, and their various trade deals, to say nothing of the part they play in financing key world financial institutions.That said, didn't you - in a way, anyhow - face an effect of a Government failing to afford to pay its own employees, a while ago ? Obama, if I correctly recall - in true Leftie fashion - 'fixed' that problem by just pressuring a further increase in loaned money, to offset the problem.He didn't actually FIX it, he just increased America's debt liabilities. It seems that Lefties have a singular talent for such irresponsibility ... Exactly right! Obama and his imaginary wizards of everything financial didn't really solve anything. Aside from simply Printing more Money...not backed by anything, other than political BS. What took place with all the HARP stuff, from the Bush years as well...just served to KICK THAT CAN DOWN THE ROAD. Much like Obama is doing again with his NON-Foreign Policy. Instead of laying blame as he did before. He's happy to create a legacy of PUSHING ALL THE PROBLEMS he never was qualified to handle..to the next Occupant of the White House.Of course. WE THE PEOPLE (who pay attention), know what he is, and has been doing. But he also knows. His ability to FOOL MOST OF THE PEOPLE...ALL OF THE TIME...namely those dependent on Government, is a sure fire method of Pretending to be the GREATEST, but only in the LIE department.

Noir

07-07-2015, 08:35 PM

Drummond

07-07-2015, 09:17 PM

Exactly right! Obama and his imaginary wizards of everything financial didn't really solve anything. Aside from simply Printing more Money...not backed by anything, other than political BS. What took place with all the HARP stuff, from the Bush years as well...just served to KICK THAT CAN DOWN THE ROAD. Much like Obama is doing again with his NON-Foreign Policy. Instead of laying blame as he did before. He's happy to create a legacy of PUSHING ALL THE PROBLEMS he never was qualified to handle..to the next Occupant of the White House.Of course. WE THE PEOPLE (who pay attention), know what he is, and has been doing. But he also knows. His ability to FOOL MOST OF THE PEOPLE...ALL OF THE TIME...namely those dependent on Government, is a sure fire method of Pretending to be the GREATEST, but only in the LIE department.:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:

Drummond

07-07-2015, 09:30 PM

It may be easier to say 'they should have just accepted the austerity presented', from a spectators viewpoint, but those that will be hit hardest by that will be the sick, elderly, unemployed, families and so on.

Being told 'this deal is terrible, but it can't get worse and could possibly get better' is reason enough to consider voting as the majority did.

I'm sure there are people on the left rejoicing in the failing of capitalism, and people on the right rejoicing over the failing of socialism, and both need something more meaningful to do with their time.

Noir, I've indicated, above, the great flaw in your argument.

IT CAN'T GET WORSE, was that wording ... that assurance. What rot. More, what OBVIOUS rot !!

With Greece utterly, provably, determined to make the EU's repayment terms work, the EU would have worked with Greece, with Greece being shown to be a trusted partner in the deal.

Instead, along came Leftie moonshine peddlars, and led Greece into default. Were they sorry ? WERE THEY HECK. No, they went back to the Greek people, told them the EU were 'terrorists' for keeping to a previously AGREED deal ... then obtained a wrecking-mandate from them.

So, IT CAN'T GET WORSE, you say. Really ?

Greece's banks are nearly out of money. No deal to replace the previous one has been drawn up, much less agreed .. IF it will be !! If agreed, there's a good chance that Greek banks will be out of money days before it's ratified and further funding is made. If no acceptable deal emerges, no more cash will be paid, and Greece will have to print fiscally unsupportable money of its own.

Weimar Germany, Noir, with rampaging inflation from printing worthless money, saw Germans carting wheelbarrow-loads of money to buy a loaf of bread.

So tell me, Noir, was Weimar Germany's day-to-day experience not WORSE than the current Greek one ??

Noir

07-08-2015, 08:43 AM

Drummond

07-09-2015, 12:14 PM

From the position of an average Greek my reckoning is that things could only get worse if the eurozone let it be so, and there may be an air of denial (or more optimistically - a plea to humanity) that Europe will not impassibly stand idle as Greece capitulates.

Though I think this judgement/hope may be proven wrong, and Europe will seek to make an example of Greece, for which the Greek people should have our empthay.

Correction, Noir: the GREEK side has made things worse - a whole lot worse, maybe even terminally so - by tearing up the previous bailout terms. We see the effective result .. limbo, with Greek banks losing money at a nearly disastrous rate.

I say 'nearly' .. it was first expected they'd run out of funds completely, hours ago. Apparently, the highly controlled dripfeed of 50 Euros per day per customer account is still continuing. Of course, the ridiculous promise to OPEN banks on Tuesday wasn't honoured, and they stay closed.

The Eurozone is the victim in all of this. They entered into bailout arrangements in good faith. A bunch of Greek Lefties came along, tore up those arrangements, pleaded poverty, insisting that the EU throws more money at them for less in return. And .. we don't even know, yet, what that 'less' even entails !! How ridiculous is THAT ?? We're still waiting for Greece to spell out its own alternative proposals !!!!!

Just hours to go, now, before the new deadline (which the EU had no need to grant them, remember !!) expires. At time of typing ... still NOTHING, yet, heard from the Greek side. Really, Noir, the criminal irresponsibility of all that the Greek Lefties have done in recent weeks is the stuff of nightmares.

No, Noir. It's Greece that has behaved dishonourably throughout. Perhaps the Greek people were conned ... perhaps they genuinely craved this insane chaos. Either way .. the Left have led Greece to their financial abyss.

For me, whether or not Greece is deserving of empathy, to me, comes down to whether its people really were incapable of arriving at decent and honourable decisions in all of this. If they were able to properly judge their situation, I have all the sympathy for them that I'd have for a criminal who knowingly and purposefully commits a crime.

Gunny

07-09-2015, 12:25 PM

Poor Greece. I've heard that a big part of the problem is that government workers are overpaid and do little. (not that that is unique to Greece)

I loved living in Greece. One of my favorite places ever. Greeks are cool and make the best bread in the universe.

What one REALLY needs to ponder is what is the difference between Greece and the EU, and that loan Obama took from China.

Drummond

07-09-2015, 04:10 PM

aboutime

07-09-2015, 05:57 PM

I've heard a report which says that Greece have now submitted new proposals to the EU (the ECB, I think). The indication of progress only came through after 9PM, my time, which in mainland Europe means just after 10PM.I tell you .. if I were a Greek citizen, this very timing would anger me, and make me wonder at the competence of the Greek Government, on that basis alone.Greece -- facing financial ruin, if it can't find a way of staying afloat. Their creditors' trust in Greece is now at a low ebb. Greece must be acutely aware of that, and yet, they try the patience of the EU even further by their VERY last-minute proposal submission, only apparently received around two hours before the deadline would've passed.Incredible. Leftie irresponsibility is a disgusting thing ... do they have total contempt for the people they conned into voting for them ??Sir Drummond. You hit the nail right on the head. The Leftie (American version), and their Irresponsibility to anyone except THEIR OWN political careers, is exactly how, and why Greece is displaying so many of the very same symptoms of FAILURE that many of our Once, Finest Cities are now feeling from the top, down. And all of those cites are controlled, and being destroyed by Liberal, Democrat administrations who enjoy the same abilities to EXTORT from the people as Obama.

Kathianne

07-09-2015, 09:27 PM

Merkel blinks:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11730086/Greek-deal-in-sight-as-Germany-bows-to-huge-global-pressure-for-debt-relief.html

Greek deal in sight as Germany bows to huge global pressure for debt relief By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/), Mehreen Khan7:40PM BST 09 Jul 2015

Angela Merkel faces a defining moment in her political career as chorus of voices push for Greek debt relief

Germany is at last bowing to pressure as a chorus of countries and key institutions demand debt relief for Greece, a shift that could break the five-month stalemate and avert a potentially disastrous rupture of monetary union at this Sunday’s last-ditch summit.

In a highly significant move, the European Council has called on both sides to make major concessions, insisting that the creditor powers must do their part as the radical Syriza government puts forward a new raft of proposals on economic reforms before a deadline expires tonight.

...

Drummond

07-09-2015, 10:21 PM

Merkel blinks:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11730086/Greek-deal-in-sight-as-Germany-bows-to-huge-global-pressure-for-debt-relief.html

With your article timed two hours before the Greeks supplied their proposals, Kathianne, I doubt that any change of mood from the Germans could have made any change to the submission Greece had cobbled together, this almost at the last minute .. which will mean that the Greek Lefties have double cause to argue that it was in the face of their unchanging defiance of their situation which led to a German climbdown, IF in fact this is on the cards.

This is important, because each side has to present what they're doing in the best possible light to their voting public. The Greek Lefties could show this as 'proof' that reneging on their previously-agreed arrangement, and sticking to their guns afterwards, was actually the right thing to do. Which is quite a precedent to set !

This (apart from the affordability and viability of the new terms themselves) would, if agreement is reached, create two separate problems. One: the Germans are already unhappy with how much money Greece has cost them .. this has long been a matter of rich nations throwing money at a poor one, for precious little ACTUAL stable payback. A laxer deal will make that even worse. Two: even worse will be the spectacle of Greece provably 'bucking the system'. Other nations, like Italy, Spain, Portugal, will wonder what's to stop them from negotiating more advantageous deals for themselves. So, the Euro becomes ever-more unstable.

The EU surely has to weigh all this up in its deliberations between now and Sunday. Otherwise, we could see Greece still tied to a shared currency, still profiting from its delusional state of superficial viability, while the Euro slowly shatters from the stresses and strains increasingly placed upon it by all of its weaker 'customers'.

Kathianne

07-10-2015, 06:30 AM

With your article timed two hours before the Greeks supplied their proposals, Kathianne, I doubt that any change of mood from the Germans could have made any change to the submission Greece had cobbled together, this almost at the last minute .. which will mean that the Greek Lefties have double cause to argue that it was in the face of their unchanging defiance of their situation which led to a German climbdown, IF in fact this is on the cards.

This is important, because each side has to present what they're doing in the best possible light to their voting public. The Greek Lefties could show this as 'proof' that reneging on their previously-agreed arrangement, and sticking to their guns afterwards, was actually the right thing to do. Which is quite a precedent to set !

This (apart from the affordability and viability of the new terms themselves) would, if agreement is reached, create two separate problems. One: the Germans are already unhappy with how much money Greece has cost them .. this has long been a matter of rich nations throwing money at a poor one, for precious little ACTUAL stable payback. A laxer deal will make that even worse. Two: even worse will be the spectacle of Greece provably 'bucking the system'. Other nations, like Italy, Spain, Portugal, will wonder what's to stop them from negotiating more advantageous deals for themselves. So, the Euro becomes ever-more unstable.

The EU surely has to weigh all this up in its deliberations between now and Sunday. Otherwise, we could see Greece still tied to a shared currency, still profiting from its delusional state of superficial viability, while the Euro slowly shatters from the stresses and strains increasingly placed upon it by all of its weaker 'customers'.

I didn't write the article! LOL! I do hope you're right. Time will tell.

Drummond

07-10-2015, 07:47 PM

I didn't write the article! LOL! I do hope you're right. Time will tell.

Sorry, Kathianne - clumsy wording on my part !:laugh:

Kathianne

07-10-2015, 07:51 PM

Sorry, Kathianne - clumsy wording on my part !:laugh:

No problem!

Drummond

07-10-2015, 08:13 PM

Another day has come and gone (well, it HAS, in my part of the world ... after 2AM, as I type ...). With it, so has another farce.

It's like buses. You wait ages for one, then three farces come along all at once.

