Kathianne
02-12-2015, 12:37 AM
Early days and always an exercise in futility to pick a front runner, but this NYT article has some wisdom:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/12/upshot/to-understand-scott-walkers-strength-look-at-his-donors.html?contentCollection=upshot&action=click&module=NextInCollection®ion=Footer&pgtype=article&abt=0002&abg=0
To Understand Scott Walker’s Strength, Look at His Donors
FEB. 11, 2015
The best way to see the threat that Scott Walker (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/w/scott_k_walker/index.html?inline=nyt-per), the Wisconsin governor, poses to Jeb Bush in the Republican presidential race is to look at Mr. Walker’s donors.
They extend far beyond Wisconsin, in large part because of the 2012 recall election that made Mr. Walker a nationwide conservative hero. Many of Mr. Walker’s biggest donors are deeply conservative, giving him an opportunity to emerge as an alternative to the more moderate Mr. Bush. They also include many small-money donors, a group that many national Republicans have struggled to attract.
Mr. Walker had always attracted like-minded conservative donors, but mostly from Wisconsin. The recall vastly expanded that fund-raising base because it was seen as a chance to beat back a union-led effort. He received some very large contributions, including seven donations of $250,000 each, thanks to Wisconsin’s rules for recall elections.
Mr. Walker’s recall coffers swelled with the help of some familiar Republican donors: Sheldon Adelson, the Nevada casino magnate ($250,000); Richard DeVos, an Amway co-founder and owner of the Orlando Magic basketball team ($250,000); and Bob Perry, the Texas home builder who died in 2013 ($490,000). Mr. Adelson helped sustain (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/10/us/politics/sheldon-adelson-a-billionaire-gives-gingrich-a-big-lift.html?pagewanted=all) asuper PAC (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/campaign_finance/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier) supporting Newt Gingrich’s 2012 campaign, while Foster Friess, a Wyoming investor who donated $114,600, helped bank (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/09/us/politics/foster-friess-a-deep-pocketed-santorum-super-pac-backer.html)roll (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/09/us/politics/foster-friess-a-deep-pocketed-santorum-super-pac-backer.html) asuper PAC (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/campaign_finance/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier) backing Rick Santorum’s presidential campaign that year.
...
All this suggests that there is considerable fund-raising room to the right of Mr. Bush during the so-called invisible primary, when candidates line up donors. Mr. Walker is considered one of the more conservative potential candidates, while Mr. Bush is considered a moderate among Republicans. Crowdpac (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/02/upshot/new-voter-guide-follows-the-money.html), which compiles ideological scores (https://www.crowdpac.com/elections/2016-presidential-election) of candidates, rated Mr. Walker at 7.8, while pegging Mr. Bush at 4.2. The only potential candidates with higher scores are Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. Because Crowdpac scores rely heavily on a politician’s donors, Mr. Walker’s existing base is solidly conservative.
Although it might be tempting to think that the recall donors shifted Mr. Walker’s score to the right, the data does not indicate a large change, said Adam Bonica, a Stanford political scientist and Crowdpac co-founder.
...
What especially sets Mr. Walker apart from many other Republican candidates is his ability to connect with small donors. Why would that matter when he can persuade wealthy people to make large donations? In the 2012 presidential election, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney raised roughly the same amount of money from individuals who gave at least $1,000.
But Mr. Obama had the money advantage because he could also tap a larger pot of money from small-dollar donors. Mr. Romney got just 12 percent, or $57.5 million, of his $470 million from people who gave less than $200, according to the Campaign Finance Institute (http://www.cfinst.org/pdf/federal/president/2012/Pres12Tables_YE12_AggIndivDonors.pdf). Mr. Obama’s campaign got $218 million in similarly sized contributions.
Of the $2.5 million raised by Mr. Walker from California and Texas last year, 35 percent came in contributions of less than $200. More than half of the money came in contributions of $500 or less. In his three governor’s elections, about one-third of Mr. Walker’s money came in donations of less than $200.
