Will Vermont start to slide soon?

[tailfins]

Vermont seems to be having a "California scenario". The GOP is now almost absent in VT with the one statewide GOP official wanting to turning the state GOP into a Democrat clone. Vermont's unemployment rate is 4.1%, but they have legislated a single-payer health system that hasn't been seriously implemented yet. I'm NOT writing this under the notion of supporting Democrats, but rather the idea that something OTHER than state policies affect state prosperity. Will Vermont continue having a good economy or when do you think the wheels will start to come off? One thing I do know about Vermont is that pay rates are worse than New Hampshire.


http://www.timesargus.com/article/20130417/THISJUSTIN/704179933

[fj1200]

Not sure that pay rates are the best metric but I'd look to demographics and the overall business climate of VT especially against its neighbors.

Douglas: Vermont’s biggest problems come down to demographics, affordability (http://vtdigger.org/2012/10/04/douglas-vermonts-biggest-problems-come-down-to-demographics-affordability/)

Former Gov. Jim Douglas says the biggest challenge facing Vermont’s economy isn’t high taxes, health care reform, government bureaucracy, or any other hot topic in this season’s gubernatorial race, but instead a long term demographic trend, which indicates that Vermont’s labor force is steadily shrinking.“Asked a number of times what the greatest challenge is facing Vermont … I always answer without hesitation, because I think it’s something we should take seriously: and that’s demographics,” said Douglas at an annual meeting for Associated Industries of Vermont, a manufacturing industry group.
“If we don’t have people, don’t have human capital here, then nothing’s going to be very successful,” Douglas said. “We have the lowest birth rate in America, we have net domestic out migration for the last recorded year. …We have a declining population in our public schools.”
One solution Douglas suggested highlights another problem. To fix this demographic issue, he said, Vermont needs to become a “more affordable place to live and work.”
“We’ve got to keep our eye on the challenge of demographics and the challenge of affordability, to do what we can to improve life in our state,” he said in his brief keynote speech.