-- So, then. Some measure of detail as to what Greece has proposed has been reported by the BBC. Not a lot of detail to it, but apparently we know that Greece has proposed a reforming of pensions, also tax increases, these on top of the burdens the Greeks were already suffering before. Oh, and as Lefties always try and do, they've singled the better off for tax hikes ...

The BBC reports that much of what the Greek Government REJECTED from the EU before, is actually in the revised proposals !! The proposals therefore do NOT abandon austerity in Greece, which, after all, was the point of the 'NO' vote last Sunday, in their Referendum !!!

So, if the BBC has this right, the Greek Leftie Government reneged on a due payment on 30th June, reneged on the terms of the bailouts they were getting .. and now, they've reneged on the mandate the Greek people gave them, WHICH THEY ASKED TO BE GIVEN !!!

I suppose a charitable interpretation is to say that the Leftie Government of Greece woke up to reality and realised, after all, that austerity measures were as completely unavoidable as they were sensible. But even the BBC is speculating that all the Lefties were ever interested in was raising two fingers to the EU, and weren't serious about anything else. A gesture made, throwing Greece's very viability to the edge of ruin, just to act childishly defiant .. to 'bite the hand that feeds you' .. ? REALLY ??

I am unaware that Greece's Government has apologised to its people for reneging on the Referendum. Or for misrepresenting their intentions. Or has openly admitted that austerity is the ONLY solution Greece really has, that'll lead to eventual salvation in a measured, plannable way.

In short - NEVER TRUST A LEFTIE. NOT WHAT THEY SAY. NOT WHAT THEY PREACH. NOT WHAT THEY INTEND TO DO. NONE OF IT.

Drummond

07-11-2015, 10:09 AM

From BBC News ... see ..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-33491952

A comment -

Sophia Zachariadi voted for Syriza in the election and 'No' in the referendum on creditors reform plans for Greece.
Many of the proposals have now been adopted by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras - and Ms Zachariadi is not happy. She told BBC Newshour:

How can a left-wing party decide this and take austerity measures? I don't think that this society can stand another three years of austerity measures, not only economically but psychologically. I feel betrayed because I know what I wanted

Here, we have a Leftie party in Government that defies the will of its own people, less than a week after receiving a Referendum result THEY asked for, which they've lost no time in reneging on !!

Unless Greece is now set to go crashing out of the Euro currency, it seems to me that Greece's Lefties have but one honourable path open to them. It's this ...

Make an address to the Greek people. Explain to them that they were wrong to ever advocate, much less seek approval for, any defiance of austerity measures. The fiscal realities of Greece should be publicly spelled out once and for all, it should be made clear that Greece has simply no choice but to face and comply with reality's demands, no matter how unpleasant, because nothing else can work.

If they give an abject apology for the delusions they've fed their electorate, so much the better.

Drummond

07-12-2015, 10:26 AM

Latest update: it's currently reported that the EU meeting planned for later today has been cancelled. See ...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33499650

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has called the talks on Greece's debt rescue "extremely difficult" and ruled out "agreement at any price".

She was speaking as she arrived in Brussels for a meeting of the other 18 eurozone leaders to discuss the deal. They are considering proposals by eurozone finance ministers which would impose tough conditions on Athens.

Greece risks being ejected from the eurozone if a deal to rescue it from financial collapse is not reached.

Finnish Finance Minister Alex Stubb said one condition in the ministers' proposal requires Greece to implement new laws by Wednesday.

Greece will also be required to introduce tough conditions on labour reform, VAT and taxes, and tough measures on privatisation and privatisation funds, Mr Stubb told reporters.

The head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, said a "couple of big issues" remain which would be left to the heads of government to rule on, though he did not give details.

Mrs Merkel told reporters that the eurozone leaders would be considering whether "the conditions are met" to start negotiations on a third bailout. "That's what is at stake, nothing more and nothing less," she said. But she warned that there would be "no agreement at any price", adding: "We have to make sure the pros outweigh the cons - for Greece's future, for the entire eurozone and the principles of our collaboration."

Mr Tsipras was more upbeat, telling reporters: "I'm here ready for an honest compromise... we can reach an agreement tonight if all parties want it."

So, unwarranted and unsupported optimism, apparently, from the Greek side .. who'll no doubt lay the blame, as they appear to be preparing to do, against the EU should agreement not be reached and Greece suffers meltdown.

Reports say that the big issue the EU as a whole has with Greece is now one of trust. Offering terms is one thing. Will they be kept to, or reneged on again, when the going gets tough ?

It's a bit difficult to trust Lefties (.. at the best of times ..) especially when fiscal arrangements previously agreed upon are torn up, a due payment not made, those who'd arrange further bailouts are called 'terrorists'. When those Lefties seek, and get, a mandate to pursue an anti-austerity programme .. then they promptly renege on THAT, offering new austerity terms !!

Greek Lefties, who'll bite the hand that feeds them and not apologise, nor show humility or conscience. Greek Lefties who'll betray a mandate THEY SOUGHT TO GET, FROM THEIR OWN PEOPLE, and do so within a matter of hours. Greek Lefties who've proven themselves untrustworthy to everyone they deal with. Is it any wonder that the EU now has an issue of trust with the Greek side ??

We wait to see if that distrust is something which the EU, ultimately, cannot accommodate.

Kathianne

07-12-2015, 12:13 PM

I saw that too. Thanks!

Drummond

07-13-2015, 11:53 AM

So, Greece has managed to get a deal with the EU after all. Talks went on throughout the night, were reported as 'fractious' at times. At one point, Cipras (the Greek PM) disappeared from sight, and people started to speculate that he'd walked out and was heading back to Greece ! Turned out that he'd just gone to the bathroom ......

Greece's agreement brings them a lot MORE austerity than they'd have otherwise had, if they'd never torn up the previous agreement and reneged on a due payment. Their Referendum of a week ago was not only meaningless, but very damaging, because of the massive amount of lost trust. Lost trust in the Leftie Government, by the Greek people, who saw their leaders defy the mandate they'd received within days of SEEKING it, then GETTING it. Lost trust from the EU, who'd have seen that occur, as well as being deeply unhappy about the 'two fingers' raised at them when the original agreement was torn up (and being called 'terrorists' couldn't have helped ..).

The new deal was difficult to get full agreement to because the EU is, now, highly distrustful of Greece. It's tougher, because of that distrust, since the EU have to be confident of no more reneging from the Greeks. So it is that the EU is demanding that the Greek Parliament not only ratifies the agreement by midweek, but that legislative changes are made to allow the terms of the agreement to become fully enforceable in Greece by law.

I understand that emergency funding to Greece's banks will occur once the EU sees Greece fully comply with that demand. Cipras will probably have to depend on cooperation from the opposition Parties to ensure this happens, as some of his own Party are unhappy with him.

The BBC and Sky News reporters were out on the streets of Athens, trying to get public reaction. Nobody at all would be interviewed by the BBC, this showing some remarkable (if belated) good judgment on their part. Sky News was 'luckier' ... they got a couple of interviews. The most memorable was from a loudmouth who was so affronted by the deal (he may have been a Leftie, unfortunately) that he said 'a war is coming with the EU, Greece will win it'. Another individual said the EU was 'being vindictive' to Greece. Yet another held Germany, specifically, to blame for the nature of the deal.

So some degree of insane delusion still exists in some Greek people, it seems. Still, a rejection of self-responsibility and of harsh realities, just because they ARE harsh.

Both channels report that Greeks feels humiliated by what's happened, that the EU is punishing them for recent events ... since the terms of agreement are lot tougher than before. 'A sense of shock', the reporters say, is palpable throughout Greece today.

Well .... what Greece has got, today, is a position WHICH ITS UNTRUSTWORTHY LEFTIES PUT THEM IN. Had they just faced reality, and kept to the original bailout arrangements, they'd have been substantially better off, not least because trust would've been preserved. As it is, trust has been shattered.

It's the terrible price of playing the Left's game; of giving them power, then believing in them as 'responsible' holders of it. In my country, they couldn't be trusted with the economy, the biggest reason why the Conservatives, here, won their election. In Greece ... they've reneged on EVERYTHING, so far.

It's something of a miracle that the EU was willing to tolerate them any further. Ordinary Greeks will have to pay a heavy price for their Lefties' behaviour.

Gunny

07-13-2015, 01:00 PM

Drummond

07-13-2015, 11:13 PM

Here's the problem from my POV: (if anyone else besides me has lived in Greece feel free to correct me)

They produce grapes, raisins and olives. Their GNP isn't exactly a money making event. Raisins are cheap, so's wine, and so are olives. You can get all of that from Modesto, CA without paying an import fee. THEN add their socialist government to the mix. At least when I lived there it was a military dictatorship. Not to mention our Cold War dollars propped them up. The Cold War was the best thing that ever happened to Western Europe since we paid for everything.

And I agree wholly with NT ... this is what socialism gets you. Now look at who is president and look at our lying-ass MSM. We won't be first. Just next.

All good points, so far as I can see.

Still, it begs the question: if their revenue-base (acquisition of) is such a weak one, then why would anyone think it worthwhile to chuck massive funds at them at all ? Why, in fact, were they ever permitted to join the Euro in the first place ?

The reports we had all said that by far the biggest sticking-point to getting any new deal thrashed out was whether Greece could be trusted not to renege on it (again). Ability to pay was certainly a factor, but that was as a result of so much backsliding (corruption, etc) over so many years as anything else.

Now, they've got a bunch of Lefties in charge (nominally, given the new, even stricter austerity criteria) who, so far, have shown that they'll renege on anything in sight, including their own peoples' trust. Latest reports now indicate that the Greek people are furious with the EU, but maybe even more with Cipras and his gang.

But it testifies to the sickness of their delusionary state that what they really hate is Cipras's reneging on his promise to defy austerity ... as if Greece is in such a GOOD position, that it has no need of such measures !! You'd have thought that Greek banks nearly running out of cash might've taught them SOMETHING ... !!!

I'm sorry, but I really think there's something fundamentally wrong with the Greek people as a whole. Why is it so very difficult to get them to understand the precariousness of their position ?? Will it take the total collapse of their banking system, people starving because they've no means of buying food, hospitals unable to purchase drugs to help heal the sick, events such as these, before they'll finally REALISE where they really stand ???

Kathianne

07-14-2015, 07:01 AM

I'm pretty sure we're going to see this play out again, a few months or years down the road.

Drummond

07-14-2015, 04:26 PM

I'm pretty sure we're going to see this play out again, a few months or years down the road.

Yes, I'm in little doubt that you're right. Cipras (or 'Tsipras', depending on what report you take notice of ..) is surely going to go down in history as 'The Great Reneger'.

He reneged on the previous payment terms, and defaulted on a due payment. He reneged on the agreement it was meant to satisfy. He and his fellow Lefties went to the Greek people and wanted them to vote against austerity in a Referendum. They duly did so. With such a mandate sought and obtained, within just DAYS, Cipras reneged on THAT, actually choosing to offer terms at least as harsh as the previous ones.

He emerged from marathon talks with the EU, having signed up to terms tougher still ... made that way because of all the trust that had been eroded thanks to his antics. And now ... he's just declared that he is representing an austerity package HE HIMSELF DOESN'T AGREE WITH. So ... having reneged against everyone else, be it the EU or the Greek people, he's topped that by reneging against HIMSELF !!

Maybe he's just a raving nutter.

Regardless, it's literally impossible, by this stage, to have the smallest reason to trust him and his cronies on anything. If he tells you that the world is round, it's worth checking to be sure .......

Noir

07-15-2015, 08:09 AM

Some interesting reading today regarding German companies involvement in Greek corruption, somewhat ironic given the German position on Greece. As for Siemens specifically, remarkable.

Max R.