Competing with Democrats in small-dollar contributions has become more important for Republicans as the ease of giving money online has increased. Small-dollar contributions are also a sign of grass-roots support.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/12/upshot/to-understand-scott-walkers-strength-look-at-his-donors.html?contentCollection=upshot&action=click&module=NextInCollection®ion=Footer&pgtype=article&abt=0002&abg=0
To Understand Scott Walker’s Strength, Look at His Donors
FEB. 11, 2015
The best way to see the threat that Scott Walker (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/w/scott_k_walker/index.html?inline=nyt-per), the Wisconsin governor, poses to Jeb Bush in the Republican presidential race is to look at Mr. Walker’s donors.
They extend far beyond Wisconsin, in large part because of the 2012 recall election that made Mr. Walker a nationwide conservative hero. Many of Mr. Walker’s biggest donors are deeply conservative, giving him an opportunity to emerge as an alternative to the more moderate Mr. Bush. They also include many small-money donors, a group that many national Republicans have struggled to attract.
Mr. Walker had always attracted like-minded conservative donors, but mostly from Wisconsin. The recall vastly expanded that fund-raising base because it was seen as a chance to beat back a union-led effort. He received some very large contributions, including seven donations of $250,000 each, thanks to Wisconsin’s rules for recall elections.
Mr. Walker’s recall coffers swelled with the help of some familiar Republican donors: Sheldon Adelson, the Nevada casino magnate ($250,000); Richard DeVos, an Amway co-founder and owner of the Orlando Magic basketball team ($250,000); and Bob Perry, the Texas home builder who died in 2013 ($490,000). Mr. Adelson helped sustain (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/10/us/politics/sheldon-adelson-a-billionaire-gives-gingrich-a-big-lift.html?pagewanted=all) asuper PAC (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/campaign_finance/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier) supporting Newt Gingrich’s 2012 campaign, while Foster Friess, a Wyoming investor who donated $114,600, helped bank (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/09/us/politics/foster-friess-a-deep-pocketed-santorum-super-pac-backer.html)roll (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/09/us/politics/foster-friess-a-deep-pocketed-santorum-super-pac-backer.html) asuper PAC (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/campaign_finance/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier) backing Rick Santorum’s presidential campaign that year.
...
All this suggests that there is considerable fund-raising room to the right of Mr. Bush during the so-called invisible primary, when candidates line up donors. Mr. Walker is considered one of the more conservative potential candidates, while Mr. Bush is considered a moderate among Republicans. Crowdpac (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/02/upshot/new-voter-guide-follows-the-money.html), which compiles ideological scores (https://www.crowdpac.com/elections/2016-presidential-election) of candidates, rated Mr. Walker at 7.8, while pegging Mr. Bush at 4.2. The only potential candidates with higher scores are Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. Because Crowdpac scores rely heavily on a politician’s donors, Mr. Walker’s existing base is solidly conservative.
Although it might be tempting to think that the recall donors shifted Mr. Walker’s score to the right, the data does not indicate a large change, said Adam Bonica, a Stanford political scientist and Crowdpac co-founder.
...
What especially sets Mr. Walker apart from many other Republican candidates is his ability to connect with small donors. Why would that matter when he can persuade wealthy people to make large donations? In the 2012 presidential election, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney raised roughly the same amount of money from individuals who gave at least $1,000.
But Mr. Obama had the money advantage because he could also tap a larger pot of money from small-dollar donors. Mr. Romney got just 12 percent, or $57.5 million, of his $470 million from people who gave less than $200, according to the Campaign Finance Institute (http://www.cfinst.org/pdf/federal/president/2012/Pres12Tables_YE12_AggIndivDonors.pdf). Mr. Obama’s campaign got $218 million in similarly sized contributions.
Of the $2.5 million raised by Mr. Walker from California and Texas last year, 35 percent came in contributions of less than $200. More than half of the money came in contributions of $500 or less. In his three governor’s elections, about one-third of Mr. Walker’s money came in donations of less than $200.
Competing with Democrats in small-dollar contributions has become more important for Republicans as the ease of giving money online has increased. Small-dollar contributions are also a sign of grass-roots support.