Yoohoo, Drummond!

[Kathianne]

How goes the elections? Is this for real?

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/05/07/britain-goes-to-the-polls/

[Kathianne]

Looks like:

http://news.sky.com/us




ELECTION 2015
PROJECTION: CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY
RESULTS IN: 641/650TURNOUT: 66.1%


[*=center]CON (http://news.sky.com/election/results)
[*=center]324 (http://news.sky.com/election/results)
[*=center]
[*=center]LAB (http://news.sky.com/election/results)
[*=center]229 (http://news.sky.com/election/results)
[*=center]
[*=center]LIB DEM 8 (http://news.sky.com/election/results)
[*=center]
[*=center]UKIP 1 (http://news.sky.com/election/results)
[*=center]
[*=center]SNP 56 (http://news.sky.com/election/results)
[*=center]
[*=center]OTHER 23 (http://news.sky.com/election/results)

[Drummond]

Howdy yourself !

Yep, fully for real. It's a big surprise for everyone. Our 'Exit Poll' forecast a Conservative victory ... though just short of a working majority in the House of Commons .. with every poll beforehand insisting that they and their Socialist opposition were running neck and neck. The media gossip has long since been centred on who the Conservatives would have to go into coalition with, IF they won ... or, who Labour would have to ally themselves to, if they 'won'.

In the event, the Conservatives are in a strong enough position .. just about ... to govern unfettered by anyone else.

It's still not ideal. I recall that the Conservatives won in 1992 with a majority of around 30 ... which eroded to nothing within the lifetime of that Government. Cameron doesn't have that luxury ! Still, his opposition are too divided, I think, to mount an effective combined opposition in the event of a similar erosion happening in the next handful of years.

So, I'm celebrating. :dance::dance::dance::dance:

The only thing to wait for now is to see if Ed Miliband's leadership of the Labour Party will continue. Our Parties tend to be unforgiving of losing leaders.

[aboutime]

Howdy yourself !

Yep, fully for real. It's a big surprise for everyone. Our 'Exit Poll' forecast a Conservative victory ... though just short of a working majority in the House of Commons .. with every poll beforehand insisting that they and their Socialist opposition were running neck and neck. The media gossip has long since been centred on who the Conservatives would have to go into coalition with, IF they won ... or, who Labour would have to ally themselves to, if they 'won'.

In the event, the Conservatives are in a strong enough position .. just about ... to govern unfettered by anyone else.

It's still not ideal. I recall that the Conservatives won in 1992 with a majority of around 30 ... which eroded to nothing within the lifetime of that Government. Cameron doesn't have that luxury ! Still, his opposition are too divided, I think, to mount an effective combined opposition in the event of a similar erosion happening in the next handful of years.

So, I'm celebrating. :dance::dance::dance::dance:

The only thing to wait for now is to see if Ed Miliband's leadership of the Labour Party will continue. Our Parties tend to be unforgiving of losing leaders.



Congrats Sir Drummond. So, there is a possibility of LIGHT at the end of that dark Tunnel! Enjoy.

From across the pond in the colonies! Time to Toast one for MAGGIE!:laugh:

[Drummond]

Congrats Sir Drummond. So, there is a possibility of LIGHT at the end of that dark Tunnel! Enjoy.

From across the pond in the colonies! Time to Toast one for MAGGIE!:laugh:

Thanks, Aboutime !!

One obvious lesson to be drawn from the level of surprise is just how unreliable opinion polls can be, even how useless.

Results over several weeks consistently put Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck (usually only varying by 1 or 2 percentage points, then 'self correcting' over weeks of polling). Nonetheless .. one in four voters remained undecided until at least the day before the election, we're told .. and if true, that has to mean that every poll indication was useless.

- Which proved to be the way of it. Nobody thought actually getting a working majority was within the grasp of any major Party, which is why in the final days we kept getting reports of all the manifesto 'red lines' the minor Parties would insist were not breached if cooperation was to be forthcoming (in other words, they tried to indulge in a blackmail-fest ...).

One example - Labour said they'd reduce our stock of independent nuclear-deterrent submarines, so weakening our deterrent effectiveness. But the SNP (Scots Nationalist Party) wanted ALL of them scrapped. Had Labour won, had they agreed to do a cooperation deal with the SNP so they could combine enough seats to form a working voter base in Parliament, Labour might have been forced to disarm the UK in nuclear terms. Ed Miliband, Labour's leader, said he'd do no deals with the SNP, but, the reality was that to have any hope of governing, he'd have had to.

[As it turned out, the Labour seats added to the SNP's actually STILL wouldn't have been quite enough to get to the 'magic' 326 seat level, necessary for a voting majority and unassailability. This is because, ironically, the SNP enjoyed a landslide victory in Scotland by robbing Labour of seats in Scotland !]

So the need for a Conservative victory was especially important this time around !! But even so, Cameron has only a tiny majority. Factor in illnesses, deaths, Party defections, scandals requiring dismissals ... any or all of these may erode the majority into a minority within a year or two. (Or, for a vital Commons vote, it may not be possible to get every single Conservative MP to attend in order to vote !)

He has a workable Government, but it's possible it may not be capable of lasting for a full term under its own steam.

So, this is a victory, a much needed one, but it's flawed. Weakness of voting numbers makes it fragile.

We just have to hope that Cameron can get as much done as he needs to, as soon as possible, and that his luck doesn't run out.

You know, on polling day, I just think the British public didn't have the stomach to vote for Ed Miliband, the Labour leader. He came across as 'geeky', and it made for an odd media performance. Besides which ... his policies made it clear that he was driving his Party in the direction of more militantly extreme Socialism. Michael Foot tried that, in the 1980's .. and Labour remained unelectable until well into the 1990's .....

So anyway, we've had THREE Party leaders resign, after their failures to win power. Miliband resigned - so did Nigel Farage, for UKIP, and so did Nick Clegg, for the LibDems. I think I'm right in saying that for three Party leaders to resign in a single day is literally unheard of in British politics !

We live in interesting times !!