07-15-2015, 09:41 AM

I'm pretty sure we're going to see this play out again, a few months or years down the road.
agreed. Greece is a money pit. The EU investors are gambling that Greece will be able to pay off the debt. IMO, better to accept the loss, boot Greece from the EU and work toward a better future with fiscally responsible nations. It would also serve as a warning to the other EU nations which are spending beyond their means.

fj1200

07-15-2015, 09:56 AM

agreed. Greece is a money pit. The EU investors are gambling that Greece will be able to pay off the debt. IMO, better to accept the loss, boot Greece from the EU and work toward a better future with fiscally responsible nations. It would also serve as a warning to the other EU nations which are spending beyond their means.

I disagree that they are gambling that Greece will be able to pay off the debt; there is almost zero chance of that. I think they're paying the price for monetary stability.

Max R.

07-15-2015, 10:12 AM

I disagree that they are gambling that Greece will be able to pay off the debt; there is almost zero chance of that. I think they're paying the price for monetary stability.
If that were true, then why are they continuing to throw money into a bottomless pit?

I think they hope to find a way for Greece to return to solvency.

fj1200

07-15-2015, 10:19 AM

If that were true, then why are they continuing to throw money into a bottomless pit?

I think they hope to find a way for Greece to return to solvency.

Why? Monetary stability, i.e. the survival of the Euro.

I hope they find a way as well but they don't seem to be analyzing what has worked (nothing) and what has not (austerity). Austerity is working so well that they've needed seven rounds... and counting. :rolleyes:

See also

Second austerity package (Greece) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_austerity_package_(Greece))
Third austerity package (Greece) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_austerity_package_(Greece))
Fourth austerity package (Greece) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_austerity_package_(Greece))
Fifth austerity package (Greece) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_austerity_package_(Greece))
Sixth austerity package (Greece) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_austerity_package_(Greece))
Seventh austerity package (Greece) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seventh_austerity_package_(Greece))

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/EmploymentAndUnemploymentInGreece.png

http://financemymoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/greek-gdp-to-debt.jpg

Drummond

07-15-2015, 11:07 AM

Why? Monetary stability, i.e. the survival of the Euro.

I hope they find a way as well but they don't seem to be analyzing what has worked (nothing) and what has not (austerity). Austerity is working so well that they've needed seven rounds... and counting. :rolleyes:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/EmploymentAndUnemploymentInGreece.png

http://financemymoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/greek-gdp-to-debt.jpg

Austerity measures are a way to balance the books - and the only one open to Greece, unless they want to be kicked out of the EU, reinvent the Drachma, print money they cannot back up with real fiscal value, and risk a rerun of the disaster that was Weimar Germany.

You believe in your long-held mantra of 'austerity sucks', and indeed, it's a far from pleasant action to implement. But it's the only hope Greece has, however far down the line eventual recovery might come.

Reinventing a worthless currency is a useless idea ... unless you're a wheelbarrow manufacturer, that is, and want to sell money-carriers to a desperate Public.

The EU could just write off some of Greece's debts, but NOT without consequences. Quite apart from the loss of revenue involved, it'd send a terrible signal to other countries. Others might take your 'austerity sucks' mantra to heart, copy Greece's irresponsibility, and destabilise the Euro, destabilising their home economies in the process. What all that would do to share values and world markets doesn't bear thinking about. Who knows ... a worst case scenario might involve a not dissimilar crisis to 2008, with banking systems thrown out of kilter.

Greek Lefties fully believe in your 'austerity sucks' mantra. This is one example of your thinking mirroring the hard-line Left in Greece. I would say they 'live by it', if it weren't for all the reneging they've been doing lately ... trouble is, that even hardliners like Tsipras have been forced to face reality and knuckle under to painful truths.

A pity that you're so immovable on this yourself that you can't depart from Left-wing delusionary thinking, as even the Greek Government has done.

Next time you want to portray yourself as any version of a Right wing thinker, remember, you were more loyal to the Greek Leftie position than THEY were !

fj1200

07-15-2015, 11:38 AM

Austerity measures are a way to balance the books - and the only one open to Greece, unless they want to be kicked out of the EU, reinvent the Drachma, print money they cannot back up with real fiscal value, and risk a rerun of the disaster that was Weimar Germany.

Fallacies. It's not the only option and so far that option has made their situation worse. They were never Weimar Germany in the first place.

You believe in your long-held mantra of 'austerity sucks', and indeed, it's a far from pleasant action to implement. But it's the only hope Greece has, however far down the line eventual recovery might come.

Please indicate which round of austerity resulted in a better outcome for Greece, the average Greek, or even Greece's financial position. Until you can then my austerity sucks "mantra" remains true and valid.

Reinventing a worthless currency is a useless idea ... unless you're a wheelbarrow manufacturer, that is, and want to sell money-carriers to a desperate Public.

Fallacy, I didn't suggest that they do.

The EU could just write off some of Greece's debts, but NOT without consequences. Quite apart from the loss of revenue involved, it'd send a terrible signal to other countries. Others might take your 'austerity sucks' mantra to heart, copy Greece's irresponsibility, and destabilise the Euro, destabilising their home economies in the process. What all that would do to share values and world markets doesn't bear thinking about. Who knows ... a worst case scenario might involve a not dissimilar crisis to 2008, with banking systems thrown out of kilter.

IIRC debtholders have already been haircut at least once. Your worst case scenario is not a given.

Greek Lefties fully believe in your 'austerity sucks' mantra. This is one example of your thinking mirroring the hard-line Left in Greece. I would say they 'live by it', if it weren't for all the reneging they've been doing lately ... trouble is, that even hardliners like Tsipras have been forced to face reality and knuckle under to painful truths.

Because they understand what they've lived through for 7 years. My position bears zero resemblance to the Greek left except for the unfortunate reality of austerity; Unless they wish for lower taxes, lower regulations, etc. which would be a welcome surprise.

A pity that you're so immovable on this yourself that you can't depart from Left-wing delusionary thinking, as even the Greek Government has done.

Next time you want to portray yourself as any version of a Right wing thinker, remember, you were more loyal to the Greek Leftie position than THEY were !

:rolleyes:

Max R.

07-15-2015, 11:50 AM

Drummond

07-15-2015, 12:04 PM

Fallacies. It's not the only option and so far that option has made their situation worse. They were never Weimar Germany in the first place.

The Greek Lefties were firmly anti-austerity. They won an election on it. They held a Referendum which gained them a 'no' vote against continuing with it. SO .. if what you say is true, how come your Greek buddies didn't find that alternative option, and work towards implementing it ?

It didn't happen. Tsipras & gang got one almighty whiff of reality, and so signed up to an even tougher austerity package ! Tsipras is on record as saying that he 'doesn't believe in it' ... BUT REALITY BEING WHAT IT IS, HE WENT THE AUSTERITY ROUTE NONETHELESS.

Austerity measures ARE the only realistic option. I know it. Greeks hate it, but for all their bluster, they also know it. But you are so wedded to that Left wing line that you refuse to depart from it, even despite Greece's reality that's staring you in the face.

Please indicate which round of austerity resulted in a better outcome for Greece, the average Greek, or even Greece's financial position. Until you can then my austerity sucks "mantra" remains true and valid.

????????????????????

Answer: ANY and ALL of them. For example, the latest implementation of measures allows a further bailout to occur. Banks get money, and stay in business. Greeks start to get money in their pockets. They have enough to feed themselves !!

Being able to eat definitely qualifies as a better outcome. Better than banks forced into protracted closure, haemmorhaging money, however dripfed, to the point of bankruptcy.

Fallacy, I didn't suggest that they do.

Nonetheless, the idea is sound. You can hold a great many banknotes in a wheelbarrow.

Tell you what. If the Greeks do their reneging act again and are thrown out of the Euro currency, travel to Greece. You'll find all sorts of people suddenly regarding wheelbarrows as their best friends.

IIRC debtholders have already been haircut at least once. Your worst case scenario is not a given.

Dream on.

Because they understand what they've lived through for 7 years. My position bears zero resemblance to the Greek left except for the unfortunate reality of austerity; Unless they wish for lower taxes, lower regulations, etc. which would be a welcome surprise.

Correction: if they FULLY understood it, they'd understand that debts have to be paid, that biting the hand that feeds you is really NOT a good idea.

They of course DO wish for lower taxes and lower regulations. Trouble is, there's a little thing out there called THE REAL WORLD. Tsipras and mob got a good, strong taste of it in their marathon overnight negotiations with EU leaders, just days ago.

You can't buck reality. Tsipras, despite trying to, found this out. We see the result being played out ...

:rolleyes:

Editing the truth doesn't cease to make it so.

tailfins

07-15-2015, 12:15 PM

Austerity measures are a way to balance the books - and the only one open to Greece, unless they want to be kicked out of the EU, reinvent the Drachma, print money they cannot back up with real fiscal value, and risk a rerun of the disaster that was Weimar Germany.

You believe in your long-held mantra of 'austerity sucks', and indeed, it's a far from pleasant action to implement. But it's the only hope Greece has, however far down the line eventual recovery might come.

Reinventing a worthless currency is a useless idea ... unless you're a wheelbarrow manufacturer, that is, and want to sell money-carriers to a desperate Public.

The EU could just write off some of Greece's debts, but NOT without consequences. Quite apart from the loss of revenue involved, it'd send a terrible signal to other countries. Others might take your 'austerity sucks' mantra to heart, copy Greece's irresponsibility, and destabilise the Euro, destabilising their home economies in the process. What all that would do to share values and world markets doesn't bear thinking about. Who knows ... a worst case scenario might involve a not dissimilar crisis to 2008, with banking systems thrown out of kilter.

Greek Lefties fully believe in your 'austerity sucks' mantra. This is one example of your thinking mirroring the hard-line Left in Greece. I would say they 'live by it', if it weren't for all the reneging they've been doing lately ... trouble is, that even hardliners like Tsipras have been forced to face reality and knuckle under to painful truths.

A pity that you're so immovable on this yourself that you can't depart from Left-wing delusionary thinking, as even the Greek Government has done.

Next time you want to portray yourself as any version of a Right wing thinker, remember, you were more loyal to the Greek Leftie position than THEY were !

So we have you on record as supporting tax increases? It's not actually necessary for Greece to have a currency. They could use the US Dollar or Pound Sterling. There's no fix for something that was built broken. The best solution is for both Greece and the UK to completely end their membership in the European Union.

Drummond

07-15-2015, 10:38 PM

So we have you on record as supporting tax increases?

What you have me on record as doing, Tailfins, is facing reality.

Greece does not have a normal economy !! So, treating Greece as though it did makes not the slightest sense.

Besides which .. the normal capitalistic approach, that of wealth generation through entrepreneurial spirit, unfettered by heavy-handed State interference, presupposes that the bedrock basis for wealth generation is already in place. You can't run before you can walk. BUT ... Greece, these days, is different. It has a basket-case of an economy ... and its creditors, in bailing it out again and again, want assurances that Greece will do all in its power to pay what is due.

Since the Greek Lefties have proven themselves untrustworthy, especially harsh and controlling terms have proven necessary.

The UK had its own Lefties in power, beset by the 2008 banking crisis, and their solution was to spend their way out of trouble .. with other peoples' money. They were irresponsible in their way, just as the Greek Lefties have tried to be, now. Along came their replacements, in my country, and took a more fiscally responsible approach, that of reining back all unnecessary expenditures. Cutbacks. Their own version of an austerity package. And it worked, is working, for us. Our economy is stable. Inflation is at an all-time low, and our economy is growing.

And yes, our CONSERVATIVES arranged all that. We face reality, you see. It's trademark thinking of the Left that chooses to defy reality whenever it can, going in for propagandist mantras which state an idea as though reality could never, and should never, intrude upon it.

Simple fact: you can't have a generous tax regime if, in the process, you rob yourself of revenue you badly need ! Tax cuts HAVE TO BE AFFORDABLE. The Greeks are light years away from such a luxury.

It's not actually necessary for Greece to have a currency. They could use the US Dollar or Pound Sterling.

But, then, you tie your fortunes in with the strength or weakness of the dollar, or the pound. Surrender yourself to that, and you surrender a measure of autonomy. How can you plan for a strong economy, if the currency you're trading in undergoes a period of decline, thanks to forces outside of your control ?

There's no fix for something that was built broken. The best solution is for both Greece and the UK to completely end their membership in the European Union.

On this, I agree !!

... although the EU and the Euro aren't the same thing, of course. The UK is a member of the EU, but not a member of the Euro currency. And, can I say this ... there isn't ANYONE here, Left or Right wing, who thinks we should join the Euro, and surrender our fate to a currency not our own !

But the shared Euro currency was always a stupid idea. Makes sense if all the members of it have the same levels of stability. This being untrue in some instances, stresses and strains will be applied to the currency's worth, and everyone tied into it suffers.

fj1200

07-16-2015, 08:24 AM

So, in your opinion, it makes more sense to constantly throw $60 Billion at Greece once a year rather than boot them out of the EU and write off the loses? How long should other members of the EU keep rewarding bad behavior?

No, in my opinion Germany and the EU value currency stability over the value of an additional bailout right now. They shouldn't reward bad behavior but it seems they are too far down the rabbit hole; no one is in a better position now than when the first round of bailouts and austerity began, not the EU and not Greece.

fj1200

07-16-2015, 08:50 AM

The Greek Lefties were firmly anti-austerity. They won an election on it. They held a Referendum which gained them a 'no' vote against continuing with it. SO .. if what you say is true, how come your Greek buddies didn't find that alternative option, and work towards implementing it ?

It didn't happen. Tsipras & gang got one almighty whiff of reality, and so signed up to an even tougher austerity package ! Tsipras is on record as saying that he 'doesn't believe in it' ... BUT REALITY BEING WHAT IT IS, HE WENT THE AUSTERITY ROUTE NONETHELESS.

Austerity measures ARE the only realistic option. I know it. Greeks hate it, but for all their bluster, they also know it. But you are so wedded to that Left wing line that you refuse to depart from it, even despite Greece's reality that's staring you in the face.

Just because it's the one they chose doesn't mean it was the only option. They're lefties and not particularly smart in the ways of economics and I imagine fear of the unknown overcame fear of the known. Besides, the Greeks want to stay in the Euro apparently.

????????????????????

Answer: ANY and ALL of them. For example, the latest implementation of measures allows a further bailout to occur. Banks get money, and stay in business. Greeks start to get money in their pockets. They have enough to feed themselves !!

Being able to eat definitely qualifies as a better outcome. Better than banks forced into protracted closure, haemmorhaging money, however dripfed, to the point of bankruptcy.

Of course you don't really have an answer because there is no objective measure that shows that the Greeks are better off now than they were before seven rounds of austerity. The EU and IMF are not even in a better position as Greek debt to GDP levels are 50% higher now than before. They don't understand the past and are doomed to repeat their failures.

Nonetheless, the idea is sound. You can hold a great many banknotes in a wheelbarrow.

Tell you what. If the Greeks do their reneging act again and are thrown out of the Euro currency, travel to Greece. You'll find all sorts of people suddenly regarding wheelbarrows as their best friends.

Repeating your doomsday doesn't make it valid. Besides I don't think they should adopt a new drachma, they should adopt currency substitution.

Dream on.

Correction: if they FULLY understood it, they'd understand that debts have to be paid, that biting the hand that feeds you is really NOT a good idea.

They of course DO wish for lower taxes and lower regulations. Trouble is, there's a little thing out there called THE REAL WORLD. Tsipras and mob got a good, strong taste of it in their marathon overnight negotiations with EU leaders, just days ago.

You can't buck reality. Tsipras, despite trying to, found this out. We see the result being played out ...

Dream on? There has already been at least one round of haircuts. In 2011; do some research.

Recent history proves you wrong; austerity and the bailouts have failed. The EU will not get their money back; you blustering about debts doesn't change that. Unfortunately all of these wrong decisions have made the Greek people RUN towards the left parties.

Editing the truth doesn't cease to make it so.

You have no truth, repeating your imagination doesn't make it true as I have shown in countless threads. Open up one of those so you don't have to derail this one.

fj1200

07-16-2015, 09:00 AM

What you have me on record as doing, Tailfins, is facing reality.

...

Simple fact: you can't have a generous tax regime if, in the process, you rob yourself of revenue you badly need ! Tax cuts HAVE TO BE AFFORDABLE. The Greeks are light years away from such a luxury.

:rolleyes: With conservatives like you, who needs lefties.

But, then, you tie your fortunes in with the strength or weakness of the dollar, or the pound. Surrender yourself to that, and you surrender a measure of autonomy. How can you plan for a strong economy, if the currency you're trading in undergoes a period of decline, thanks to forces outside of your control ?

They are already tied to Europe and the US and so are tied to any fluctuation of those countries. Let the people decide which currency to use.

fj1200

07-16-2015, 09:09 AM

What relief? Greek economy on its knees despite bailout deal (http://news.yahoo.com/relief-greek-economy-knees-despite-bailout-deal-063437262.html)

...

The public debt load is unsustainable at around 180 percent of GDP — or 320 billion euros — and forecast to rise over the next two years as the economy weakens, the International Monetary Fund warned this week.Meanwhile, the budget savings the government will have to make to get the financial bailout from its European creditors will hurt economic growth. They include, among other things, tax increases that are likely to dent spending.
"Greece has already gone through (a) depression," said Megan Greene, chief economist at Manulife Asset Management. "This ensures they'll go through three more years of recession if it's implemented."
The Greek government, and many experts, say the bailout deal is needed to avoid the even worse scenario of a complete collapse in Greece's banks, which would push the country out of the euro. Economists estimate that if Greece falls out of the currency union, its economy could shrink by another 10 or 20 percent.

...

Greece needs some supply side (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply-side_economics) conservatism and they need it now. Lower marginal tax rates, deregulation, monetary stability, reduced government spending.

fj1200

07-16-2015, 09:31 AM

Brady Bonds: An Exit for Greece? (http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2011/06/24/brady-bonds-an-exit-for-greece/)

The two people quoted in the Brussels Beat column (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304569504576403803100723660.html?m od=WSJEurope_hpp_MIDDLETopStories) today are not the only ones thinking of the Brady Plan, vintage late-1980s, as a way out of the Greek debt mess. Over in New York, the Center for Financial Stability (http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/) has produced an interestingpaper (http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/research/Greece_062411.pdf) about why it believes now would be a good time to invoke it in the Greek case.Here are its main points:

A solution to the Greek debt dilemma exists.
The Economic Subcommittee (ESC) to Bank Advisory Committees during the Brady Debt restructuring era provides a blueprint for identifying common ground, deepening communication, and paving the way for the benefit of creditors and debtors alike.
Greece must reverse an economic slide – already in its third year.
Greece is now ripe for a “Brady” moment.
A Vienna Initiative approach will likely prove woefully insufficient, as the relief falls short of providing what is needed and incentives differ between Greece’s creditors and those participating in the Vienna Initiative.
History shows how debt reduction coupled with significant reform can spark growth. Brady Plan recipients all demonstrated superior growth in the five years after plan implementation – with the exception of Ecuador.
Preliminary calculations based on limited publicly available data suggest that Greece could achieve 2% to 3% growth on an annual basis with a 20% to 40% reduction of debt, principal payment re-profiling, and a meaningful reform effort. The European banking system would likely experience a manageable loss of €23.2 to €46.4 billion.
Today, the Greek situation is vastly more complex. Yet, principles from the ESC provide a framework for an honest assessment of the present situation as well as a potential pathway for resolution to the Greek debt dilemma.

Max R.

07-17-2015, 10:57 PM

What relief? Greek economy on its knees despite bailout deal (http://news.yahoo.com/relief-greek-economy-knees-despite-bailout-deal-063437262.html)

Greece needs some supply side (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply-side_economics) conservatism and they need it now. Lower marginal tax rates, deregulation, monetary stability, reduced government spending.
They certainly need something and those recommendations are good ones.

fj1200

07-20-2015, 01:07 PM

Greece does not have a normal economy !!

Any comment on my "leftie" proposals below or how Greece is immune to economic theory?

What relief? Greek economy on its knees despite bailout deal (http://news.yahoo.com/relief-greek-economy-knees-despite-bailout-deal-063437262.html)

Greece needs some supply side (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply-side_economics) conservatism and they need it now. Lower marginal tax rates, deregulation, monetary stability, reduced government spending.

Brady Bonds: An Exit for Greece? (http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2011/06/24/brady-bonds-an-exit-for-greece/)

Kathianne

07-22-2015, 10:50 AM

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-21/greeks-laugh-bankers-implore-depositors-return-money-banks-are-trustworthy

Greeks Laugh As Bankers Beg Depositors To Return Money

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)

Submitted by Tyler Durden (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden) on 07/21/2015

President of Greek Banks Association Louka Katseli appealed at the citizens to return their money to the banks. “Banks are absolutely trustworthy,” Katseli told Mega TV “as guaranteed by the ECB and the Bank Association, but they would have been even more powerful if 40 billion euros had not been withdrawn in the last months.

Katseli, a former PASOK Minister, appealed to citizens to return their deposits to the banks “now that the banks are open” after a three-week holiday and capital controls.

“Let’s all help our economy,” Katseli urged Greeks and added “If you take your money out of your chests and houses – which are not safe in any case – and deposit at banks, this will enhance liquidity.”

“There will be no need to “haircut” deposits in the future if we all act responsibly,” she added -cheerfully I suppose.

Katseli’s appeal triggered laughter among Greeks and one stressed with hint to capital controls “Oh yes! I will bring my money back to the bank and get it back 60 by 60 euro.”

Another one noted “Ah sure! Banks will never see my money again, I prefer to buy tonnes of peanuts with it.”
A third commented “Certainly. And the banks will go bust after a while…”

A fourth reckoned a very unfortunate incident in 2010 and busted into tears and laughter. Back then Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos had appealed to the Greeks to buy Greek bonds. The man invested 10,000 euro to help Greece. Two years later, his investment underwent a 53%-Haircut due to the PSI. Now the nominal value of his investment is …”I don’t even open the envelopes coming from the bank anymore, too frustrating,” he told me.

How can Greeks trust the banks after what has happened? Already many worry about their deposits as mergers of Greek banks are reportedly due. Even though they know that merger do not end in losing your money. Or does it? huh?
* * *
Incidentally, this is justt as we predicted last week. In "Greek Banks Just Became A "Strong Sell" At Any Price (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-16/greek-banks-just-became-strong-sell-any-price)" we wrote:

... even as an "unsustainable" Greece meanders day to day with yet another capital infusion to avoid a sovereign default, its insolvent banks just became the first casualty of reality. However, they may not be the only ones: recall that bank depositors are nothing more than unsecured creditors. If and when the reality of the Greek economic collapse is fully tabulated (as the IMF appears to have finally done) it won't be just the equity that is wiped out - depositors themselves face the risk of creeping haircuts to their "liabilities."

Which is why we doubt that Greek savers will rush to put their money in the banks, and why we think Draghi is taking a huge gamble by putting even more ELA into Greek banks just before the same banks will announce at any possible moment they are forced to liquidate existing shareholders. The popular outcry against the banking system once a bail in is confirmed, even if it does not involve depositors initially, will send shock waves through society and rekindle the bank run once more.

Ironically, the one thing that would help preserve confidence in the Greek banking system, is more transparency about the "performing" nature of Greek bank loans: if this amount has hit 50% (or more) on the total €210 billion of loans, then depositor haircuts become virtually inevitable - anything well below that and there would still be a modest cushion before bail-ins have to go up in the cap structure.

Which is also why we fear no transparency will be forthcoming and why we expect that people may be fooled once again into believing their savings are, well, safe only to find out the hard way they are anything but - a hard lesson that investors in insolvent Greek banks are about to learn first hand.

Sure enough, so far the score is transparency 0 - propaganda: +∞. And as duly predicted, the bank runs continue.

fj1200

07-23-2015, 08:50 AM

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-21/greeks-laugh-bankers-implore-depositors-return-money-banks-are-trustworthy

as guaranteed by the ECB and the Bank Association, but they would have been even more powerful if 40 billion euros had not been withdrawn in the last months.

Don't they have their version of FDIC over there? But I'm not surprised that they're not swayed by an ECB guarantee.

fj1200

07-23-2015, 04:08 PM

What would Reagan do? Well, I think he would cut taxes.

Greece needs some supply side (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply-side_economics) conservatism and they need it now. Lower marginal tax rates, deregulation, monetary stability, reduced government spending.

Balu

07-23-2015, 04:23 PM

What would Reagan do? Well, I think he would cut taxes.
And what then? How they manage to feel the budget? The Greeks are not ready to tighten their belts. I think they are in a zugzwang situation. http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/standart/sad.gif

fj1200

07-23-2015, 04:29 PM

And what then? How they manage to feel the budget? The Greeks are not ready to tighten their belts. I think they are in a zugzwang situation. http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/standart/sad.gif

They aren't collecting zero taxes, besides in this country our tax revenues are a function of GDP and not particular tax rates so it would be a matter of encouraging economic growth. Besides, Laffer, Keynes, and Ibn Khaldun can't all be wrong. :)

Russ

07-23-2015, 06:45 PM

Balu

07-23-2015, 06:57 PM

I agree, plus I love seeing the word "zugzwang" in a conversation. :thumb:.
I guess you are a chess player. Right? http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/standart/smile3.gif

Tyr-Ziu Saxnot

07-23-2015, 06:59 PM

I agree, plus I love seeing the word "zugzwang" in a conversation. :thumb:.

Doesn't every high level chess player? I know I do but damn sure never want to be in "zugzwang" and with several thousands chess games played I simply can not ever remember bring in zugzwang!
Tis a position one must avoid even at the cost of lesser material. -Tyr

Russ

07-23-2015, 08:19 PM

Balu - yes, I love chess. Tyr-Ziu - one of the players usually likes the zugzwang. You've got a 50% chance.
:cheers2:

Drummond

07-23-2015, 08:25 PM

I'll make this as short as I can, FJ, because I'm well aware that you'll never, ever, concede when you're wrong.

:rolleyes: With conservatives like you, who needs lefties.

Nobody does. They only think they do.

Conservatives are plugged into reality. We deal with it as best we can. You, however, are advancing monetary theorising which, regardless of reality, you won't budge from.

They are already tied to Europe and the US and so are tied to any fluctuation of those countries. Let the people decide which currency to use.

I've given an answer you've already ignored.

If a country adopts a currency that is NOT its own, then they're subject to its strengths, or weaknesses, as these apply at any one time. A country using a currency not its own loses autonomy, loses the range of freedom it may badly need to plan its own future.

In the case of Greece, isn't a part of what they're now complaining about down to a lack of fiscal autonomy ?

Here's the real point. For all of your 'anti austerity' theorising, Greece had a hard-Left Party elected which believed, just as you do, that austerity was not the way to proceed. But UNLIKE you, Greece was forced to face realities. The reality of its position requires that a degree of cash-flow continues, that their banks have funds they need to operate. Such was, and is, the fragility of the Greek economy that they were just a couple of days from complete meltdown. They needed a cash injection, and only the EU offered one.

And of course, it came as part of a package, one designed to serve the EU, just as it also serves Greece.

Greece's Hard Left got precisely nowhere with any programme of anti-austerity. It was dead in the water, literally days after their Referendum supplied a mandate for it. Why ? Because such ideas cannot possibly be grafted on to Greece's fiscal reality, and the Left were conning their people into believing otherwise .. until reality forced them to stop.

Your anti-austerity ideas are rooted in fantasy, certainly where Greece is concerned. What you've been advocating would need years for its effects to be felt. But Greece's economy cannot suspend itself from its own reality for the length of time any of that would require !

Greece doesn't need Left wing fantasising, grandiose theorising belonging to another world entirely. It needs practical approaches, applied to the practical need of the moment. You're anti high taxation ? FINE, if it CAN BE AFFORDED. BUT LOSS OF TAXATION REVENUE MEANS LESS MONEY AVAILABLE FOR ESSENTIAL SERVICES. AND WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THAT THIS WOULD BE GOOD FOR GREECE, A COUNTRY TOTALLY DESPERATE FOR MONEY EVERYWHERE IN ITS ECONOMY, ENOUGH EVEN TO WORRY ABOUT A SECURE, CONTINUED CASH FLOW, RIGHT THIS MINUTE ??

Tyr-Ziu Saxnot

07-23-2015, 09:35 PM

Balu - yes, I love chess. Tyr-Ziu - one of the players usually likes the zugzwang. You've got a 50% chance.
:cheers2:

As a very tactical and hyper aggressive attacking chess player I never played for zugzwang but did always watch out to defend against it. My highest ever rating was 2278 USCF, but did draw Filatov at chess club when his rating was 2478 if memory serves me well, that was back in late 80's/early 90's . Actually had the win in hand but agreed to a draw because he was entered in a rapid chess tournament about to start and I had at that time no clue who he was.
Only after he went upstairs to play in that tournament, did others rush over congratulate me and then explain to me who he was.
I Played right at the 2200/2300 level for about 6 years. But never pursued tournaments nor tried to go in deeper.
I was playing at the 1900+ level at 15/16 years old. So very long ago.
My favorite chess players were Tal, Fischer, Akiba Rubenstien, Paul Morphy, Charoseuk, Bronstein, Fine, Alekhine, Pillsbury,
Kasparov, Anand , Kramnik, Spielman, Marshall, ZUKERTORT, Capablanca , Korchnoi, Kamsky and Paul Keres!

I WAS NEVER A FAN OF KARPOV , SMYLOV , PETROSIAN OR BOTVINNIK !

David Bronstein, Paul Keres, Akiba Rubenstien, Victor Korchnoi , Harry Nelson Pillsbury and Paul Morphy were in my chess hero group only eclipsed by the greatest chess genius that ever lived Robert James Fischer! ---- -Tyr

Gunny

07-23-2015, 09:40 PM

All good points, so far as I can see.

Still, it begs the question: if their revenue-base (acquisition of) is such a weak one, then why would anyone think it worthwhile to chuck massive funds at them at all ? Why, in fact, were they ever permitted to join the Euro in the first place ?

The reports we had all said that by far the biggest sticking-point to getting any new deal thrashed out was whether Greece could be trusted not to renege on it (again). Ability to pay was certainly a factor, but that was as a result of so much backsliding (corruption, etc) over so many years as anything else.

Now, they've got a bunch of Lefties in charge (nominally, given the new, even stricter austerity criteria) who, so far, have shown that they'll renege on anything in sight, including their own peoples' trust. Latest reports now indicate that the Greek people are furious with the EU, but maybe even more with Cipras and his gang.

But it testifies to the sickness of their delusionary state that what they really hate is Cipras's reneging on his promise to defy austerity ... as if Greece is in such a GOOD position, that it has no need of such measures !! You'd have thought that Greek banks nearly running out of cash might've taught them SOMETHING ... !!!

I'm sorry, but I really think there's something fundamentally wrong with the Greek people as a whole. Why is it so very difficult to get them to understand the precariousness of their position ?? Will it take the total collapse of their banking system, people starving because they've no means of buying food, hospitals unable to purchase drugs to help heal the sick, events such as these, before they'll finally REALISE where they really stand ???

That's a simple answer. We had bases there, right agiainst the communist bloc during the cold war. My dad was a linguist (EW). What do you think he used to sit there listening to on the radio? I guarantee you it wasn't Roger Miller nor Glen Miller. :)

Greece was front line shit. They could have more planes in the air from Ramstein in 3 minutes than you can count. But you can tell your theory to anyone in the 6931 Security Group, Iraklion AFB, Crete.

And come on ... you ain't that young. We were in a stalemate war. With Americans comes American dollars. We propped the Greek government up. End of the Cold War, close the bases, no American dollars.

Intriguing to me is I also lived in Karamursel Turkey. Another of my dad's "listening to Glen Miller" jobs. Turks hate Greeks and vice versa. I'd say the common enemy thing, but I was so young then, I couldn't say how we kept them from killing each other.

Drummond

07-23-2015, 09:52 PM

That's a simple answer. We had bases there, right agiainst the communist bloc during the cold war. My dad was a linguist (EW). What do you think he used to sit there listening to on the radio? I guarantee you it wasn't Roger Miller nor Glen Miller. :)

With the greatest of respect to your reminiscing, Gunny, I get the idea from your post that what you're describing goes back at least a generation, possibly longer. The Greece of those days no doubt had different priorities and a wholly different situation to deal with. Would the Greece of then, have related to the stresses and strains of Greek society, as it must be today ?

Balu

07-24-2015, 01:56 AM

Balu - yes, I love chess. Tyr-Ziu - one of the players usually likes the zugzwang. You've got a 50% chance.
:cheers2:
This is Great!
Chess is the unique instrument for brains training and developing logical abilities.
Should all the politicians were chess players, the World must have been much more perfect, in my POV. http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/standart/smile3.gif

Tyr-Ziu Saxnot

07-24-2015, 07:53 AM

This is Great!
Chess is the unique instrument for brains training and developing logical abilities.
Should all the politicians were chess players, the World must have been much more perfect, in my POV. http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/standart/smile3.gif

My view exactly. Has long been my view , so you have just matched the view of a redneck Southern man my friend. Would would have ever thought a Russian could match that view? :beer: :beer:

Chess is the most demanding mental game on earth and has the power to make people happy.
Ok, sorry forgot for a mere moment--trying to figure women out is the most demanding mental game
on earth!- :laugh:
Chess comes in second behind that biggie! ;)-Tyr

Balu

07-24-2015, 08:06 AM

... Would would have ever thought a Russian could match that view? :beer: :beer: ...

It seems that the chess players, especially those, who love poetry, sometimes happen to think the same way. :beer:

fj1200

07-24-2015, 08:54 AM

I'll make this as short as I can, FJ, because I'm well aware that you'll never, ever, concede when you're wrong.

Nobody does. They only think they do.

Conservatives are plugged into reality. We deal with it as best we can. You, however, are advancing monetary theorising which, regardless of reality, you won't budge from.

You can't make any argument short so why start now? I've promoted conservative "theorizing" which you can't dispute? Why is that? Because you can never admit you're wrong?

I've given an answer you've already ignored.

If a country adopts a currency that is NOT its own, then they're subject to its strengths, or weaknesses, as these apply at any one time. A country using a currency not its own loses autonomy, loses the range of freedom it may badly need to plan its own future.

In the case of Greece, isn't a part of what they're now complaining about down to a lack of fiscal autonomy ?

Here's the real point. For all of your 'anti austerity' theorising, Greece had a hard-Left Party elected which believed, just as you do, that austerity was not the way to proceed. But UNLIKE you, Greece was forced to face realities. The reality of its position requires that a degree of cash-flow continues, that their banks have funds they need to operate. Such was, and is, the fragility of the Greek economy that they were just a couple of days from complete meltdown. They needed a cash injection, and only the EU offered one.

And of course, it came as part of a package, one designed to serve the EU, just as it also serves Greece.

Greece's Hard Left got precisely nowhere with any programme of anti-austerity. It was dead in the water, literally days after their Referendum supplied a mandate for it. Why ? Because such ideas cannot possibly be grafted on to Greece's fiscal reality, and the Left were conning their people into believing otherwise .. until reality forced them to stop.

Your anti-austerity ideas are rooted in fantasy, certainly where Greece is concerned. What you've been advocating would need years for its effects to be felt. But Greece's economy cannot suspend itself from its own reality for the length of time any of that would require !

Greece doesn't need Left wing fantasising, grandiose theorising belonging to another world entirely. It needs practical approaches, applied to the practical need of the moment. You're anti high taxation ? FINE, if it CAN BE AFFORDED. BUT LOSS OF TAXATION REVENUE MEANS LESS MONEY AVAILABLE FOR ESSENTIAL SERVICES. AND WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THAT THIS WOULD BE GOOD FOR GREECE, A COUNTRY TOTALLY DESPERATE FOR MONEY EVERYWHERE IN ITS ECONOMY, ENOUGH EVEN TO WORRY ABOUT A SECURE, CONTINUED CASH FLOW, RIGHT THIS MINUTE ??

I'm not sure what answer you think I've ignored but you've been ignoring every conservative solution that I've posted. You've also been ignoring every instance where you should have proven that five years of austerity has worked; where are those proofs? Let's run down your post and reasoning.

I've already addressed currency adoption; Greece is already tied to the fortunes of Europe and they are incapable of running their own currency. Do you need a listing of countries that do not utilize their own currency? That's been posted previously too.
Fiscal autonomy? Or do you mean monetary? As far as I know the Greeks want to remain in the Euro.
Anti-austerity theorizing? I've posted anti-austerity fact. This would be where you prove that austerity has put Greece in a better position than before.
Despite your bluster this round of austerity isn't going to be any better than the 7? other rounds of austerity. This could also be where you prove that austerity has worked.
Greece needs some Reaganomics. It's worked where ever it's tried.

When do you respond to all the other posts I've made? Are you ignoring what proves you wrong or you don't understand? Merely whining about lefties doesn't help the Greeks.

fj1200

07-24-2015, 09:26 AM

A conservative solution (See Reagan and Thatcher for specific examples):

The Greek Government's Revenue Would Rise -- Immediately -- After Tax Reform (http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2015/04/03/the-greek-governments-revenue-would-rise-immediately-after-tax-reform/)

I’ve asserted that Greece really isn’t going to solve its problems until the government creates a healthy environment for private business. This mostly means tax reform, with much lower rates (http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2015/03/03/greece-can-teach-the-world-a-needed-lesson/). Yes, you could name a dozen other factors that help, but what we find in practice is that, if taxes are low (http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2013/02/14/how-do-countries-grow-rich-its-much-easier-than-you-think/), then things tend to work out well no matter what the situation is regarding these other factors. We also find that these other factors also tend to improve along the way, because any government that is serious enough to engage in major tax reform is also serious enough to address other issues that arise.If taxes are high, not only does this depress private enterprise in the first instance, no matter what the other factors may be, but it also sets in motion a trend toward corruption that makes all other effective reform impossible (http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2015/03/19/greece-could-rise-to-greatness-or-become-the-next-venezuela/).
That’s why the Magic Formula is only four words: Low Taxes, Stable Money. If you have the Magic Formula, the other stuff tends to get solved over time. If you don’t have the Magic Formula, you can try to fix everything else on your hundred-item wish list of reforms, and you will probably fail – or, even if you didn’t fail, it still wouldn’t matter.
Nevertheless, governments are afraid. Mostly, they are afraid of a major decline in tax revenue. Oddly, this often follows a long period in which taxes are continually raised (“austerity”), and continually produce a decline in tax revenue. The Greek government’s tax revenue was 67.5 billion euros in 2013 (http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/submitViewTableAction.do), down from 81.4 billion in 2008. It looks like it fell another 3% or so in 2014. You would think that someone worried about a decline in tax revenue would not keep doing that, over and over.
...
But, we find that is not the case at all. Tax revenue tends to rise immediately. This was the case after the Kennedy tax cut of 1964 and Coolidge tax cut of 1925; it was the case in Japan and Germany during the 1960s; it was the case after the Reagan and Thatcher tax reforms in the 1980s; and it has been the case among the European flat-taxers in more recent years (http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2011/09/29/the-rise-of-the-flat-tax-gives-us-morning-in-albania/). (I document all these examples in my book Gold: the Once and Future Money (http://www.amazon.com/Gold-Future-Money-Nathan-Lewis/dp/0470047666/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1427982982&sr=8-2&keywords=gold+nathan+lewis).)
...
When governments begin to see that major tax reform is actually a means to create much more tax revenue, in the “long run” but even immediately, while also resolving the major problems of society (notably the 26% unemployment), then their prior fears dissipate like so much delusion. They begin to grasp the alchemical laws of economic creation and destruction. There is actually nothing to lose, and everything to gain. It is all just as Confucius said 2500 years ago (http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2015/03/19/greece-could-rise-to-greatness-or-become-the-next-venezuela/): a healthy economy produces healthy government finances, so if you concentrate on the healthy economy, everything else just works out.
...

Let's see if the specifics offered in all the "monetary theorising" of the link will be ignored?

Drummond

07-25-2015, 08:47 PM

Drummond

07-25-2015, 09:16 PM

You can't make any argument short so why start now? I've promoted conservative "theorizing" which you can't dispute? Why is that? Because you can never admit you're wrong?

I'm not sure what answer you think I've ignored but you've been ignoring every conservative solution that I've posted. You've also been ignoring every instance where you should have proven that five years of austerity has worked; where are those proofs? Let's run down your post and reasoning.

I've already addressed currency adoption; Greece is already tied to the fortunes of Europe and they are incapable of running their own currency. Do you need a listing of countries that do not utilize their own currency? That's been posted previously too.
Fiscal autonomy? Or do you mean monetary? As far as I know the Greeks want to remain in the Euro.
Anti-austerity theorizing? I've posted anti-austerity fact. This would be where you prove that austerity has put Greece in a better position than before.
Despite your bluster this round of austerity isn't going to be any better than the 7? other rounds of austerity. This could also be where you prove that austerity has worked.
Greece needs some Reaganomics. It's worked where ever it's tried.

When do you respond to all the other posts I've made? Are you ignoring what proves you wrong or you don't understand? Merely whining about lefties doesn't help the Greeks.

You got there, I see. Finally, a realisation that there are instances where ONLY austerity measures can keep a country's finances 'viable'.

And you have got there .. because currency ADOPTION has the inbuilt problem I said it has ... that of a country relying on a currency it doesn't really control. Long-term fiscal planning is rendered a nonsense under such circumstances. As you now ADMIT that 'they (Greece) are incapable of running their own currency' ... austerity measures are ALL THAT'S LEFT. Certainly, in an economy a country cannot run (!!), no latitude exists for your form of approach.

According to you, anti-austerity 'fact' would involve a Britain where, in being tied to austerity, it was going to go in the direction of Greece !! Nothing of the kind has happened .. our economy is now stronger than those of most of the rest of Europe.

Only a Leftie would advocate running an economy where expenditure controls were RELAXED, at a time when finances were in a dire condition. Labour, Britain's LEFT, were all about that ... and another year or 2 of that behaviour would've bankrupted us. As it is, our CONSERVATIVES adopted austerity as the cure for Leftie recklessness. AND IT WORKS.

For all of your own blather and protracted diversionary squirming, FJ, you cannot escape these two basic facts:

1. Austerity measures are the successful flagship policy of our CONSERVATIVES, which YOU HAVE OPPOSED.

2. Anti-austerity measures were advocated by the GREEK HARD LEFT ... and YOU HAVE ARGUED A POSITION ALIGNED TO THEIR OWN. And, guess what ? Even Greek Lefties had to face reality and do an about-turn. An about-turn which, since you aren't constrained by real solutions to real problems, YOU won't consider.

And that, as Conservatives well know, is characteristic of Lefties. To them, the world must be as THEY decree it .. not as it IS.

Fact is, FJ, that you're a prisoner of your Left-wing thinking, as I said some time ago was the case. You'll never freely admit you're one, I understand that .. but you've betrayed the truth of yourself, you hate the fact that you have, and you're trying to squirm out of it.

In the future, there will be more such instances of your 'outing' yourself, because you can't avoid them. The truth WILL 'out'. Except that you'll deny the obvious then, as well.

Too bad. The truth is clear, and will be proved so again in the future. Not 'if' -- but 'when'. I guarantee it.

Now ... start to 'censor' that which you'd rather not acknowledge ... .

DragonStryk72

07-25-2015, 09:43 PM

You got there, I see. Finally, a realisation that there are instances where ONLY austerity measures can keep a country's finances 'viable'.

And you have got there .. because currency ADOPTION has the inbuilt problem I said it has ... that of a country relying on a currency it doesn't really control. Long-term fiscal planning is rendered a nonsense under such circumstances. As you now ADMIT that 'they (Greece) are incapable of running their own currency' ... austerity measures are ALL THAT'S LEFT. Certainly, in an economy a country cannot run (!!), no latitude exists for your form of approach.

According to you, anti-austerity 'fact' would involve a Britain where, in being tied to austerity, it was going to go in the direction of Greece !! Nothing of the kind has happened .. our economy is now stronger than those of most of the rest of Europe.

Only a Leftie would advocate running an economy where expenditure controls were RELAXED, at a time when finances were in a dire condition. Labour, Britain's LEFT, were all about that ... and another year or 2 of that behaviour would've bankrupted us. As it is, our CONSERVATIVES adopted austerity as the cure for Leftie recklessness. AND IT WORKS.

For all of your own blather and protracted diversionary squirming, FJ, you cannot escape these two basic facts:

1. Austerity measures are the successful flagship policy of our CONSERVATIVES, which YOU HAVE OPPOSED.

2. Anti-austerity measures were advocated by the GREEK HARD LEFT ... and YOU HAVE ARGUED A POSITION ALIGNED TO THEIR OWN. And, guess what ? Even Greek Lefties had to face reality and do an about-turn. An about-turn which, since you aren't constrained by real solutions to real problems, YOU won't consider.

And that, as Conservatives well know, is characteristic of Lefties. To them, the world must be as THEY decree it .. not as it IS.

Fact is, FJ, that you're a prisoner of your Left-wing thinking, as I said some time ago was the case. You'll never freely admit you're one, I understand that .. but you've betrayed the truth of yourself, you hate the fact that you have, and you're trying to squirm out of it.

In the future, there will be more such instances of your 'outing' yourself, because you can't avoid them. The truth WILL 'out'. Except that you'll deny the obvious then, as well.

Too bad. The truth is clear, and will be proved so again in the future. Not 'if' -- but 'when'. I guarantee it.

Now ... start to 'censor' that which you'd rather not acknowledge ... .

Okay, Drummond, we're having that "Your brand of conservatism vs. American convservatism". Here, conservatives, by and large, are against austerity, not for it, because again, over here, conservatives are small government, while liberals are large government.

The section I've highlighted is exactly how conservatives do pitch over here on fiscal matters, that deregulation (Also referred to as laissez-faire, or free market solution) based solutions are the order of the day. No, no, really, go watch some Fox news reporting on anything as far as promoting anything deregulation. FJ's giving you the conservative arguments for helping Greece per US Conservatism.

Drummond

07-25-2015, 10:17 PM

Okay, Drummond, we're having that "Your brand of conservatism vs. American convservatism". Here, conservatives, by and large, are against austerity, not for it, because again, over here, conservatives are small government, while liberals are large government.

The section I've highlighted is exactly how conservatives do pitch over here on fiscal matters, that deregulation (Also referred to as laissez-faire, or free market solution) based solutions are the order of the day. No, no, really, go watch some Fox news reporting on anything as far as promoting anything deregulation. FJ's giving you the conservative arguments for helping Greece per US Conservatism.

Let me requote that text you highlighted ...

Only a Leftie would advocate running an economy where expenditure controls were RELAXED, at a time when finances were in a dire condition

Note that part I've emphasised.

Americans may indeed argue as you suggest ... and this is because you can afford to. Are you another Greece-in-waiting ? I really don't think so !! OK, so Obama's mob have been reckless .. but that's within a context of an economy that's so big, so robust, so plugged into everything, that it can take knocks which smaller economies cannot.

By complete contrast, FJ tries to apply standards to foreign countries which FOREIGN Lefties happily apply, in conditions and within contexts where the same latitudes and liberties just can't be taken as you can comfortably take. In this, he fully identifies with what THEY advocate and THEY try to get away with.

Remember Fannie and Freddie ? Well .. the fallout from that, with its global consequences, some countries weathered better than others. Our own fared especially badly, partly because of reckless spending undertaken by Labour previously - which left us in a weak state to begin with - and once it did hit, their solution was to part-nationalise banks. This involved buying up share-control of them, keeping them afloat, but also within effective State ownership .. 'for their own good, and continued liquidity'.

On top of previous recklessness, they piled on more of the same, spending money it wasn't theirs to spend (it was borrowed) just to keep us afloat.

I know that America did have its own bailouts .. but YOU could afford them. Besides, yours were voted on, whereas ours were not. Ours were just ordered.

In FJ, we have someone whose recommendations are to behave as our own Left wing in the UK had done (until stopped by their ousting from power, our Conservative Coalition Government taking over, and instituting emergency austerity measures, to gain some control over spending once more !). Also - we have FJ siding completely with the direction the Greek LEFTIES wanted to take, until, that is, REALITY stopped them in their tracks.

Reality doesn't hinder FJ's pontificating, however. Heaven forbid !! No, he'll continue to advocate financial solutions for countries THAT JUST CANNOT TAKE IT.

It's a combination of FJ's siding with an approach favoured by LEFT WINGERS in foreign countries, which he'd like them to succeed with, combined with a rejection of what more CONSERVATIVE powers favour instead, which tells its story.

Remember. America's standards and thinking isn't the issue. The issue is that FJ sides with LEFT WING thinking, ABROAD, and advocates that THEIR APPROACH SUCCEEDS. And that, in defiance of the fiscal realities applicable to those foreign countries, realities which true Conservatives address as they MUST be addressed. These are realities you have no need to directly face in America today.

Kathianne

08-04-2015, 10:30 AM

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/03/investing/puerto-rico-crisis-in-2-minutes/

Puerto Rico has been dubbed "America's Greece." The islanddefaulted on its debt (http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/03/investing/puerto-rico-default/index.html?iid=TL_Popular) for the first time ever on Monday. If you're just catching up, here's the latest on the crisis -- and what you need to know. Last updated August 3 at 3:50pm ET.1. Puerto Rico is now in default. It paid only $628,000 of a $58 million debt payment that was due by Monday. This marks the first default (http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/03/investing/puerto-rico-default/index.html?iid=EL)in the island's history.

...

Drummond

08-04-2015, 10:55 AM

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/03/investing/puerto-rico-crisis-in-2-minutes/

Nothing at all in BBC broadcasts about this, though I see it's covered on their Webpage ... not in very great detail, though, from what I've seen. This is one where I'll be more reliant on your input, Kathianne.

I gather that part of their problem is that the would-be workforce is emigrating ?

Never mind. I'm sure some bright spark will nonetheless come along to tell us that low taxation entrepreneurialism is the entire answer, and a responsible reining-in of spending needs to be resisted at all costs ...:rolleyes:

Kathianne

08-04-2015, 11:00 AM

Nothing at all in BBC broadcasts about this, though I see it's covered on their Webpage ... not in very great detail, though, from what I've seen. This is one where I'll be more reliant on your input, Kathianne.
Well it seems that the burden will fall on the Puerto Ricans that can't escape to US. It's not going to have the impact that Greece did on the EU.

Drummond

08-04-2015, 11:03 AM

It's not going to have the impact that Greece did on the EU.

This is something to be thankful for.

Well it seems that the burden will fall on the Puerto Ricans that can't escape to US.

Indeed, they'll know quite a burden. Those remaining will have to accept responsible countermeasures.

Kathianne

08-04-2015, 11:20 AM

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150803/cb--puerto_rico-tough_times-9823c00398.html

Misery deepens for those in Puerto Rico who can't leave

<tbody>

<tbody>

</tbody>

</tbody>

Aug 3, 12:53 AM (ET)

By DANICA COTO

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — Most tables are empty at Walter Martin's coffee shop in San Juan's colonial district. His brow is furrowed with concern and glistens with sweat in the sweltering Caribbean morning.

He's turned off the air conditioning to lower his power bill. With fewer customers, he's cut staff hours and tried to make up the lost income by raising some prices. But Puerto Rico's entrenched economic crisis is leading people to either cut their personal spending to the basics or flee to the mainland to search for jobs, contributing to the struggles of those left on the island.

"We're making every single adjustment needed," Martin said. "We have to make these decisions because if not..."

He trailed off, hesitant to complete the sentence.

Nearly 10 years into a deep economic slump, Puerto Rico is no closer to pulling out, and, in fact, is poised to plummet further. The unemployment rate is above 12 percent. Some 144,000 people left the U.S. territory between 2010 and 2013, and about a third of all people born in Puerto Rico now live in the U.S. mainland. Schools and businesses have closed amid the exodus. The population of 3.5 million is expected to drop to 3 million by 2050.

The government has tried to boost revenue by hiking the sales tax to 11.5 percent, higher than any U.S. state, and closing government offices. Its debt-burdened power utility already charges rates that on average are twice those of the mainland, and is under pressure from bondholders to raise them higher.

A $58 million bond payment due Saturday went unpaid. If defaults continue, analysts say Puerto Rico will face numerous lawsuits and increasingly limited access to markets, putting a recovery even more out of reach.

Carmen Davila, a 65-year-old retired truck driver and window dresser, recently withdrew her money from the bank amid fears the government would shut down and seize it.

"Things are happening in Puerto Rico that we've never seen before," Davila said. "Puerto Rico has always had its ups and downs, but you could handle it. This now is serious."

The exodus of people from the island, mainly to central Florida and New York, is palpable. Nearly everyone knows someone who has left, or plans to do so soon. The impact of the departures, and the decline in spending of those remaining, is obvious.

Crowds have thinned at restaurants and movie theaters; families like Davila's have cut back on summer excursions to beaches and mountains; and even San Juan's notorious traffic jams have dwindled somewhat.
Jose Hernandez said his commute into San Juan's colonial district, once about two hours, now takes roughly 20 minutes.

...

Max R.

08-04-2015, 04:20 PM

Puerto Rico is an odd situation. As an island, it should be a paradise, an easy trip to a US tropical isle like the Virgin Islands.

http://kcm.kr/iconimg/005817.gif

fj1200

08-07-2015, 03:22 PM

Puerto Rico is an odd situation. As an island, it should be a paradise, an easy trip to a US tropical isle like the Virgin Islands.

Not really so odd when you consider that there are few bright spots in the whole of the Caribbean. But a little of the why about PR:

How did Puerto Rico get here?

Persistently weak economic performance has eroded the tax base and the government and other agencies piled on debt from eager lenders to maintain public spending.
Puerto Rico has more than three times the debt per resident as the most heavily indebted U.S. states.
The territory suffers under certain structural disadvantages. The federal minimum wage applies there, and is probably too high for local productivity rates and prevailing wages. Able-bodied residents leave for the Mainland in large numbers. Certain trade laws make it harder to compete in manufacturing without U.S. subsidies that were lifted several years ago. And it has lost market share in tourism to nearby islands such as the Dominican Republic.

Well it seems that the burden will fall on the Puerto Ricans that can't escape to US. It's not going to have the impact that Greece did on the EU.

Certainly not:

How is Puerto Rico like, or unlike, Greece or Detroit? Similar to Greece, Puerto Rico is linked to a larger economy with which it shares a currency and must accept fiscal direction. It therefore can’t ease debt burdens through a devalued currency, as independent nations can.
Yet there is a difference, in that Puerto Rican residents, as U.S. citizens, receive automatic help from federal income-support programs and need not accept specific fiscal direction from another government.
Like Detroit, Puerto Rico suffers from too much debt, a weak economy and steady loss of working-age population. But Detroit was able to seek protection under municipal-bankruptcy statutes. As of now, Puerto Rico does not enjoy that option.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/puerto-rico-defaults--five-things-you-should-know-133724287.html#

fj1200

08-07-2015, 03:24 PM

Never mind. I'm sure some bright spark will nonetheless come along to tell us that low taxation entrepreneurialism is the entire answer...

The entire answer is conservatism. Not what you peddle.

fj1200

08-07-2015, 03:40 PM

I wonder how many more times it needs to be said ? Or will you just ignore this ... yet again ?

For such an approach as 'yours' to work, A VIABLE, BASIC FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE MUST BE IN PLACE TO BEGIN WITH. Greece is too far gone for that. Greece was within days of its banking system collapsing, before bailout money became available at the last moment.

It's the financial equivalent of a comatose patient, unable to breathe on his own, being put on a life support machine at the last moment.

By the way .. the author of your link, Nathan Lewis, has, I see, written for the Huffington Post, and Pravda !! Tell me, which of these did you pick up his material from, FJ ?

I picked it up from Forbes. All you had to do was follow the link. But he also has posted in:

My opinion pieces have appeared in the Financial Times, Asian Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones Newswires, Worth, Daily Yomiuri, Asia Times, Pravda, Huffington Post, and numerous other print and online publications.

How intellectually dishonest are you that you ignored all the other ones and only mentioned those two? Question withdrawn; you are highly intellectually dishonest. But leave it to you to argue like a leftie and attack the individual and ignore the arguments. Because you did an excellent job of completely ignoring the information that I provided, just like someone who has no clue what they're posting about.

But back to your original point; I've linked repeatedly to new information and you repeatedly ignore it and repeat your same tired line. This would be the time where you link to information that backs up your premise (and not just whining about lefties) and tell us all how the five years of austerity and seven different austerity measures that have undeniably left the country in a worse place are going to work this time.

Also, let us know exactly when conservative ideas are best and when your big government solutions are best. We're all dying to know. :)

fj1200

08-07-2015, 03:58 PM

You got there, I see. Finally, a realisation that there are instances where ONLY austerity measures can keep a country's finances 'viable'.

And you have got there .. because currency ADOPTION has the inbuilt problem I said it has ... that of a country relying on a currency it doesn't really control. Long-term fiscal planning is rendered a nonsense under such circumstances. As you now ADMIT that 'they (Greece) are incapable of running their own currency' ... austerity measures are ALL THAT'S LEFT. Certainly, in an economy a country cannot run (!!), no latitude exists for your form of approach.

According to you, anti-austerity 'fact' would involve a Britain where, in being tied to austerity, it was going to go in the direction of Greece !! Nothing of the kind has happened .. our economy is now stronger than those of most of the rest of Europe.

Only a Leftie would advocate running an economy where expenditure controls were RELAXED, at a time when finances were in a dire condition. Labour, Britain's LEFT, were all about that ... and another year or 2 of that behaviour would've bankrupted us. As it is, our CONSERVATIVES adopted austerity as the cure for Leftie recklessness. AND IT WORKS.

For all of your own blather and protracted diversionary squirming, FJ, you cannot escape these two basic facts:

1. Austerity measures are the successful flagship policy of our CONSERVATIVES, which YOU HAVE OPPOSED.

2. Anti-austerity measures were advocated by the GREEK HARD LEFT ... and YOU HAVE ARGUED A POSITION ALIGNED TO THEIR OWN. And, guess what ? Even Greek Lefties had to face reality and do an about-turn. An about-turn which, since you aren't constrained by real solutions to real problems, YOU won't consider.

And that, as Conservatives well know, is characteristic of Lefties. To them, the world must be as THEY decree it .. not as it IS.

Fact is, FJ, that you're a prisoner of your Left-wing thinking, as I said some time ago was the case. You'll never freely admit you're one, I understand that .. but you've betrayed the truth of yourself, you hate the fact that you have, and you're trying to squirm out of it.

In the future, there will be more such instances of your 'outing' yourself, because you can't avoid them. The truth WILL 'out'. Except that you'll deny the obvious then, as well.

Too bad. The truth is clear, and will be proved so again in the future. Not 'if' -- but 'when'. I guarantee it.

Now ... start to 'censor' that which you'd rather not acknowledge ... .

I've already exposed your ignorance about the recent economic history of your own country. If you weren't such a coward you would open up one of those threads. But please show everyone where the Greek "HARD LEFT" advocated for tax cuts, restrained spending, monetary stability, and a more relaxed regulatory environment that I have been advocating? You should do it or finally admit that you can't.

"Only austerity"? Please provide a track record of success that Greece has had in the last five years. But I can agree that Greece is incapable of running their own currency but that is a completely different issue than the failure that austerity has been. At the very least you need to acknowledge that Greek austerity is NOTHING like British "austerity." I wholeheartedly agreed with Osborne's "austerity" that embraced tax cuts as the necessary ingredient of supply side economics. Would you like to now argue that Supply-Side is NOT conservative?

Now lastly, you can finally provide proof of my betrayal of small government conservatism or you can finally drop this leftie business you infect the board with. I'm kind of done with it.

fj1200

08-07-2015, 04:03 PM

Also - we have FJ siding completely with the direction the Greek LEFTIES wanted to take...

Do you choose being a lying sack or willfully ignorant?

... please show everyone where the Greek "HARD LEFT" advocated for tax cuts, restrained spending, monetary stability, and a more relaxed regulatory environment that I have been advocating? You should do it or finally admit that you can't.

Max R.

08-07-2015, 06:21 PM

Not really so odd when you consider that there are few bright spots in the whole of the Caribbean. But a little of the why about PR:

....Persistently weak economic performance has eroded the tax base and the government and other agencies piled on debt from eager lenders to maintain public spending.
Puerto Rico has more than three times the debt per resident as the most heavily indebted U.S. states......

That public spending will getcha every time!

Drummond

08-07-2015, 06:43 PM

I've already exposed your ignorance about the recent economic history of your own country. If you weren't such a coward you would open up one of those threads. But please show everyone where the Greek "HARD LEFT" advocated for tax cuts, restrained spending, monetary stability, and a more relaxed regulatory environment that I have been advocating? You should do it or finally admit that you can't.

"Only austerity"? Please provide a track record of success that Greece has had in the last five years. But I can agree that Greece is incapable of running their own currency but that is a completely different issue than the failure that austerity has been. At the very least you need to acknowledge that Greek austerity is NOTHING like British "austerity." I wholeheartedly agreed with Osborne's "austerity" that embraced tax cuts as the necessary ingredient of supply side economics. Would you like to now argue that Supply-Side is NOT conservative?

Now lastly, you can finally provide proof of my betrayal of small government conservatism or you can finally drop this leftie business you infect the board with. I'm kind of done with it.

I missed this until just now. So, the post edits are back with a vengeance, eh ?

Are you finding it difficult to cope without your pathetic censoring-attempts ?

No, let's stick with your willingness to indulge in misrepresentation, shall we ?

What the Greek Hard Left Party did was to fight for power on an ANTI-Austerity platform. This ringing any bells for you, FJ ?

Anti-austerity, FJ, in case I need to remind you ahead of an imminent history rewrite of yours, is something you've been championing. True to your political leanings, you launched a sustained attack on the British Conservatives because of their own austerity package. In the process, you treated me to repeats of your much-preferred Obama-esque mantra invention of the moment: your version of one was ... 'Austerity Sucks'.

The austerity package that the UK Conservatives, along with the LibDems in Coalition, was, is, and has remained, the Conservative Party's cornerstone manifesto pledge for both the 2010 and 2015 elections, and they've stuck to it. Result ... sustained improvement in our economy, from RESPONSIBLE fiscal management.

... Now. You represent yourself as a so-called version of a Conservative ... but you do so on the back of a history of ATTACKING Conservatives, on a VERY regular basis. The British Conservative Party (without knowing or caring, of course .. so 'sorry' about that ..) has, ahem, 'taken' attack after attack from you, for failing to ditch their austerity package, THIS IN FULL ACCORD WITH WHAT OUR UK LEFTIES HAVE ADVOCATED.

But not even content with that ... you've taken a position that mirrored the one that the hardline Greek LEFT said they were championing. They wanted to ditch austerity. They even asked for a Referendum vote mandating them to continue with that policy. Except that ... so wedded have you been to following this LEFTIE fiscal strategy, that, even when the Greek Lefties were forced to abandon it (that little pesky thing called REALITY got in the way .. how very Naughty of it, eh ??) .. YOU remained LOYAL to it.

But, of course you did.

How could you do otherwise .. unlike the Greek Lefties, you weren't forced out of it by a dose of the real world. You, instead, could do what Lefties love doing, and divorce reality from dogmatic preference. So, you Leftily stuck with dogmatism.

And you're still doing it, but, ludicrously, you're claiming to be CONSERVATIVE, when wearing your LEFTIE hat !!!!!

You know, it may be that I've never known anyone more dedicated to self-misrepresentation than you are, FJ.

You betray small Government Conservatism by missing one of the points of it .. namely, that you apply it when you CAN, and when practicalities allow for it. Your big - actually, enormous - problem is that, being a Leftie at heart, you cannot think in terms of escaping blind adherence to dogmatism. So, you represent very basic CONSERVATIVE thinking, BUT in a classically limited and typically LEFTIE, way. That's to say, by being purposely unhinged from reality.

Margaret Thatcher never, ever, made that mistake.

It's truly sad, because I know that, not only can you not escape from this fundamental error, you even convince yourself that it isn't one.

But then, this itself is typically Leftie.

IDIOT.

fj1200

08-14-2015, 12:43 PM

... you've taken a position ...

I asked you to prove it.

But please show everyone where the Greek "HARD LEFT" advocated for tax cuts, restrained spending, monetary stability, and a more relaxed regulatory environment that I have been advocating? You should do it or finally admit that you can't.

"Only austerity"? Please provide a track record of success that Greece has had in the last five years. ... Would you like to now argue that Supply-Side is NOT conservative?

Here's another valid point you're running away from.

Also, let us know exactly when conservative ideas are best and when your big government solutions are best. We're all dying to know. :)

Drummond

08-14-2015, 02:12 PM

I've already exposed your ignorance about the recent economic history of your own country.

The recent economic history of my country shows that austerity measures are helping us, that our economy is growing stronger. Inflation is at record lows, and has been for a long time.

Compare that with the prediction you once made, that we were doomed to suffer the same fate that Greece is now experiencing !

But please show everyone where the Greek "HARD LEFT" advocated for tax cuts, restrained spending, monetary stability, and a more relaxed regulatory environment that I have been advocating?

Disingenuous. Lefties prefer tax RISES. By comparison, Conservatives will only apply them if they must. Not by choice, but if they MUST.

Lefties also love to go in for massive spending. That's partly why they want tax hikes ! Our British Conservatives see it as necessary to do the opposite. Such forms a vital part of - get this - AUSTERITY MEASURES.

But you are firmly against such measures. As, indeed, were the Greek hard Left.

You say that you are for low taxation. So, traditionally - note that word ! - are the Right. But, the Right will adapt to realities, so if need be, they'll raise taxes. What they won't do is spend recklessly.

The Left, however, will. And in doing so, they defy an important cornerstone of austerity packages.

You should be delighted, as after all, you say 'austerity sucks'.

"Only austerity"? Please provide a track record of success that Greece has had in the last five years.

Before the Greek Lefties came along, they were already tied into an austerity programme. The Greek Hard Left, LIKE YOU, wanted the ABANDONMENT of them, and this in the face of their absolute necessity ! So you, in typical Leftie fashion, clung on to a preference far removed from Greece's reality.

But I can agree that Greece is incapable of running their own currency but that is a completely different issue than the failure that austerity has been.

The two are linked. If, as you say, Greece cannot run its own currency, they're reliant on another one. In this case, the Euro, and they're tied into it. This means being subject to rules and conditions which best serve that. And, yes, these concern AUSTERITY measures, as Europe itself agrees is true. And required.

At the very least you need to acknowledge that Greek austerity is NOTHING like British "austerity."

Yes. That's because WE ACTED IN TIME, and from a lesser history of mismanagement.

If you'd had your way, we'd not have acted at all. Which is what our own LEFT wanted.

I wholeheartedly agreed with Osborne's "austerity" that embraced tax cuts as the necessary ingredient of supply side economics. Would you like to now argue that Supply-Side is NOT conservative?

I'd like to argue what I have been arguing, thanks. If an economy is weak beyond a certain point, it needs to be on 'life-support', rather than being reliant on its own, more normal, operations. Austerity packages do that. They cut back on expenditures. Cuts are made where they can be. If revenue is lacking .. and in a weak economy, it WILL be .. then you inject what revenue you can AFFORD into it to keep it going. Tax rises are a relatively short-term (as short term as is reasonable), but necessary, answer.

What you're 'agreeing' with is the tax cuts only introduced once they could be AFFORDED. Until they could be, they DID NOT EXIST.

Now lastly, you can finally provide proof of my betrayal of small government conservatism or you can finally drop this leftie business you infect the board with. I'm kind of done with it.

You inject 'leftie business' into this board by BEING one. If you want to stop being one, and start showing some loyalty towards commonsense politics, I for one would be delighted. By all means, start !!

Fact is, you're a fraud.

You're 'The One True Thatcherite'. So you SAY (denigrating all other Thatcherites out there, something no loyal Thatcherite would do !). Yet, Margaret Thatcher was pro-BIG Government solutions when she saw a need for them. So, Mr 'Thatcherite', WHY AREN'T YOU ?

I say again, you're A FRAUD. Either by 'being' a 'Thatcherite' and betraying HER, or, by being so 'small Government' as to try and apply it in those situations where it's unworkable, presumably to discredit it ?

A Left-winger clings to principles and stances irrespective of whether or not they're workable, believing that propaganda will see them through, come-what-may. A Conservative lives in the real world, doing his or her best according to practical need. What do you do ? You cling on to a mantra when it CANNOT work, you insult Conservatives on a VERY regular basis, and yes, you couldn't put a cigarette paper between what you said you believed in, and what Greek Lefties said THEY believed in !

Between all that, and your disloyalty towards Thatcherism, why should I - or, anyone - have the smallest faith in YOUR version of your so-called 'bona fides' ?

Come on .. ANSWER THAT.

But of course, you cannot.

-- Feel some editing-for-oneupmanship coming on, FJ .. ?